Models and methods of making managerial decisions and their use in domestic management. Process and methods of management decisions

12.10.2019

All methods of making managerial decisions can be combined into three groups: informal (heuristic), collective, quantitative.

Informal (heuristic) decision-making methods. Informal methods are based on the analytical abilities of decision makers. This is a set of logical techniques and methods of choice optimal solutions leader, theoretical comparison of alternatives based on experience. Informal methods are based mainly on the manager's intuition. Their advantage is that they are taken promptly; the disadvantage is that these methods do not guarantee against making wrong decisions, since intuition can fail the manager.

Collective methods of discussion and decision-making: meeting, meeting, work in the commission, etc. The main point in the collective work on the implementation of management decisions is the definition of the circle of persons - participants in this procedure. The main criteria for the formation of such a group are competence, the ability to solve creative problems, constructive thinking and communication skills.

The most common method of collective preparation of managerial decisions is " brainstorm", or "brain attack "- joint generation of new ideas and subsequent decision-making. If a complex problem is to be solved, a group of people gathers to propose any solutions to a particular problem. The main condition for "brainstorming" is the creation of an environment that is as favorable as possible for the free generation of ideas. To achieve this, it is forbidden to refute or criticize the idea, no matter how fantastic it may be. All ideas are recorded and then analyzed by experts.

An example of collective decision making is Delphi method named after Greek city Delphi, famous for the wise men who lived there. The Delphi method is a multi-level survey procedure. The essence of the method is that each expert answers questions independently and anonymously. Then all the answers are analyzed and presented in summary form to each expert. After each round, the survey data is finalized and the results are reported to the experts indicating the location of the assessments. The first round of the survey is conducted without argumentation, in the second, a different answer is subject to argumentation, or the expert can change the assessment. After the assessments stabilize, the survey is terminated and the decision proposed by the experts or the corrected decision is adopted.

Among the collective decision-making methods there are japanese ring decision making system - "kingise", the essence of which is that a draft innovation is being prepared for consideration. It is transferred to persons for discussion according to the list compiled by the head. Everyone should consider the proposed solution and give their comments in writing. After that, a meeting is held, to which, as a rule, those specialists are invited, whose opinion is not entirely clear to the leader. Experts choose their solution according to individual preferences.

And if they do not match, then a preference vector arises, which is determined using one of the following principles:

Dictator - the opinion of one person is taken as the basis;

Depending on the type of mathematical functions underlying the models, there are:

Linear modeling, which uses linear dependencies;

Dynamic programming, which allows you to introduce additional variables in the process of solving problems;

Probabilistic and statistical models implemented in the methods of queuing theory;

Game theory - modeling of such situations, decision-making in which should take into account the discrepancy between the interests of various units;

Simulation models make it possible to experimentally carry out the implementation of solutions, change the initial prerequisites, and clarify the requirements for them.

Test questions:

1. What do you understand by management decision? How is it different from the decisions we make in everyday life?

2. Give a classification and describe the main types of management decisions.

3. Describe the types of management decisions proposed by A. Meskon and F. Khedoury.

4. Give a classification of managerial decisions based on the psychological characteristics of the leader.

5. Name the main stages of the process of making managerial decisions. Describe these steps.

6. What groups of management decision-making methods do you know? Give examples of situations in which one or another decision-making method should be used.

7. Give the characteristic to various collective methods of decision-making.

8. What is the difference between decisions made under conditions of certainty and under conditions of risk?

Task for independent work : study the requirements for management decisions and the factors of effectiveness of decisions made. Analyze the stages of making managerial decisions known to you.

Method - in the narrow sense - a regulatory norm or rule, a certain way, method, method of solving problems of a theoretical, practical, cognitive, managerial, everyday nature.

Decision method - ways, methods of decision-making

Decision-making methods can be broken down into 3 groups:

Informal (heuristic) decision-making methods.

Collective methods of discussion and decision-making

Quantitative methods of decision making.

Informal (heuristic) decision-making methods. Management practice shows that when making and implementing decisions, a certain part of managers use informal methods, which are based on the analytical abilities of decision makers. This is a set of logical techniques and methods for choosing the best decisions by the manager through a theoretical comparison of alternatives, taking into account the accumulated experience.

For the most part, informal methods are based on the manager's intuition. Their advantage is that they are accepted promptly, the disadvantage is that informal methods do not guarantee against choosing erroneous (inefficient) decisions, since intuition can sometimes fail a manager.

Heuristic methods are based on logic, common sense and experience in RUR, in which new significant information is revealed. They use the Socratic method - to extract information hidden in a person with the help of skillful leading questions. The methods are used when the conditions for the use of formalized RRM methods are unavailable or absent. The basis of heuristic methods is induction method, i.e. transition from the particular to the general. In this case, the problem is divided into several relatively simple sub-problems. For each sub-problem, a set of tasks and a set of corresponding solutions are formed. It is believed that with the successful implementation of all solutions, the problem will be resolved as a whole. These methods j are almost entirely related to the art of management. These methods are effective if the manager was able to divide the problem in such a way that the resulting sub-problems are typical (regular) for a particular company and there is a standard methodology for their implementation.

The development of management solutions for non-standard, usually creative tasks is a rather difficult task. There are quite a lot of such tasks in management practice. This is due to the new conditions in which a person or team falls into production activities. Usually such problems are solved gradually by discussion, concentration of ideas, development of new approaches and stimulation of thinking. It is no coincidence that meetings, meetings, briefings, planning meetings and other forms of discussion of new problems and the development of solutions have become firmly established in the practice of managers. At such events, managers and specialists take such effective solutions, which even one very smart person cannot do. The vast majority of discoveries and inventions were made during collective discussion or at their suggestion, and famous words: "eureka" and "heuristics" gave the name to these methods.

Meetings and meetings can be held in two ways:

without preparation and with preparation. Without preparation, such events are ineffective and do not give satisfaction to their participants. Often employees are reluctant to go to meetings and conferences. Parkinson's law is known that the effectiveness of a meeting is inversely proportional to the time spent and the number of people invited. Prepared collections are based on various methods, including heuristics. The heuristic consists in consistently highlighting goals and situations, as well as reducing their differences.

Characteristic sets of heuristic methods

There are many sets of heuristic methods. For example,

Generalization of the problem;

specification of the task;

· Formulation of the inverse problem;

· Criticism of obvious solutions;

· Search for introduced conditions;

· Movement from the end to the beginning;

· Convergence of data and purpose;

· Recoding the text into the model;

· Use of similar tasks consideration from different sides;

· Analysis of the conditions of the analysis of the conflict;

· Promotion of any ideas;

· Restructuring.

Inclusion in another structure;

· Proposing opposite hypotheses;

Break in solving several tasks;

· Getting used to the image of the phenomena of the problem;

Regulating the level of self-confidence;

· Moving from general goals to specific ones;

· Symbolic record of conditions;

· Determining the scope of the search for the unknown;

· Involvement in activities;

Introduction of additional elements or relationships;

Dividing the task into parts;

Identification of dominant goals;

· Summarizing under logical categories;

· Summarizing under dialectical categories;

· Resonance;

· Replacing terms with definitions.

These techniques make up three phases of solution development: analysis of the conditions of the problem, search for a solution, verification of the solution.

Collective methods of discussion and decision-making.

The main point in the process of collective work on the adoption and implementation of management decisions is the definition of the circle of persons participating in this procedure. Most often, this is a temporary team, which includes, as a rule, both leaders and performers.

The main criteria for the formation of such a group is competence, the ability to solve creative problems, constructive thinking and communication skills.

Collective forms of group work can be different: a meeting, a meeting, work in a commission, etc.

The most common method of collective preparation of managerial decisions is "brainstorm" , or "brainstorming" (joint generation of ideas and subsequent decision making).
If a complex problem is to be solved, then a group of people gathers to offer their own solutions to a particular problem. The main condition for "brainstorming" is the creation of an environment that is as favorable as possible for the free generation of ideas. To achieve this, it is forbidden to refute or criticize the idea, no matter how fantastic it may seem at first glance. All ideas are recorded and then analyzed by experts.
Delphi method got its name from the Greek city of Delphi, famous for the sages who lived there - predictors of the future.

The Delphi method is a multi-round questionnaire procedure. After each round, the survey data is finalized and the results are reported to the experts indicating the location of the assessments. The first round of the survey is conducted without argumentation, in the second - a different answer is subject to argumentation, or an expert can change the assessment. After the assessments stabilize, the survey is terminated and the decision proposed by the experts or the corrected decision is adopted.

Japanese, so-called ring, decision-making system - "kingise", the essence of which is that a draft innovation is being prepared for consideration. It is submitted for discussion to persons according to the list compiled by the head. Everyone should consider the proposed solution and give their comments in writing. This is followed by a meeting. As a rule, those specialists are invited whose opinion is not entirely clear to the manager.

Experts choose their solution according to individual preferences. And if they do not match, then a preference vector arises, which is determined using one of the following principles:

- majority vote principle- choose the solution that has the most more supporters;
- dictator principle- the opinion of one person of the group is taken as the basis. This principle is typical for military organizations, as well as for decision-making in emergency situations;
- Cournot principle- is used when there are no coalitions, i.e. proposed number of solutions, equal to the number experts. In this case, it is necessary to find a solution that would meet the requirement of individual rationality without infringing on the interests of each individual;
- Pareto principle- is used when making decisions when all experts form a single whole, one coalition. In this case, the optimal solution will be one that is unprofitable to change all members of the group at once, since it unites them in achieving a common goal;
- edgeworth principle- is used if the group consists of several coalitions, each of which is unprofitable to cancel its decision. Knowing the preferences of coalitions, it is possible to make the optimal decision without harming each other.

3. Quantitative Methods decision making. They are based on a scientific and practical approach, which involves the choice of optimal solutions by processing (with the help of computers and EMMs) large amounts of information.
Depending on the type of mathematical functions underlying the models, there are:

- linear modeling- linear dependencies are used;

- dynamic programming– allows you to introduce additional variables in the process of solving problems;

- probabilistic and statistical models– are implemented in the methods of queuing theory; etc.

Conclusion

The unstable economic and political situation forces enterprises to make various decisions more carefully and carefully, draw up development plans, assessing the existing reality.

Many studies conducted in the US and European countries show that even successful businessmen make informed and meaningful decisions only half the time. One can only wonder how some businessmen make decisions whose failure is visible even to an inexperienced person. But the improvement in the quality of decisions taken by economic managers is the most important reserve for raising the efficiency of all social production.

Modeling makes it possible to foresee the course of events and development trends inherent in the controlled system, to find out the conditions for its existence and to establish the mode of operation, taking into account the influence of various factors. At the same time, at first glance, it may seem that the more factors are taken into account in the model, the better the model itself. In fact, a detailed model is not always appropriate, since it unnecessarily complicates the model and makes it difficult to analyze it.

Improving the process of making managerial decisions and, accordingly, improving the quality of decisions made is achieved through the use of a scientific approach, models and methods of decision making. A model is a representation of a system, idea, or object. It is necessary to use models due to the complexity of organizations, the inability to conduct experiments in real world the need to look to the future. Main types of models: physical, analog and mathematical (symbolic). Relying on methods, the manager spends much less time making decisions. Those. management decision-making methods save both time and money.

It seems to me that such unsatisfactory results are primarily due to ignorance or neglect of the theory of decision making in management. Many managers take managerial decision making for granted.

The purpose of this course work was to highlight the importance and necessity of paying special attention to the process of making managerial decisions.

Application

An example of solving a multicriteria problem using the hierarchy analysis method developed by the American scientist Saaty in the 80s. 2

The vice president of the company needs to select a candidate for the position of director of marketing. Among the available two candidates, it is necessary to choose the one who would be the best according to three criteria:

A - the makings of a leader;

B - educational level and experience;

C - ability to administrative work.

The degree of importance of one or another criterion in relation to others was defined as:

B>A: weak preference (3);

C>A: preference between weak and strong (4);

B>S: preference between weak and indifferent (2).

The preference of one or another candidate for each of the criteria is defined as:

A: 1>2: strong preference (5);

B: 2>1: very strong preference (7);

C: 1>2: preference between weak and indifferent (2).

We rank the pairwise ratings according to the scale of preferences:

Let's build a preference matrix to evaluate the importance of criteria. In this case, the elements of the row are compared with the elements of the column according to the criteria. When comparing an element with itself, a rank equal to one is taken. When comparing the elements of a column with the elements of a row, the reciprocal of the value. The last value in the column is the sum of the elements (calculations are based on the concept of the matrix as a two-dimensional discrete random variable).

Let's calculate the arithmetic mean for each row of the matrix.

P A \u003d 0.128 (the makings of a leader)

Р В = 0.512 (educational level and experience)

P C \u003d 0.36 (ability for administrative work)

These values will characterize the final degree of importance of each criterion.

Similarly, we now determine the preference of candidates for each criterion.

P
first criterion:

Obviously, the two candidates form a complete group of events - we will definitely choose one of the two. Therefore, the sum of the scores is always equal to one. Therefore, it is possible to predetermine

index:

Torah criterion: and

Third criterion: and

Let's draw a decision tree:

Now it is obvious that in order to determine the best candidate, it is necessary to add the products of the importance of the criterion and its presence in the candidate.

Р(1)=0.128* + 0.512* +0.36* = 0.41

Р(2)=0.128* +0.512* +0.36* = 0.59

Therefore, the second candidate has an advantage of 0.18 points and has a real chance for the position of marketing director. Problem solved.

1 Organization management. / Edited by Z.P. Rumyantseva. Moscow, 1996

2 International management. Textbook for universities / Ed. S.E. Pivovarov, D.I. Barkan, L.S. Tarasevich, A.I. Maisel. - St. Petersburg: publishing house "Peter", 2000. - 624 p., ill.

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Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

KAZAN NATIONAL RESEARCH TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY them. A.N. TUPOLEVA-KAI

Branch "Vostok"

Department of Economics and Management

COURSE WORK

by discipline:Management

on the topic:"Methods of making managerial decisions"

Student: groups 21371

Ivanov E.V.

Checked by: Assoc. Svirina A.A.

Chistopol

Introduction

3.2 Economic methods

Conclusion

Introduction

"Methods of making managerial decisions" is one of the controversial and topical topics in management theory.

In modern literature, one can find several approaches to the study of the decision-making process, but one can speak about this most fully and accurately, adhering to the views of a team of authors led by M.Kh. Meskon, who, summarizing the works of a number of authors and his personal experience developed his own theory.

Management came along with the people. Where at least two people united in an effort to achieve some common goal, the task of coordinating their joint actions arose, the solution of which one of them had to take on. Under these conditions, he became a leader, manager, and the other - his subordinate, executor

At all stages of the formation of society, the problem of governance was quite acute, and many people tried to solve it, but their works were fragmented and did not constitute a generalized theory.

And only in the second half of the last century after the victory industrial revolution in the West, the situation has changed dramatically. Market relations dominated all spheres of society. Large firms grew like mushrooms after rain, requiring a large number of top and middle-level managers capable of making competent rational decisions, able to work with large masses of people who would be free in their actions. Therefore, managers were required to have high professionalism, competence, the ability to measure their activities with existing laws. As a result, a group of people specially engaged in managerial activities appears. These leaders no longer need to keep their subordinates in obedience with an authoritative hand. The main task is the painstaking organization and daily management of production in order to ensure the greatest profit for the owners of the company. These people became known as managers.

A person can be called a manager only when he makes organizational decisions or implements them through other people. Decision making is one of the components of any managerial function. The need for decision-making permeates everything that the manager does, formulating goals and achieving them. Therefore, understanding the nature of decision making is important for anyone who wants to excel in the art of management.

The purpose of this work is to reveal the essence of the methods of making managerial decisions, the process and procedure for their adoption.

The objectives of the work are the description of methods for making managerial decisions, different approaches to managerial decisions on the part of managers, analysis of factors influencing the process of making managerial decisions, presentation of the essence of analysis as the basis for making managerial decisions, revealing the relevance of the problem in practice using the example of a particular enterprise - JSC "Vyatka Trading House".

The subject of the work is management decisions at the enterprise, methods of their adoption.

The object of work is the Joint Stock Company "Vyatka Trading House".

making a managerial decision

1. Management decision-making methods: theoretical aspect

1.1 The essence of management decisions

It should be remembered that almost all everyday decisions we make without systematic thinking, other decisions, such as where to go to live after graduation, or what lifestyle would satisfy us, after deliberation lasting days, months, years. Sometimes due to unconscious psychological factors we focus disproportionately on individual solutions. For example, some people agonize for weeks about buying a pair of shoes and act on impulse to buy a $15,000 car.

However, in management, decision-making is a more systematic process than in privacy. The rate is often much higher. The private choice of the individual affects mainly the life of his own and the few people associated with him. The manager chooses the course of action not only for himself, but also for the organization and for other employees. People who are on upper floors large organization sometimes make decisions involving millions of dollars. More importantly, management decisions can affect the fate of many people, at least everyone who works with the decision-maker, and perhaps everyone in the organization. One manager can fine an employee for the slightest offense, fine those who are engaged in social activities at work. Another leader may decide that being too strict about these matters threatens to cause moral problems resulting in increased absenteeism, employee turnover and possibly worse customer service, productivity and product quality. Refusing administrative punishments, the manager decides that there will be more use from a direct but firm conversation with the employee. However, over time, repeated cases of being late for work and reduced activity due to violent social activities may force the manager to still decide to fire the employee. If an organization is large and influential, the decisions of its top leaders can change the local environment in a decisive way. Some management decisions literally change the course of history. Important government decisions, such as the application atomic bomb President Truman fall into this category.

Responsibility for making important organizational decisions is a heavy moral burden, which is especially pronounced at the highest levels of management. However, leaders of any rank deal with property belonging to other people and through it influence their lives. If a manager decides to fire a subordinate, the latter can suffer greatly. If a bad employee is not stopped, the organization can suffer, which will negatively affect its owners and all employees. Therefore, the leader, as a rule, cannot make ill-considered decisions. Before understanding how a leader can act more rationally and systematized, it is necessary to become more familiar with the universality of decision making, its organic connection with the management process and some characteristics of organizational decisions.

1.2 Methodology and decision-making methods

The effectiveness of management depends on the complex application of many factors, and not least on the procedure for making decisions and their practical implementation. But in order for the management decision to be effective and efficient, certain methodological foundations must be observed.

In order to make a managerial decision, each manager must be well versed not only in the conceptual apparatus, but also skillfully put into practice:

· methodology of management decision;

· methods of development of management decisions;

organization of the development of management decisions;

Evaluation of the quality of management decisions.

Let's try to briefly consider the tools and conceptual apparatus of the manager.

The management decision methodology is a logical organization of activities for the development of a management decision, including the formulation of a management goal, the choice of methods for developing solutions, criteria for evaluating options, drawing up logical schemes for performing operations.

Methods for the development of management decisions include methods and techniques for performing the operations necessary in the development of management decisions. These include ways of analyzing, processing information, choosing options for action, etc.

The organization of the development of a management decision involves streamlining the activities of individual departments and individual employees in the process of developing a solution. The organization is carried out by means of regulations, standards, organizational requirements, instructions, responsibility.

Technology for developing a management decision is a variant of the sequence of operations for developing a solution, selected according to the criteria for the rationality of their implementation, the use of special equipment, the qualifications of personnel, and the specific conditions for performing work.

The quality of a management decision is a set of properties that a management decision possesses that, to one degree or another, meet the needs of a successful problem resolution. For example, timeliness, targeting, specificity.

The object of making a managerial decision is the multifaceted activity of an enterprise, regardless of its form of ownership. In particular, the following activities are subject to decision-making:

· technical development;

Organization of main and auxiliary production;

· marketing activities;

economic and financial development;

organization wages and awards;

social development;

management;

accounting activities;

· staffing;

Other activities.

A decision is the result of a choice from a variety of options, alternatives, and is a guide to action based on a developed project or work plan.

The correctness and effectiveness of the decision made is largely determined by the quality of economic, organizational, social and other types of information. Conventionally, all types of information that are used in making a decision can be divided into:

for incoming and outgoing;

processed and unprocessed;

· textual and graphic;

· constant and variable;

normative, analytical, statistical;

· primary and secondary;

directive, distributive, reporting.

The value of the information obtained depends on the accuracy of the task, since a correctly set task predetermines the need for specific information for making a decision.

Decision-making is inherent in any type of activity, and the effectiveness of the work of one person, a group of people or the entire people of a certain state may depend on it. From an economic and managerial point of view, decision-making should be considered as a factor in increasing production efficiency. The efficiency of production, of course, in each case depends on the quality of the decision made by the manager.

All decisions made in any field of activity can be conditionally classified and divided into decisions: according to the strategy of the enterprise; arrived; sales; issues that affect the formation of profits.

Fulfilling their functional duties, each manager chooses the most optimal solutions that contribute to the implementation of the task.

Decision-making, as a rule, is associated with the choice of a course of action, and if the decision is made easily, without a special study of alternatives, then good decision hard to accept. A good decision imposes a great social burden on the manager and depends on the psychological preparedness of the manager, his experience, and personal qualities.

Decision making is preceded by several steps:

the emergence of problems that need to be addressed;

selection of criteria by which the decision will be made;

development and formulation of alternatives;

selection of the optimal alternative from their sets;

Approval (adoption) of a decision;

organization of work on the implementation of the solution - feedback

Criteria for assessing the capabilities of the organizational structure of management:

1. Determination of the degree of ability of the applied organizational structure of management to ensure the receipt of the rate of return.

2. The degree of the ability of the existing management structure to create conditions for increasing the rate of return through the activities of scientific and technological progress.

3. The degree of ability to quickly respond to changes in demand and act accordingly.

4. The degree of the ability of the organizational structure of management to ensure the growth of labor productivity due to the detailed specialization of social labor and production.

5. Degree of system efficiency production control given the organizational structure of management.

The object for the emergence of problems can be the final indicators of the enterprise (organization). In particular, as a result of the activity of the enterprise, the indicators of the final results of work began to deteriorate sharply (an increase in the cost of production, a decrease in the growth of labor productivity and its quality, profit and profitability); as well as conflict situations, high staff turnover.

In relation to management, all solutions can be classified as:

· organizational;

programmed;

unprogrammed;

rational;

· irrational;

probabilistic;

· intuitive;

Based on compromise

alternative.

From the entire classification, we will try to consider only some solutions. It is known that decision-making is always associated with a certain moral responsibility, depending on the level at which the decision is made. The higher the level of management, the higher the moral responsibility for the decision.

A managerial decision establishes a transition from what is available to what must be done in a certain period. In the process of preparing a solution, problems are identified, goals are clarified, variant elaboration of solutions is carried out, the choice of the best variant is completed and its approval is completed.

Management decisions can be: individual, collegiate, collective, strategic (perspective), tactical (immediate), operational.

Organizational decisions are made at all levels of management and are one of the functions of the manager, they are aimed at achieving the goal or task. They can be programmed or unprogrammed.

A programmed decision is the result of the implementation of a certain sequence of steps or actions and is made on the basis of a limited number of alternatives.

In order to find the right ways to solve the problem, the manager should not strive to immediately resolve it, which is practically impossible, but should take appropriate measures to study the causes of the problem based on the available internal and external information.

2. The process of making managerial decisions

2.1 Approaches to decision making

There are two points to keep in mind when considering decision-making processes. The first is that decisions are usually relatively easy to make. Everything that a person does in this case comes down to choosing a course of action. It's hard to make a good decision. The second point is that decision making is a psychological process. We all know from experience that human behavior is not always logical. Sometimes we are driven by logic, sometimes by feelings. Therefore, it is not surprising that the methods used by the leader to make decisions vary from spontaneous to highly logical. A rational approach to decision making is described below, but here it is important to remember that the leader is influenced by such psychological factors as social attitudes, accumulated experience and personal values. Next, I will consider the influence of some behavioral factors on the process of making managerial decisions.

Although any particular decision rarely belongs to any one group, it can be argued that the decision-making process is intuitive, judgmental, or rational.

A purely intuitive decision is a choice made only on the basis of a feeling that it is correct. The decision maker does not consciously weigh the pros and cons of each alternative and does not even need to understand the situation. It's just that a person makes a choice. Management specialist Peter Schoederbeck points out that "While learning about the amount of information about a problem can be of great help to decision-making by middle managers, representatives of the highest levels of government still have to rely on intuitive judgments. Moreover, computers allow management to devote more attention to data, but do not take away the time-honored managerial intuitive know-how." The significant dependence of managers on intuition was also confirmed in his studies by Professor Mintzberg.

Decisions based on judgments. Such decisions sometimes seem intuitive, because their logic is not obvious. A judgmental decision is a choice based on knowledge or experience. A person uses knowledge of what has happened in similar situations before to predict the outcome of alternative choices in the current situation. Relying on common sense, he chooses an alternative that has been successful in the past.

Rational problem solving. Problem solving, like management, is a process, because it is a never-ending sequence of interrelated steps. The leader cares not so much about the decision as such, but about everything related to and resulting from it. Solving a problem requires not a single solution, but a set of choices. So while the problem-solving process can be thought of as a five-step process (plus implementation and feedback), the actual number of steps is determined by the problem itself.

1. Diagnosis of the problem. The first step towards solving a problem is a definition or diagnosis, complete and correct. There are two ways of looking at the problem. According to one, a situation is considered a problem when the set goals are not achieved. In other words, you know about the problem because what should have happened doesn't happen. By doing this, deviations from the norm can be smoothed out. For example, the foreman may determine that the performance of his site is below normal. It will be reactive control, its necessity is obvious. Too often, however, leaders see as problems only situations in which something should have happened but didn't. A potential opportunity can also be seen as a problem. For example, active search ways to improve the efficiency of any unit, even if things are going well, will be proactive management. In this case, you realize the problem when you realize - something - that can be done either to improve the course of things, or to capitalize on the opportunity that presents itself. Management specialist Peter Drucker emphasizes this by pointing out that solving the problem only restores the norm, the results "should be a consequence of the use of opportunities."

2. Formulation of constraints and decision criteria. When a manager diagnoses a problem in order to make a decision, he must be aware of what exactly can be done with it. Many possible solutions problems of the organization will not be realistic, because either the manager or the organization does not have enough resources to implement the decisions made. In addition, the cause of the problem may be forces outside the organization, such as laws that the leader has no power to change. Restrictions on corrective action limit the ability to make decisions. Before proceeding to the next stage of the process, the manager must impartially determine the essence of the restrictions and only then identify alternatives. It is even worse if an unrealistic course of action is chosen. Naturally, this will exacerbate rather than solve the existing problem.

In addition to identifying constraints, the manager needs to define the standards by which alternative choices are to be judged. These standards are called decision criteria. They act as recommendations for evaluating decisions.

3. Definition of alternatives. The next stage is the formulation of a set of alternative solutions to the problem. Ideally, it is desirable to identify all possible actions that could eliminate the causes of the problem and, thereby, enable the organization to achieve its goals. However, in practice, the manager rarely has sufficient knowledge or time to formulate and evaluate each alternative. Moreover, considering a large number of alternatives, even if they are all realistic, often leads to confusion. Therefore, the manager, as a rule, limits the number of options for serious consideration to only a few alternatives that seem to be the most desirable.

4. Evaluation of alternatives. The next step is to evaluate possible alternatives. When they are identified, a certain preliminary assessment is necessary. Research, however, has shown that both the quantity and quality of alternative ideas increase when the initial generation of ideas (identification of alternatives) is separated from the evaluation of the final idea.

This means that only after compiling a list of all ideas, one should proceed to the evaluation of each alternative. When evaluating decisions, the manager determines the advantages and disadvantages of each of them, and the possible overall consequences. It is clear that any alternative is associated with some negative aspects. Therefore, almost all important management decisions involve a compromise.

To compare decisions, it is necessary to have a standard against which to measure the likely outcomes of each possible alternative. Such standards are called decision criteria. If a model fails to meet one or more of the criteria you set, it can no longer be considered as a realistic alternative.

However, for example, when buying a car, some of the selection criteria may have a quantitative expression (its cost). And ease of use and external attractiveness require the collection of information of a qualitative nature. In order to evaluate and compare maintenance data, you should review the corresponding ratings in consumer society publications. To do the same with regard to external attractiveness, you can create your own rating scale, highlighting the classes of very or moderately attractive, with average and below average attractiveness and unattractive models.

Difficulties can arise at this stage, since it is impossible to compare things if they are not of the same type - it is pointless to directly compare apples with oranges. All decisions should be expressed in certain forms. It is desirable that this be the form in which the goal is expressed. In business, profit is a constant need and a top priority, so decisions can be expressed in monetary terms and as an estimate of their impact on profit. In a non-profit organization main goal, as a rule, is to provide the best service at the lowest cost. Therefore, monetary terms can be used to compare the consequences of decisions in similar organizations.

5. Choice of an alternative. If the problem has been correctly identified and alternative solutions have been carefully weighed and evaluated, making a choice, i.e. making a decision, is relatively easy. The manager simply chooses the alternative with the most favorable general consequences. However, if the problem is complex and many trade-offs have to be taken into account, or if information and analysis are subjective, it may happen that no alternative is the best choice. In this case the main role belongs to good judgment and experience.

Although it is ideal for a manager to achieve an optimal solution, the manager, as a rule, does not dream of such in practice. The leader leans towards a solution that he calls "satisfying" rather than "maximizing." Usually the optimal solution is not found due to lack of time and the inability to take into account all available information and alternatives. Because of these limitations, the leader tends to choose a course of action that is obviously acceptable, but not necessarily the best possible.

Implementation. As Harrison emphasizes, "The real value of decisions becomes apparent only after they are implemented." The process of solving a problem does not end with the choice of an alternative. Simply choosing a course of action is of little value to an organization. To solve a problem or to take advantage of an available opportunity, a solution must be implemented. The level of effectiveness in the implementation of a decision will increase if it is recognized by those affected by it. Recognition of a solution is rare, but it is automatic, even if it is obviously good.

Sometimes the leader can entrust the decision to those who will have to execute it. More often, he is forced to convince other people in the organization of the correctness of his point of view, proving that his choice is good both for the organization and for everyone individually. Some leaders see persuasion as a waste of time, but the "I'm right or wrong, I'm the boss" approach generally doesn't work in today's educated world.

The chances of effective implementation of a solution are greatly increased when the people involved have contributed to the solution and sincerely believe in what they are doing. Therefore, a good way to gain acceptance for a decision is to involve other people in the process of making it. It is up to the leader to choose who should decide. However, there are situations when a leader is forced to make a decision without consulting others. The participation of employees in decision-making, like any other method of management, will not be effective in every situation.

Moreover, strong support alone does not guarantee proper implementation of the decision. The full implementation of decisions requires the activation of the entire management process, in particular its organizing and motivational function.

Feedback. Another phase that enters the process of making a managerial decision and begins after the decision has taken effect is the establishment feedback. According to Harrison: "A tracking and control system is needed to ensure that the actual results are consistent with those that the manager hoped to receive. Feedback - i.e., the receipt of data about what happened before and after the implementation of the solution - allows the manager to adjust it until the organization Significant damage has been caused Management's evaluation of the decision is performed primarily through the control function.

2.2 Analysis and management decision making

In a market economy, the degree of uncertainty in the economic behavior of market entities is quite high. In this regard, the methods of prospective analysis acquire great practical importance when it is necessary to make managerial decisions, evaluating possible situations and making a choice from several alternative options.

Theoretically, there are four types of situations in which it is necessary to analyze and make management decisions, including at the enterprise level: under conditions of certainty, risk, uncertainty, conflict. Let's consider each of these cases.

1. Analysis and adoption of managerial decisions in conditions of certainty.

This is the simplest case: the number of possible situations (options) and their outcomes are known. You must choose one of options. The degree of complexity of the selection procedure in this case is determined only by the number of alternative options. Let's consider two possible situations:

a) There are two possible options: n=2.

In this case, the analyst must choose (or recommend to choose) one of two possible options. The sequence of actions here is as follows:

The criteria by which the choice will be made are determined;

· the method of "direct calculation" calculates the values of the criterion for the compared options;

There are various methods for solving this problem. As a rule, they are divided into two groups:

1. Methods based on discounted estimates;

2. Methods based on accounting estimates.

The first group of methods is based on the following idea. Cash income coming to the enterprise at different points in time should not be summed up directly; only the elements of the reduced flow can be summed. If we designate F1,F2 ,....,Fn - forecasted cash flow by years, then i-th element the reduced cash flow Рi is calculated by the formula:

Pi = Fi / (1+ r) i

where r is the discount factor.

The purpose of the discount factor is the temporal ordering of future cash receipts (income) and bringing them to the current point in time. The economic meaning of this representation is as follows: the significance of the predicted value of cash receipts in i years (Fi) from the position of the current moment will be less than or equal to Pi . This also means that for the investor the amount of Pi in this moment time and the sum Fi after i years are the same in their value. Using this formula, it is possible to bring into a comparable form an estimate of future income expected to be received over a number of years. In this case, the discount factor is numerically equal to interest rate set by the investor, i.e. the relative amount of return that an investor wants or can receive on the capital he invests.

So, the sequence of actions of the analyst is as follows (calculations are performed for each alternative):

· the amount of the required investment is calculated (expert assessment), IC;

· estimated profit (cash receipts) by years Fi;

· the value of the discount factor, r, is set;

· the elements of the reduced flow, Pi are determined;

The net present effect (NPV) is calculated using the formula:

· NPV values are compared;

preference is given to the option that has the highest NPV ( negative meaning NPV indicates the economic inexpediency of this option).

The second group of methods continues to use predictive values of F in calculations. One of the simplest methods of this group is the calculation of the payback period of an investment. The sequence of actions of the analyst in this case is as follows:

· the value of required investments, IC , is calculated;

· Estimated profit (cash receipts) by years, Fi ;

The variant is chosen, the cumulative profit on which in a smaller number of years will pay off the investments made.

b) The number of alternatives is more than two n > 2

The procedural side of the analysis becomes much more complicated due to the multiplicity of options; the “direct counting” technique is practically not applicable in this case. The most convenient computing apparatus is optimal programming methods (in this case, this term means “planning”. There are many of these methods (linear, nonlinear, dynamic, etc.), but in practice in economic research only linear programming has gained relative popularity. In particular, consider the transport problem as an example of choosing the best option from a set of alternative ones. The essence of the problem is as follows.

There are n points of production of some products (a1,a2,...,an) and k points of its consumption (b1,b2,....,bk), where ai is the volume of output of the i -th point of production, bj is the volume consumption of the j -th point of consumption. We consider the simplest, so-called “closed problem”, when the total volumes of production and consumption are equal. Let cij be the cost of transporting a unit of production. It is required to find the most rational scheme for attaching suppliers to consumers, minimizing the total costs of transporting products. Obviously, the number of alternative options here can be very large, which excludes the use of the “direct count” method. So we need to solve the following problem:

E E Cg Xg -> min

E Xg = bj E Xg = bj Xg >= 0

known various ways the solution of this problem is the distribution method of potentials, etc. As a rule, a computer is used for calculations.

When conducting analysis under conditions of certainty, computer simulation methods that involve multiple computer calculations can be successfully applied. In this case, a simulation model of an object or process is built ( computer program) containing b-th number factors and variables, the values of which vary in different combinations. Thus, machine simulation is an experiment, but not in real, but in artificial conditions. Based on the results of this experiment, one or more options are selected that are basic for making a final decision based on additional formal and informal criteria.

Analysis and adoption of managerial decisions under risk. This situation occurs most frequently in practice. Here they use a probabilistic approach, which involves predicting possible outcomes and assigning probabilities to them. In doing so, they use:

a) known, typical situations (such as - the probability of the coat of arms appearing when tossing a coin is 0.5);

b) previous probability distributions (for example, the probability of a defective part is known from sample surveys or statistics from previous periods);

c) subjective assessments made by the analyst alone or with the involvement of a group of experts.

The sequence of actions of the analyst in this case is as follows:

· possible outcomes Ak , k = 1 ,2 ,....., n are predicted;

each outcome is assigned a corresponding probability pk , moreover, E rk = 1

a criterion is selected (for example, maximizing mathematical expectation arrived) ;

The option that satisfies the selected criterion is selected.

Example: there are two investment objects with the same forecasted amount of required capital investments. The value of the planned income in each case is not certain and is given in the form of a probability distribution:

Then the mathematical expectation of income for the projects under consideration will be respectively equal to:

Y (Yes) = 0 . 10 * 3000 + ......+ 0 . 10 * 5000 = 4000

Y (db) \u003d 0. 10 * 2000 +.......+ 0 . 10 * 8000 = 4250

Thus, project B is more preferable. However, it should be noted that this project is also relatively more risky, since it has a greater variation compared to project A (range of variation of project A - 2000, project B - 6000) .

In more difficult situations the so-called decision tree construction method is used in the analysis. Let's look at the logic of this method using an example.

Example: the manager needs to make a decision on the advisability of purchasing a machine M1 or machine M2. The M2 machine is more economical, which provides a higher income per unit of production, however, it is more expensive and requires relatively large overhead costs:

The decision-making process can be carried out in several stages:

Stage 1 . Goal definition.

As a criterion, the maximization of the mathematical expectation of profit is chosen.

Stage 2. Set definition possible actions for consideration and analysis (controlled by the decision maker)

The manager can choose one of two options:

a1 = (purchase of machine M1)

a2 = (purchase of machine M2)

Stage 3 . Evaluation of possible outcomes and their probabilities (are random).

The manager evaluates possible options for annual demand for products and their corresponding probabilities as follows:

x1 = 1200 units with a probability of 0. four

x2 = 2000 units with a probability of 0. 6

Stage 4 . Estimation of the mathematical expectation of possible income:

E (Yes) = 9000 * 0. 4 + 25000 * 0 . 6 = 18600

E (db) \u003d 7800 * 0. 4 + 27000 * 0 . 6 = 19320

Thus, the option with the purchase of the M2 machine is more economically feasible.

Analysis and adoption of managerial decisions under conditions of uncertainty. This situation has been developed in theory, but formalized analysis algorithms are rarely used in practice. The main difficulty here is that it is impossible to estimate the probabilities of outcomes. The main criterion - profit maximization - does not work here, so other criteria are used:

maximin (maximizing the minimum profit)

minimax (minimization of maximum losses)

Maximaks (maximization of maximum profit), etc.

Analysis and management decision-making in a conflict. The most complex and little developed analysis from a practical point of view. Similar situations are considered in game theory. Of course, in practice, this and the previous situations are quite common. In such cases, they are trying to reduce them to one of the first two situations, or use non-formalized methods to make a decision.

Estimates obtained as a result of applying formalized methods are only the basis for making a final decision; in this case, additional criteria, including those of an informal nature, may be taken into account.

3. Making managerial decisions in JSC "Vyatka Trading House"

3.1 Organizational and administrative methods

Consider first the organizational and administrative methods (ORM).

ORM are divided into 2 types: organizational-stabilizing and methods of administrative influence.

The first, in turn, are further divided into 3 types:

1. Methods of organizational regulation. These include various documents regulating the work of a company, in our case, Vyatka Trading House JSC, i.e., they establish the basic rules for the functioning of the system: the ratio between the managed and the managing subsystems, determine the procedure for the functioning of the system itself and its elements, their subordination, fixes certain functions. For example, the charter of JSC. Regulations on departments assign certain functions to them, and also ensure the subordination of some services to others. I would include in this group job descriptions, which also fix the subordination, communications and responsibilities of managers and ordinary performers.

2. Methods of organizational regulation. These methods form the basis production processes and management processes. Methods of organizational rationing are also divided into smaller groups.

2.1. Nomenclature and classification standards. These in JSC "Vyatka Trading House" include the nomenclature and classification reference book used in accounting. Its main purpose is to assign each type of raw material, components of its own code, which facilitates their accounting. Another example is the regulation on the mandatory assortment of food products in the Cheapness chain of stores. Its task is to establish mandatory list food products that must be constantly on sale.

2.2. Organizational and technical standards. As organizational and technical standards, one can single out the GOSTs used at the enterprise, certificates of conformity of product quality to the required level of quality.

2.3. Operational calendar standards. Of the operational-calendar standards, the provision on the document flow scheme, the procedure for issuing, receiving and paying for goods, etc. are applied.

2.4. Organizational and structural standards: regulations on the organizational structure of the company, OSUP, staffing.

2.5. Administrative and organizational. Administrative and organizational ones include the rules of internal labor regulations, the rules for granting leave, retirement, etc.

3. Methods of methodical instruction. I can refer to the methods of methodical instruction the provision on accounting policy and maintenance accounting at JSC, which determines the procedure and list of used accounting accounts, the procedure for determining the volume of sales, etc. This also includes industry guidelines on planning, accounting and calculating the cost of products in trade, various instructions on the procedure for paying taxes, on cashless payments, on the procedure for maintaining cash transactions in the Russian Federation, etc.

Methods of administrative influence are applied in addition to the methods of organizational and stabilizing influence. These are operational methods with a short time lag. They operate in the dynamics of the development of the system. The main task of these methods is to bring the control object into the optimal mode of operation in case of deviations from the required state.

I would include various orders as methods of administrative influence, for example, on hiring and dismissal in connection with a reduction in staff in a joint-stock company (they cause certain legal and legal consequences); an order to move the sales department to a new location or an order to submit a progress report by 1/1/98 are examples of binding documents; prohibitive purposes in JSCs are, for example, orders on a list of documents constituting a trade secret, on a ban on smoking in places not designated for this.

3.2 Economic methods

Consider now the economic methods of management. This is the second major type of management methods in our classification. Under the economic methods of management understand the totality of ways to influence the economic (material) interests of the object of management (employee). These methods in JSC "Vyatka Trading House" have the following features:

1. Material interest acts as a motivational factor.

2. Indirect nature of the impact (they act through a system of restrictions and incentives).

3. They bring an element of self-regulation into the system.

5. Makes it possible to predict the potential response of the control object to the control action of the control subject.

6. It is possible to quantitatively measure the results of the impact of this group of methods.

7. Strategic character.

The mechanisms for the implementation of economic methods may be different. One of effective forms carrying out this group of life methods can be self-supporting relationship. But self-supporting in JSC "Vyatka Trading House" is not applied. Of the remaining methods, one can single out a system of bonuses for the results of labor, as well as the payment of a certain percentage of the amount of goods sold to stimulate merchandisers.

3.3 Socio-psychological methods

Socio-psychological methods constitute the third and last major group of methods in our classification. They are understood as a group of methods aimed at a combination of social interests and psychological characteristics personality (employee). Thus, these methods affect the social processes taking place in labor collectives and interpersonal relationships and connections.

In JSC "Vyatka Trading House" these methods are not so brightly presented. Of the social methods of management, most of them are due to state guarantees (duration of work, setting the retirement age). At AO social methods presented in the following forms:

Socio-economic (labor rationing, the requirement to comply with safety regulations, the establishment of productivity standards, the distribution of people depending on the intensity of work, the guarantee of a minimum wage, increasing productivity through the introduction of new technology);

Social (catering for workers in the restaurant "Khlynov" (of course, at appropriate prices), regulation of women's work);

Socio-political (equality of all, regardless of party membership, political preferences);

Socio-personal (identifying informal leaders in teams, identifying capable workers who can take leadership positions in the future and organizing the development of their managerial skills);

Socio-demographic (formation of the structure of teams, provision of parental leave);

Socio-cultural (organization of people's recreation in rest homes, dispensaries, sports complexes).

The psychological methods used in JSC "Vyatka Trading House" include the speeches of the General Director to the management personnel in order to push them to achieve certain results, to encourage the manager for a job well done (methods of psychological motivation).

The factory also applies psychological methods labor humanization methods (air conditioners, safe computer monitors, workplace convenience). When hiring for some positions, psychological fitness is also checked (professional selection methods).

Conclusion

Summarizing our work, we can draw the following conclusions:

Management decision making is a very important factor in the activity of any modern firm. Without proper management decisions, effective leadership economic prosperity of the company is hardly possible.

There are a large number various methods making managerial decisions. In relation to management, all solutions can be classified as:

· organizational;

programmed;

unprogrammed;

rational;

· irrational;

probabilistic;

Decisions under conditions of uncertainty;

· intuitive;

Based on compromise

alternative.

All these methods are reflected in one way or another in the decision-making process in joint stock company"Vyatka trading house". The JSC "Vyatka Trading House" has its own classification of decision-making methods. The most developed decision-making methods in this firm are such as organizational and administrative methods, economic methods and socio-psychological methods. The use of these methods allowed the company to work efficiently and make a profit.

List of used literature

1. Andrushkiv B.M., Kuzmin O.E. Fundamentals of management. Lvov: "Svіt", 1995.

2. Vesnin V.R. Fundamentals of Management: Textbook. - M.: Publishing house "Triada.Ltd", 1996.

3. Vikhansky O.S., Naumov A.I. Management: person, strategy, organization, process: 2nd ed.: Textbook. - M.: Firm "Gardarika", 1996.

4. Gerchikova I.N. Management. Moscow, "Banks and Barges", UNITI Publishing Association, 1995.

5. Golubkov E.P. What decision to make? Moscow "Economy", 1990.

6. Grove S. Andrew Highly effective management. Moscow, 1996.

7. Kokhno P.A. etc. Management. M.: Finance and statistics, 1993.

8. Lebedev O.T. Fundamentals of management. St. Petersburg Publishing House "MiM", 1997.

9. Lyubimova N.G. Management is the way to success. Moscow, 1992.

10. Makarov S.F. Manager at work. Moscow, 1989.

11. Management of the organization. / Edited by Z.P. Rumyantseva. Moscow, 1996.

12. Reylyan Ya.R. Analytical framework making managerial decisions. M.: 1991.

13. Romashchenko V.N. Decision making: situations and advice. Kyiv: Politizdat of Ukraine, 1990.

14. Satskov N.Ya. Methods and techniques of activity of managers and businessmen. St. Petersburg, 1993.

15. Utkin E.A. Company management. - M.: Akalis, 1996.

16. Fatkhutdinov R.A. Development of a management solution. Moscow: "Intel-sintez", 1997.

17. Fatkhutdinov R.A. Strategic management: Tutorial. - M.: "Intel-Synthesis", 1997.

18. Tsygichko V.N. The leader is about decision making. M.: INFRA-M, 1996.

19. Shegda A.V. Fundamentals of management. Moscow, 1998.

20. Eddous M., Stensfield R. Decision-making methods / Peru from English, ed. I.I. Eliseeva. - M.: Banks and exchanges, 1994.

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Principles of making managerial decisions

There are 10 principles that should guide any decision making:

Before going into details, try to imagine the problem as a whole.
Don't make a decision until you've considered all your options.
Doubt.
Try to look at the problem from different points of view.
Look for or an analogy that will help you better understand the essence of the problem being solved.
Ask as many questions as possible.
Don't be satisfied with the first solution that comes to mind.
Listen to the opinions of others before making a final decision.
Don't neglect your feelings.
Remember that each person looks at emerging problems from his own point of view.

Requirements for management decisions

Each management decision made in the management system in accordance with its purpose must meet the following requirements:

have a clear goal (otherwise it is impossible to make sound rational decisions);
be justified, i.e. contain a quantitative, calculated basis that explains the motive for choosing this particular solution from a number of other possible ones;
have an addressee and deadlines, i.e. have a focus on specific executors and specific dates for the execution of decisions;
be consistent, i.e. comprehensively coordinated with both internal and external circumstances, as well as previous and upcoming decisions;
be eligible, i.e. rely on the requirements of legal acts, normative documents, instructions and orders of managers, as well as take into account the duties and rights of management and subordinates;
be effective, i.e. the best possible in relation to the expected outcome to the costs;
be specific, i.e. answer questions about how, when and where to act;
be timely, i.e. be taken when the implementation of this decision can still lead to the goal;
have sufficient completeness, brevity, clarity, be understandable to performers without any additional clarifications and explanations.

Approaches to Management Decision Making

The manager in his work must distinguish between types of decisions, and the organization as a whole must have a certain approach to decision-making. In this regard, allocate

Centralized approach (recommends making as many decisions as possible at the top level of management) and decentralized approach (encourages managers to transfer decision-making responsibility to the lowest management level)

Team approach (manager and one or more employees working together on the same issue) and individual approach(decision making by manager only)

The “participation system” approach (the manager interviews people who will be involved in decision-making, but reserves the right to have the final say) and the “non-participation system” approach (managers do not provide for outside participation in the decision-making system and prefer to collect information, evaluate alternatives and make decisions without involving outsiders)

Democratic approach (decisions are made in favor of the majority) and deliberative approach (many people are involved in decision-making and a compromise is sought between all opinions)

Stages of making a managerial decision

Clarification of the problem (collection of information, clarification of relevance, determination of the conditions under which this problem will be solved).
Drawing up a solution plan (development of alternative solutions, comparison of solution options with available resources, evaluation of alternative solutions for social consequences, evaluation of alternative solutions for cost-effectiveness, drawing up solution programs, developing and drawing up a detailed solution plan).
Implementation of the decision (bringing decisions to specific executors, development of incentives and punishments, control over the implementation of decisions).

Development and decision-making process

The process of developing a solution is an important factor in ensuring its quality, which largely determines the cost of time and money. The person leading the development of the solution must: define the problem and tasks in its solution, the goals of the solution and ways to achieve it, the distribution of work to prepare the solution, determine the people responsible for their implementation.

The solution development process under traditional management includes the following steps:

Detection and formulation of the problem. At the source of any solution is a problem situation that needs to be resolved.
Collection and information about the problem to be solved.
Development of a criterion for evaluating the effectiveness of a solution. The optimal solution is an option that allows you to effectively solve the problem in accordance with the developed criterion. There can be many inefficient and rational solutions, but there is only one optimal solution.
Development of alternative solutions, analysis of possible solutions. The analysis should be carried out on a set of effect parameters corresponding to each option, and the rules for analyzing possible solutions are predetermined by a given criterion for evaluating effectiveness. Any decision can be evaluated using at least three effect parameters: target effect (profit, labor productivity, etc.); the cost of obtaining this effect (time, other resources); security.
- how realistic is the alternative in terms of the set goals and resources;
- what is the risk of additional problems;
- what effect the alternative will bring in other areas of the organization, i.e. get the opinion of subordinates.

When choosing an alternative, the manager must understand:

Implementation of the optimal solution. The implementation of the solution may involve the following two steps:
- bringing the decision to the performers;
- organization of the implementation of the decision.
- If the decision was not clearly articulated by the manager;
- If the decision was clearly and clearly formulated, but the performer did not understand it well;
- The decision is clearly formulated, and the performer understood it well, but he did not have the necessary conditions and means for its implementation;
- The decision was correctly formulated, the performer learned it and had all the necessary means to implement it, but he did not have an internal agreement with the solution proposed by the manager. The contractor in this case may have his own, more effective, but in his opinion, solution to this problem.

Bringing decisions to the executors usually begins with the division of the solution into group and individual tasks and the selection of executors. As a result, each employee receives a specific task of his own, which is directly dependent on his official duties and a number of other objective and subjective factors. It is believed that the ability to transfer tasks to performers is the main source of the effectiveness of the decision. In this regard, there are four main reasons for non-compliance with decisions:

Control over the process of implementation of the decision taken. It takes the form of feedback, through which you can get information about the execution of the decision, the achievement of the organization's goals.
The main purpose of control is to timely detect possible deviations from the given program for the implementation of the solution, as well as to take timely measures to eliminate them. In the process of control, the initial goals of the organization can be modified, refined and changed, taking into account the additional information received on the implementation of the decisions made. Those. the main task of control is to timely identify and predict the expected deviations from the given program for the implementation of managerial decisions.

With the help of control, not only deviations from the tasks formulated in the decisions are revealed, but also the causes of these deviations are determined.

MANAGEMENT DECISION-MAKING METHODS

The number of possible concrete methods and models is almost as great as the number of managerial problems for which they were developed.

GAME THEORY is a method of modeling the evaluation of the impact of a decision under conditions of uncertainty, for example, on competitors.

QUEUING THEORY MODELS or the optimal service model is used to determine the optimal number of service channels in relation to the demand for them.

INVENTORY MANAGEMENT MODELS are used to determine the time of placing orders for resources and their quantities, as well as the mass finished products in warehouses.

LINEAR PROGRAMMING MODEL - determining the optimal way to allocate scarce resources in the presence of competing needs.

A DECISION TREE is a model presented in graphical form. All the steps that need to be considered when evaluating the various alternatives are plotted on the graph.

SIMULATION MODELING - the process of creating a model and its experimental application to determine changes in a real situation.

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS - methods for assessing costs and economic benefits, as well as the relative profitability of an enterprise. For example, break-even analysis.

The payoff matrix is one of the methods of statistical decision theory, a method that can help the manager in choosing one of several options.

FORECASTING is a technique that uses both past experience and current assumptions about the future to determine it.

Delphi method - experts who do not know each other are given questions related to solving the problem, the opinion of a minority of experts is brought to the opinion of the majority. The majority must either agree with this decision or refute it. If the majority disagrees, then their arguments are passed to the minority and analyzed there. This process is repeated until all experts come to the same opinion, or go to the fact that groups stand out that do not change their minds. This method is used to achieve efficiency.

All methods of making managerial decisions can be combined into three groups (Fig. 8.2).

Figure 8.2. Classification of management decision-making methods

1. Informal (heuristic) decision-making methods. Management practice shows that when making and implementing decisions, a certain part of managers use informal methods, which are based on the analytical abilities of those who make managerial decisions. This is a set of logical techniques and methods for choosing the best decisions by the manager through a theoretical comparison of alternatives, taking into account the accumulated experience. For the most part, informal methods are based on the manager's intuition. Their advantage is that they are accepted promptly, the disadvantage is that informal methods do not guarantee against choosing erroneous (inefficient) decisions, since intuition can sometimes fail a manager.

2. Collective methods of discussion and decision-making. The main point in the process of collective work on the implementation of management decisions is the determination of the circle of persons participating in this procedure. Most often, this is a temporary team, which includes, as a rule, both leaders and performers. The main criteria for the formation of such a group are competence, the ability to solve creative problems, constructive thinking and communication skills. Collective forms of group work can be different: a meeting, a meeting, work in a commission, etc. The most common method of collective preparation of managerial decisions is "brainstorming" or "brainstorming" (joint generation of new ideas and subsequent decision-making).

If a complex problem is to be solved, then a group of people gathers to offer their own solutions to a particular problem. The main condition for "brainstorming" is the creation of an environment that is as favorable as possible for the free generation of ideas. To achieve this, it is forbidden to refute or criticize the idea, no matter how fantastic it may be at first glance. All ideas are recorded and then analyzed by specialists (Fig. 8.3).

Figure 8.3. Basic Structure of the Brainstorming Method

Delphi Method got its name from the Greek city of Delphi, famous for the sages who lived there - predictors of the future. The Delphi method is a multi-round questionnaire procedure. After each round, the survey data is finalized and the results are reported to the experts indicating the location of the assessments. The first round of the survey is conducted without argumentation, in the second - a different answer is subject to argumentation, or the expert can change the assessment. After the assessments stabilize, the survey is terminated and the decision proposed by the experts or the corrected decision is adopted.

Japanese, so-called ring decision-making system - "kingisho" , the essence of which is that a draft innovation is being prepared for consideration. It is submitted for discussion to persons according to the list compiled by the head. Everyone should consider the proposed solution and give their comments in writing. This is followed by a meeting. As a rule, those specialists are invited whose opinion is not entirely clear to the manager. Experts choose their solution according to individual preferences. And if they do not match, then a preference vector arises, which is determined using one of the following principles:

b) the principle of a dictator - the opinion of one person of the group is taken as the basis. This principle is typical for military organizations, as well as for decision-making in emergency situations;

c) the Cournot principle - is used when there are no coalitions, i.e. the number of solutions equal to the number of experts is proposed. In this case, it is necessary to find a solution that would meet the requirement of individual rationality without infringing on the interests of each individual;

d) the Pareto principle - used when making decisions when all experts form a single whole, one coalition. In this case, the optimal solution will be one that is unprofitable to change all members of the group at once, since it unites them in achieving a common goal;

e) the Edgeworth principle - is used if the group consists of several coalitions, each of which is unprofitable to cancel its decision. Knowing the preferences of coalitions, it is possible to make the optimal decision without harming each other.

3. Quantitative methods of decision making . They are based on a scientific and practical approach, which involves the choice of optimal solutions by processing (with the help of computers and EMMs) large amounts of information.

Depending on the type of mathematical functions underlying the models, there are:

a) linear modeling - linear dependencies are used;

b) dynamic programming - allows you to enter additional variables in the process of solving problems;

c) probabilistic and statistical models - are implemented in the methods of queuing theory;

d) game theory - modeling such situations, the decision-making in which should take into account the non-coincidence of the interests of various units;

e) simulation models - allow you to experimentally verify the implementation of solutions, change the initial prerequisites, clarify the requirements for them.