The new government will not a large number new faces. Most likely, Dmitry Medvedev will again head the Cabinet.

Heads of state corporations may enter the government, and Andrei Belousov, an aide to the president, may become the first vice-premier.

Perhaps the return of "in power" Alexei Kudrin.

It is likely that Igor Shuvalov, Arkady Dvorkovich, Dmitry Rogozin, Vladimir Medinsky and some other officials will leave the government.

On Monday, May 7, the official inauguration ceremony of President Vladimir Putin, who has been elected for a fourth term, will take place. After the inauguration, the government will resign, and, in accordance with the law, a new cabinet should be formed within two weeks.

On Friday, May 4, Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said that exact date nomination of a new prime minister - "this is the exclusive prerogative of the President of Russia." There is no reliable information about what will be the composition and structure of the new government.

Dmitry Peskov answered Gazeta.Ru's questions about candidates for the post of prime minister, about possible "losses" in the government and appointments to key posts, and answered briefly: "for the time being, ask such questions anyway."

There is no answer even to the question of what will be published first: the presidential decree on national development goals until 2024 (it is being prepared by the head of the presidential administration Anton Vaino) or the name of the new prime minister.

Against the background of the complete absence of official information, “Kremlin experts”, as well as numerous sources, are giving out more and more new versions of resignations and appointments. There is a consensus among political scientists on some positions.

Fourth term prime minister

Dmitry Medvedev is likely to retain the post of prime minister. In an interview with the Rossiya-1 TV channel on April 28, he made it clear that the government as a whole had fulfilled the tasks set by the head of state. That is, it worked well, and why then leave?

Secondly, Medvedev clearly stated: “Of course, I'm not going to go on vacation just yet. I am ready to work and will work where I can bring maximum benefit to my country.”

The maximum benefit is just the post of prime minister, not counting the post of president. And it's really early for him to rest now. Pension reform, for example, it's time to carry out. Medvedev said that the authorities are on the verge of a legislative discussion of increasing retirement age.

Finally, Medvedev invited former US President Barack Obama to look at the Russian economy "torn to shreds" as a result of the imposition of sanctions. The invitation to come to Russia suggests that Medvedev is inviting not as a private person, but as a prime minister.

Fractions in the State Duma are already preparing for a meeting with Dmitry Medvedev as a candidate for the post of Russian prime minister, RIA Novosti reported on May 4, citing a source in parliament.

Earlier, Gazeta.Ru has already reported that, according to most sources in the government and the Kremlin, the current prime minister will retain his post.

One well-informed source close to the Kremlin noted that Medvedev had successfully arranged work with the government for Putin. In addition, the emergence of a new prime minister would draw attention to him as a likely successor to the president in the 2024 elections, says another source familiar with the situation.

According to him, it is more logical to expect a repetition of the scheme run in at the end of Vladimir Putin's second presidential term. Then, de facto, two deputy prime ministers competed for the right to become a successor: Sergei Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev.

If such a scenario is used this time as well, then the vice-presidents of the government will be under more scrutiny than the prime minister himself.

Where will the president send

If everything is more or less clear with the prime minister (although in fact the president can easily introduce another candidate), then with the deputy prime ministers it is much more interesting. According to sources, several deputies will leave the government at once.

In particular, we are talking about Igor Shuvalov, who has been in the civil service since 1998, and has been working as first deputy for almost 10 years. Sources and experts are sure that Shuvalov will not be in the new government.

The media named Shuvalov MSU as one of the possible places of work. However, two facts speak against this version at once. The term of office of the current rector of Moscow State University Viktor Sadovnichy expires only at the end of 2019. In addition, Igor Shuvalov may not have sufficient qualifications to manage scientific community- The Deputy Prime Minister did not defend his doctoral dissertation and has the scientific title of Candidate of Legal Sciences.

The most “popular” successor to Shuvalov is Andrei Belousov, presidential assistant for economic issues, who previously headed the ministry economic development.

For the past year, Belousov has been busy preparing for Putin a six-year plan for the socio-economic development of the country, and in the spring, together with Anton Vaino, he worked on a decree defining " national goals development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024.

Shuvalov himself, in response to a direct question about his future, said that “I want to work where the president says,” adding that “I am glad for any job that the president will give.”

The plan provides for an increase in spending on healthcare, education and infrastructure by 10 trillion rubles, Bloomberg reported. Dmitry Peskov said that this figure is not true. The head of the Accounts Chamber, Tatyana Golikova, estimated the cost of the plan at 8 trillion rubles. Belousov admitted that the "budget maneuver" is being worked out.

It is possible to increase spending on "human capital" and infrastructure by reducing spending on defense and national security, experts say. This process has already begun in Russia. The latest report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) recorded a 20% decline in defense spending in 2017.

"AT Russian army large-scale work on technical and technological renovation has been carried out. Basically, this process is completed. And therefore, the peak of expenses for technological re-equipment has been passed, ”Peskov explained the reduction in expenses.

In addition, Belousov swung to reduce poverty and create a steady increase in real incomes of the population, which were declining in 2014-2017.

“This is an increase in real pensions, an increase in pensions above inflation, as the president said, and this is a halving of the poverty rate by 2024. These are also very tense goals, and they have to be achieved,” said the assistant to the head of state.

Applicants for the management of the military-industrial complex

AT May holidays information appeared in the media that Igor Sechin, the head of Rosneft, could become deputy prime minister. The company promptly denied this rumor, saying that under the terms of the contract, he is obliged to work for the company for another two years.

Sechin's return to office is also doubtful because "" - for the first time in its history - announced plans to buy back its shares (buy-back) for $ 2 billion. The program will begin in the second quarter and will last until the end of 2020.

Another "vice" is called the head of "Rostec" Sergei Chemezov. He will oversee industry and the military-industrial complex instead of Dmitry Rogozin. He, as well as Arkady Dvorkovich, who is in charge of the agricultural industry, will probably have to leave the cabinet.

A transparent allusion to Dvorkovich's departure is contained in the arrest of Ziyavudin Magomedov, co-owner of the Summa group, a classmate of the Deputy Prime Minister. The Magomedov brothers (Ziyavudin and Magomed) are suspected of embezzlement, embezzlement and organizing a criminal community.

The place of Rogozin, as discussed, may also be taken by the current Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, retaining the post of head of the defense department.

The Ministry of Defense, if Shoigu leaves him, the governor can head Tula region Alexey Dyumin or Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces of the Russian Federation Sergey Surovikin.

Experts and the media draw good prospects for Denis Manturov - he can retain the post of head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade and at the same time become deputy prime minister.
Ex-minister tipped to return

Aleksey Kudrin, who previously held the post of head of the Ministry of Finance and deputy prime minister, could also become deputy chairman of the government. Kudrin, who headed the Center for Strategic Research, was instructed to prepare the country's development strategy until 2024. The document was previously presented to the president, and in April of this year it was posted on the CSR website.

It is also likely that Kudrin may be instructed to create and head the Center for the Efficiency of Public Administration, which may report personally to the president. The ex-minister recently spoke with Dmitry Medvedev about how to modernize the state apparatus.

On Friday, May 4, the CSR presented the report "The State as a Platform", which contains proposals for the transition of the government "to digital". This will be done by the same Center, which will be led by a vice-premier or a minister.

There is a significant obstacle for Kudrin's return to the government. Him complicated relationship with Dmitry Medvedev. Medvedev in 2011, being the president of the Russian Federation, dismissed Kudrin from the government after a series of careless statements by the latter.

An alternative to a position in the Cabinet is a post in the presidential administration. british Financial Times citing her sources, she said that “under Kudrin” they would create the position of representative of the head of state on international economic cooperation- to restore relations with the West.

Kudrin himself has not decided whether he is ready to return to the government or not. “I’m not going back anywhere and I haven’t commented on this topic for a long time. In my opinion, all these newspaper ducks are ahead of the possible events that could happen, ”he said. Representatives of Kudrin do not comment on rumors about his "comeback".

Tolstoy as a mirror of Russian culture

The hottest disputes in the media space arise around the figure of Vladimir Medinsky: will he be reappointed as Minister of Culture or not? There are many claims: from a doctoral dissertation allegedly compiled by Medinsky to corruption scandals and the creation of non-competitive conditions for film distributors.

And if he leaves, who will take his place? It is possible that this is Vladimir Tolstoy, the president's adviser on cultural issues. Or the creature of film director Nikita Mikhalkov - State Duma deputy Elena Yampolskaya. A candidate from the opposite ideological camp, Natalia Timakova, the prime minister's press secretary, is also being "wooted" for the position of head of the Ministry of Culture.

Rumor makers "fire" the Minister of Education and Science Olga Vasilyeva. She may return to the presidential administration, becoming an adviser on interfaith relations. The topic of her doctoral dissertation is "The Russian Orthodox Church in the Politics of the Soviet State in 1943-1948".

Some experts "suggest" to divide the ministry into two - education, as well as the ministry of science and new technologies. Science will get a new lobbyist, although it is not certain that more money will be allocated from the budget for innovation. There is a “ready-made” applicant for the post of Minister of Science.

The list of possible contenders for the post of head of the Ministry of Education includes State Duma deputies Lyubov Dukhanina and Alena Arshinova and others. Among the “others”, Elena Shmeleva, director of the Sochi Sirius Center, co-chair of the campaign headquarters of presidential candidate Putin, is strong.

For the position of chief in science, the professional community will read ex-minister of education Dmitry Livanov, as well as the general director of the agency for strategic initiatives Svetlana Chupsheva.

After the tragedy in the Kemerovo shopping center "Winter Cherry", the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations Vladimir Puchkov is the least likely to keep himself in the government. Doping scandals make the prospects of staying in the government of Vitaly Mutko miserable. The crisis in the air transportation market, caused by the bankruptcy of VIM-Avia, will cost Maxim Sokolov the post of Minister of Transport. His place may be taken by the head of Russian Railways, Oleg Belozerov, or the head of Aeroflot, Vitaly Savelyev.

The social block is likely to get a new leader. The "vice-premier's" chair of Olga Golodets will be given to one of the "strong female leaders." Sources talk about the head of the Accounts Chamber Tatyana Golikova, the speaker of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko. Among the candidates there are also non-obvious people. For example, State Duma deputy Olga Batalina.

Only three positions remain relatively strong in the new Cabinet: Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, who is gaining weight, the smiling Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin, as well as the elder of the Foreign Ministry, 68-year-old Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The last of them will leave, if only he asks for rest. Instead, sources tipped Dmitry Peskov.

However, everyone knows that Putin rarely makes appointments under pressure. public opinion and loves to surprise. Old and new ministers will have to take on “unpopular” decisions, from raising the retirement age to introducing new taxes. This makes the prospects of the new Cabinet of Ministers to hold out for all six years illusory.

06/25/2018, Mon, 15:53, Moscow time, Text: Valeria Shmyrova

The Prime Minister signed a resolution on the liquidation of the government commission for the coordination of activities " open government”, which was headed by Mikhail Abyzov. The reasons for the inefficiency of the project are varied - from the inability to build a dialogue between the state and citizens and business to the rejection of protests against the "Yarovaya Law".

Government Decree

In Russia, the government commission for coordinating the activities of the "Open Government" ceased to exist. The corresponding decree was signed by the Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. The text of the resolution is posted on the portal of the official publication of legal acts publication.pravo.gov.ru

In May, the President of Russia Vladimir Putin signed a decree on new structure government that abolished the Open Government Commission. Recall that this is the same decree by which the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications was renamed the Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media.

What did the commission do?

The government commission for coordinating the activities of the "Open Government" coordinated the cooperation of government agencies with representatives civil society and business circles, as well as public associations. Cooperation was carried out on the creation and operation of the "Open Government" system.

The commission was engaged in organizing and evaluating the results of public examination of regulatory legal acts of the government and state bodies. She also considered proposals aimed at increasing the level of openness of the work of state bodies, improving the system of public councils and exercising civil control.

The authorities abolished the commission on "Open Government"

In addition, the commission considered proposals for the application of the "Open Government" system against corruption, as well as for the benefit of competition and improving the conditions for entrepreneurship. The commission also prepared and considered proposals on the main directions of the government's activities, federal target programs and state programs.

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev was the chairman of the government commission for coordinating the activities of the Open Government. Deputy Chairman in the status of Federal Minister since 2012 has been Mikhail Abyzov.

Open government in Russia

Open government is a format of interaction between the state and the population, in which citizens have access to documents of bodies and departments, which allows public control of their activities. The transparency of the work of the authorities achieved in this way should help reduce the level of corruption and malfeasance.

The idea of ​​open government began to be implemented in Russia in 2011-2012. In July 2011, the concept of "Electronic budget" was adopted, which implies providing citizens with the opportunity to get acquainted with the state's expenditures. Disclosure of data by government agencies was provided for in the presidential decree "On the main directions for improving the system of public administration", adopted in May 2012.

In July 2013, the government obliged government agencies to publish information about their activities on the Internet and approved lists of such information. In January 2014, the Concept of openness of federal executive bodies was approved. In March 2014, an open data portal was launched Russian Federation, created at the request of the Ministry of Economic Development.

In the process of forming an open government, portals of public services, public procurement, draft regulations, e-budget, the Russian public initiative, government programs, legal statistics, legal information, regulatory impact assessments, and single register checks and the project "Your Control".

Reasons for the liquidation of the commission

Blogger Ivan Begtin, an open data expert, at the request of CNews, assessed the effectiveness of the work of the government commission for coordinating the activities of the Open Government and noted that its “tasks have changed, there were many of them, but the main thing is that the dialogue between authorities and citizens and business has not been built.”

In his blog, Begtin notes that in the six years of its existence, the Open Government has not received direct funding from the state. At the same time, “there is still no person who could answer how much money was spent on the Open Government, at least for federal level. The effectiveness of its activities in terms of cost-benefit was not evaluated.

In addition, during this period, cooperation between Russia and international associations countries that lead in terms of government openness. Also, representatives of the expert community interrupted cooperation with the Open Government, since it did not offer material remuneration for their work.

Useful for the work of "Open Government" non-profit organizations fell under the law on unwanted agents, and their work in this project was prevented by the regulation system of the Runet. Finally, the Russian Public Initiative, according to Begtin, failed.

“The Russian public initiative (roi.ru) consisted of collecting petitions and votes for petitions from citizens and considering them by an expert group headed by M. Abyzov. At the same time, all key petitions, such as the abolition of the Yarovaya Law, did not pass this expert group,” he writes.

Where did I get such information from? And today, a poll conducted by RAMIR was announced on the radio regarding the forthcoming adoption in the State Duma of the draft law prepared by the Government of D. Medvedev and not yet stopped by the President on raising the retirement age for both men and women. , our charming powerful cavaliers like L. Slutsky,) they want to remove women from their well-deserved pension for eight years, and men - only for five. But in an interview with yesterday's Izvestia, Secretary of the Public Chamber Valery Fadeev either played a joke, or spoke with complete seriousness. They say, “In my opinion, it is insulting for a woman at the age of 55 to receive what is called an old-age pension. I am 57 years old, and I hope that at 60 I will still be able to work.” True, I forgot to add a statesman, equated with the elite of bureaucracy, that he will be provided with work, he will not be like ordinary others. And "offensive" - ​​why is it swearing? Because the officials upper class, to which the Secretary of the Public Chamber belongs, pensions are not like those, excuse me, "cattle." They are calculated according to other Laws, "thieves", and not from Pension Fund they are paid, and go in a special line in the budget. (Deputies of the capitalist system have such communist benefits)

In the title, I did not mean personally Putin, but his, and the State Duma and government policy. Here Putin and Medvedev are lawyers by education. And Oleg Smolin, Academician, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Education and Science yesterday, on the Komsomolskaya Pravda radio, sharply opposed the increase in the age of pensions. The Deputy is not ignorant. A scientist, a practitioner, knows both science and production firsthand. What did he say. Back in 1995, the government sent a bill to the State Duma to raise the retirement age. But he didn't move. At that time, his social rottenness was understood. And now, after the triumphant re-election of V. Putin as President, at the time of the triumphant World Cup, it was finally decided to move him. In his Decree, V. Putin determined in the near future average age in the Russian Federation at the age of 78. But for some reason he was cautious in connection with this and promised an increase in the retirement period. True, State Duma deputy Smolin recalled that Putin had repeatedly assured the population that under his presidency, an increase in the retirement period would not occur. He assured - he promised! But promise - not to marry. Smolin is surprised that the main argument is the lack of money.

However, as an informed State Duma deputy reported, she recently adopted amendments to the budget. Due to high gas prices, it was increased by 1 trillion 800 billion rubles. Of this money, the deputies decided to spend only 5% on science and education. And pensioners have not been allocated even a ruble from these riches. Didn't they earn? Didn't they deserve it?

Another deputy on the radio said yesterday. He calculated that as a result of the adoption of the Law on Early Retirement, there will be one and a half million unemployed. Novykh. He, Smolin, asked the initiator of the long-standing increase in the retirement age, "friend" Kudrin, how to employ them? Jobs will not appear immediately. Kudrin replied that he did not know, because he was just an "accountant".

Smolin recalled that, in Russia, although we are equal to Europe, rhetorically, we are lagging behind in terms of average age. (We are in the second hundred.) From all countries, not only from Monaco, where it is already 89 years old. And not by 2024, Putin's year, but today. And their pensions, Smolin said, are average - 2800, 3400 euros each, even in Greece 930 euros. In Poland, even average pensions are twice as large as in Russia...

And another convincing, I would say, just a terrible argument against the new Bill. The academician stated that with the adoption of the Law, 50% of workers will not live to see their pensions. But isn't this a demographic catastrophe? Ahead? If the bill "United Russia" is approved ...

Miracle didn't happen new office the ministers were headed by Dmitry Medvedev, and since the economic block was entrusted to the liberal Anton Siluanov, the course, most likely, will remain the same for the time being. At the same time, the authorities shuffled the deck of ever-memorable functionaries, transferring them to new positions in the government - Vitaly Mutko, Olga Golodets, and others.

Experts disagree on the composition of the cabinet, while noting that while oil prices are on the rise, abrupt change course may not be appropriate. On the other hand, if the situation changes and becomes worse, the unpopular government can be easily and simply “demolished”.

On the eve of the reappointment of Dmitry Medvedev, an event took place on which the Kremlin, as it were, gradually emphasized Special attention: President Vladimir Putin discussed the country's development prospects with Svetlana Chupsheva, head of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives (ASI). It is ASI that carries out strategic planning activities of the government in the economic and social sphere, while this structure is directly supervised by the President of Russia. In fact, the course that the government will follow is entrusted to draw Chupsheva - under the strict supervision of Putin - and not Medvedev at all. In turn, the technical oversight of how the government will implement the ideas of the ASI, it seems, will be entrusted to Konstantin Chuichenko, the head of the control department of the presidential administration, who is tipped to be the head of the government apparatus. Here they are, two new "power centers" of executive power, ideological and power. Two "stretched" ones, which will entail a new old office behind them.

Why did the president decide to keep Dmitry Medvedev at the head of the government? Everything is easier than a steamed turnip: the new cabinet will have to launch a number of unpopular reforms - in particular, to raise the retirement age and abandon a number of social guarantees

Alexei Kudrin "identified as accountants"

But just a few days ago it seemed that everything would be different: the strategic planning of the government's work would be entrusted to the Center for Strategic Research, whose chief, Alexei Kudrin, the influential Bloomberg and Financial Times even predicted to be new prime ministers. Kudrin himself, it seems, was waiting for this appointment. But, it turns out, in vain - as a consolation prize, he was offered to head the Accounts Chamber. And Kudrin said he would think about it. Which, in general, is far-sighted: the experience of Tatyana Golikova, who was invited to the vice-premier of the new cabinet, shows that the joint venture can become a good career springboard. Just not the fact that Kudrin will accept the offer " United Russia» lead the joint venture. The fact is that the joint venture is an organ of parliamentary control, including over the activities of the government. The implementation of which, in fact, is entrusted to Anton Siluanov. Faithful curmudgeon. Chupsheva makes plans, Chuichenko monitors their execution, and Siluanov, in fact, embodies and executes. From him, by and large, and ask. And Kudrin was instructed to control Siluanov! Truly, the one who came up with all this is not devoid of a sense of humor. The political scientist Mikhail Vinogradov joked about the new appointment of Kudrin: “The plan was to return as a reformer prime minister, but it turned out that they were appointed accountants.” “Kudrin may have gone too far by posting an article in the Financial Times about his future appointment,” suggested American economist Paul Craig Roberts, a former Ronald Reagan administration official. - Long time he managed to enjoy the loyalty of the President of Russia, but now it is in the past.”

But why did the president decide to leave Dmitry Medvedev at the head of the government? Everything is simpler than a steamed turnip: the new cabinet will have to launch a number of unpopular reforms - in particular, to raise the retirement age and abandon a number of social guarantees. Medvedev's "popularity" among the people is such that this word can only be put in quotation marks, - explains the professor of the department international finance MGIMO Valentin Katasonov. - Even our servile sociological services cannot wind up a more or less decent rating for him. And according to the anti-rating, Medvedev is ahead of all his closest competitors.” And he remained at the head of the cabinet for only one reason, the expert believes: “Medvedev is nothing more than a tool. To cut, to bleed." A proven tool for the dirty work. What the Prime Minister, in general, immediately confirmed the very first thing after his reappointment: "We need to make a decision, the old framework for the retirement age was taken a long time ago."

There is, however, another explanation for the fact that Medvedev was left behind. “We don't know how much pressure the West has put in terms of keeping the incumbent prime minister,” says economist Mikhail Khazin. “But I am convinced that such pressure was exerted. Medvedev is not liked in Beijing, and therefore, from the point of view of the West, it was very desirable to keep him.”

Andrey Illarionov, economist, former adviser to the President of Russia:

- The government will work as long as the President of Russia decides. There is, figuratively speaking, a substitution of the tasks of the government, the cabinet is deliberately set goals that are easily achievable, and this has always been the case. In 2007, the goal was set to enter the five leading economies of the world by 2017 - the task was completed in a year. Either there were gross miscalculations in the forecasts, or the task was initially too simple. Then a similar goal, to enter the top five economies in the world, was set in 2008 and 2011-2013. Now, as a special achievement for the future, a goal repeatedly achieved in the past is formulated. In fact, there are no big claims against the government - why change it? It would be another matter if the Kremlin had set real tasks for the cabinet, then the demand would have been different.

See who's gone

A few words about those who were "asked" from the government. First of all, attention is drawn to the resignation of the head of the government apparatus, Sergei Prikhodko, who figured in the scandalous story with the demi-monde lady Nastya Rybka. Prikhodko was considered one of the most influential figures in the former government, and therefore even loud scandal did not become a reason for his instant resignation. And he did not keep his portfolio for another reason - he was too distracted by foreign policy issues, in which he was considered a good specialist. Whereas time demanded a more solid figure in this post, fully concentrated on monitoring the execution by the government of what it was instructed to do. By the way, it was Prikhodko who supervised the execution of the May decrees of the president, but he did it, let's say, not too selflessly.

The fact that the new government is unlikely to find a place for Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, our publication has already reported, and we were not mistaken. Another Deputy Prime Minister, Arkady Dvorkovich, is also looking for a new job - apparently, it will be the Skolkovo Foundation (Dvorkovich is a member board of trustees this fund). But it is not entirely clear whether this is a reward or retribution. In the meantime, the fund is headed by billionaire Viktor Vekselberg, to whom more and more questions appear in power every day.

See who's come

Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak also worked in the previous government, only his role was much less important: he oversaw for the most part issues related to the Crimea, and before that - with the Olympic construction, being distracted from time to time by a variety of emergency jobs, with which he coped well. Now Kozak was entrusted with supervising industry and energy - earlier Dvorkovich and Shuvalov were engaged in this. Their supervision made it possible for the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Denis Manturov, to get stronger - even the numerous scandals that he got into during the six years of his ministerial activity did not affect his career. Now it will be different: Kozak has a tough temper and will probably ask Manturov for the full program and for low economic growth, and, possibly, for the scandalous stories associated with Rostec and Russian Helicopters. In these two structures, Kozak's new appointment, to put it mildly, is not welcome.

Here's to the minister Agriculture Alexander Tkachev's appointment of Alexei Gordeev as Deputy Prime Minister is the same as the elevation of Kozak for Manturov. Beginning of the End. Gordeev is not just a former Minister of Agriculture - he ate more than one dog on him. It was under Gordeev that the whole operating system state support for the agro-industrial complex. Under Gordeev, Russia again began to export rather than import grain for the first time since Stalin's time. Under Gordeev, the first quotas for meat imports were introduced - it was 15 years ago, and at the same time in Russia they first heard about the protection of domestic agricultural producers and import substitution. At the suggestion of Gordeev, the Land Code and the federal law"On the turnover of agricultural land" - the key documents that anticipated the further successful development of the industry. For 10 years, while agriculture was managed by Gordeev, public funding the industry has grown fivefold - evaluate the lobbying skills of this manager! And now Alexander Tkachev will have a hard time - the demand from him will be the highest. However, Tkachev can always retreat to his native Kuban - which he is likely to do.

If Dmitry Kozak was somehow promoted within the framework of the vice-premiership, then his colleague Olga Golodets - on the contrary. In fact, the entire social sphere was taken away from Golodets, except for culture, but they loaded it with extremely neglected sports and physical education. In addition, it was decided to reduce the financing of the latter by almost three times - it is hardly possible to expect significant breakthroughs with such initial ones. At the same time, the responsibility for hosting the 2018 FIFA World Cup was also blamed on Golodets, and the one who was supposed to bear this responsibility, Deputy Prime Minister for Sports Vitaly Mutko, successfully changed his direction of activity, leading the construction and regional policy. This appointment caused more than a mixed reaction. “About what Mutko will do in regional policy, it’s scary to even think about it, - believes economist Mikhail Delyagin, - and you can, in all likelihood, simply forget about the task set by the president to increase the commissioning of housing to 120 million square meters per year.

For the Minister of Agriculture Alexander Tkachev, the appointment of Alexei Gordeev as Deputy Prime Minister is the same as the rise of Kozak for Manturov. Beginning of the End

Andrei Bunich, economist, head of the Union of Entrepreneurs and Tenants of Russia:

– The duality of the situation is as follows: the government intends to continue the previous economic policy both in macroeconomics and in the fiscal sphere, but it is precisely the continuation of the current course that is the main risk. Economic growth is impossible within the framework of this policy. And Medvedev has already announced that an additional 8 trillion rubles will have to be found to implement the new May decrees. In such a situation, not growth, but a drawdown of the economy is much more likely, unless, of course, oil prices go down. The Kremlin will have to sacrifice foreign policy, and this can cause a domino effect, undermine the situation within the country. In turn, the West will accept concessions, but will not give anything in return, we already went through this in the early 90s. In the meantime, the whole economic strategy boils down to cutting social obligations, raising taxes and stealing money somewhere.

The resignation of the new government is not far off?

How long will the new old government of Dmitry Medvedev last? Expert opinions on this matter differ significantly. “Now that oil prices have risen, the government's dead-end course is not so obvious,” explains economist Andrei Bunich. “But as soon as black gold becomes cheaper, the secret will become clear, and Medvedev may still be fired.” At the same time, the Medvedev government can work for a year or two. And even more, the opposition politician Yuri Boldyrev believes: “Everyone who seriously counted on any kind of renewal can postpone their hopes for another six years at least. No “left turn”, no turn of politics towards greater social and national responsibility is foreseen.” However, the president will be able to replace the government when he sees fit, the director of the Center for Political Studies believes. Financial University Pavel Salin: “Everything will depend on the external situation - oil prices and the West's policy towards our country. If the president decides what needs to be adjusted economic course the government will be dismissed. But if everything goes on as in previous years, then this government will not be replaced soon. I think this government is not for six years, but for three or four years.” However, this time is enough to carry out all unpopular decisions.

Most experts assess the prolongation of Medvedev's premier term either ironically or negatively: almost no one expects a breakthrough. Against this background, the assessment given by economist Mikhail Khazin seems paradoxical: “I do not think that changes in the government are a bad signal. As a person who knows a little about hardware games and public administration, I cannot but admit that the liberal team has received a very serious blow. Let me explain: the economic downturn will continue, presidential decrees will not be carried out, and the president is unlikely to like it. And already this autumn, all this will inevitably lead to the resignation of the government.

The government will inevitably change - this is required by law. We are talking about the technical resignation after the inauguration, which will take place on May 7th. According to Art. 35 of the Law "On the Government of the Russian Federation", the Cabinet of Ministers resigns on the day the new president takes office. Then the head of state will have to nominate a new prime minister within two weeks, and he will propose his team to the president within a week.

In 2012, Vladimir Putin, having barely returned to the presidency, submitted a candidacy to the State Duma. The deputies agreed without hesitation. Putin built the backbone of the new administration from ministers and government officials with whom he had worked in the White House since 2008. Medvedev, on the contrary, transferred the team from the Kremlin to Krasnopresnenskaya embankment. So, who worked as the Minister of Education and Science in the Putin government, he became an assistant to President Putin. And President Medvedev's aide became deputy prime minister in Medvedev's cabinet. Appointments ran through May 21st.

If not Medvedev, then who?

Medvedev has been fired countless times. Not only in the media and in the expert community, hackers also joined a kind of flash mob. In August 2014, unknown cybercriminals attacked the Prime Minister's Twitter account. “I am retiring. Shame on the actions of the government. Excuse me... I'll become a freelance photographer. I have been dreaming for a long time, ”Medvedev’s fake monologue began with such a recording at about 10 am. Within an hour, all tweets were deleted. The press service of the government promptly confirmed to journalists that the prime minister's account had been hacked.

Photo: Alexey Nikolsky / RIA Novosti

Dmitry Medvedev steadfastly ignored these rumors, and generally did not comment on his career intentions. The very next day after presidential elections he asked subordinates to ensure the smooth functioning of the economy and social sphere before the inauguration. Observers, confident that they will say goodbye to Medvedev, send him along two routes: to and to Supreme Court. That is, in any case - to his native St. Petersburg.

Who, if not Medvedev, can lead the new government? They call the chairman, the mayor of Moscow, the head. And, of course, the name sounds traditional. Such an appointment would be cruel to Medvedev: in 2011, he scandalously fired Kudrin from his post as finance minister. The whole country watched Kudrin's facial expression on television: he looked at Medvedev with mockery. On the proposal to resign with a challenge, he replied: "I will make a decision after consulting with the prime minister [that is, with Putin]." “You can consult with anyone, but as long as I am president, I make such decisions myself,” Medvedev became even more angry.

So, shortly after the presidential election, Kudrin wrote an article for, in which he talked about the future government. The Cabinet, according to Kudrin, will have only two years to implement the change agenda - "not even a window of opportunity, but a window." During these two years, everything that has been put off over the past years because of the upcoming elections and under various excuses, the main of which is that “these measures are unpopular,” Kudrin believes, must be done.

Favorite Minister

Shortly after the elections, information appeared on the RTVI website about the possible resignation of Lavrov: referring to sources in, the media reported that it was no secret to anyone in the Russian foreign ministry that its head "had long wanted to leave", and only at the request of Vladimir Putin remained on his office before the presidential election. Sources also note that Lavrov may take some honorary post. Wherein official representative The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, commenting on the information, answered in a streamlined way: “If it depended on me ... but it does not depend on me. There is a president, there are appropriate procedures. I just can't answer that question."

Photo: Kirill Kallinikov / RIA Novosti

Lavrov has been working as Minister of Foreign Affairs for 14 years. We say MFA - we mean Lavrov, he is one of the most popular Russian ministers. His phrases turned into quotes, his portraits became a print on souvenir T-shirts, his ability to wear a suit is an example for all colleagues. But such work is the strongest stress, both physical and moral, especially in the last four years - after the annexation of Crimea.

The question of Lavrov's resignation with an honorable move - for example, to - has been discussed for a long time. Among the contenders for his place, the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov is most often named: the same involvement in international politics, publicity, the ability to communicate with the press. And, finally, Peskov is a native of the Foreign Ministry.

Another contender for Lavrov's place, according to political scientists, is. In January, he was appointed Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, has great experience negotiations with Western partners, last years represented Russia at . The work of Alexander Grushko as a permanent representative just fell on a deep crisis in relations between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance, which arose against the backdrop of the Ukrainian conflict.

Clouds thickened in the black sky

If anyone knew that the past 2017 was the Year of Ecology, then certainly no one noticed the changes. The head is tipped to resign due to an objectively huge tangle environmental issues. All scandals related to landfills, with the regime of the black sky over Krasnoyarsk and, finally, with the draft law on the protection of animals sunk in the bowels of the State Duma - all this is the patrimony of the Ministry of Natural Resources.

In November 2017, against the backdrop of a high-profile story about the Kuchino dump near Moscow, Putin instructed the minister to finally restore order in the field of waste disposal around large cities. Of course, there is no need to talk about any final decision: it has not been decided with Kuchino either, and a new trouble has been added - Yadrovo. Not only has the long-suffering bill on animal welfare not been passed, there has also appeared strange story with the new edition of the Red Book. From there, the remaining endangered species of animals - in particular, bighorn sheep and Himalayan bear, excellent objects for currency hunting.

Will not reach and will not reach

The resignation also threatens the Minister of Transport . Last fall, after the bankruptcy of the VIM-Avia airline, he received from the President a public disciplinary action. Putin criticized the criteria that did not allow timely detection of problems in the activities of VIM-Avia: “If you have developed such criteria, then what are they worth?” The vice-premier of the government, Arkady Dvorkovich, who oversees transport, also got it. “You don't pay enough attention to this industry. Maybe you are overworked too? Putin asked.

Photo: Vladimir Fedorenko / RIA Novosti

A few years ago, a similar story happened with the abolition of commuter trains. After the government removed state subsidies for suburban passenger companies, in some regions the number of commuter train routes was sharply reduced and fares increased. “Electric trains stopped going to the regions - are you out of your mind?” - the president was indignant at the meeting, turning to Dvorkovich. Shortly thereafter, the Minister of Transport reported on the resumption of the work of electric trains on 300 routes.

After the tragedy in Kemerovo, they again started talking about the possible resignation of the Minister for Civil Defense, emergencies and elimination of consequences natural Disasters. There are a lot of questions about fire supervision in general - for example, every year officers of this service are detained for taking bribes.

To the question of culture

There is a surprisingly stable minister in the current cabinet - this is the minister of culture. AT different time The media tried to announce his resignation. Among the possible replacements were the presidential adviser on cultural issues, State Duma deputy Elena Yampolskaya, and even the press secretary of the prime minister. But Medinsky is still in his chair and clearly does not intend to leave. It seems that the same point of view is taken in the Kremlin: Medinsky is not only criticized, but also regularly praised. And it clearly satisfies all the interests of the Kremlin.

Allergens, heavyweights and technocrats

At the end of last year, the Petersburg Politics Foundation published an analytical report on its website, in which it ranked members of the government according to their public images. The head and vice-premier have become "allergens" for public opinion. Often, the resignation of such figures is postponed based on a greater image effect when replaced.

Vasilyeva's public image is strongly associated with the introduction of Orthodoxy and morality lessons in schools. Mutko has become a hostage to the contrast between the propaganda of the "former greatness of Soviet sports" and the humiliation of Russian athletes. The Ministry of Communications and the Minister of Economic Development are symbols of personnel rejuvenation.

Putin hasn't decided yet

There is no point in arguing about which of the ministers will leave and who will remain, the president of the communication holding Minchenko Consulting is sure. "It will be a big game of solitaire, which includes the government, regional leaders, management of large corporations and non-governmental structures. Therefore, all these fortune-telling on coffee grounds do not make much sense. Moreover, the surnames are not fundamental - the balance within the Politburo 2.0 is fundamental (the structure of Vladimir Putin's "inner circle" - approx. "Tapes.ru"). And in general, will the system of curators represented by the leaders of large elite groups be preserved,” the expert says.

In his opinion, even Putin will not describe the configuration. The President is still playing this solitaire. The issue with the Prime Minister has not been resolved either - despite the fact that Medvedev remains the favorite, he is not guaranteed to retain the premiership.

“There will be changes, of course,” the leading expert is sure. He identifies two main intrigues: the first is who will head the government. “With the post of chairman, there are options for development. Inertial - the preservation of Medvedev, a man absolutely understandable, predictable and reliable for Putin. Another option is an unexpected appointment, as was the case with (Prime Minister from 2004 to 2007) or (Prime Minister from September 2007 to May 2008). And the option under the fashionable name "technocrat": he does the job that he was assigned and, perhaps, leaves closer to the parliamentary elections, ”says Makarkin.

The second intrigue lies not in personalities, but in the tasks of the new government. Unpopular reforms - the same increase in the retirement age - were postponed until the presidential election. Now it's time to implement them. Even Medvedev that the issue is overdue.

The figure that takes responsibility for this will leave a long negative trail in the memory of the people. And the remaining ministers will envy the departed.