Duma elections. Elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation. The procedure for holding elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation
On March 18, the next, the seventh in the history of our country, national elections of the head of state took place in Russia. next big election federal significance(unless, of course, during this time something extraordinary happens to the newly elected president and his early re-elections are not needed), elections to the lower house of the Russian parliament - the State Duma - will have to become. Many are already wondering when these elections will take place, so we give brief reference about them. Elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation - in what year will the next elections to the Russian parliament take place, is it possible now to talk about the prospects for its composition.
How do elections to the State Duma take place and when were the last elections held
The State Duma in modern Russia (leave alone the experience hundred years ago) appeared 25 years ago, in 1993, with the adoption of the current Constitution. The first elections were held on December 12, 1993. Initially, the term of office of the Duma was four years, but the Constitution contained a special amendment regarding the first composition of the Duma - its term of office was two years and expired at the end of 1995.
The two-year term of office of the first composition of the modern Duma did not appear by chance. There were several reasons for this, one of which was that the authors of the Constitution considered it desirable that the Duma be elected shortly before the next presidential election. Thus, firstly, it was possible to objectively understand the mood of the people six months before the election of the head of state, and this is a plus for all participants in the presidential election. Secondly, the elected president understood what kind of parliament he would have to work with throughout his entire term.
Thus, in December 1995, the second composition of the Duma was elected, and in the summer of 1996, presidential elections were held.
The term of office of both the State Duma and the President of Russia, according to the original text of the Constitution, was four years. Elections have always been held almost simultaneously.
In 2008, the first serious amendments in its history were made to the Constitution, and the terms of office of the State Duma and the President of Russia were extended. Moreover, for the State Duma, the period was increased by a year - and for the head of state by two years - up to six years.
Explaining this step Russian authorities talked about the desire to get away from the provision that was originally provided by the Constitution. If in the early 1990s it was convenient for parliamentary elections and presidential elections to be held simultaneously, 15 years later it was decided that this would lead to excessive politicization of society and it would be better if these elections were as far apart as possible in time relative to each other. .
Latest on this moment Elections to the State Duma in Russia were held in September 2016. AT this moment the seventh convocation of the modern State Duma is working, and this is the second convocation, the term of office of which is five years.
When will the next elections to the State Duma in Russia take place?
Thus, the next elections to the State Duma Russian Federation will have to pass in September 2021 when the term of office of the current Duma expires.
Of course, the elections in 2021 will be held if the seventh composition of the Duma is finalized. Purely theoretically, according to the Constitution, the Duma can terminate its powers ahead of schedule if it is dissolved by the president. The Constitution gives the head of state such a right in the following cases:
- if the State Duma rejects the candidacy of the Chairman of the Government (Prime Minister) three times, which the President submits for approval;
- if the State Duma twice within three months will express no confidence in the Government of Russia.
It is clear that such situations in the conditions of modern Russia are pure fantasy. Even in the 1990s, when the State Duma was really independent and oppositional, it never came to its dissolution by the president, all conflicts were somehow resolved without extreme measures. Now, when the Duma is absolutely obedient to the Presidential Administration, there is no doubt that its next composition will be finalized before the end of its term of office, all the more so. We can say with full confidence that the next elections to the State Duma will be held in 2021, in September.
What could be the next composition of the State Duma
Talking about the personal composition of the future Duma, which will be elected in the fall of 2021, is rather pointless at the moment. Three and a half years remain before these elections, and during this time the political situation in Russia can change very noticeably.
Even if we imagine the most conservative picture and assume that the same parties that are present in it today will enter the Duma, we should not forget at what age the leaders of some parties will be in 2021.
So, the head of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Gennady Zyuganov, will be 77 years old in 2021 (and by the end of the term of this Duma - 82). The leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, will be 75 years old in 2021, and 80 years old by the end of the term of the eighth convocation of the Duma. Even the relatively young against their background, Sergei Mironov, who heads the faction “ Fair Russia”, in 2021 it will be 68 years old, and by 2026 - 73 years old.
Obviously, at least at the level of the leaders of the parties traditionally elected to parliament, we will have to face serious changes.
It is also not a fact that the Presidential Administration will be able to form the most loyal and obedient Duma in 2021. A lot can change in 3.5 years, and what political forces will have sufficient weight in society to get into parliament in 2021, now one can only guess.
The seventh composition of the modern State Duma of Russia was elected in September 2016 and officially began to work in October of the same year. The term of office of the Duma is five years, provided that it is not dissolved by the president of the country (which can only be done in individual cases and has never happened in the history of modern Russia). Thus, the seventh squad as such will work until the fall of 2021. Nevertheless, by-elections to the Duma will be held this year in several regions of Russia, which so far different reasons do not have their own deputy in the lower house of the Russian parliament. Elections to the State Duma in September 2018 in Russia - the date of voting in which regions the by-elections of deputies will be held.
Date of elections to the State Duma in 2018
By-elections of deputies will be held on September 9, 2018 - on a single voting day, which traditionally falls at the beginning of September.On the same day, all other elections scheduled for this year will be held in the country, with the exception of the presidential one, which takes place in March.
These are elections of governors of several regions (including Moscow), elections of deputies of several regional parliaments and elections of deputies of city parliaments in a number of cities of the country.
By-elections of deputies of the State Duma will be held in six regions of Russia:
- Amur region,
- Kaliningrad region,
- Nizhny Novgorod Region,
- Samara Region,
- Saratov region,
- Tver region.
Elections to the State Duma in September 2018 in the Amur Region
The Duma deputy from the 71st Amur single-mandate constituency was Ivan Abramov from the LDPR party. On June 13 of this year, the Duma released him from the mandate - Abramov is one of the contenders for the post of senator from the Amur region.If a former deputy becomes a senator of the Federation Council, formally this means an increase - from the lower house of parliament, Abramov will go to the higher one.
In order to fill the vacant seat of a deputy, by-elections of a deputy will be held in the 71st constituency in September.
Elections of a State Duma deputy in September 2018 in the Kaliningrad region
In the 98th Central single-mandate constituency Kaliningrad region the Duma deputy has been formally absent since May 10 of this year. In fact, Aleksey Silanov ceased to perform the functions of a deputy even earlier - in April.Silanov became the head of Kaliningrad after the former head of the city, Alexander Yaroshuk, resigned early.
Since there are no direct elections of the mayor in Kaliningrad, the new head was elected by local deputies. In order for the seat of the deputy from the 98th district not to be empty, and for the inhabitants of the region to have their own representative in the federal parliament, on September 9, 2018, by-elections to the Duma will be held here.
Elections of a State Duma deputy in September 2018 in the Nizhny Novgorod region
The deputy from the 129th Nizhny Novgorod single-mandate constituency has not been in the Duma since January 19 this year. In Nizhny Novgorod there was a story similar to the one that happened a little later in Kaliningrad. Two days earlier, on January 17, the former deputy from the 129th district, Vladimir Panov, became the mayor of Nizhny Novgorod.Panov was also elected by the local Nizhny Novgorod Duma, since there are no direct elections of the head of the city in Nizhny Novgorod.
According to rumors, Panov asked to be relieved of his mandate as a deputy of the Duma even before he was formally appointed head of the Lower.
Elections of a State Duma deputy in September 2018 in the Samara region
On the same day that the Duma dismissed the deputy from the Amur Region, the deputy from the 158th Samara single-mandate constituency, Nadezhda Kolesnikova, was also dismissed from her mandate.On June 13 of this year, Kolesnikova ceased to be a member of the Duma. According to rumors, she was offered a place in Russian ministry enlightenment.
Elections of a State Duma deputy in September 2018 in the Saratov region
In the Saratov region, two deputies of the State Duma are missing at once.Firstly, a year ago, on June 17, 2017, Oleg Grishchenko, a deputy from the 163rd Saratov single-mandate constituency, died. Since it was too late to call by-elections in September at that time, the district was left without a deputy until September 2018.
Secondly, in October 2017, Mikhail Isaev, a deputy from the 165th Balashov single-mandate constituency, became an interim, and then was elected mayor of Saratov.
Elections of a State Duma deputy in September 2018 in the Tver region
In October 2017, on the same day that Mikhail Isaev was released from the deputy mandate, Vladimir Vasiliev, who was sent by the President of Russia to lead the Republic of Dagestan as acting head of the region, ceased to be a deputy.Vasiliev was a deputy from the 180th Zavolzhsky single-mandate constituency of the Tver region.
This election has become unique in its way. Many political analysts agreed that the 2016 campaign became a kind of “stress test” for the entire political system in Russia.
And now we can say that the test was successfully passed. It's about not even about who won and who got more votes. As never before, attention was paid to the electoral political processes themselves.
However, first a little about the numbers.
"Four parties are entering the State Duma:" United Russia"(44.5%), the Liberal Democratic Party (15.3%), the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (14.9%)," Just Russia "(8.1%)", - said the general director of VTsIOM Valery Fedorov on the air of the Rossiya 1 TV channel.
Also, according to a poll at the exit from the polling stations, "Communists of Russia" are gaining 2.6% of the vote, "Rodina" - 2.3% of the vote, the Russian Party of Pensioners "For Justice" - 2%, "Party of Growth" - 1.8% , "Parnassus" - 1.2%, "Green" - 0.8%, "Civil Platform" - 0.3%, "Civil Force" - 0.2%.
Also according to the Foundation public opinion, United Russia will have 48.7 percent of the vote, the Liberal Democratic Party - 14.2 percent, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation - 16.3 percent, and A Just Russia - 7.6 percent.
Note that the final data will be available after counting all ballots in all regions of the country.
According to the results of processing 10% of the final protocols, in the elections to the State Duma, United Russia is gaining 45.95% of the vote, the Liberal Democratic Party - 17.4%, the Communist Party - 16.76%, the SR - 6.36%, the CEC reported.
Non-parliamentary parties "Rodina", "Civic Platform" and "Party of Growth" pass to the State Duma in single-mandate districts at the time of counting 8.00% of the protocols, receiving one seat each, according to the data of the CEC of Russia.
"People have shown a civil position. The turnout is not the highest it was in the previous campaign, but it is high... We know that people live not easy, there are many problems, but the result is what it is. It is safe to say that United Russia won the majority," the President of Russia said.
"Preliminary results, according to which United Russia is gaining an absolute majority in the new State Duma, testify to the political maturity of the Russian civil society", Putin said.
He added that “although it is difficult and difficult for the people, the people voted for United Russia. The party’s work is not complete without controversial issues, but apart from it, no one solves the country’s main problems better. United Russia accurately performs that function for which the party was created," the head of state explained.
"The result is good, our party will have an absolute majority, but what kind of majority it is will be determined as a result of the vote count," said Prime Minister and head of the majority party Dmitry Medvedev.
In turn, the Secretary of the General Council of "United Russia" Sergei Neverov said that people supported the course towards the independence and self-sufficiency of the country, towards stability. "It was this support that was reflected in the results announced by sociologists and the Central Election Commission," he said.
The LDPR recognizes the results of the elections to the State Duma and evaluates the elections positively, party leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky said. "Of course, we recognize the elections and evaluate them positively," he said. Zhirinovsky also noted that "certain violations took place," but they are not significant.
The Just Russia party also stated that it recognizes the results of the elections to the State Duma. "In general, I believe that the elections to the State Duma of the 7th convocation took place. The Just Russia party has no reason to question the results," said party leader Sergei Mironov .
The leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Gennady Zyuganov on the TV channel "Russia-24" said that the supporters of the party intend to hold a series of actions following the results of the last elections to the State Duma. “We will not give our votes. Actions are scheduled for September 19-20 in support of fair and decent elections everywhere," Gennady Zyuganov grumbles. However, it is with such wording that he constantly grumbles - which does not prevent the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and personally Zyuganov from sitting in parliament after each election, receiving significant deputy salaries.
"United Russia" won a majority in 79 out of 89 single-mandate constituencies, the Liberal Democratic Party - in four, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation - only in two. Candidates of "A Just Russia", "Motherland", "Civic Platform" and the Party of Growth have one mandate each," the CEC said. , referring to the data of the state automated system "Vybory".
For example, Sergei Markov noted the high turnout in the Far East: “There are two reasons for the higher turnout. There are many new small parties, that's why their voters go to the polls. And citizens are more supportive of power after the Western attack on Putin, after the catastrophe in Ukraine and after Crimea.”
"The results of the elections were expected. The pattern of the campaign was such that single-mandate candidates pulled the campaign. Those who had a sufficient number of strong single-mandate members to close a certain number of constituencies had a chance, and those who did not, could show as many videos as they wanted and the company in news on the Internet: voters do not like electoral schizophrenia, when it is necessary to vote for a person from one party, and for a brand from another,” said political scientist Alexei Chadaev.
“Small non-parliamentary parties had chances, of course, but simply no one understood this drawing of the election campaign, which says that, firstly, single-member candidates are locomotives, and secondly, the local agenda dominates the federal one. how to equip Russia, the planet, Ukraine, Syria, but about how to equip the yard, the entrance, the neighboring school, and so on,” Chadayev said.
"Our glamorous party, stuffed with all sorts of old new parties, was not ready for this, which the result showed," the expert summed up.
"In turn, in general, the system and players were updated. Love for the country and patriotism are today for the voter important aspects. The Liberal Democratic Party improved its result; confirmed its status as a parliamentary party "Fair Russia"; a decent result was shown by the Motherland party and small parties, which distributed among themselves the votes, let's say, of the protest vote. Representatives of these parties will end up in parliament as winners in single-mandate constituencies," political analyst Aleksey Martynov explained.
Dmitry Abzalov, Vice-President of the Center for Strategic Communications, also commented on the level of turnout and the course of electoral procedures: “Turnout is still quite typical, which is due to several factors. On the one hand, there are single-mandate members, which increases interest in the election campaign, on the other hand, we do not have any internal anguish in the political campaign, such internal protest activity, so the interest there is not so high.”
The research director of the Institute for Socio-Economic and political problems" (ISEPI) Alexander Pozhalov. According to him, "during the first hours of voting at local time in many regions of Siberia and Far East voter turnout was higher than in 2011.”
In general, the slogan under which the current campaign was held is legitimacy, honesty, and transparency. Already now, by the fact that there were fewer violations during the voting, we can say that the Russian electoral system qualitatively evolved. No matter how pathetic it may sound, democracy won in these elections to the State Duma.
This is especially important, since now the country needs the most legitimate government. At the same time, the power that the people consciously chose. By the way, that is why the role of single-mandate deputies has grown so much in the framework of the current campaign. And a large percentage of the votes were received by those who directly met with voters. What Vyacheslav Volodin spoke about at a meeting with political scientists - about the court as a unit of political space, has fully come true.
In addition to the global agenda, voters also have specific, local problems that they want to solve with the help of the authorities they elect. Meetings with voters also became a "stress test". But not for the entire political system, but directly for the candidates. Who successfully "tested" - will show the results of the vote.
Another interesting fact. Even the Crimean Tatars in the elections to the State Duma show "unprecedented turnout, demonstrating full solidarity with Russian people". This was stated by the Deputy Prime Minister of the government of the region Ruslan Balbek to Life." The national factor was actively used by external forces for 2.5 years as a destabilizing one. The Crimean Tatars took this as a challenge to themselves and are showing unprecedented activity in the elections today. The turnout among them will be high, for 25 years of such turnout in elections among Crimean Tatars never happened," he explained.
"The elections are held openly and legitimately. Judging by the reports of the Central Election Commission, no serious violations have been recorded. Equal conditions for competition have been created for all parties participating in the elections," the press service of the movement quotes co-chairman of the Central Headquarters of the ONF Alexander Brechalov.
In general, already now a number of politicians and experts note high level open and direct competition between parties and candidates. In general, this year's campaign itself was as public as possible. And the winner is the one who has shown himself to be a competent specialist.
According to Sergei Neverov, United Russia considers it a priority to hold legitimate elections to the State Duma, and not the number of votes received on voting day.” And such a vision of political processes is relevant not only for United Russia, but also for any political party that wants to win this season.
There is no task to win at any cost, moreover, "at any cost" now you will not win. Violations are monitored as carefully as possible.
Non-electoral technologies are detected promptly, and they are followed by a tough reaction. The reaction, at the same time, is, again, as public as possible, which hurts the reputation of parties and violating candidates among voters going to vote.
So the co-leader of the movement for the protection of the rights of voters "Golos" Grigory Melkonyants, has already told the media that although all the problems have not been completely eradicated, "an improvement in the general climate is noted."
"The election climate is a little better than it was in 2011. "Of course, the position of the CEC, which the CEC broadcast to the regions, was heard by someone, but there are isolated cases," he concluded.
According to the Director General of the Center for Political Information Alexei Mukhin, “The CEC is in very close contact with law enforcement and the prosecutor's office, and in this respect we can be calm.” At the same time, the political scientist specifically noted: “Knowing a little Ella Alexandrovna Pamfilova, I believe that this will happen. The CEC controls the situation quite tightly, including in the regions. Conducts, as far as I know, significant work to prevent violations. Many candidates are very active, many have already made statements that they have recorded certain violations. This, of course, is also very quickly understood. Literally in live. I think that such an operational situation, which we are now observing, allows us to say that in general, these elections can be considered not only held, but their results will be legitimate.”
Wherein important point is that some global, systematic violations was not found. This is said by both Russian and foreign experts and observers. For example, a member of the Public Chamber, Lyubov Dukhanina, noted in an interview that “candidates for deputies from all parties have done real job with voters, offered their programs. And today people really have the opportunity to make a choice. But most importantly, the entire election campaign was really open. And there was a lot of information this year. Now the most important thing is that the elections are fair and legitimate.”
Confirms the words of Dukhanina and well-known TV journalist Yevgeny Revenko, who voted in Voronezh. According to him, “people in Voronezh actively went to the polls. Nowhere have any significant violations been recorded that could affect the will of citizens. And United Russia, like no one else, is interested in fair, clean, transparent elections, so that no one has any doubts about the legitimacy of this vote.”
Vladimir Vasiliev, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma, head of the United Russia faction, also noted the increased openness and competitiveness of the current campaign. He stated that "today's elections are being held in an open and competitive atmosphere." “14 parties are fighting for the mandates of State Duma deputies - twice as many as in the last elections in 2011. Equal conditions were created for all participants so that they could present their programs, and people could evaluate them, compare them with each other,” Vasilyev said, emphasizing that “now much will depend on the choice of each of us, on our civic position and indifference."
"Our party set the task of legitimacy. A lot has been done for this - we held a preliminary vote, we were able to invite many representatives of civil society into our ranks, who brought with them the respect of the people. And we also reduced the number of candidate governors, so we are convinced that that these results and elections are competitive and legitimate," he said.
"We set the task of renewing the Party and meeting the expectations of society. This surprises some, but we intend to seriously change the situation. It is a huge responsibility to contact people and ask the best of them to come and take a seat in parliament. But we must answer for it," the politician said.
"United Russia" in the pre-election period monitored the new laws. We are the only ones who took the laws on forestry, land, trade and started monitoring together with people. This is already yielding results: the share of locally produced goods in the chains has increased. There are qualitative changes in the interests of the people," he concluded.
At the same time, citizens make a choice, and they do it very actively. According to the head of the Petersburg Politics Foundation, Mikhail Vinogradov, “the turnout of voters in the elections to the State Duma of the seventh convocation refuted the pessimistic forecasts of some analysts who predicted extremely low activity Russians."
Agree with him CEO Center for Political Information Aleksey Mukhin, who stated that “as electoral activity approaches in central Russia, in the western regions, especially in the south, turnout will increase. And it will reach more than 50 percent.”
At the same time, work to increase legitimacy and competitiveness was done not only by United Russia, but also by other political parties. For example, they actively developed the social agenda of the SR and the Communist Party. In general, within the framework of the current campaign social issues have been a popular topic for so many political movements.
As for the victory of United Russia, one must understand that this is also a huge responsibility of the party to the whole country. However, the EP candidates did a great job, from the primaries to the final voting day. As part of these procedures, really competent people, professionals, got into the lists of United Russia. Which in these lists was elected by the people at a preliminary vote.
At the same time, United Russia did not field its candidates in 19 single-mandate constituencies. And this was done consciously, within the framework of open political competition. Because these constituencies already have strong, professional opposition candidates.
In general, the level of competition has increased in the current election season. The ballot lists 14 parties instead of the seven allowed to vote last year. That is, a variety of social strata can receive political representation in the State Duma Russian society, and importantly, the political spectrum of parties covers all social strata.
Experts predict that the new State Duma will be a space for constant political dialogue. United Russia is ready to speak with constructive opposition and, moreover, to listen to the opinion of this opposition. Such a dialogue is conditioned by the very logic of the current electoral processes and the choice of citizens. It was those who were ready to speak competently and constructively both with the electorate and with competitors in the political struggle who entered the Duma.
In general, positioning itself as "Putin's and Medvedev's parties" played a separate and important role in the victory of ER. The ratings of the first persons of the state also increased the level of public confidence in United Russia.
We can say that the current campaign was somewhat calmer than the previous ones in terms of crises, scandals and violations. And this testifies to the development and "maturing" of the political system in Russia as a whole.
On September 21, 1993, Russian President B. Yeltsin issued a decree "On a phased constitutional reform in the Russian Federation", which ordered "to interrupt the exercise of legislative, administrative and control functions by the Congress of People's Deputies and the Supreme Council of the Russian Federation." This decree put into effect the Regulations on the Election of Deputies of the State Duma.
On December 12, 1993, ELECTIONS TO THE FIRST STATE DUMA of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, the new federal legislative body of the country, took place.
For the first time, elections were held under a mixed - majoritarian-proportional system / before that - only in single-member constituencies /. Half of the 450 deputies were elected in 225 single-mandate constituencies, the other half of the deputies - in a single federal constituency on party lists.
91 public associations had the right to participate in the elections. 35 associations expressed their desire to fight for deputy mandates. Lists of candidates for registration were submitted by 21 electoral associations. The Central Election Commission registered lists of 13 of them. 8 associations have overcome the 5% threshold, which gives the right to receive mandates.
On December 12, 1993, 444 deputies were elected: 225 - one by one federal district and 219 - in single-mandate constituencies. Elections were not held in five constituencies, in one /Chechen Republic/ - they were not held.
The turnout was 54.7 percent. voters at the required threshold of 25 percent.
The favorite of the campaign - the electoral bloc "Russia's Choice" received 15.51 percent. votes of voters; including single-mandate members - 66 seats in parliament /top three: Yegor Gaidar, Sergei Kovalev, Ella Pamfilova/;
The Liberal Democratic Party won a sensational victory on the party lists, receiving 22.92 percent. votes of voters; 64 mandates in total /Vladimir Zhirinovsky, Viktor Kobelev, Vyacheslav Marychev/;
The Communist Party was supported by 12.40 percent. voters; 48 mandates in total /Gennady Zyuganov, Vitaly Sevastyanov, Viktor Ilyukhin/;
Agrarian Party of Russia /APR/ - 7.99 percent. votes, 33 mandates /Mikhail Lapshin, Alexander Zaveryukha, Alexander Davydov/;
Block: Yavlinsky-Boldyrev-Lukin - 7.86 percent. votes, 27 mandates /Grigory Yavlinsky, Yuri Boldyrev, Vladimir Lukin/;
The political movement "Women of Russia" - 8.13 percent. votes, 23 mandates /Alevtina Fedulova, Ekaterina Lakhova, Natalya Gundareva/;
Party of Russian Unity and Accord /PRES/ - 6.73%. votes, 19 mandates /Sergei Shakhrai, Alexander Shokhin, Konstantin Zatulin/;
Democratic Party of Russia /DPR/ - 5.52 percent. votes, 14 seats /Nikolai Travkin, Stanislav Govorukhin, Oleg Bogomolov/.
In the First Duma, 8 factions were registered, as well as 2 deputy groups / at least 35 deputies /: the LDPR factions / 59 deputies /, Russia's Choice / 73 /, Communist Party / 45 /, Women of Russia / 23 /, APR / 55/, "YABLOKO" /28/, PRES /30/, DPR /15/; deputy groups "New regional policy" /66/ and "Liberal Democratic Union on December 12" /35/.
ELECTIONS TO THE STATE DUMA OF THE SECOND CONVENTION on December 17, 1995 were held in accordance with the Federal Laws "On Basic Guarantees of the Electoral Rights of Citizens of the Russian Federation" and "On Elections of Deputies of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation".
The elections were held according to the majority-proportional system.
Voter turnout was high. 64.7 percent participated in the elections. voters or more than 69.5 million people, which is 11 million more than in the 1993 elections. The required voter turnout threshold is 25 percent.
The peculiarity of these elections was that all 450 deputies were elected at once.
From 269 public associations, who had the right to participate in the elections, 69 parties, movements and blocs put forward their lists of candidates. 43 associations participated in the elections, and only 4 of them managed to overcome the required 5% barrier.
The Communist Party of the Russian Federation became the winner of the campaign - 22.3 percent. votes; a total of 157 mandates /Gennady Zyuganov, Svetlana Goryacheva, Amangeldy Tuleev/;
The party in power was represented by the movement "Our Home - Russia" /NDR/ - 10.13%. votes; 55 seats /Viktor Chernomyrdin, Nikita Mikhalkov, Lev Rokhlin/;
Public association "YABLOKO" - 6.89 percent. votes; 45 mandates /Grigory Yavlinsky, Vladimir Lukin, Tatyana Yarygina/.
The winning associations formed parliamentary factions, and deputies who were not included in the factions formed deputy groups /numbering at least 35 people/: Communist Party factions /146 people/, NDR /66/, LDPR /51/, YABLOKO /46/; deputy groups "Russian Regions" /43/, "People's Power" /38/ and the Agrarian Deputy Group /36/.
ELECTIONS TO THE STATE DUMA OF THE THIRD CONVOCATION were held on December 19, 1999. Elections were held according to the majority-proportional system. The turnout was 61.85 percent. or 66.8 million people with the required 25 percent.
37 all-Russian political public associations out of 141 announced their intention to participate in the elections. 26 were included in the ballots, 6 associations overcame the required 5% barrier:
The electoral bloc "Interregional Movement "Unity" / "BEAR" / - 23.32 percent of the vote; 73 mandates / Sergei Shoigu, Alexander Karelin, Alexander Gurov /;
The electoral bloc "Fatherland - All Russia" - 13.33 percent. votes; 68 mandates /Evgeny Primakov, Yuri Luzhkov, Vladimir Yakovlev/;
The electoral bloc "Union of Right Forces" - 8.52 percent. votes; 29 mandates /Sergey Kiriyenko, Boris Nemtsov, Irina Khakamada/;
In eight single-mandate constituencies, the elections were declared invalid /repeated elections were held on March 26, 2000/, in the Chechen single-mandate constituency, elections were held later - on August 20, 2000.
441 out of 450 people were elected deputies.
6 factions and 3 deputy groups were registered in the Duma: the Communist Party factions / 86 deputies /, Unity / 84 /, Fatherland - All Russia / 44 /, Union of Right Forces / 32 /, YABLOKO / 19 / , LDPR /16/; parliamentary groups People's Deputy" / 62 / and " Regions of Russia" / 44 /, Agro-industrial deputy group / 42 /.
ELECTIONS TO THE STATE DUMA OF THE FOURTH CONVOCATION were held on December 7, 2003. Elections were held according to the majority-proportional system. 55.75 percent took part in the elections. voters or 60.7 million citizens.
44 political parties and 20 public organizations had the right to participate in the elections. 39 parties and 1 social organization. A total of 18 parties and 5 electoral blocs participated in the campaign. The 5% threshold was overcome by 3 political parties and 1 electoral bloc.
The party "United Russia" won a convincing victory - 37.57%. votes; 223 mandates in total /Boris Gryzlov, Sergei Shoigu, Yuri Luzhkov, Mintimer Shaimiev/;
The sensation of this election campaign was the success of the Rodina bloc (People's Patriotic Union) created on the eve of the elections - 9.02 percent of the vote; 37 mandates / Sergey Glazyev, Dmitry Rogozin, Valentin Varennikov /;
The failure of the Democrats was a surprise - neither Yabloko /4.30 percent/ nor the Union of Right Forces /3.97 percent/ made it into the State Duma.
On December 7, 447 out of 450 deputies were elected: 225 in the federal constituency and 222 in single-mandate districts. In three single-mandate constituencies, the elections were declared invalid, since the majority of voters there voted against all candidates.
Four factions were created in the Duma of the fourth convocation: United Russia /300 deputies/, Communist Party of the Russian Federation /52/, LDPR /36/, Rodina /36/.
ELECTIONS TO THE STATE DUMA OF THE FIFTH CONVOCATION were held on December 2, 2007. Elections for the first time were held according to the proportional system - according to the federal lists of candidates nominated by political parties. The entry barrier was raised from 5 percent. up to 7 percent; the formation of electoral blocs was not envisaged; the column "against all" and the threshold for turnout in elections were cancelled.
15 parties had the right to take part in the elections, 11 of them were able to use this right. These are the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party, United Russia, Just Russia, Union of Right Forces, Yabloko, Patriots of Russia, the Democratic Party, Civil Force, the Agrarian Party and the Party of Social Justice.
According to the voting results, four parties overcame the 7% threshold. "United Russia" / 1 candidate was included in the federal part of the list - Vladimir PUTIN / 64.30 percent. votes /, Communist Party / Gennady ZYUGANOV, Zhores ALFEROV, Nikolai KHARITONOV / - 11.57 percent; LDPR /Vladimir ZHIRINOVSKY, Andrei LUGOVOI, Igor Lebedev/ - 8.14 percent; "Fair Russia" /Sergey MIRONOV, Svetlana Goryacheva/ - 7.74 percent. The remaining parties fell short of 2.5 percent.
At the time of the elections, there were about 109 million 146 thousand voters in the country. About 70 million citizens /63.78 percent/ took part in the voting. It was the highest turnout for the previous three Duma election campaigns.
Four factions were formed in the Duma of the fifth convocation: "United Russia" / 315 deputies - a constitutional majority /, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation / 57 /, the Liberal Democratic Party / 40 /, "Fair Russia" / until 2009 - "Fair Russia: Motherland / Pensioners, Life / 38 /.
The Center for Scientific Political Thought and Ideology (Sulakshin Center) carried out a mathematical reconstruction of the true, scientifically substantiated voting results.
Mathematics provides a way to prove not only the very fact of falsification, but also its scale, nature and organization of the management of the falsification process, and, in addition, allows you to reconstruct the true results of voting; results both in terms of turnout and in terms of the number of votes actually received by parties and candidates;
I.Analysis Methodology
The initial data for the analysis are data officially published on the website of the CEC of Russia for all more than 95,000 polling stations.
The methodology for revealing the truth of elections is based on the following principles.
If the distribution deviates from the gaussoid, then there was interference in the elections (Fig. 2).
Elections to the State Duma 2016 (party list)
Fig.2 The deviation from the gaussoid in favor of the candidates (parties) from the government - United Russia - is shaded in black. The ratio of the black area under the curve and the white area under the gaussoid gives the falsification coefficient
Citizens' preferences of different parties or candidates in "fair" elections do not depend on turnout. If you see a Gaussian “honest” cloud of votes, but on increasing turnout, an increase in votes in favor of a candidate and a party from power and a fall in votes for the opposition, then this is clearly a falsification, which is clearly seen in the example of the 2016 elections in the Penza region (Fig. 3).
Fig. 3 An honest “cloud” of the opposition is higher than the “cloud” of the United Russia party. The rest is thrown in and attributed in favor of the United Russia party and at a loss to the opposition
If at many polling stations in the region the result of the party in power is the same with an accuracy of hundredths of a percent, then this means that the command was given to “get” just such a result. This is especially clearly seen in the Saratov region for the United Russia party at 100 polling stations - the result is 62.15%.
If the falsification coefficients for the regions of Russia coincide with statistical accuracy both for the falsification of the results on the party list and on the majoritarian districts, then this proves centralized x falsification management character.
II. The scale of fraud in the elections of the State Duma 2016
The official results of the elections on September 18, 2016 to the State Duma, published by the CEC of Russia, are as follows.
Turnout according to the CEC of Russia was 47.88%.
Based on the methodology of mathematical reconstruction outlined above, we analyze the results of voting in the elections of the State Duma of the Russian Federation on September 18, 2016 and identify their real results.
As can be seen from the above data, the Gaussian "cloud" for both party list voting and majoritarian districts indicates that the "fair" turnout of real voting is 35%, but not the 47.88% recorded by the Russian Central Election Commission.
Thus, based on the scientific methodology of mathematical reconstruction of the analysis of the voting results in the elections of the State Duma of the Russian Federation on September 18, 2016 first conclusion is as follows: in the organic Gaussian cloud of votes, the average turnout was 35% for both types of voting. Increase in official turnout to 47.88%, recorded by the CEC of Russia is unreliable and is the result of falsifications, which is clearly seen on the right wing of the Gaussian distribution, which goes beyond the boundaries of the pure Gaussian curve.
Second . From Fig. 4 - the results of voting on party lists and Fig. 5 - the results of voting on majoritarian districts, it can be seen that in the organic Gaussian cloud, that is, with truly fair elections, the United Russia party received fewer votes than the opposition.
Third . On the right wing of the results of voting on party lists and majoritarian districts (see Figures 4 and 5), there are clear, unambiguous signs of falsification - "picks" at turnouts that are multiples of 5% and 10%. A particularly outstanding "pick" - at 95% turnout is recorded for the "United Russia" party.
Fourth . The left wing of the organic gaussoid can be clearly traced at small turnouts, and this makes it possible to reproduce the right wing symmetrically as well. From here it becomes possible to calculate the true number of "honest" votes cast in the elections, and the number of votes assigned, falsified.
Let's evaluate the election results for the United Russia party by simply comparing the areas under the gaussoid curves and the falsified long right wing. The evaluation results are shown in Table 1.
Assessment of the true outcome for the United Russia party
The coincidence of falsification coefficients for party lists and majoritarian elections for the United Russia party is not accidental. This indicates that the campaign of falsification was under a single management and with a single goal. The same tasks were set - “bars” of the result.
Instead of 343 seats in the State Duma, according to the official total, the real total for the United Russia party is 134 seats.
The falsified 209 mandates handed over to the United Russia party are in fact in a state of “seizure of power and appropriation of power”, which is prohibited by the Constitution of the Russian Federation and the Criminal Code of Russia.
On fig. Figure 6 clearly shows how much the United Russia party conceded to the opposition in both types of voting in a more or less adequate turnout area.
Rice. 6. In reality, United Russia lost to the opposition
As can be seen from the fig. 6 data, in the field of unfalsified results, the United Russia party lost to the opposition by about a third of the seats. A complete falsified bacchanalia for the United Russia party to the detriment of the opposition parties is observed in the right wing of the graph.
The next regularity that helps to uncover falsification is the law of independence from the turnout of preference for a particular candidate by the electorate (Fig. 7).
Rice. 7. It is theoretically clear that voter preferences should not depend on turnout
If the distribution has a deviation from the horizontal in the angle of plus (from left to right upwards), then this indicates falsification in the form of an addition of votes. If there is a deviation from the horizontal in minus (from left to right down) - then this is falsification, on the contrary, in the form of theft of votes.
This methodological approach makes it possible to reveal the amount of falsification in voting for parties and their candidates in all subjects of the Federation.
A quantitative measure of the degree of falsification is determined by the slope of the distribution curve - the coefficient of falsification. If it is positive, then this is a falsification in favor of the corresponding party or candidate, votes are attributed to him. If negative, then, on the contrary, falsification at a loss, votes in this case are stolen.
On fig. 8 (Voronezh region) shows a typical and almost standard form of curves, which is reproduced in almost all subjects of the Federation. Each point on these diagrams is the number of votes for a particular party or candidate in a particular PEC. In all subjects of the Federation, with rare exceptions, the winner (the United Russia party) has a deviation of "+", the Communist Party of the Russian Federation - both the main opposition leader and the rest of the opposition parties - a deviation of "-". There are dense organic clouds with a small spread (Fig. 8), i.e., a small level of dispersion. And the second, elongated cloud, which has a very high level of dispersion. It will soon be seen that one of the "clouds" corresponds to the true results, and the second - falsified.
Fig.8. A typical picture of falsifications in favor of the United Russia party and the removal of votes from other parties. Deviation angles from the horizontal - falsification factor
This example is for Voronezh region shows a typical picture. The right "tails" of distributions for "United Russia", being falsified, are always directed to the right-up. For the opposition, the direction is always the reverse "right-down".
The Report contains data on falsification in favor of the United Russia party and the withdrawal of votes from other parties in all regions of the Russian Federation.
Figure 9 shows the distribution of the falsification coefficient by constituent entities of the Federation (comparative data) for voting on the party list and in majoritarian districts.
Fig.9. Fraud coefficient for the United Russia party for all subjects of the federation for majoritarian elections and according to the party list
It can be seen from the nature of the curves that the falsifications were synchronized both according to the party list of United Russia and according to its candidates in the majoritarian districts. The correlation coefficient of the curves is very high - amounted to 0.86!
We emphasize that the average rate of falsifications in favor of candidates and parties from power in 2016 became 1.9 times higher than in 2011.
III. Mechanism of electoral fraud
The results of voting during the elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation in 2016 were falsified in several ways: the stuffing of false ballots; drawing up false protocols; fraud with an absentee mechanism; fraud with fake voters (the so-called carousels); fraud committed by a group of persons by prior agreement or organized group associated with bribery, coercion, the use of violence or the threat of its use; threats to teachers and other poor fellows in the precinct election commissions with dismissal in case of a low result in the elections of the favorites of the authorities.
The facts of falsification are evidenced by numerous video evidence, personal eyewitness accounts, photo and video stuffing of ballots in many polling stations by members and even chairmen election commissions.
In fair elections, citizens' preferences do not depend on turnout: that is, the ratio of the number of votes for one party to the number of votes for another, votes for one candidate to votes for another does not depend on turnout. In the direct exit pool conducted by VTsIOM, which you cannot suspect of opposition to the authorities and the CEC of Russia, at the exit from polling stations, there is no dependence on turnout!
The previous figures show that before the turnout of 47%, the United Russia party is seriously losing to the opposition. But, starting with a turnout of 47%, the opposite is true. And the greater the turnout, the more the United Russia party begins to "win" over the opposition. Moreover, the curves practically coincide for voting on the party list and on majoritarian districts. It is important that in the range of turnouts of 25-40%, which corresponds to the organic cloud of "fair" voting, the ratio does not really depend on the turnout. This means that the data here can be relatively trusted. In this range, the United Russia party lost to the opposition by 1.42 times. The average turnout in this range is 32.5%.
For this turnout, the number of voters who voted in the elections is 35,690 thousand people. The true ratio of votes for the United Russia party and the total opposition (1.42 times) revealed above makes it possible to obtain the true absolute number of votes for the United Russia party and the corresponding result (percentage). It turns out that the United Russia party actually received 14,750,000 votes. Officially, the CEC of Russia declared 28,525,000 votes for the United Russia party. And this corresponds to 54.28%. And the true result is 27.9%.
Results of the reconstruction of the true election results
As a result, we come to the conclusion that the United Russia party was supported by a little more than 13% of all registered voters and less than 10% of the country's population. The falsifiers illegally increased its result by more than 1.5 times! More than 200 people entered the State Duma of the Russian Federation “to work” on the basis of misappropriated powers! In other words, there was an illegal seizure of power!
Meanwhile, in the Constitution of the Russian Federation Art.3.ch.4. It is fixed that “no one has the right to appropriate power in the Russian Federation. The seizure of power or the appropriation of power is punishable by federal law» - the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation.
In particular, article 278 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation - Forcible seizure of power or forcible retention of power - states that "actions aimed at the forcible seizure of power or the forcible retention of power in violation of the Constitution of the Russian Federation ... are punishable by imprisonment for a term of twelve to twenty years.. .".
Federal Election Fraud state power The State Duma of the Russian Federation is also part of a criminal offense. Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. Article 142. Falsification of election documents, referendum documents.
"one. Falsification of election documents, ... if this act is committed by a member of the election commission ... is punishable by a fine in the amount of one hundred thousand to three hundred thousand rubles or in the amount of wages or other income of the convicted person for a period of up to two years, or by forced labor for a term of up to four years, or by deprivation of liberty for the same term ....
2. Forgery of signatures of voters, ... or certification of deliberately forged signatures (signature sheets), committed by a group of persons by prior agreement or by an organized group, or combined with bribery, coercion, the use of violence or the threat of its use, ... shall be punishable by a fine in the amount of two hundred thousand to five hundred thousand ... either by forced labor for up to three years, or by imprisonment for the same term ...
3. Illegal production of ... ballots ..., absentee certificates is punishable by a fine in the amount of two hundred thousand to five hundred thousand rubles ... or imprisonment for a term of 2 to 5 years.”
Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. Article 142.1. Falsification of voting results. “Inclusion of unaccounted ballots in the number of ballots used in voting, or submission of deliberately incorrect information about voters, or deliberately incorrect compilation of voter lists, ... or falsification of voters' signatures, ... or replacement of valid ballots with voters' marks, leading to the inability to determine the will of voters, ... or deliberately incorrect counting of votes of voters, ... or signing by members of the election commission ... of the protocol on the results of voting before the counting of votes or establishing the results of voting, or knowingly incorrect (not corresponding to the actual results of voting) drawing up the protocol on the results of voting, or illegally entering the protocol on the results of voting changes after it is filled in, or knowingly incorrect determination of the voting results, determination of the election results ... - shall be punishable by a fine in the amount of two hundred thousand to five hundred thousand rubles ... or by compulsory labor for a term of d four years, or imprisonment for the same term.
Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. Article 141
« 1. Preventing a citizen from freely exercising his electoral rights, violating the secrecy of voting, ... obstructing the work of election commissions, ... the activities of a member of an election commission, ... is punishable by a fine in the amount of up to eighty thousand rubles ... or ... by corrective labor for up to one year.
2. The same acts:
a) combined with bribery, deceit, coercion, use of violence or with the threat of its use;
b) committed by a person using his official position;
c) committed by a group of persons by prior agreement or by an organized group, - shall be punishable by a fine in the amount of 100,000 to 300,000 ... or imprisonment for up to 5 years.
3. Interfering with the use of an official or official position in the exercise by an election commission ... of its powers, ... in order to influence its decisions, namely, the requirement or instruction of an official in matters of registration of candidates, lists of candidates, counting of votes of voters ... is punishable by a fine of two hundred thousand to five hundred thousand ... or imprisonment for up to four years.
I.Y. conclusions
1. The official turnout of 48%, recorded by the CEC of Russia, is unreliable and does not exceed 35% for both party list and majoritarian districts, or the turnout recorded by the CEC of Russia was falsified and overestimated by 1.45 times.
2. During the voting, the United Russia party actually received not 54% on the party list, as recorded by the CEC of Russia, but 27.9% of those who voted, or 13.2% of the number of registered voters and less than 10% of the country's population . The falsifiers illegally increased its result by more than 1.5 times.
3. Instead of 343 seats in the State Duma of the Russian Federation, according to the official total, the real result for the United Russia party is 134 seats.
The falsified 209 mandates handed over to the United Russia party are in fact in a state of “seizure of power and appropriation of power”, which is prohibited by the Constitution of the Russian Federation and the Criminal Code of Russia.
General conclusion : a scientifically based analysis of the election process on September 18, 2016 indicates that the elections to the State Duma were held with gross violations, massive falsifications and must be canceled, and State Duma 2016 isillegal.
The saddest thing about this problem is that only certain individuals are actively fighting against gross violations, falsification, scandalous elections, such as, for example, T. Yurasova in Mytishchi, S. Posokhov in Krasnogorsk, R. Zinatullin in Tatarstan and a number of others, but not the opposition parties LDPR, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Just Russia, which were "robbed" during the election process and the only one from the media - Novaya Gazeta.
Meanwhile, it is the factions of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party, Just Russia in the State Duma of the Russian Federation that could bring to the meeting of the State Duma of the Russian Federation the issue of gross violations and massive fraud in the elections on September 18, 2016 in order to make a political decision - self-dissolution illegal State Duma of the Russian Federation and an appeal to the President of the Russian Federation as the guarantor of the Constitution of the Russian Federation on the appointment of new elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation.
Massive violations and falsification during the elections of the State Duma in 2016 concern a significant number of citizens and have acquired a special socio-political significance. In this regard, within the framework of its powers, the CEC of Russia has the right to apply to the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation for the protection of the electoral rights of the majority of citizens, as well as to the Prosecutor General's Office and investigative committee Russia to take prosecutorial response measures and initiate a criminal case on the fact of committing crimes under Articles 141, 142, 142.1, 278 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, identifying those responsible for violating the current legislation.
Sincerely yours (Yu.Voronin)
doctor of economic sciences, professor,
Deputy Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Tatar ASSR -
Chairman of the State Planning Committee of the TASSR (1988-1990);
First Deputy Chairman of the Supreme
Council of the Russian Federation (1991-1993); Deputy of the State Duma
(second convocation); Auditor of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation.