Introduction

Forecasting is one of the main components of the management process. Without forecasting, without an idea of ​​the expected course of development of events, it is impossible to make an effective management decision.

Statesmen of the past, commanders, businessmen sometimes made brilliant managerial decisions. In this case, as a rule, elements of forecasting were used, related more to the art of forecasting. After all, the science of forecasting, like the science of management, did not exist at all.

The forecasting process is quite relevant at the present time. The scope of its application is wide. Forecasting is widely used in economics, namely in management. In management, the concepts of "planning" and "forecasting" are closely intertwined, they are not identical and do not replace each other. Plans and forecasts differ from each other by time limits, the degree of detail of the indicators contained in them, the degree of accuracy and probability of their achievement, targeting, and, finally, legal basis. Forecasts, as a rule, are indicative, and plans have the power of directives.

Forecasting, its functions and methods, the analysis of these forecasting methods, their study, their use in various fields of activity is an activity of rationalization nature. The degree of reliability of forecasts can then be compared with really real indicators, and, having drawn conclusions, proceed to the next forecast with existing data, i.e. existing trend. Based on the data obtained, it is possible to move to a higher level in the time aspect, etc.

At present, not a single sphere of social life can do without forecasts as a means of knowing the future. Of particular importance are forecasts of the socio-economic development of society, the substantiation of the main directions of economic policy, and the prediction of the consequences of decisions made. Socio-economic forecasting is one of the decisive scientific factors in the formation of the strategy and tactics of social development.

Predictive model - a model of the object of forecasting, the study of which allows obtaining information about the possible states of objects in the future and (or) the ways and timing of their implementation.

Social forecasting is the forecasting of everything social, everything connected with society, social relations, in the center of which is a person.

Chapter 1. General characteristics of forecasting

1 THE CONCEPT OF FORECASTING

A forecast is a scientifically based judgment about the possible states of an object in the future, about alternative ways and the timing of their achievement. The process of developing forecasts is called forecasting.

Forecasting is an important link between theory and practice in all spheres of society. It has two different instance planes:

Self-predictive (descriptive, descriptive).

Predictive (prescriptive, command).

The forecast provides a description of possible or desirable prospects, conditions, solutions to the problems of the future. The forecast is, in fact, the solution to these problems, the use of information about the future in purposeful activities.

Thus, in the problem of forecasting, two aspects are distinguished:

Theoretical-cognitive.

Managerial, associated with the possibility of making managerial decisions based on the knowledge gained.

The concept of "forecasting" (from the Greek - provision, forecast) means the process of making a probabilistic judgment about the state of a phenomenon or process in the future.

Being one of the forms of scientific foresight in the social sphere, economic or political, forecasting is interconnected with:

purposefulness;

planning;

programming;

design;

management.

Where objects are unmanaged, an unconditional prediction takes place in order to adjust actions to the expected state of the object. However, often (especially in social forecasts) feedback leads to self-fulfillment or self-destruction of the forecast. Thus, a forecast of success can cause mobilization of forces, inspiration, and a forecast of a catastrophe - panic and really exacerbate the situation, but can stimulate timely intervention and elimination of the threat.

The first attempts to consciously predict, foresee fate, give advice for the future were already known to the ancient Greeks. For these tips, they went to the oracle (from Latin - I say, please). Among the ancient Greeks, Romans and the peoples of the East, this gift allegedly came from the deity, and was transferred to the priests; signifies also the place where the prophecy was announced.

Hence the conclusion: where it is possible and necessary to decide, manage, act, it is not enough just to try to foresee (or believe in the forecast) what exactly will take place in the future.

First of all, you need to imagine what will happen if you do nothing, but leave everything as it is. Experience shows that if problems are brewing, they should not be passively waited for and rash decisions made, but actively resolved. Of course, it is very difficult to develop a useful forecast for people and there is a lot of complexity in the science of forecasting.

In modern forecasting, four types of forecasts can be distinguished:

Exploratory, which identifies promising problems by conditionally continuing the observed trends into the future.

Normative, which highlights possible ways to solve the problems of achieving some kind of optimum based on predetermined criteria.

Analytical, which allows for scientific purposes to establish the cognitive value of various methods and means of studying the future.

Forecasts-Warning, which are made for a direct effect on the consciousness and behavior of people in order to force them to prevent the foreseen future.

The world practice of forecasting has mastered three ways of developing specific forecasts:

Extrapolation into the future of tendencies, regularities that are quite well known in the past and present.

Modeling the object of study, presenting it in a simplified schematic form, convenient for obtaining predictive conclusions.

An example is a matrix of a chess-tournament type or, say, tables of the Periodic System of Elements, which are constructed in such a way that corresponding data are displayed at the intersections of different values.

Predictive assessment of an expert, that is, a person who is able to more or less objectively judge the prospects of the corresponding phenomenon.

The listed images of the forecast seem to complement each other. Each extrapolation is a model and an estimate, and any predictive estimate is an estimate plus an extrapolation.

In turn, the predictive estimate involves extrapolation and imaginary modeling.

In addition, there are such methods of forecasting:

historical analogy.

Computer modelling.

Scenario of the future.

However, the most important method of social forecasting remains an expert assessment of the prospects for a real historical process, provided that it is based on correct theoretical constructions about it, using the results obtained using other methods, and gives these results a correct interpretation.

It should be noted that today forecasting is increasingly taking on a social orientation.

Socio-economic forecasting is an integrating field of knowledge, it cannot be divided into separate “departments of science”, because there can be no justified social forecasts without taking into account the prospects for economic, environmental, demographic development, scientific and technological progress, the possible evolution of culture, the dynamics of international relations .

Thus, the task of socio-economic forecasting, on the one hand, is to find out the prospects for the near or more distant future in the area under study, guided by the real processes of reality, and on the other hand, to facilitate the production of optimal current and long-term plans. , based on the forecast and assessment of the decision taken from the standpoint of its consequences in the forecast period.

Social forecasting as a study with a wide scope of objects of analysis is based on many methods. When classifying forecasting methods, their main features are distinguished, allowing them to be structured according to: the degree of formalization; principle of action; way to get information.

The degree of formalization in forecasting methods, depending on the object of study, may be different; methods for obtaining predictive information are ambiguous, they include: methods of associative modeling, morphological analysis, probabilistic modeling, questioning, interview method, methods of collective generation of ideas, methods of historical and logical analysis, script writing, etc. The most common methods of social forecasting are the methods of extrapolation, modeling and expertise.

Extrapolation means the extension of conclusions concerning one part of a phenomenon to another part, to the phenomenon as a whole, to the future. Extrapolation is based on the hypothesis that previously identified patterns will operate in the forecast period. For example, a conclusion about the level of development of any social group can be done from observations of its individual representatives, and about the prospects of culture - from the trends of the past.

The extrapolation method is diverse - it has at least five different options. Statistical extrapolation - the projection of population growth according to past data - is one of the most important methods of modern social forecasting.

Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their counterparts - real or mental.

An analogue of an object can be, for example, its layout, drawing, diagram, etc. In the social sphere, mental models are more often used. Working with models allows you to transfer experimentation from a real social object to its mentally constructed duplicate and avoid the risk of an unsuccessful, all the more dangerous for people, management decision. main feature mental model and lies in the fact that it can be subjected to any kind of tests, which practically consist in changing the parameters of itself and the environment in which it (as an analogue of a real object) exists. This is the great advantage of the model. It can also act as a model, a kind of ideal type, an approximation to which may be desirable for the creators of the project.

There are such spheres of social life in which it is impossible to use other methods of forecasting, except for expert ones. First of all, this applies to those areas where there is no necessary and sufficient information about the past.

When an expert assessment of the state of either a separate social sphere, or its constituent element, or its components, a number of mandatory provisions and methodological requirements are taken into account. First of all, an assessment of the initial situation:

Factors predetermining unsatisfactory condition;

Directions, tendencies, the most characteristic for a given state of the situation;

features, specifics of the development of the most important components;

the most characteristic forms of work, the means by which activities are carried out.

The second block of questions includes an analysis of the activities of those organizations and services that carry out this activity. Evaluation of their activities is to identify trends in their development, their rating in public opinion.

Expert assessment is carried out by special centers of expertise, scientific information and analytical centers, expert laboratories, expert groups and individual experts.

The methodology of expert work includes a number of stages:

the circle of experts is determined;

problems are identified;

a plan and time for action is outlined;

criteria for expert assessments are being developed;

the forms and methods in which the results of the examination will be expressed are indicated (analytical note, round table, conference, publications, speeches of experts).

Thus, social forecasting is based on various methods research, the main of which are extrapolation, modeling and expertise.

A forecast is understood as a scientifically based judgment about the possible states of an object in the future, about alternative ways and timing of its implementation. The process of developing forecasts is called forecasting.

The object of social forecasting can be all social systems, all phenomena occurring in society.

The subject of social forecasting are people - individual scientific and practical workers and research organizations.

The subject is the improvement of the needs of society and the satisfaction of its needs.

The basis for the formation of forecasts is static information and an information array - a system of scientifically determined parameters and factors that comprehensively characterize the object of forecasting.

There are the following types of forecasts:

) By control hierarchy:

a) forecasts for the development of individual enterprises and their associations

b) forecasts for the development of industries and clusters

c) forecasts for the development of municipalities

d) regional development forecasts

e) country development forecasts

f) development forecasts international cooperation and international structures

g) global forecasts (worldwide)

) By the time of anticipation of events:

a) operational (7 days-1 year)

b) short-term (1-3 years)

c) medium-term (4-10 years)

d) long-term (10-20 years)

e) long-term (20-50 years)

f) ultra-long-term (50 years or more)

) By object and horizon:

a) quantitatively specific (clearly calculated solution options with a set of development indicators)

b) quality

) According to the method of providing forecast information:

a) point (in the form of a single value)

b) interval (a set of values ​​of the predicted value based on interval calculations)

) Functionally:

a) search

b) normative

Currently, several methodological principles of social forecasting are distinguished, on the basis of which the analysis of the object of the forecast is carried out and the forecast itself is developed.

A principle is a basis from which one must proceed and by which one must be guided in action.

) The principle of consistency in forecasting. The main concept in this case is the "system" - a whole made up of parts; connection, or a set of elements with relationships and connections between them, forming a certain integrity. It should be borne in mind that the essence of the concept of a system is closely related to such categories as: integrity, structure, connection element, relation subsystem, etc.

A characteristic feature of the system is the feature of the set of elements that form the system to resist the environment. And, in addition, the functioning of the system is based on a certain orderliness of its elements, relationships and connections.

The social system is understood as a complex, ordered whole, including individuals and social communities, united by various connections and relationships that are specifically social in nature.

) The principle of historicism in social foresight focuses on the study of specific patterns, the conditions for their development and requires reinforcement of the foresight of global changes by systematic forecasting of more private social processes.

In this sense, the forecast refines our understanding of the general development trend, reveals the specific features and characteristics of the future development of phenomena, localizes them in spatio-temporal boundaries, i.e. represents a predictive model for the development of a given phenomenon or process. This takes into account possible changes forecast fund, i.e. conditions in the future.

) With the help of the principle of social determination and development, forecasting takes into account the diverse connections and dependencies in public life(as part of a systematic approach). It is known that the phenomena of material and spiritual world are in an objective regular relationship and interdependence (determinism). And an important provision of this conditionality is causality, i.e. such a connection of phenomena in which one phenomenon (cause) under well-defined conditions necessarily generates, produces another phenomenon (effect). Scenario modeling, scenario thinking is based on this position.

) The principle of coherence implies the harmonization of normative and exploratory approaches and, accordingly, forecasts; forecasts of possible development various areas- economic, ecological, demographic and others, different periods of lead in the forecast - short-term, medium-term, long-term, over long-term.

) The principle of forecasting verifiability indicates a mandatory procedure for checking the developed forecasts for accuracy, reliability, reliability, and their validity. For this purpose, there is a whole group of methods, which will be discussed below.

) The principle of profitability of forecasting is closely related to reliability, because only a reliable forecast can be cost-effective. This means that the costs of developing a forecast, and this is a very expensive study, should pay off and not only bring profit, income to the customer when using it, or a positive effect in any other case.

) The principle of continuity of forecasting (especially in crisis conditions) requires adjustment of forecasts as new data on the object of forecasting becomes available. And this is possible with the functioning of permanent forecasting systems in research centers in order to monitor the situation and, accordingly, refine the forecast. Only in this case, you can count on a reliable forecast.

3 Prediction functions

The main functions of socio-economic forecasting are:

Scientific analysis of economic, social, scientific and technical processes and trends.

Research of objective connections of socio-economic and political phenomena and processes.

Estimation of the object of forecasting.

Identification of alternatives to the development of the economy and social development.

Accumulation of scientific material for a reasonable choice of certain solutions.

Scientific analysis of economic, social, scientific and technical processes and trends is carried out in three stages:

retrospection;

prospection.

Retrospection is understood as the stage of forecasting, at which the history of the development of the object of forecasting is studied in order to obtain its systematic description. At the stage of retrospection, the collection, storage and processing of information, sources necessary for forecasting, optimization of both the composition of sources and measurement methods, the final formation of the structure and composition of the characteristics of the forecasting object takes place.

Diagnosis is such a stage of forecasting, at which a systematic description of the object of forecasting is studied in order to identify trends in its development and select models and methods of forecasting.

At the stage of diagnosis, an analysis of the forecasting object, which underlies the forecasting model, is carried out. AT general view these issues are considered in the process of preprognostic preparation during the initial description of the object and the formulation of the forecasting problem, the formation of the forecast problem, and the preparation of the retrospective stage.

At the diagnosis stage, the analysis of the forecasting object, as a rule, ends not only with the development of a forecasting model, but also with the choice of an adequate forecasting method.

Prospection is the stage of forecasting, at which, according to the diagnosis, forecasts of the object of forecasting are developed, the reliability, accuracy or validity of the forecast is assessed (verification), the goal of the forecast is realized by combining specific forecasts based on the principles of forecasting (synthesis).

At the prospecting stage, it turns out what information about the forecasting object is missing, the information received earlier is specified, and adjustments are made to the model of the forecasted object according to the information that has been received.

With the continuous nature of forecasting, the analysis of its object occurs continuously, accompanying all stages of the formation of forecasts, thus providing feedback between the real object and its prognostic model. Analytical work consists in identifying trends in the economic development of factors that affect the change of the object based on a deep analysis of national and world experience, finding the initial level and the most important problems that determine further development National economy.

As a result of a scientific analysis of economic processes and trends in the development of the economy, it is determined to what extent the adopted planned decisions correspond to future development, there are inconsistencies in the economy, the level achieved in the country is compared with the world level.

Scientific analysis makes it possible to establish those factors, the active influence on which leads to a change in existing trends and the situation that has developed.

The assessment of the forecasting object is based on the combination of the aspects of determinism and uncertainty. In the absence of one of them, forecasting loses its meaning. With absolute determinism, the possibility of an alternative choice of solutions disappears.

With absolute uncertainty, a concrete representation of the future is impossible.

One of the conditions for the formation of economic, social, scientific and technical forecasts is its periodization, that is, its coordination with national economic plans. Each forecast is based on the processes that take place in the national economy, which, for their duration, are included in its time horizon.

Forecasting at its core is a continuous process. This is expressed in the need to refine forecasts, taking into account the refinement of scientific data and new economic phenomena that arise in the course of the implementation of the national economic plan.

In the planning process, forecasts are developed:

Identification of the current plan, the results of which allow it to make certain adjustments and provide an initial basis for planning for the next planning period.

Future planned order, the results of which serve as scientific and analytical material for the development of the next plan.

For a period that exceeds the next planned period, which evaluate the consequences of the adopted planned decisions and identify new conditions and development problems in the long term.

It is also necessary to highlight the following functions:

Special.

Providing:

forecasting;

information;

organization.

Planning.

coordination.

Regulation.

Humanistic.

Consolidating.

Transfer of social experience.

Functions are also divided into:

Regulatory.

Orientation.

Warning.

Regulatory Functions:

in the forecast, certain indicators and norms are always observed;

make it possible to implement a predictive model;

warn the governing body against subjectivity in its activities.

Orientation functions:

are expressed in the definition by the subject of management of the goals of the development of society;

more realistic direction and selective approach to information.

Warning features:

inform the control body about the possible and real deviations of the object from the predictive model;

make it possible to analyze the factors and causes that determine the operation of the governing system, and to take timely measures to stabilize them.

When implementing certain forecasting functions, it is necessary to determine the approaches that form the scientific basis of economic and social forecasting.

AT given time two approaches are used.

With the search (or research) approach, the ultimate goal is to determine the possible states of the forecasting object in the future, given that the existing trends in the development of this object are stored. This does not take into account the conditions that can change these trends.

With the normative approach, it is understood that the determination of the ways and timing of achieving the possible state of the object in the future is understood as a goal. For example, in the research approach, based on the available information on the growth of consumption, we provide for how much it increases over the period to the level of rational norms. With this approach, possible ways of changing trends due to the intensification of production, improving its structure, increasing work productivity, etc. are investigated and predicted.

In the research approach, the achieved level is determined as a base. For example, in our country, the optimal working age is 16 years, so the labor force for 15-16 years ahead will be determined by the current structure of the population.

Any foreseen phenomenon or process has its origins in the present and the past. The future state of the forecasting object is formed from already known elements, albeit in new proportions, and other connections. With an increase in the forecasting period, this dependence is traced less and less.

The two scientific approaches discussed above, which implement the functions of forecasting, are interconnected, they complement each other. The connection finds its expression in a number of common features. In both cases, it is necessary to trace the relationship between the past and the future.

In the research and normative approaches, heredity between the past and the present is stored, since to describe and define reached state can only be based on the study state of the art, and on the other hand, the results obtained or the predicted goals must be correlated with the real possibilities of science, technology, and economics.

Criteria for progressive development of society:

Increasing individual freedom and responsibility.

Affirmation of justice in social life.

Increasing the openness of society.

Creation of a system of social and moral security of a person.

The efficiency and reliability of forecasts is predetermined by many factors, including compliance with the basic principles of the approach and the research process itself.

Among the most important of them are:

selection of the main factors and elements of this system, determination of their role and significance in the social sphere;

identification based on the analysis of the main trends in the development of the studied processes (unemployment, social protection etc.);

Extrapolating these trends into the future;

Synthesis of these future trajectories in present social processes;

integration with forecasts in other areas of public activity;

compilation of a comprehensive multi-level forecast both in general and for individual processes and areas;

continuous adjustment of forecasts.

The main conditions for the reliability of forecasts include:

a) depth and objectivity of the analysis;

b) knowledge of specific conditions;

c) efficiency, competence and speed in carrying out and processing materials.

Of particular importance in social forecasting is information, a database of statistical material.

In theoretical and methodological terms, it is necessary to take into account a number of important provisions:

perception of social processes as an objective reality;

use of a holistic, systematic approach to research;

historical determinism, i.e. recognition of the causal-causal conditions of these processes.

questioning interview associative forecasting

Chapter 2

1 Classification of forecasting methods

Intuitive forecasting methods are used in cases where the possible influence of many factors due to the significant complexity of the forecasting object. In this case, expert estimates are used.

At the same time, they distinguish:

individual expert assessments;

collective expert assessments.

Individual expert assessments include:

the "interview" method, in which the direct contact of the expert with the specialist is carried out according to the scheme: "question - answer";

analytical method, in which a logical analysis of some predictable situation is carried out, analytical reports are compiled;

a scripting method that relies on determining the logic of a process or influence over time under different conditions.

Methods of collective expert assessments include:

method "Delphi";

matrix method. This group of methods is based on the fact that with collective thinking, the highest accuracy of the result; at the very least, productive ideas can arise from the processing of individual independent assessments that are made by experts.

The group of formalized methods includes two subgroups:

extrapolation;

modeling.

The first subgroup includes the methods of least squares, exponential smoothing, moving averages. To the second - structural, network, matrix modeling.

The considered classes of intuitive and formalized methods are similar in their composition to expert and "factual" methods. Factographic methods are based on actually existing information about the object of forecasting and its past development, expert methods are based on information obtained from the assessments of expert experts.

The class of expert forecasting methods includes the method of heuristic forecasting (heuristics is a science that studies productive, creative thinking).

This is an analytical method, the essence of which is to build and further truncate the "search tree" of expert evaluation using some kind of heuristic. With this method, specialized processing of predictive expert assessments obtained by systematized questioning of highly qualified specialists is carried out. It is used to develop forecasts of scientific and technical problems and objects, the analysis of the development of which is not fully or partially subject to formalization.

The structure of the heuristic forecasting method includes as main elements:

synthesis of object model graph;

formation of expert teams and assessment of the competence of experts;

formation of questions and development of expert assessments;

analysis of the work of experts;

algorithms for processing tables of expert assessments;

the image of the variation of the received forecasts;

synthesis of predictive models.

A special place in the classification of economic forecasting methods is occupied by the so-called combined methods, which combine massacre other methods. For example, collective expert judgments and modeling methods or statistical methods and questioning of experts.

Factual and expert data are used as information.

When classifying forecasting methods, it must be borne in mind that the meaningful systematization of forecasting methods should be determined by the very object of forecasting, economic development processes and their patterns.

From the point of view of assessing possible ways and results of predictive scientific and technological development, forecasts can be classified in three stages:

research;

software;

organizational.

The tasks of the research forecast are to determine the possible outcomes of future development and the choice of one or more positive outcomes from a variety of possible options.

So, for example, the development of computer technology can be displayed as an increase in their speed, an increase in memory capacity and a range of logical possibilities.

Specific approaches and methods of economic forecasting are entirely related to economic forecasting. The structure of this science is determined by its main problems:

analysis and synthesis of the forecast object;

adaptation of forecasting methods to the forecast object;

algorithmization of the forecasting process.

In the arsenal of economic forecasting tools, an important role belongs to quantitative methods for processing forecast information - economic and mathematical methods, economic and mathematical modeling, and static extrapolation. The methodology of economic forecasting explores the future in three aspects:

ontological;

logical;

epistemological.

The ontological aspect shows how the future is born and formed, characterizes its overall picture, the factors that influence it.

In the logical aspect, the forecast is studied as a general scientific concept formulated to clarify the objective content of the processes and results of forecasting.

The epistemological aspect has as its task to find out how the future is displayed in the human mind, which forms of this display, its truth. Being a form of cognition, a forecast from an epistemological point of view is a reflection of the regularities and possible ways of development of the predicted processes and phenomena.

Accordingly, the problem of scientific foresight covers both the epistemological aspect associated with the study of forecasts as a function of the laws and theory of sciences, and the practical aspect, which is expressed, in particular, in the direct connection of forecasting with planning and management.

2.2 Traditional methods of social forecasting

The most reliable method of social forecasting remains an expert assessment of the prospects for a real historical process, provided that it is based on correct theoretical ideas about it, uses the results obtained using other methods, and gives these results a correct interpretation.

Anticipation of the future inevitably, one way or another, affects the consciousness and behavior of people in the present. Depending on the description of the future contained in social forecasts, they induce a person to either actively strive for it, or counteract its onset, or passively expect it. Therefore, any social forecast combines both scientific and cognitive content and a certain ideological purpose.

And in this fusion of two functions - cognitive and ideological - both the first and the second can prevail. Based on the content and purpose of various forecasts, four main types (types) can be distinguished: search; regulatory; analytical; warning predictions.

Exploratory forecasts (sometimes called "exploratory" or "realistic") are made directly to reveal what the future may be, starting from realistic assessments of current development trends in various areas of social activity.

Normative forecasts, focused on the achievement of certain goals in the future, contain various practical recommendations for the implementation of relevant development plans and programs.

Analytical forecasts, as a rule, are made in order to determine the cognitive value of various methods and means of studying the future for scientific purposes.

Forecasts-warnings are made to directly influence the consciousness and behavior of people in order to force them to prevent the expected future.

Of course, the differences between these main types of forecasts are arbitrary; in the same specific social forecast, signs of several types can be combined.

It must be said that some doctrinaires and conservative social scientists in our country quite recently rejected futurology (Futurology (from the Latin futurum - future and ... logic), in a broad sense - a set of ideas about the future of the Earth and mankind, in a narrow sense - the field of scientific knowledge, covering the prospects of social processes, a synonym for forecasting and prognostication), calling it "bourgeois pseudoscience", as genetics and cybernetics were previously rejected under this pretext. However, refuting the claims of Western futurologists for the monopoly right to explore the future, there is no need to deny social forecasting the right to exist as a special branch. scientific knowledge, declaring it the prerogative of each science separately.

In the modern era, along with further specialization in science, there is a growing desire to integrate knowledge both “from below” (biophysics, geochemistry, etc.) and “from above” (cybernetics, ecology, etc.). Among such integrating branches of knowledge is social forecasting, which obviously cannot be divided into separate departments of science. For there can be no justified social forecasts without taking into account the prospects for economic, environmental, demographic development, scientific and technological progress and the possible evolution of culture and international relations.

Anticipation of the future is an interdisciplinary comprehensive study of the prospects of mankind, which can be fruitful only in the process of integrating humanitarian, natural science and technical knowledge.

Similarity Conclusion individual actions researcher of the economic space with the main sequence of the research procedure is carried out by comparing the steps to study the economic space with a set of elements that characterize scientific, technical, socio-economic and spiritual progress in the modern era.

Sociosynergetics - unconventional method forecasting.

Traditional methods of social forecasting based on classical rationality have a number of disadvantages: one-dimensionality, linearity, no alternative, etc. Sociosynergetics differs from classical methodology in that it is based on a fundamentally different worldview approach - the philosophy of instability. This allows, when building models of historical processes, to take into account such important features of real systems as stochasticity, uncertainty, nonlinearity, and polyvariance.

While noting the advantages of synergetic modeling of evolutionary processes, at the same time we should emphasize the considerable difficulties associated with the practical use of these methods. The main one is the exceptionally high complexity of social systems, the presence of a large number of factors that determine their dynamics. And the links between the factors themselves are complex and multi-staged. To this should be added the lack of development of methods for analyzing bifurcation phases and evolutionary catastrophes.

These circumstances determined the relatively slow progress in the development of synergistic methods of social forecasting, or futurosynergetics.

Conclusion

Based on the research carried out, it is possible to following conclusions and suggestions:

A forecast is understood as a system of scientifically based ideas about the possible states of an object in the future, about alternative ways of its development.

The forecast expresses foresight at the level of a specific applied theory, at the same time, the forecast is ambiguous and has a probabilistic and multivariate character.

The process of developing a forecast is called forecasting.

Forecasting is one of the most important stages of project activity. Mankind, having forecasts, consciously seeks and finds ways to exit.

Forecasting in a broad sense is a prediction, in general, of any information received about the future. In a narrow sense - a special scientific study, the subject of which are the prospects for the development of phenomena.

One of the most important types of forecasting is social forecasting - this is the prediction of trends and prospects for the possible development of social systems, objects, social phenomena, processes. The object of social forecasting can be all social systems, all phenomena occurring in society.

Forecasting is an integral part of the process of developing a social project. In isolation from design, forecasting loses its practical meaning. Social forecasting makes it possible to take into account various options for the movement and development of social systems. The development of correct forecasts makes it possible to make management more perfect, and design more efficient.

Thus, the methods of socio-economic forecasting are a set of techniques and ways of thinking that allow, based on the analysis of retrospective data, exogenous (external) and endogenous (internal) relations of the forecasting object, as well as their measurements within the phenomenon or process under consideration, to derive judgments of a certain reliability. regarding its (object) future development.

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Gerasenko V.P. Prognostic methods of market economy management. Part 1. Gomel., 2014.

COURSE WORK

Subject "Fundamentals of social forecasting"

Topic "Methodology of social forecasting"

Introduction

Forecasting - it is a method of scientific research, which aims to provide possible options for those processes and phenomena that are chosen as the subject of analysis.

The forecasting process is quite relevant at the present time. The scope of its application is wide. Forecasting is widely used in economics, namely in management. In management, the concepts of "planning" and "forecasting" are closely intertwined. They are not identical and do not replace each other. Plans and forecasts differ from each other by time limits, the degree of detail of the indicators contained in them, the degree of accuracy and probability of their achievement, targeting and, finally, the legal basis. Forecasts, as a rule, are indicative, and plans have the power of directives. Not a substitution and opposition of the plan and forecast, but their the right combination- this is the way of systematic regulation of the economy in a market economy and the transition to it.

In industry, forecasting methods also play a paramount role. Using extrapolation and trend, it is possible to draw preliminary conclusions about various processes, phenomena, reactions, operations. There are many forecasting methods. Differentiating them total number, it is necessary to choose the best one for use in each specific situation.

The analysis of forecasting methods, the study of these methods, their use in various fields of activity is an event of a rationalization nature. The degree of reliability of forecasts can then be compared with really real indicators, and, having drawn conclusions, proceed to the next forecast with existing data, i.e. existing trend. Based on the data obtained, it is possible to move to a higher level in the time aspect, etc.

Predictive model - a model of the object of forecasting, the study of which allows obtaining information about the possible states of objects in the future and (or) the ways and timing of their implementation.

social forecasting- forecasting of everything social, everything connected with society, social relations, in the center of which is a person.

1.1 The concept and essence of the methodology of social forecasting

Forecasting- the science of the system of our thinking about the future, about the ways and methods of studying the future, about finding multivariate alternatives for changing the future, which is of a probabilistic nature.

Prognostics (futurology) is a scientific discipline about the patterns of developing forecasts.

social forecasting is aimed at making changes in the social sphere of a person and society and is one of the manifestations of the purposeful activity of managers in the development and preparation of various solutions social problems.

Methodology of social forecasting explores the future in ontological, logical and epistemological aspects.

ontological aspect shows how the future is born and formed, characterizes its overall picture, the factors influencing it.

Logical aspect allows you to form a forecast based on dialectical principles, which are based on the general laws of the development of nature and society, as well as methods of scientific thinking.

Gnoseological aspect has as its task to find out how the future is displayed in the human mind, what are the forms of this display, its truth. Being a form of cognition, the forecast from the epistemological side is a reflection of the patterns and possible ways of development of the predicted processes and phenomena.

The knowledge of objective truth in forecasting occurs in the direction from living contemplation to abstract thinking, and from it to practical implementation.

Methodology(concept, doctrine) - a system of principles and methods for organizing and constructing theoretical and practical activities, as well as a doctrine about this system. If theory is the result of a process of cognition, then methodology is a way to achieve this knowledge.

Social forecasting consists of several stages, therefore, specific tasks of cognition are solved at each stage. The stage of pre-forecast orientation is especially important for forecasting methodology, at which the concept of research, the conceptual apparatus is developed, the main methodological principles of analysis and forecasting, methods and techniques are determined, hypotheses are formed, which are to be tested in the course of the study.

1.2 Basic principles and criteria of social forecasting methodology

Under forecast refers to a scientifically based judgment about the possible states of an object in the future, about alternative ways and timing of its implementation. The process of developing forecasts is called forecasting .

object social forecasting can be all social systems, all phenomena occurring in society.

Subject social forecasting are people - individual scientific and practical workers and research organizations.

Subject is to improve the needs of society and meet its needs.

The basis for the formation of forecasts is static information and an information array - a system of scientifically determined parameters and factors that comprehensively characterize the object of forecasting.

There are the following forecast types:

1) By hierarchy of control:

a) forecasts for the development of individual enterprises and their associations

b) forecasts for the development of industries and clusters

c) forecasts for the development of municipalities

d) regional development forecasts

e) country development forecasts

f) forecasts for the development of international cooperation and international structures

g) global forecasts (worldwide)

2) By timing of events:

a) operational (7 days-1 year)

b) short-term (1–3 years)

c) medium-term (4–10 years)

d) long-term (10–20 years)

e) long-term (20–50 years)

f) ultra-long-term (50 years or more)

3) By object and horizon:

a) quantitatively specific (clearly calculated solution options with a set of development indicators)

b) quality

4) By the method of providing forecast information:

a) point (in the form of a single value)

b) interval (a set of values ​​of the predicted value based on interval calculations)

5) Functionally:

a) search

b) normative

Currently, several methodological principles of social forecasting are distinguished, on the basis of which the analysis of the object of the forecast is carried out and the forecast itself is developed.

A principle is a basis from which one must proceed and by which one must be guided in action.

1) The principle of consistency in forecasting. The main concept in this case is the "system" - a whole made up of parts; connection, or a set of elements with relationships and connections between them, forming a certain integrity. It should be borne in mind that the essence of the concept of a system is closely related to such categories as: integrity, structure, connection element, relation subsystem, etc.

A characteristic feature of the system is the feature of the set of elements that form the system to resist the environment. And, in addition, the functioning of the system is based on a certain orderliness of its elements, relationships and connections.

The social system is understood as a complex, ordered whole, including individuals and social communities, united by various connections and relationships that are specifically social in nature.

2) The principle of historicism in social foresight, it focuses on the study of specific patterns, the conditions for their development, and requires reinforcement of the foresight of global changes by systematic forecasting of more particular social processes.

In this sense, the forecast refines our understanding of the general development trend, reveals the specific features and characteristics of the future development of phenomena, localizes them in spatio-temporal boundaries, i.e. represents a predictive model for the development of a given phenomenon or process. At the same time, possible changes in the forecast fund are taken into account, i.e. conditions in the future.

3) Using the principle of social determination and development forecasting takes into account diverse connections and dependencies in public life (within the framework of a systematic approach). It is known that the phenomena of the material and spiritual world are in an objective regular relationship and interdependence (determinism). And an important provision of this conditionality is causality, i.e. such a connection of phenomena in which one phenomenon (cause) under well-defined conditions necessarily generates, produces another phenomenon (effect). Scenario modeling, scenario thinking is based on this position.

4) Consistency principle implies the harmonization of normative and exploratory approaches and, accordingly, forecasts; forecasts of the possible development of various areas - economic, environmental, demographic and others, various lead times in the forecast - short-, medium-, long-term, over long-term.

5) Principle of verifiability forecasting indicates a mandatory procedure for checking the developed forecasts for accuracy, reliability, reliability, and their validity. For this purpose, there is a whole group of methods, which will be discussed below.

6)The principle of profitability forecasting is closely related to reliability, for only a reliable forecast can be cost-effective. This means that the costs of developing a forecast, and this is a very expensive study, should pay off and not only bring profit, income to the customer when using it, or a positive effect in any other case.

7)Continuity principle forecasting (especially in crisis conditions) requires adjustment of forecasts as new data about the object of forecasting become available. And this is possible with the functioning of permanent forecasting systems in research centers in order to monitor the situation and, accordingly, refine the forecast. Only in this case, you can count on a reliable forecast.

2.1 System of indicators of social forecasting

The system of indicators of social forecasting is usually divided into 2 categories:

1) Qualitative and quantitative

2) Single and group.

Absolute indicators are expressed in absolute value, for example, in pieces (pieces). Relative - in shares, i.e. in percentages (%). Natural are expressed in physical terms, for example, milk yield of cows. value have a monetary form of expression. Comparative ones are based on the method of comparison, and contextual ones are based on choice.

Structural indicators are based on data between the components of the social sphere. Global indicators involve consideration of the social system as a whole, i.e. on a global scale.

2.2 Classification and characteristics of social forecasting methods

Social forecasting as a study with a wide scope of objects of analysis is based on many methods. When classifying forecasting methods, their main features are distinguished.

Methods of social forecasting- a set of techniques and ways of thinking that, based on the analysis of retrospective data, exogenous (external) and endogenous (internal) connections of the object of forecasting, as well as their measurements within the framework of the phenomenon or process under consideration, derive judgments of a certain reliability regarding its (object) future development.

There are a lot of social forecasting methods and therefore they distinguish 2 main groups of methods .

1) Simple Methods

Factographic forecasting methods are based on the actual information material used in search forecasting and include:

1) statistical methods

extrapolation method

It proceeds from the processing of the quantitative characteristics of the object obtained in the past and present with the relative stability of the system. The main one is the analysis of time series.

analogy method, etc.

Mathematical analogies include economic models and interobject analogs. They are most often used as the simplest models of economic forecasting. Historical analogies are connected with advance (industry or regional).

2) methods of analysis of publications

Dynamics

Construction of time series based on various types of information,
analysis and forecasting on this basis of the development of the corresponding
object.

Publication

The publication forecasting method is based on evaluating the content and dynamics of publications in relation to the object of study.

Patenting

It provides for the assessment of fundamentally new inventions according to the accepted criteria system and the study of the dynamics of their patenting.

Expert forecasting methods are based on the knowledge of specialist experts about the object of forecasting and the generalization of their opinions on the development of the object in the future.

The methodology of expert work includes a number of stages:

- the circle of experts is determined;

- problems are identified;

- a plan and time of action is outlined;

– criteria for expert assessments are being developed;

- the forms and methods in which the results of the examination will be expressed are indicated

In normative forecasting, individual and collective forecasting methods are used.

Individual methods include :

Interview (There is direct contact between the expert and the specialist according to the “question-answer” scheme)

Analytical expert assessments, etc.

Provides a deep and comprehensive analysis possible scenarios development of the process under study. In this case, the expert can involve additional documentary materials and think over his answers for a sufficiently long time.

Collective methods include:

Script building

A scenario is a description (a hypothetical picture) of the future, based on the most plausible assumptions. Scenarios are developed to define the framework for future development. The forecast includes several scenarios (“tube of scenarios”). In most cases, these are three scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic and medium - realistic (most likely.

- goal tree

« Goal Tree” is a structured, hierarchically structured (ranked by levels) set of system, program, plan goals. It is built by sequentially highlighting smaller and smaller components at lower levels and is a combination of the general goal, the main goal and subgoals.

Morphological analysis, etc.

Allows you to create new information about the object as a result of systematization of data on all possible solutions to the problem under study.

2) Complex methods

These include:

1) Predictive graph method

A graph is a figure consisting of points, called vertices, and segments connecting them, called edges. The choice of graph structure is determined by the essence of those relations between the elements of the system that it must express.

The method is based on expert and formal mathematical procedures for constructing and analyzing a graph that reflects a generalized judgment of a wide range of specialists about the needs, possible ways and resources needed to achieve the goal.

At each level, a group of experts formulates event-goals and conditions for their achievement.

The advantage of the method is the ability to work with the graph in the dialogue mode "person - Information system” to test some situations, that is, the ability to play different situations.

The graph is a dynamic system, and when coming from experts new information estimates, forecast options and decisions made are reviewed.

2) Pattern system method

Used in planning development under conditions of uncertainty. The method is based on dividing a complex problem into smaller problems until each sub-problem can be comprehensively (according to different criteria) and reliably quantified by experts.

This method is used mainly to predict how the formulated goals and objectives will be achieved by those who manage the situation.

Method structure:

choice of forecast object

identification of current internal and external patterns

analysis of the hierarchy of regularities indicating the coefficient of relative importance of each level within the framework of the unit and the sum of the levels of the hierarchy equal to one

formulation of the general goal of the forecast and tasks to achieve it

preparation of a scenario (for example, development)

development of resource allocation algorithm

assessment of distribution results

The forecasting process is carried out using the system analysis methodology. Most importantly, it allows you to abandon financially unsecured and secondary topics.

3) Simulation method

1) constructing a model based on a preliminary study of the object;

2) highlighting the essential characteristics of the object;

3) experimental and theoretical analysis of the model;

4) comparison of simulation results with the actual data of the object;

5) correction or refinement of the model.

Economic and mathematical modeling is based on the principle of analogy, that is, the possibility of studying an object through the consideration of another object similar to it and more accessible. Such a more accessible object is the economic-mathematical model. It is a system of formalized equations that describe the main relationships of the elements that form economic system or any economic process.

This model makes it possible to bring the process of obtaining and processing initial information to a complete and exhaustive description, as well as to solve the problems under consideration in a fairly wide class of specific cases.

4) Foresight method

Foresight (English - vision of the future) - the process of systematic attempts to look into the distant future in order to identify areas of strategic research and technology that are likely to bring the greatest economic and social benefits; a complex mechanism that achieves results through a combination of a system of methods.

This method includes planning, control over the implementation of the plan drawn up taking into account the method. Combines forecast and plan functions. In addition to experts, practitioners and managers are involved. Those. experience is used, which is not always a source of innovation. This is the most used method in the world.

Forecasting methods can be further divided into two additional groups (Fig. 1):

1) intuitive methods (based on the predominance of intuition, that is, subjective principles)

2) formalized methods

Intuitive Methods predictions are used in cases where it is impossible to take into account the influence of many factors due to the insignificant complexity of the forecasting object. This method includes a base of expert opinions, on the basis of whose creative thinking it is possible to build a reliable picture of the future with subsequent formal processing of the obtained forecasting results.

The main central stage of intuitive forecasting is conducting surveys of experts on the following methods:

Individual and collective

personal and correspondence

oral and written

open and anonymous

The intuitive prediction method has the following structure:

1) formation of expert teams and assessment of the competence of experts

2) synthesis graph of the modeled object of study

3) formation of questions and development of tables of expert assessments

4) analysis of the work of experts

5) algorithm for processing tables of expert assessments

6) method of variation of the received forecasts and synthesis of predictive models.

There are individual and collective expert assessments.

Part individual expert assessments includes:

1) Interview method

There is direct contact between the expert and the specialist according to the "question-answer" scheme.

2) Analytical method

A logical analysis of any predictable situation is carried out, analytical reports are compiled. Includes system analysis (integrity and unity of its elements), index analysis (ratio of performance indicators to factor indicators and the ratio of homogeneous products to each other in different periods time) and synthesis.

3) Script writing method

Based on the definition of the logic of the development of a process or phenomenon in time under various conditions. The main purpose of the scenario is to determine the general goal of the development of the predicted object, phenomenon and the formulation of criteria for evaluating the upper levels of the “goal tree”. A scenario is a picture that reflects a consistent detailed solution of a problem, the identification of possible obstacles, the detection of serious shortcomings in order to resolve the issue of a possible termination of the work begun or the completion of ongoing work on the predicted object.

Methods collective expert assessments include:

1) Method of "Commissions"

A group of experts meets repeatedly to discuss the same issue. The method of "Commissions" provides for an examination in the form of a free exchange of views to obtain a common opinion of experts. Face-to-face communication of experts significantly reduces the time of examination, facilitates obtaining a single agreed opinion. When using the method of commissions, a discussion program is preliminarily developed. The group of experts is selected by "volitional way" - the method of appointment. Usually it is 10-12 people.

2) "Brainstorm" ("Brainstorm")

The essence of the brainstorming method is to actualize the potential of specialists in the analysis of a problem situation, which first implements the generation of ideas and the subsequent destruction of these ideas. The facilitator reveals the content of the problematic note and the “assault” lasts 20-60 minutes.

3) Delphi Method

It is built on the principle of generalizing the opinions of individual experts into an agreed group opinion and involves a complete rejection of collective discussions.

4) Matrix method

A forecasting method based on the use of matrices that reflect the values ​​(weights) of the graph-model vertices of the forecasting object, followed by the transformation of the matrices and operating with them. The matrix model is a rectangular table, the elements of which reflect the relationship of objects.

Rice. 1. Classification of forecasting methods according to formalization

Formalized forecasting includes:

1. Predictive extrapolation method

It proceeds from the processing of the quantitative characteristics of the object obtained in the past and present with the relative stability of the system. This method can be used in forecasting for a period of 5–7 years, since the error accumulates over time.

These methods include:

1) Least squares

It consists in finding the parameters of the trend model that minimize its deviation from the points of the original time series. An important point in obtaining a forecast using this method is the assessment of the reliability of the result.

2) Exponential smoothing

It is a very effective and reliable forecasting method. The main advantages of the method are the ability to take into account the weights of the initial information, the simplicity of computational operations, and the flexibility of describing various process dynamics. This method makes it possible to obtain an estimate of the trend parameters that characterize middle level process, but the trend prevailing at the time of observation. The method has found the greatest application as a method for the implementation of medium-term forecasts.

3) Moving averages

Moving average extrapolation involves calculating the average of data groups over a certain time interval. Moreover, each subsequent data group is formed by a shift of 1 year or a month. As a result, the initial fluctuation of the time series smoothing. The essence of the method lies in the fact that the predicted indicator in terms of its value will be equal to the average calculated for the last time interval.

2. Modeling methods

Modeling – this is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their counterparts - material or mental.

Modeling happens:

Structural (represents the development of many methods of multivariate analysis, namely multiple linear regression, analysis of variance, factor analysis)

Network (allows you to implement systems approach, apply mathematical methods and modern CT in the study of complex processes, improve the efficiency of planning and managing such processes), etc.

Modeling methods are the most complex forecasting method, consisting of a variety of approaches to predicting complex systems, processes and phenomena. These methods can also intersect with expert methods.

3. Main directions for improving the methodology of social forecasting

3.1 Problems of development and directions for improving the methodology of social forecasting

The main task of forecasting is the development of a forecasting methodology in order to increase the efficiency of methods and techniques for developing forecasts. The problems of forecasting include the study of the features of forecasting as a form of concretization of scientific foresight and as a specific type of scientific research, the principles of optimal selection and combination of forecasting methods, methods for checking and evaluating the reliability of forecasts, the principles of using the findings of cybernetics, probability theory, game theory, and operations research to develop forecasts. , decision theory, etc.

For forecasting to be most effective, goals must be specific and measurable. That is, for each goal, there must be criteria that would allow assessing the degree of achievement of the goal. Without these criteria, it is impossible to implement one of the main management-control functions.

Forecasting methodology plays an important role in forecasting. Among the methods most often used in forecasting social development and the standard of living of the population, the following can be distinguished: the method of expert assessments; normative method; extrapolation method; method of economic and mathematical modeling; exponential smoothing, etc.

The methodology of forecasting the social development of regions is especially important. AT last years at the level of regions (republics, krais, oblasts), work has been and is being carried out to compile short-term and medium-term forecasts of economic and social development.

The methodological prerequisites for such forecasting is that the region is an integral subsystem common system social production, performing a certain national economic function through the production of a certain number of products or services that are the subject of its specialization.

The forecast development process includes three blocks: analytical, conceptual and predictive.

When developing the concept of regional social development, 2 main stages can be distinguished:

1. formation of goals and their concretization in the form of specific tasks aimed at solving relevant problems;

2. prioritization of the goals and objectives of economic and social development and the development of a regional development strategy on this basis.

The main task within the forecast block is to determine the quantitative parameters and indicators of the regional development of the social system in the future. In this case, three types of forecasts are used: general economic forecasts for the development of the system as a whole; forecasts for the development of individual industries; forecasts for the development of individual administrative-territorial units of the region (cities, districts, etc.).

The main method for developing these forecasts is the compilation of a prospective development scenario. These scenarios describe probable situations for the future development of the regional social system and its structures, its relationship with other systems, determine the optimal indicators of regional development based on various factors and conditions.

The scenario method involves the establishment of indicators of future development critically important indicators external environment. For example, for the development of the social sphere, it is necessary to include several options for alternative indicators of the future. Regional authorities arrange so that the population of the region increased over the year by at least 1.5% or 3%. If in the process of building a scenario, it is revealed that the region will worsen ecological situation, the situation worsens, then for a more accurate and reliable forecast, it is necessary to adjust the number (3%) downward, for example, reduce it to 2%.

3.2 Predictive calculations of social development indicators

The most important socio-economic category that determines the well-being of the people is the standard of living. The standard of living is the degree to which the population is provided with material and spiritual benefits based on the existing needs and the level of economic development of the country.

According to the UN recommendation, the standard of living is measured by a system of indicators characterizing health, consumption, employment, education, housing, social security. In recent years, world practice has used the Human Development Index (HDI) to assess the level and quality of life. It includes: GDP per capita, life expectancy, average number of years of education of the population. Let's give an example of HDI calculation.

1) life expectancy of at least 25 years; maximum 85 years; RF 67.6 years.

2) real GDP per capita ($) at least $100; maximum $5448; in the Russian Federation 5184 $.

1. Calculate the life expectancy index (LE)

Iopzh \u003d (Xsr - Xmin) / (Xmax - X min)

where xsr is average duration life,

X min - the average minimum life expectancy,

Xmax is the average maximum life expectancy.

The last two indicators in the calculations take 25 and 85 years, respectively.

Iexp \u003d (67.6 - 25) / (85 - 25) \u003d 0.71 or 71 years

2. Find the GDP index:

Ivdp \u003d (5184 - 100) / (5448 - 100) \u003d 0.95

3. Calculate the HDI index:

I rchp \u003d (Iopzh + Ivvp + Iobr) / 3

where Iobr is the education index of the population

I rchp \u003d (0.71 + 0.95 + 0.888) / 3 \u003d 0.85

Answer: The HDI index is 0.85

The main task of forecasting in the field of social development is, first of all, to determine the needs of the population for the long term and the possibilities of meeting them in food, industrial goods, household services, housing, education, health services, culture, and art.

In the most general form, the sequence of making forecasts of social development and the standard of living of the population can be represented as follows.

1. The hypothesis of the formation of an increase in the standard of living is determined in general terms by three components: GDP growth, the growth of social needs, and the growth of resources for future consumption.

The forecast of the growth rates of resources for consumption is based on forecasted calculations of economic growth, increase in production efficiency, increase in investment, etc.

2. The analysis of the achieved standard of living includes a set of indicators that provide mutual linkage and a logical sequence in the development of forecasts.

The main ones among these indicators are the following:

1. socio-demographic indicators

2. working conditions

3. generalizing cost indicators of nominal and real incomes of the population

4. the state of health and its changes in the population as a whole and individual social groups;

5. indicators of consumption by the population of basic foodstuffs and non-food products;

6. General indicators of the service sector (expenditures of the population to pay for services, price index (tariffs) for certain types paid services population;

7. housing conditions and public services (average provision of the population with housing, provision with basic types of public services, etc.);

8. indicators of education (the level of education of the population, the number of students in schools, the number of students in universities and secondary specialized educational institutions, including per 10 thousand population, etc.);

9. indicators of culture (number of libraries, theaters, museums, clubs, their attendance, circulation of books, magazines, newspapers);

10. state of the environment;

11. savings of the population.

The system of forecasts of social development and standard of living follows from the set of indicators discussed above. This means that the change in each indicator must be predicted in order to obtain a sufficiently complete and objective picture of the dynamics of social development and living standards in the forecast period. For example, forecasts of the dynamics of real incomes of the population, changes in the retail price index, development of housing construction, etc. are being developed.

The most important generalizing indicator of the standard of living is the income of the population. The main components of the monetary income of the population are wages, income from entrepreneurial activity and property (profit, dividends, interest, rent), social payments (pensions, allowances, scholarships, etc.).

An important role in predicting the standard of living of the population is played by: the subsistence minimum budget; minimum consumer budget; high income budget.

The subsistence minimum budget has been used in the Russian Federation since 1992. It represents the valuation of the consumer basket, as well as mandatory payments and fees. The consumer basket is the minimum set of food products, non-food products and services necessary to maintain human health and ensure its vital activity.

The minimum consumer budget is the social minimum of funds necessary to ensure the normal functioning of a person.

The most important indicator of the standard of living is the purchasing power of the population. It shows how many conditional sets of the subsistence minimum can be purchased by the population with their average monetary income.

Taking into account the size of consumer budgets in the Russian Federation, the entire population in terms of income and consumption can be divided into the following groups.

First group- the poor strata of the population, whose monthly per capita income is below the cost estimate of the subsistence minimum budget. The living wage in Russia today averages 5187 rubles.

Second group- low-income strata of the population, whose monthly per capita income is in the interval between the cost estimate of the subsistence minimum budget and the cost estimate of the minimum consumer budget.

Third group- medium or relatively wealthy segments of the population, whose monthly per capita income is in the interval between the cost estimate of the minimum consumer budget and the cost estimate of the budget of high prosperity.

Fourth group Wealthy and wealthy people whose monthly per capita income exceeds the budget of high prosperity.

Forecast estimates of improving the standard of living of the population of the Russian Federation, as a rule, are linked to the achievement of macroeconomic stabilization and sustainable economic growth.

Conclusion

Forecasting is one of the most important stages of project activity. Mankind, having forecasts, consciously seeks and finds ways to exit. First - hunting and gathering, then - the transition to agriculture and pastoralism, from nomadic to settled way life, from villages to urban areas; development of the resources of the World Ocean, etc. Forecasting in a broad sense is a prediction, in general, of any information received about the future. In a narrow sense - a special scientific study, the subject of which are the prospects for the development of phenomena.

One of the most important types of forecasting is social forecasting - this is the prediction of trends and prospects for the possible development of social systems, objects, social phenomena, processes. The object of social forecasting can be all social systems, all phenomena occurring in society.

Forecasting is an integral part of the process of developing a social project. In isolation from design, forecasting loses its practical meaning. Social forecasting makes it possible to take into account various options for the movement and development of social systems. The development of correct forecasts makes it possible to make management more perfect, and design more efficient.

Methods of social forecasting are a set of techniques and ways of thinking that allow, based on the analysis of retrospective data, exogenous (external) and endogenous (internal) connections of the object of forecasting, as well as their measurements within the framework of the phenomenon or process under consideration, to derive judgments of a certain reliability regarding it (the object) future development.

Intuitive forecasting methods are used in cases where it is impossible to take into account the influence of many factors due to the insignificant complexity of the forecasting object. In this case, expert estimates are used. At the same time, individual and collective expert assessments are distinguished.

The group of formalized methods includes subgroups: extrapolation and modeling. The first subgroup includes methods: least squares, exponential smoothing, moving averages. To the second - structural, network and matrix modeling.

List of used literature

1.Arzhenovsky S.V. Methods of socio-economic forecasting: Textbook. - M .: Publishing house "Dashkov and Co"; Rostov n/a, 2008

2.Safronova V.M. Forecasting and modeling in social work: Proc. allowance for students. higher textbook establishments. - M .: Publishing Center "Academy", 2002

3. Bestuzhev-Lada I.V. Social forecasting. Lecture course. - M .: Pedagogical Society of Russia 2002

4.Safronova V.M. Forecasting and modeling in social work: Proc. allowance for students. higher textbook establishments. - M .: Publishing Center "Academy", 2002

When forecasting, qualitative and quantitative research methods are used. The forecasting method is a method of studying the object of forecasting, aimed at developing a forecast. A set of special rules, techniques and methods constitutes a forecasting methodology.

The most common qualitative forecasting methods include the method of expert assessments.

The method of expert estimates is mainly used in long-term forecasts.

Forecasting is carried out on the basis of the judgment of an expert (a group of experts) regarding the task. These are informal methods. An expert is a qualified specialist on a specific problem who can make a reliable conclusion about the object of forecasting.

In essence, the opinion of a specialist is the result of a mental analysis and generalization of processes related to the past, present and future, based on their own experience, qualifications and intuition.

They are used if the object of forecasting and planning is complex, new, or there is uncertainty in its development.

Expert assessments can be individual or collective. The methods of individual expert assessments include: *

analytical method. Allows you to carry out a logical analysis of any predictable situation and present this analysis in the form of an analytical note. Assumes independent work an expert on the analysis of trends, assessment of the state and development paths of the predicted object; *

interview method. Allows for direct contact between an expert and a specialist according to the “question-answer” scheme, during which the forecaster, in accordance with a pre-developed program, puts questions to the expert regarding the prospects for the development of the predicted object; *

scripting method. Based on the definition of the logic of the development of a process or phenomenon in time under various conditions. The main purpose of the scenario is to determine the general goal of the development of the predicted object, phenomenon and the formulation of criteria for evaluating the upper levels of the “goal tree”. A scenario is a picture that reflects a consistent detailed solution of a problem, identification of possible obstacles, detection of serious shortcomings in order to resolve the issue of a possible termination of ongoing or completed ongoing work on the predicted object; *

goal tree method. It is used in the analysis of systems, objects, processes in which several structural or hierarchical levels can be distinguished. The "tree of goals" is built by sequentially highlighting smaller and smaller components at lower levels.

The methods of collective expert assessments include: *

method of commissions (collective meeting). It consists in determining the consistency of the opinions of experts on the promising directions for the development of the object of forecasting, previously formulated by individual specialists. This means that the development of a given object cannot be determined by other methods. A survey of experts is being conducted with further processing of the survey materials. The final score of the survey is displayed either as an average judgment, or as an arithmetic mean, or as a weighted average of the score. *

the "Delphi" method consists in organizing a systematic collection of expert assessments, their mathematical and statistical processing and consistent adjustment by experts of their assessments based on the results of each processing cycle. Its features lie in the anonymity of experts, a multi-round procedure for interviewing experts through a questionnaire, providing experts with information, including its exchange between experts after each round of the survey while maintaining the anonymity of the assessments, substantiating the answers of experts at the request of the organizers. The method is designed to obtain relatively reliable information in situations of its acute insufficiency. *

brainstorming method. It is advisable to determine possible options for the development of the forecasting object and obtain productive results in a short time by involving all experts in an active creative process. The essence of the method is to mobilize the creative potential of experts during the "brainstorming" and generate ideas with further destruction (destruction, criticism) of these ideas and the formulation of counter-ideas.

The most common quantitative forecasting methods include: *

extrapolation method. This is a method in which predicted indicators are calculated as a continuation of the dynamic series for the future according to the identified pattern of development. In fact, extrapolation is the transfer of past patterns and trends to the future based on the relationships of indicators of one series. The method allows you to find the level of the series beyond its limits, in the future. Extrapolation is effective for short-term forecasts if the time series data is strong and stable.

To determine the forecast by extrapolation, it is necessary to determine the average annual growth over the past years (formula 1) and extrapolate to future periods (formula 2).

The average annual growth rate (coefficient) is calculated by the formula:

where is the average annual growth rate;

n is the number of years between the base and reporting years,

The value of the predicted indicator in the reporting year,

The value of the forecast indicator in the base year.

Extrapolation Method :

If the preservation of past and present development trends for the future is expected, then one speaks of a formal extrapolation. If the actual development is linked with hypotheses about the dynamics of the development process, taking into account the physical and logical essence, then one speaks of predictive extrapolation. Predictive extrapolation can be in the form of a trend, envelope curves, correlation and regression dependencies, can be based on factor analysis, etc. Extrapolation of a complex order can develop into modeling; *

trend extrapolation method. For this type of extrapolation, as a trend, it is typical to find a smooth line that reflects the patterns of development over time. A trend is a continuation of a trend. Patterns of the past are carried forward into the future. Applicable in short-term forecasting for each specific indicator (separately). The most applicable methods and the most inexpensive. The trend is usually applied as the main component of the forecast time series, on which other components, such as seasonal fluctuations, are superimposed.

Trend-based extrapolation includes: ?

collection of information on the empirical series of the indicator for past periods; ?

selection of the optimal type of function that describes the specified series, taking into account its smoothing and alignment; ?

calculation of the parameters of the selected extrapolation function; ?

calculation of the forecast for the future for the selected function.

normative method (interpolation). The ways and terms of achieving the possible states of the phenomenon, taken as the goal, are determined. We are talking about predicting the achievement of desired states of the phenomenon on the basis of predetermined norms, ideals, incentives and goals. Such a forecast answers the question: in what ways can the desired be achieved? The normative method is more often used for programmatic or targeted forecasts. Both a quantitative expression of the standard and a certain scale of the possibilities of the evaluation function are used. In the case of using a quantitative expression, for example, physiological and rational norms for the consumption of certain food and non-food products developed by specialists for various groups of the population, it is possible to determine the level of consumption of these goods for the years preceding the achievement of the specified norm. Such calculations are called interpolation. Interpolation is a way of calculating indicators that are missing in the time series of a phenomenon, based on an established relationship. Taking the actual value of the indicator and the value of its standards as the extreme members of the dynamic series, it is possible to determine the magnitude of the values ​​within this series. Therefore, interpolation is considered a normative method. The previously given formula (1), used in extrapolation, can be used in interpolation, where Y will no longer characterize the actual data, but the indicator standard; *

methods of regression analysis. The dependence of a certain quantity on another or others is investigated, and this dependence is transferred to the future. Used for objects with a complex and multifactorial structure. Used in medium and long-term forecasting. *

analogy method. It involves the transfer of knowledge about one subject (phenomenon) to another. Such a transfer is true with a certain degree of probability, since the similarity between phenomena is rarely complete. Simulation and experiment necessarily use the method of analogy; *

mathematical modeling. Modeling is perhaps the most complex forecasting method. Means the description of an economic phenomenon through mathematical formulas, equations and inequalities. The mathematical apparatus must accurately reflect the forecast background, although it is quite difficult to fully reflect the depth and complexity of the forecasted object. The term "model" is derived from the Latin word modelus, which means "measure". Modeling would be more correct to consider not as a forecasting method, but as a method of studying a similar phenomenon on a model.

CONTROL QUESTIONS: 1.

What explains the uncertainty of the future? 2.

Sequence of development of forecasts. 3.

What does forecast lead time include? 4.

Name the forms of foresight.

FUTUROLOGY(from lat. futurum - the future and other Greek logos - teaching), in the broad sense of the word - future research, vision of the future of mankind. In a narrow sense - field of knowledge about the prospects for the development of man and society. Futurology can be religious, artistic or scientific.

FORECASTING(from the Greek. prognoses, foresight, prediction), development of a forecast - a probable judgment about the state of a phenomenon in the future. In a narrower sense, forecasting is a special scientific study of the prospects for the development of a phenomenon, mainly with quantitative estimates, indications of conditional terms for changes in this phenomenon.. Forecasting can be carried out: household level (folk omens), in fiction(intuition, fiction) or in strict rational forms(scientific forecasting). Forecasting regarding the development of social phenomena called SOCIAL PREDICTION.

The future state and development of society has always been of interest to man. After all, forecasting in the social sphere is interconnected with goal-setting, planning, programming, design, and management. However, is social forecasting possible in principle?

There is an opinion that a rational, scientific social forecast it can not be, since history and its development are influenced by many factors, which cannot be taken into account. In addition, irrational, difficult to explain, and, finally, random phenomena take place in history. We can agree with these arguments. Indeed, it is impossible to unequivocally state social facts, events and processes that will take place in the future - it is legitimate to talk only about what can happen in the future and how likely is it? Most researchers share this position. In the 1940s, there appeared FORECASTING – the science of the laws and methods of developing forecasts. The main task of forecasting is the development of a special (private) forecasting methodology in order to increase the effectiveness of real social forecasts. The problems of forecasting include the study of the features of the object of forecasting, methods for assessing the reliability of forecasts.

In general, social forecasting should contain answers to the following questions: 1) What may actually happen in the future.? 2) When this is to be expected? 3) What kind real forms it can take? 4)

What is the likelihood of this happening? 5 ) What kind consequences for the individual and society may have this event?

Types of forecasts. In the theory and practice of forecasting, various types of forecasts are known. You can name the most common of them.

1. Search forecasts- (search for new alternatives, directions, trends).

2. Regulatory forecasts- (forecasting the possibility of the emergence of new norms, rules, traditions).

3. Analytical forecasts -(search for probable consequences from real causes).

4. Forecasts - warnings– forecasting the undesirable development of social phenomena.

Distinguish three main methods of forecasting: extrapolation, modeling and expertise. However, such a classification is very conditional, since predictive models represent extrapolation and expert estimates. In turn, expert estimates represent the results of extrapolation and modeling, etc.

Various types of forecasting are used forecasting methods. This is, first of all, general scientific methods: induction and deduction, analysis and synthesis, comparison and analogy. In addition, very common methods of concrete sciences: statistical, economic, sociological etc. Sometimes several methods are combined into complex methods: 1) extrapolation method(transferring the structure, development trends of some systems to others). 2) Method of historical analogy(the study of similar moments in the course of historical development). 3) Modeling method(creation of artificial social situations that take into account the main operating factors). 4) Future Scenario Method(the study of the likely development of social systems). 5) Method of expert assessments(attracting specialists from different branches of knowledge for an independent assessment of social phenomena).

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Introduction

2. The essence and general characteristics of social forecasting

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

social prediction modeling expertise

At the present stage, the organization of the activities of social spheres occurs under the influence of existing social problems in society. Basically, these are the problems of socio-economic and political instability in modern Russia. Determining short and long term programs requires innovative action and broad modern thinking based on the integration of the sciences. The activities of social services should be predictable and projectable at the stage of formation, implementation and development. Forecasting occupies a particularly important place here as a high-tech method of scientific analysis and foresight.

The word "prediction" comes from a Greek word meaning foresight or prediction. However, social forecasting is not one of the types of foresight, but the next stage, which is associated with process management.

1. Emergence of social forecasting

Society's interest in social forecasting is historically associated with attempts to predict the occurrence of certain events, as well as the development of various processes. In the conditions of global wars and local military conflicts, economic and political upheavals, with which the whole world history In the 20th century, the appeal to social forecasting was predominantly of an emergency nature. The scientific need for forecasting was formulated by the American scientist N. Wiener in the form of the foundations of cybernetics in the 40s. XX century. In 1968, when the entire world community was concerned about the ongoing threats of the outbreak of a third world war, the prominent public figure and industrialist A. Peccei founded the Club of Rome, an international organization of scientists, politicians and entrepreneurs, the purpose of which was to draw attention to strategic problems and prospects world development. The reports prepared for the club by the prominent scientists J. Forrester, D. Tinbergen, B. Gavrilishin and others gave impetus to the development of science.

In the development of forecasting, the main time stages can be distinguished.

The beginning of predictive research dates back to the 1950s, when simple predictive models began to be widely used. In the 1960s - 1970s. there was a kind of "forecasting boom" - theoretical questions were developed, new methods were developed, complex forecasting models were created. From the late 1970s - early 1980s. the next stage in the development of scientific forecasting is coming, the achievements of forecasting are used in the activities of enterprises and organizations of various profiles.

Today social forecasting is the most important technology of social work.

2. The essence and general characteristics of social forecasting

In the most general sense, forecasting means developing a forecast in the form of formulating a probabilistic judgment about the state of a phenomenon in the future.

In a narrow sense, forecasting means a special scientific study of the prospects for the development of a phenomenon, mainly with quantitative estimates and indicating more or less certain periods of change in this phenomenon.

The forecast does not provide solutions to the problems of the future. Its task is to contribute to the scientific substantiation of development plans and programs. Forecasting characterizes a possible set of necessary ways and means of implementing the planned program of action.

A forecast should mean a probabilistic statement about the future with a relatively a high degree reliability. Its difference from foresight lies in the fact that the latter is interpreted as an improbable statement about the future, based on absolute certainty, or (another approach) is a logically constructed model of a possible future with an as yet undetermined level of certainty. It is easy to see that the degree of reliability of statements about the future is used as the basis for the distinction between terms. At the same time, it is obvious that forecasting proceeds from the ambiguity of development.

The forecast has a specific character and is necessarily associated with certain quantitative estimates. In accordance with this, the author refers the expected number of crimes in the next calendar year to the category of forecasts, and the early release of a prisoner under certain conditions - to the category of predictions. It can be concluded that a prediction is a qualitative assessment of the future, and a forecast is a quantitative assessment of the future.

Social forecasting is the definition of development options and the choice of the most acceptable, optimal based on resources, time and social forces that can ensure their implementation. Social forecasting is the work with alternatives, a deep analysis of the degree of probability and the multivariance of possible solutions.

Schematically, the process of social forecasting can be represented as follows:

1) the choice of the object of social forecasting: it can be any social object, from an individual to humanity as an integral part of the noosphere;

2) the choice of the direction of research: economic, legal, social, etc., at different levels of the social sphere it is very difficult to maintain a “clean” line of predictive research, so a significant part of the research is complex;

3) preparation and processing of information on the forecast base, information that meets the requirements is one of the guarantees of the reliability of the forecast, and therefore the key point of social forecasting;

4) the choice of a forecasting method, one of the methods or a set of methods in a certain sequence, meets the requirement of scientific research.

5) actually predictive research;

6) processing of results, analysis of the received information related to the research problem;

7) determination of the reliability of the forecast.

The opportunity to evaluate the forecast follow-up is provided only after the lapse of the time for which this forecast was calculated.

At the same time, it should be noted that there are specific features social forecasting. They can be identified as follows.

First, the goal statement here is relatively general and abstract: it allows for a high degree of probability. The purpose of forecasting is based on the analysis of the state and behavior of the system in the past and the study of possible trends in the change of factors affecting the system under consideration, to correctly determine the probabilistic quantitative and qualitative parameters of its development in the future, to reveal the options for the situation in which the system will find itself.

Secondly, social forecasting does not have a directive character.

In conclusion, we can say that the qualitative difference between a variant forecast and a specific plan is that the forecast provides information to justify the decision and choose planning methods. It indicates the possibility of one or another development path in the future, and the plan expresses the decision on which of the possibilities the society will implement.

There is a noticeable difference between forecasting within the natural and technical sciences, on the one hand, and within the social sciences, on the other.

The weather forecast, for example, can be set with a high degree of probability.

But at the same time, it cannot be canceled by a managerial decision. Within small limits, a person can consciously change the state of the weather (for example, it is possible to clear the sky of clouds in connection with a major public holiday or stimulate avalanches in the mountains), but these are very rare cases of counteraction to the forecast. Basically, a person has to adapt his actions to the weather (take an umbrella if rain is expected; put on warm clothes if it is cold, etc.).

The specificity of social forecasting lies in the fact that the prediction of social phenomena and processes and their management are closely related. Having predicted an undesirable social process, we can stop it or modify it in such a way that it does not show its negative qualities. Having predicted a positive process, we can actively contribute to its development, contribute to its expansion in the territory of action, coverage of people, duration of manifestation, etc.

Social innovation has specific features among other innovations: if in the scientific, technical, economic spheres the meaning of innovation is to achieve greater efficiency, then in the social sphere, establishing efficiency is problematic.

1. In the social sphere, the improvement of the position of some people can create tension (sometimes only psychological) for others. Social innovation is evaluated through the prism of the value-normative system.

2. The successful solution of some social problems may give rise to other problems or turn out to be a success not in the sense in which the task was understood.

The forecast is a multivariate hypothesis about the possible results and ways of development of the object under study (sphere, industry, type of activity, etc.). The purpose of the forecast is the desire to provide answers to the range of questions that make up the essence of the problem.

Social forecasting is the forecasting of everything social, everything connected with society, social relations, in the center of which is a person.

Depending on the time period for which the forecast is made, they are:

- short-term (from 1 month to 1 year);

- medium-term (from 1 year to 5 years);

- long-term (from 5 years to 15 years);

- long-term (over 15 years).

The forecasting process itself involves: conducting a brief retrospective analysis of the forecasted object; description of the current state of the object (comparative analysis of observed trends in domestic and foreign experience); problem identification:

- already decided, but their implementation and implementation is just beginning;

- those problems that have been solved, but have not found practical use;

- assessments of experts in leading scientific research in this field.

Thus, social forecasting makes it possible to foresee the results and timely eliminate the causes of social problems.

3. Methods of social forecasting

Currently, there are about 150 forecasting methods and procedures. They are divided into various groups: general scientific, interscientific, particular scientific, which are based on both empirical and theoretical methods.

General scientific methods include: analysis, synthesis, interpolation, induction, deduction, analogy, experimentation, etc. Interscientific methods are represented by brainstorming, the Delphi method, they also include utopia and fantasy. Some of the methods are based on the processing of scientific and technical information (forecasting the development of science and technology) and on various theories (morphological analysis, envelope curves, based on resolving matrices, trial and error, etc.). Private scientific methods present predictions from isobaric maps, tests, etc.

The increased interest in the knowledge of the social encourages the development of more and more new technologies of social forecasting, accumulates a fairly large and capacious scientific potential that reveals the content of both social positions and the sociological nature of problems. Step by step creation of a paradigm is illogical by its very nature. The difficulty lies in presenting the characteristics of such technologies, not in their application.

There are three main specific methods of forecasting: extrapolation, modeling, expertise.

The classification of forecasting into extrapolation, modeling and expertise is rather conditional, since predictive models involve extrapolation and expert assessments, the latter are the results of extrapolation and modeling, etc. In the development of forecasts, methods of analogy, deduction, induction, various statistical methods, economic , sociological, etc.

1. Extrapolation method.

This method was one of the historically first methods that became widely used in social forecasting. Extrapolation is the distribution of conclusions made in the study of one part of a phenomenon (process) to another part, including the unobservable. In the social field, it is a way of predicting future events and states, based on the assumption that some trends that have manifested themselves in the past and in the present will continue.

Extrapolation example: a series of numbers 1, 4, 9, 16 suggests that the next number will be 25, since the beginning of the series is the squares of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4. We extrapolated the found principle to the unwritten part of the series.

Extrapolation is widely used in demography when calculating the future size of the population, its sex and age and family structures, etc. Using this method, the future rejuvenation or aging of the population can be calculated, the characteristics of fertility, mortality, marriage rates are given in periods that are several years away from the present. decades.

With the help of computer programs (Exel, etc.) it is possible to build an extrapolation in the form of a graph in accordance with the available formulas.

However, in social forecasting, the possibilities of extrapolation as a forecasting method are somewhat limited. This is due to a number of reasons that are related to the fact that social processes develop over time. This limits the possibilities of their accurate modeling. So, up to a certain point, the process can slowly increase, and then there comes a period rapid development, which ends with the saturation stage. After that, the process stabilizes again. If such features of the course of social processes are not taken into account, then the application of the extrapolation method can lead to an error.

2. Modeling. Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their analogues (models) - real or mental.

An analogue of an object can be, for example, its layout (reduced, proportionate or enlarged), drawing, diagram, etc. In the social sphere, mental models are more often used. Working with models allows you to transfer experimentation from a real social object to its mentally constructed duplicate and avoid the risk of an unsuccessful, all the more dangerous for people, management decision.

The main feature of a mental model is that it can be subject to any kind of tests, which practically consist in changing the parameters of itself and the environment in which it (as an analogue of a real object) exists. This is the great advantage of the model. It can also act as a model, a kind of ideal type, an approximation to which may be desirable for the creators of the project.

In social design, it is more accurate to say that a model created on the basis of a plan and preliminary information makes it possible to identify, clarify and limit the goals of the project being developed.

At the same time, the disadvantage of the model is its simplification. Certain properties and characteristics of a real object in it are coarsened or not taken into account at all as insignificant. If this were not done, the work with the model would be extremely complicated, and the model itself would not contain dense, compact information about the object. And yet here lie possible mistakes modeling applications to social engineering and forecasting.

"rooted with school years the notion that a model can only be mathematical is profoundly mistaken. The model can also be formulated in natural language.”

This circumstance is important to take into account in social design. Modeling techniques can facilitate design tasks and make the project visible. Many people hold a sheet of paper in front of them while talking and, as they present their point of view, they fix the main points, mark the links between them with arrows and other signs, etc. This is one of the common forms of visualization widely used in modeling. Visualization is able to more clearly reveal the essence of the problem and clearly indicate in which directions it can be solved and where to expect success and where failure.

The value of non-mathematical modeling for social design is very high. The model allows not only to develop an effective management decision, but to simulate conflict situations, probable when making a decision, and ways to reach agreement.

In fact, any kind of business games are simulations. The analysis and modeling of social systems has recently been developed into an autonomous sociological discipline with original mathematical software.

3. Expertise. Expertise is a special method of forecasting. In social design, it is used not only to solve problems of predictive justification, but also wherever it is necessary to deal with issues with a low level of certainty of the parameters to be studied. Expertise in the context of research on artificial intelligence is interpreted as the solution of a problem that is difficult to formalize (or poorly formalized). Arose in connection with the problems of programming, this understanding of expertise has acquired a system-wide character. It is the difficulty of formalizing a certain task that makes other methods of its study ineffective, except for expertise. As a way to describe the problem by formal means is found, the role of accurate measurements and calculations increases and, on the contrary, the efficiency of using expert assessments decreases.

So, expertise is a study of a problem that is difficult to formalize, which is carried out by forming an opinion (preparing a conclusion) of a specialist who is able to make up for the lack or non-systematic nature of information on the issue under study with his knowledge, intuition, experience in solving similar problems and relying on "common sense".

A social project is subject to expertise throughout its development and implementation.

At the concept development stage, many indicators are set by experts to measure the effectiveness of the project.

The assessment of the viability of a project relies heavily on expert judgment both in relation to the project and in relation to the social environment in which it is being implemented.

Diagnostic and predictive research in the social field is impossible without the use of expert methods.

When considering the prepared text of the project by tender commissions, investors, state authorities and bodies local government, other organizations that make management decisions on the project, an examination is also carried out.

The project is evaluated by experts within the framework of current control over its implementation.

Finally, the completion of the project, the establishment of whether it was possible to implement it in accordance with the plan, also involves an examination.

Conclusion

Forecasting is one of the most important stages of project activity. Forecasting in a broad sense is foresight, in general, obtaining any information about the future. In a narrow sense - a special scientific study, the subject of which are the prospects for the development of phenomena.

The main task of forecasting is the scientific development of forecasts. The forecast describes the future state of the system. Forecast as a cognitive model has a descriptive (descriptive) character.

Forecasting is based on three complementary sources of information about the future:

- extrapolation into the future of trends, patterns of development that are well known in the past and present;

- modeling of research objects, their presentation in a simplified form, a schematic form, convenient for obtaining predictive conclusions;

c) predictive assessment of the expert.

The practical purpose of forecasting is the preparation of reasonable proposals, projects, programs, recommendations and assessments about:

- in what direction is it desirable to develop objects in the study area;

How can development really take place?

- what is the mechanism of overcoming negative tendencies.

In general terms, we can talk about two types of tasks: defining and motivating the development goal; determination of means, ways, ways to achieve goals.

The full cycle of predictive research includes: study of the problem situation in theory and practice; analysis of pre-forecast and forecast background; definition of goals and objectives; hypotheses; selection of research methods and techniques that have the necessary prognostic potential; conducting experimental testing of hypotheses and verification of research results; formulation of conclusions and proposals.

Bibliography

Bestuzhev-Lada I.V. Predictive substantiation of social innovations. M., 1995

Safronova V.M. Forecasting and modeling in social work: Proc. allowance for students. higher textbook establishments. - M.: Publishing Center "Academy", 2002.

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