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social forecasting

Introduction

The Emergence of Social Prediction

Fundamentals of social forecasting

Methods of social forecasting

4. Principles of operation and conditions for the reliability of social forecasting

Conclusion

List of used literature

Introduction

The recent social transformations in our country have actualized the problem of predictive research in the social sphere.

Russia's exit from the crisis, substantiation of the strategy of social development, determination of short-term and long-term programs require innovative actions and broad modern thinking based on the integration of sciences. Forecasting occupies a particularly important place here as a high-tech method of scientific analysis and foresight.

Now scientists and practitioners face the need to realize the possibilities of human influence on the development of society, the world as a whole; clarify the relationship between objective processes, on the one hand, and human impact on them, on the other. The conceptual vision of the future, its forecasting depends on this: either it is only a designation of developing trends and a forecast assumed on their basis, or it is a forecast taking into account the possibilities and necessity of human influence on the emerging development trends in accordance with modern ideas and beliefs.

The essence of this scientific direction is a systematic analysis of social processes through the prism of theoretical and methodological principles to identify problems and trends in social development, to determine ways to solve social problems.

In modern conditions, the ability to foresee and predict the future, and, consequently, to influence social processes is also becoming one of the most valuable qualities of a young specialist.

The Emergence of Social Prediction

Society's interest in social forecasting is historically associated with attempts to predict the occurrence of certain events, as well as the development of various processes. In the conditions of global wars and local military conflicts, economic and political upheavals that filled the entire world history of the 20th century, the appeal to social forecasting was predominantly of an emergency nature. The scientific need for forecasting was formulated by the American scientist N. Wiener in the form of the foundations of cybernetics in the 40s. XX century. In 1968, when the entire world community was concerned about the ongoing threats of the start of a third world war, the prominent public figure and industrialist A. Peccei founded the "Club of Rome" - an international organization of scientists, politicians and entrepreneurs, the purpose of which was to draw attention to strategic problems and prospects world development. The reports prepared for the club by the prominent scientists J. Forrester, D. Tinbergen, B. Gavrilishin and others gave impetus to the development of science.

In the development of forecasting, the main time stages can be distinguished.

The beginning of predictive research dates back to the 1950s, when simple predictive models began to be widely used. In the 1960s - 1970s. there was a kind of "forecasting boom" - theoretical questions were developed, new methods were developed, complex forecasting models were created. From the late 1970s - early 1980s. the next stage in the development of scientific forecasting is coming, the achievements of forecasting are used in the activities of enterprises and organizations of various profiles.

Today social forecasting is the most important technology of social work.

2. Fundamentals of social forecasting

For the Russian society, which has survived the socio-economic and spiritual and moral crisis, ensuring the effectiveness of the management of social processes, the need to develop a predictive vision of development, prospects has become one of the urgent tasks in the field of both theoretical research and the scientific justification of social practice.

Today, more than ever, an integrated systemic analysis of social development is needed, which makes it possible to see and trace the trends, course and dynamics of social processes.

Forecasting – it is a social theory of knowledge. It is in specific interaction with a number of theoretical doctrines, concepts, systems that, to one degree or another, consider the future as the main object, carry out on different levels- theoretical, psychological-intuitive, practical - the study of its problems. Forecasting is fruitful only when it is based on scientific systems of cognition that make it possible to foresee the course of processes, social phenomena, development trends and the social consequences of the practical measures taken.

It should be taken into account that a certain level of theoretical thinking, a culture of thinking is necessary for successful forecasting and modeling of social processes. Otherwise, it is impossible to correctly build the logic of practical actions, to model options for the development of social situations, to predict their development trends, to take into account all the possible consequences of the actions taken for one or another subsystem of the social sphere and for society as a whole.

The main concepts of this field of knowledge are: “forecasting”, “forecasting”, “forecasting”, “principles of social forecasting”, “forecasting in social practice”, etc.

Prognostics is a science about the system of our thinking about the future, about the ways and methods of studying the future. The methodology of predictive research is based on the most valuable theoretical achievements of many sciences: historical, mathematical, philosophy, sociology. Forecasting is a method of scientific research that aims to provide possible options for those processes and phenomena that are chosen as the subject of analysis.

The methodology of predictive research is based on the principle of a holistic, systematic, complex consideration of an object, taking into account its hierarchical subordination, its relationships both vertically (by level) and horizontally (with related industries), dependence on external factors and internal changes.

An equally important principle is a clear definition of the status, features of the object of predictive research, a preliminary theoretical analysis of its essence based on the existing level of scientific knowledge, which will allow at all stages of the study to adhere to uniformity in the conceptual apparatus and terminology, and in the process of summarizing the results to achieve the maximum possible objectivity, reliability and accuracy.

The practical purpose of forecasting is the preparation of reasonable proposals, projects, programs, recommendations and assessments about:

In what direction is it desirable to develop objects in the study area;

How development can actually take place;

What is the mechanism for overcoming negative trends.

In general terms, we can talk about two types of tasks: defining and motivating the development goal; determination of means, ways, ways to achieve goals.

The full cycle of predictive research includes: study of the problem situation in theory and practice; analysis of pre-forecast and forecast background; definition of goals and objectives; hypotheses; selection of research methods and techniques that have the necessary prognostic potential; conducting experimental testing of hypotheses and verification of research results; formulation of conclusions and proposals.

The forecast is a multivariate hypothesis about the possible results and ways of development of the object under study (sphere, industry, type of activity, etc.). The purpose of the forecast is the desire to provide answers to the range of questions that make up the essence of the problem.

Social forecasting is the forecasting of everything social, everything connected with society, social relations, in the center of which is a person.

Foreign experience (in particular, the United States) shows that the forecasting of social systems occupies a leading position (53%) among other areas of research. In terms of time parameters, the ratio of studies in percentage is as follows: for 5 - 10 years - 52%; for 5 - 25 years - 64%; for 10 - 25 and more years - 26%.

Depending on the time period for which the forecast is made, they are:

Short-term (from 1 month to 1 year);

Medium-term (from 1 year to 5 years);

Long-term (from 5 years to 15 years);

Long-term (over 15 years).

The forecasting process itself involves: conducting a brief retrospective analysis of the predicted object; description of the current state of the object (comparative analysis of observed trends in domestic and foreign experience); problem identification:

Already resolved, but their implementation and implementation is just beginning;

Those problems that have been solved, but have not found practical use;

Assessed by experts in leading scientific research in the field.

When conducting a social forecasting study, methodological and organizational characteristics are taken into account and carefully developed, as well as specific features of the forecast and recommendations for borrowing its positive features.

Methodological aspects include, for example, the use of a systematic approach, the analysis of a problem based on a retrospective study of historical analogies.

An integral part of social forecasting is its organizational aspects, such as:

Creation of a temporary creative team (VTK) and definition of its functions and each member separately;

Definition of methods, objects of research;

Development of a forecasting technique;

Definition of computer research methods, sociological research.

Thus, social forecasting makes it possible to foresee the results and timely eliminate the causes of social problems.

3. Methods of social forecasting

Social forecasting as a study with a wide scope of objects of analysis is based on many methods. When classifying forecasting methods, their main features are distinguished, allowing them to be structured according to: the degree of formalization; principle of action; way to get information.

The degree of formalization in forecasting methods, depending on the object of study, may be different; methods for obtaining predictive information are ambiguous, they should include: methods of associative modeling, morphological analysis, probabilistic modeling, questioning, interview method, methods of collective generation of ideas, methods of historical and logical analysis, writing scripts, etc. The most common methods of social forecasting are the methods of extrapolation, modeling and expertise.

Extrapolation means the extension of conclusions concerning one part of a phenomenon to another part, to the phenomenon as a whole, to the future. Extrapolation is based on the hypothesis that previously identified patterns will operate in the forecast period. For example, a conclusion about the level of development of a social group can be drawn from observations of its individual representatives, and about the prospects of culture - from the trends of the past.

The extrapolation method is diverse - it has at least five different options. Statistical extrapolation - the projection of population growth according to past data - is one of the most important methods of modern social forecasting.

Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their counterparts - material or mental.

An analogue of an object can be, for example, its layout, drawing, diagram, etc. In the social sphere, mental models are more often used. Working with models allows you to transfer experimentation from a real social object to its mentally constructed duplicate and avoid the risk of an unsuccessful, all the more dangerous for people, management decision. The main feature of a mental model is that it can be subject to any kind of tests, which practically consist in changing the parameters of itself and the environment in which it (as an analogue of a real object) exists. This is the great advantage of the model. It can also act as a model, a kind of ideal type, an approximation to which may be desirable for the creators of the project.

The most practiced forecasting method is peer review. According to E.I. Kholostova, “expertise is a study of a problem that is difficult to formalize, which is carried out by forming an opinion (preparing a conclusion) of a specialist who is able to compensate for the lack or non-systematic nature of information on the issue under study with his knowledge, intuition, experience in solving similar problems and relying on “common sense ".

There are such spheres of social life in which it is impossible to use other methods of forecasting, except for expert ones. First of all, this applies to those areas where there is no necessary and sufficient information about the past.

When an expert assessment of the state of either a separate social sphere, or its constituent element, or its components, a number of mandatory provisions and methodological requirements are taken into account. First of all, an assessment of the initial situation:

Factors predetermining unsatisfactory condition;

Directions, tendencies, the most characteristic for a given state of the situation;

Features, specifics of the development of the most important components;

The most characteristic forms of work, the means by which activities are carried out.

The second block of questions includes an analysis of the activities of those organizations and services that carry out this activity. Evaluation of their activities is to identify trends in their development, their rating in public opinion.

Expert assessment is carried out by special centers of expertise, scientific information and analytical centers, expert laboratories, expert groups and individual experts.

The methodology of expert work includes a number of stages:

The circle of experts is determined;

Problems are identified;

A plan and time for action is outlined;

Criteria for expert assessments are being developed;

The forms and methods in which the results of the examination will be expressed are indicated (analytical note, round table, conference, publications, speeches by experts).

So, social forecasting is based on various research methods, the main of which are extrapolation, modeling and expertise.

4. Principles of operation and conditions for the reliability of social forecasting

The efficiency and reliability of forecasts is predetermined by many factors, including compliance with the basic principles of the approach and the research process itself.

Among the most important of them are:

Selection of the main factors and elements of this system, determination of their role and significance in the social sphere;

Identification based on the analysis of the main trends in the development of the studied processes (unemployment, social protection, etc.);

Extrapolating these trends into the future;

Synthesis of these future trajectories in present social processes;

Integration with forecasts in other areas of public activity;

Compilation of a comprehensive multi-level forecast both in general and for individual processes and areas;

Continuous adjustment of forecasts.

The main conditions for the reliability of forecasts include:

a) depth and objectivity of the analysis;

b) knowledge of specific conditions;

c) efficiency, competence and speed in carrying out and processing materials.

Of particular importance in social forecasting is information, a database of statistical material.

In theoretical and methodological terms, it is necessary to take into account a number of important provisions:

Perception of social processes as an objective reality;

Using a holistic, systematic approach to research;

Historical determinism, i.e. recognition of the causal-causal conditions of these processes.

Conclusion

Forecasting is one of the most important stages of project activity. Mankind, having forecasts, consciously seeks and finds ways to the exit. First - hunting and gathering, then - the transition to agriculture and pastoralism, from nomadic to settled way of life, from villages to urban settlements; development of the resources of the World Ocean, etc. Forecasting in a broad sense is a prediction, in general, of any information received about the future. In a narrow sense - a special scientific study, the subject of which are the prospects for the development of phenomena.

One of the most important types of forecasting is social forecasting - this is the prediction of trends and prospects for the possible development of social systems, objects, social phenomena, processes. The object of social forecasting can be all social systems, all phenomena occurring in society. According to Zh.P. Toshchenko, "social forecasting is the definition of development options and types of the most acceptable, optimal, based on their resources, time and social forces that can ensure their implementation."

Forecasting is an integral part of the process of developing a social project. In isolation from design, forecasting loses its practical meaning. Social forecasting makes it possible to take into account various options for the movement and development of social systems. The development of correct forecasts makes it possible to make management more perfect, and design more efficient.

List of used literature

Dobrov G.M. Forecasting workbook. - M.: 1998

Kurbatov V.I. Social work: Textbook. - M .: Publishing and Trade Corporation "Dashkov and K", Rostov n / D: Nauka - Press, 2007 - 480s. – (Bachelor)

Lukov V.A. Social design. - M.: 1997

Fundamentals of social work: Proc. allowance for students. higher textbook institutions / Ed. N.F. Basov. - M.: Publishing Center "Academy", 2004. - 288 p.

Safronova V.M. Forecasting and modeling in social work: Proc. allowance for students. higher textbook establishments. - M .: Publishing Center "Academy", 2002. - 192p.

Toshchenko Zh.T. Sociology. General course. 2nd ed. - M., 1998

Kholostova E.I. Social work: Textbook. - 4th ed. - M .: Publishing and Trade Corporation "Dashkov and K", 2007. - 668s.

Yadov V.A. Sociological research: Methodology, program, methods. - M., 1995

http//www.i - u/biblio/archive/socprogn

http//www.planetadisser/see/dis_54366.html

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COURSE WORK

Subject "Fundamentals of social forecasting"

Topic "Methodology of social forecasting"

Introduction

Forecasting - it is a method of scientific research, which aims to provide possible options for those processes and phenomena that are chosen as the subject of analysis.

The forecasting process is quite relevant at the present time. The scope of its application is wide. Forecasting is widely used in economics, namely in management. In management, the concepts of "planning" and "forecasting" are closely intertwined. They are not identical and do not replace each other. Plans and forecasts differ from each other by time limits, the degree of detail of the indicators contained in them, the degree of accuracy and probability of their achievement, targeting, and, finally, legal basis. Forecasts, as a rule, are indicative, and plans have directive power. Not a substitution and opposition of the plan and forecast, but their the right combination- this is the way of systematic regulation of the economy in a market economy and the transition to it.

In industry, forecasting methods also play a paramount role. Using extrapolation and trend, it is possible to draw preliminary conclusions about various processes, phenomena, reactions, operations. There are many forecasting methods. Differentiating them total number, it is necessary to choose the best one for use in each specific situation.

The analysis of forecasting methods, the study of these methods, their use in various fields of activity is an activity of a rationalization nature. The degree of reliability of forecasts can then be compared with really real indicators, and, having drawn conclusions, proceed to the next forecast with existing data, i.e. existing trend. Based on the data obtained, it is possible to move to a higher level in the time aspect, etc.

Predictive model - a model of the object of forecasting, the study of which allows obtaining information about the possible states of objects in the future and (or) the ways and timing of their implementation.

social forecasting- forecasting of everything social, everything connected with society, social relations, in the center of which is a person.

1.1 The concept and essence of the methodology of social forecasting

Forecasting- the science of the system of our thinking about the future, about the ways and methods of studying the future, about finding multivariate alternatives for changing the future, which is of a probabilistic nature.

Prognostics (futurology) is a scientific discipline about the patterns of developing forecasts.

social forecasting is aimed at making changes in the social sphere of a person and society and is one of the manifestations of the purposeful activity of managers in the development and preparation of various solutions social problems.

Methodology of social forecasting explores the future in ontological, logical and epistemological aspects.

ontological aspect shows how the future is born and formed, characterizes its overall picture, the factors influencing it.

Logical aspect allows you to form a forecast based on dialectical principles, which are based on the general laws of the development of nature and society, as well as methods of scientific thinking.

Gnoseological aspect has as its task to find out how the future is displayed in the human mind, what are the forms of this display, its truth. Being a form of cognition, the forecast from the epistemological side is a reflection of the patterns and possible ways of development of the predicted processes and phenomena.

The knowledge of objective truth in forecasting occurs in the direction from living contemplation to abstract thinking, and from it to practical implementation.

Methodology(concept, doctrine) - a system of principles and methods for organizing and constructing theoretical and practical activities, as well as a doctrine about this system. If theory is the result of a process of cognition, then methodology is a way to achieve this knowledge.

Social forecasting consists of several stages, therefore, specific tasks of cognition are solved at each stage. The stage of pre-forecast orientation is especially important for forecasting methodology, at which the concept of research, the conceptual apparatus is developed, the main methodological principles of analysis and forecasting, methods and techniques are determined, hypotheses are formed, which are to be tested in the course of the study.

1.2 Basic principles and criteria of social forecasting methodology

Under forecast refers to a scientifically based judgment about the possible states of an object in the future, about alternative ways and timing of its implementation. The process of developing forecasts is called forecasting .

object social forecasting can be all social systems, all phenomena occurring in society.

Subject social forecasting are people - individual scientific and practical workers and research organizations.

Subject is to improve the needs of society and meet its needs.

The basis for the formation of forecasts is static information and an information array - a system of scientifically determined parameters and factors that comprehensively characterize the object of forecasting.

There are the following forecast types:

1) By hierarchy of control:

a) forecasts for the development of individual enterprises and their associations

b) forecasts for the development of industries and clusters

c) forecasts for the development of municipalities

d) regional development forecasts

e) country development forecasts

f) forecasts for the development of international cooperation and international structures

g) global forecasts (worldwide)

2) By timing of events:

a) operational (7 days-1 year)

b) short-term (1–3 years)

c) medium-term (4–10 years)

d) long-term (10–20 years)

e) long-term (20–50 years)

f) ultra-long-term (50 years or more)

3) By object and horizon:

a) quantitatively specific (clearly calculated solution options with a set of development indicators)

b) quality

4) By the method of providing forecast information:

a) point (in the form of a single value)

b) interval (a set of values ​​of the predicted value based on interval calculations)

5) Functionally:

a) search

b) normative

Currently, several methodological principles of social forecasting are distinguished, on the basis of which the analysis of the object of the forecast is carried out and the forecast itself is developed.

A principle is a basis from which one must proceed and by which one must be guided in action.

1) The principle of consistency in forecasting. The main concept in this case is the "system" - a whole made up of parts; connection, or a set of elements with relationships and connections between them, forming a certain integrity. It should be borne in mind that the essence of the concept of a system is closely related to such categories as: integrity, structure, connection element, relation subsystem, etc.

A characteristic feature of the system is the feature of the set of elements that form the system to resist the environment. And, in addition, the functioning of the system is based on a certain orderliness of its elements, relationships and connections.

The social system is understood as a complex, ordered whole, including individuals and social communities, united by various connections and relationships that are specifically social in nature.

2) The principle of historicism in social foresight focuses on the study of specific patterns, conditions for their development and requires reinforcement of foresight global changes systematic forecasting of more particular social processes.

In this sense, the forecast refines our understanding of the general development trend, reveals the specific features and characteristics of the future development of phenomena, localizes them in spatio-temporal boundaries, i.e. represents a predictive model for the development of a given phenomenon or process. This takes into account possible changes forecast fund, i.e. conditions in the future.

3) Using the principle of social determination and development forecasting takes into account the diverse relationships and dependencies in public life(as part of a systematic approach). It is known that the phenomena of material and spiritual world are in an objective regular relationship and interdependence (determinism). And an important provision of this conditionality is causality, i.e. such a connection of phenomena in which one phenomenon (cause) under well-defined conditions necessarily generates, produces another phenomenon (effect). Scenario modeling, scenario thinking is based on this position.

4) Consistency principle implies the harmonization of normative and exploratory approaches and, accordingly, forecasts; forecasts possible development various spheres - economic, environmental, demographic and others, various lead times in the forecast - short-, medium-, long-term, beyond long-term.

5) Principle of verifiability forecasting indicates a mandatory procedure for checking the developed forecasts for accuracy, reliability, reliability, and their validity. For this purpose, there is a whole group of methods, which will be discussed below.

6)The principle of profitability forecasting is closely related to reliability, for only a reliable forecast can be cost-effective. This means that the costs of developing a forecast, and this is a very expensive study, should pay off and not only bring profit, income to the customer when using it, or a positive effect in any other case.

7)Continuity principle forecasting (especially in crisis conditions) requires adjustment of forecasts as new data about the object of forecasting become available. And this is possible with the functioning of permanent forecasting systems in research centers in order to monitor the situation and, accordingly, refine the forecast. Only in this case, you can count on a reliable forecast.

2.1 System of indicators of social forecasting

The system of indicators of social forecasting is usually divided into 2 categories:

1) Qualitative and quantitative

2) Single and group.

Absolute indicators are expressed in absolute value, for example, in pieces (pieces). Relative - in shares, i.e. in percents (%). Natural are expressed in physical terms, for example, milk yield of cows. value have a monetary form of expression. Comparative ones are based on the method of comparison, and contextual ones are based on choice.

Structural indicators are based on data between the components of the social sphere. Global indicators involve consideration of the social system as a whole, i.e. on a global scale.

2.2 Classification and characteristics of social forecasting methods

Social forecasting as a study with a wide scope of objects of analysis is based on many methods. When classifying forecasting methods, their main features are distinguished.

Methods of social forecasting- a set of techniques and ways of thinking that, based on the analysis of retrospective data, exogenous (external) and endogenous (internal) connections of the object of forecasting, as well as their measurements within the framework of the phenomenon or process under consideration, derive judgments of a certain reliability regarding its (object) future development.

There are a lot of social forecasting methods and therefore they distinguish 2 main groups of methods .

1) Simple Methods

Factographic forecasting methods are based on the actual information material used in search forecasting and include:

1) statistical methods

extrapolation method

Comes from processing quantitative characteristics object obtained in the past and present with the relative stability of the system. The main one is the analysis of time series.

analogy method, etc.

Mathematical analogies include economic models and interobject analogs. They are most often used as the simplest models of economic forecasting. Historical analogies are connected with advance (industry or regional).

2) methods of analysis of publications

Dynamics

Construction of time series based on various kinds information,
analysis and forecasting on this basis of the development of the corresponding
object.

Publication

The publication forecasting method is based on evaluating the content and dynamics of publications in relation to the object of study.

Patenting

It provides for the assessment of fundamentally new inventions according to the accepted criteria system and the study of the dynamics of their patenting.

Expert forecasting methods are based on the knowledge of specialist experts about the object of forecasting and the generalization of their opinions on the development of the object in the future.

Methodology expert work includes a number of steps:

- the circle of experts is determined;

- problems are identified;

- a plan and time of action is outlined;

– criteria for expert assessments are being developed;

- the forms and methods in which the results of the examination will be expressed are indicated

In normative forecasting, individual and collective forecasting methods are used.

Individual methods include :

Interview (There is direct contact between the expert and the specialist according to the “question-answer” scheme)

Analytical expert assessments, etc.

They represent a deep and comprehensive analysis of possible scenarios for the development of the process under study. In this case, the expert can involve additional documentary materials and think over his answers for a sufficiently long time.

Collective methods include:

Script building

A scenario is a description (a hypothetical picture) of the future, based on the most plausible assumptions. Scenarios are developed to define the framework for future development. The forecast includes several scenarios (“tube of scenarios”). In most cases, these are three scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic and medium - realistic (most likely.

- goal tree

« Goal Tree” is a structured, hierarchically structured (ranked by levels) set of system, program, plan goals. It is built by successive selection of smaller and smaller components at lower levels and is a set of the general goal, main goal and subgoals.

Morphological analysis, etc.

Allows you to create new information about the object as a result of systematization of data on all possible solutions to the problem under study.

2) Complex methods

These include:

1) Predictive graph method

A graph is a figure consisting of points, called vertices, and segments connecting them, called edges. The choice of graph structure is determined by the essence of those relations between the elements of the system that it must express.

The method is based on expert and formal mathematical procedures for constructing and analyzing a graph that reflects a generalized judgment of a wide range of specialists about the needs, possible ways and resources needed to achieve the goal.

At each level, a group of experts formulates event-goals and conditions for their achievement.

The advantage of the method is the ability to work with the graph in the dialogue mode "person - Information system” to test some situations, that is, the ability to play different situations.

Count is dynamic system, and upon admission from experts new information estimates, forecast options and decisions made are reviewed.

2) Pattern system method

Used in planning development under conditions of uncertainty. The method is based on dividing a complex problem into smaller problems until each sub-problem can be comprehensively (according to different criteria) and reliably quantified by experts.

This method is used mainly to predict how the formulated goals and objectives will be achieved by those who manage the situation.

Method structure:

choice of forecast object

identification of current internal and external patterns

analysis of the hierarchy of regularities indicating the coefficient of relative importance of each level within the unit and the sum of the levels of the hierarchy equal to one

formulation of the general goal of the forecast and tasks to achieve it

preparation of a scenario (for example, development)

development of resource allocation algorithm

assessment of distribution results

The forecasting process is carried out using the system analysis methodology. Most importantly, it allows you to abandon financially unsecured and secondary topics.

3) Simulation method

1) constructing a model based on a preliminary study of the object;

2) highlighting the essential characteristics of the object;

3) experimental and theoretical analysis of the model;

4) comparison of simulation results with the actual data of the object;

5) correction or refinement of the model.

Economic and mathematical modeling is based on the principle of analogy, that is, the possibility of studying an object through the consideration of another object similar to it and more accessible. Such a more accessible object is the economic-mathematical model. It is a system of formalized equations that describe the main relationships of the elements that form economic system or any economic process.

This model makes it possible to bring the process of obtaining and processing initial information to a complete and exhaustive description, as well as to solve the problems under consideration in a fairly wide class of specific cases.

4) Foresight method

Foresight (English - vision of the future) - the process of systematic attempts to look into the distant future in order to identify areas of strategic research and technology that are likely to bring the greatest economic and social benefits; a complex mechanism that achieves results through a combination of a system of methods.

This method includes planning, control over the implementation of the plan drawn up taking into account the method. Combines forecast and plan functions. In addition to experts, practitioners and managers are involved. Those. experience is used, which is not always a source of innovation. This is the most used method in the world.

Forecasting methods can be further divided into two additional groups (Fig. 1):

1) intuitive methods (based on the predominance of intuition, that is, subjective principles)

2) formalized methods

Intuitive Methods predictions are used in cases where it is impossible to take into account the influence of many factors due to the insignificant complexity of the forecasting object. This method includes a base of expert opinions, on the basis of whose creative thinking it is possible to build a reliable picture of the future with subsequent formal processing of the obtained forecasting results.

The main central stage of intuitive forecasting is conducting surveys of experts on the following methods:

Individual and collective

personal and correspondence

oral and written

open and anonymous

The intuitive prediction method has the following structure:

1) formation of expert teams and assessment of the competence of experts

2) synthesis graph of the modeled object of study

3) formation of questions and development of tables of expert assessments

4) analysis of the work of experts

5) algorithm for processing tables of expert assessments

6) method of variation of the received forecasts and synthesis of predictive models.

There are individual and collective expert assessments.

Part individual expert assessments includes:

1) Interview method

There is direct contact between the expert and the specialist according to the "question-answer" scheme.

2) Analytical method

A logical analysis of any predictable situation is carried out, analytical reports are compiled. Includes system analysis (integrity and unity of its elements), index analysis (ratio of performance indicators to factor indicators and the ratio of homogeneous products to each other in different periods time) and synthesis.

3) Script writing method

Based on the definition of the logic of the development of a process or phenomenon in time under various conditions. The main purpose of the scenario is to determine the general goal of the development of the predicted object, phenomenon and formulate criteria for evaluating the upper levels of the “goal tree”. A scenario is a picture that reflects a consistent detailed solution of a problem, the identification of possible obstacles, the detection of serious shortcomings in order to resolve the issue of a possible termination of the work begun or the completion of ongoing work on the predicted object.

Methods collective expert assessments include:

1) Method of "Commissions"

A group of experts meets repeatedly to discuss the same issue. The method of "Commissions" provides for an examination in the form of a free exchange of views to obtain a common opinion of experts. Face-to-face communication of experts significantly reduces the time of examination, facilitates obtaining a single agreed opinion. When using the method of commissions, a discussion program is preliminarily developed. The group of experts is selected by "volitional way" - the method of appointment. Usually it is 10-12 people.

2) "Brainstorm" ("Brainstorm")

The essence of the brainstorming method is to actualize the potential of specialists in the analysis of a problem situation, which first implements the generation of ideas and the subsequent destruction of these ideas. The facilitator reveals the content of the problematic note and the “assault” lasts 20–60 minutes.

3) Delphi Method

It is built on the principle of generalizing the opinions of individual experts into an agreed group opinion and involves a complete rejection of collective discussions.

4) Matrix method

A forecasting method based on the use of matrices that reflect the values ​​(weights) of the graph-model vertices of the forecasting object, followed by the transformation of the matrices and operating with them. The matrix model is a rectangular table, the elements of which reflect the relationship of objects.

Rice. 1. Classification of forecasting methods according to formalization

Formalized forecasting includes:

1. Predictive extrapolation method

It proceeds from the processing of the quantitative characteristics of the object obtained in the past and present with the relative stability of the system. This method can be used in forecasting for a period of 5–7 years, since the error accumulates over time.

These methods include:

1) Least squares

It consists in finding the parameters of the trend model that minimize its deviation from the points of the original time series. An important point obtaining a forecast using this method is to assess the reliability of the result.

2) Exponential smoothing

It is a very effective and reliable forecasting method. The main advantages of the method are the ability to take into account the weights of the initial information, the simplicity of computational operations, and the flexibility of describing various process dynamics. This method makes it possible to obtain an estimate of the trend parameters that characterize average level process, but the trend prevailing at the time of observation. The method has found the greatest application as a method for the implementation of medium-term forecasts.

3) Moving averages

Moving average extrapolation involves calculating the average of data groups over a certain time interval. Moreover, each subsequent data group is formed by a shift of 1 year or a month. As a result, the initial fluctuation of the time series smoothing. The essence of the method lies in the fact that the predicted indicator in terms of its value will be equal to the average calculated for the last time interval.

2. Modeling methods

Modeling – this is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their counterparts - material or mental.

Modeling happens:

Structural (represents the development of many methods of multivariate analysis, namely multiple linear regression, analysis of variance, factor analysis)

Network (allows you to implement systems approach, apply mathematical methods and modern VT in the study of complex processes, to increase the efficiency of planning and managing such processes), etc.

Modeling methods are the most complex forecasting method, consisting of a variety of approaches to predicting complex systems, processes and phenomena. These methods can also intersect with expert methods.

3. Main directions for improving the methodology of social forecasting

3.1 Problems of development and directions for improving the methodology of social forecasting

The main task of forecasting is the development of a forecasting methodology in order to increase the efficiency of methods and techniques for developing forecasts. The problems of forecasting include the study of the features of forecasting as a form of concretization of scientific foresight and as a specific type of scientific research, the principles of optimal selection and combination of forecasting methods, methods for checking and evaluating the reliability of forecasts, the principles of using the findings of cybernetics, probability theory, game theory, and operations research to develop forecasts. , decision theory, etc.

For forecasting to be most effective, goals must be specific and measurable. That is, for each goal, there must be criteria that would allow assessing the degree of achievement of the goal. Without these criteria, it is impossible to implement one of the main management-control functions.

Forecasting methodology plays an important role in forecasting. Among the methods most often used in forecasting social development and the standard of living of the population, the following can be distinguished: the method of expert assessments; normative method; extrapolation method; method of economic and mathematical modeling; exponential smoothing, etc.

The methodology of forecasting the social development of regions is especially important. In recent years, at the level of regions (republics, territories, regions), work has been and is being carried out to compile short-term and medium-term forecasts of economic and social development.

The methodological prerequisites for such forecasting is that the region is an integral subsystem of the general system of social production, performing a certain national economic function through the production of a certain number of products or services that are the subject of its specialization.

The forecast development process includes three blocks: analytical, conceptual and predictive.

When developing the concept of regional social development, 2 main stages can be distinguished:

1. formation of goals and their concretization in the form of specific tasks aimed at solving relevant problems;

2. prioritization of the goals and objectives of economic and social development and the development of a regional development strategy on this basis.

The main task within the forecast block is to determine the quantitative parameters and indicators of the regional development of the social system in the future. In this case, three types of forecasts are used: general economic forecasts for the development of the system as a whole; development forecasts individual industries; forecasts for the development of individual administrative-territorial units of the region (cities, districts, etc.).

The main method for developing these forecasts is the compilation of a prospective development scenario. These scenarios describe probable situations for the future development of the regional social system and its structures, its relationship with other systems, determine the optimal indicators of regional development based on various factors and conditions.

The scenario method involves the establishment of indicators of future development critically important indicators external environment. For example, for the development of the social sphere, it is necessary to include several options for alternative indicators of the future. Regional authorities arrange so that the population of the region increased over the year by at least 1.5% or 3%. If in the process of constructing a scenario, it is revealed that the environmental situation in the region will worsen, the situation will worsen, then for a more accurate and reliable forecast, it is necessary to adjust the number (3%) downward, for example, reduce it to 2%.

3.2 Predictive calculations of social development indicators

The most important socio-economic category that determines the well-being of the people is the standard of living. The standard of living is the degree to which the population is provided with material and spiritual benefits based on the existing needs and the level of economic development of the country.

According to the UN recommendation, the standard of living is measured by a system of indicators characterizing health, consumption, employment, education, housing, social security. In recent years, world practice has used the Human Development Index (HDI) to assess the level and quality of life. It includes: GDP per capita, life expectancy, average number of years of education of the population. Let's give an example of HDI calculation.

1) life expectancy of at least 25 years; maximum 85 years; RF 67.6 years.

2) real GDP per capita ($) at least $100; maximum $5448; in the Russian Federation 5184 $.

1. Calculate the life expectancy index (LE)

Iopzh \u003d (Xsr - Xmin) / (Xmax - X min)

where Xav is the average life expectancy,

X min - the average minimum life expectancy,

Xmax is the average maximum life expectancy.

The last two indicators in the calculations take 25 and 85 years, respectively.

Iexp \u003d (67.6 - 25) / (85 - 25) \u003d 0.71 or 71 years

2. Find the GDP index:

Ivdp \u003d (5184 - 100) / (5448 - 100) \u003d 0.95

3. Calculate the HDI index:

I rchp \u003d (Iopzh + Ivvp + Iobr) / 3

where Iobr is the education index of the population

I rchp \u003d (0.71 + 0.95 + 0.888) / 3 \u003d 0.85

Answer: The HDI index is 0.85

The main task of forecasting in the field of social development is, first of all, to determine the needs of the population for the long term and the possibilities of meeting them in food, industrial goods, household services, housing, education, health services, culture, and art.

In the very general view the sequence of making forecasts of social development and the standard of living of the population can be represented as follows.

1. The hypothesis of the formation of an increase in the standard of living is determined in general terms by three components: GDP growth, the growth of social needs, and the growth of resources for future consumption.

The forecast of the growth rates of resources for consumption is based on forecasted calculations of economic growth, increase in production efficiency, increase in investment, etc.

2. The analysis of the achieved standard of living includes a set of indicators that provide mutual linkage and a logical sequence in the development of forecasts.

The main ones among these indicators are the following:

1. socio-demographic indicators

2. working conditions

3. generalizing cost indicators of nominal and real incomes of the population

4. the state of health and its changes in the population as a whole and individual social groups;

5. indicators of consumption by the population of basic foodstuffs and non-food products;

6. General indicators of the service sector (expenditures of the population to pay for services, price index (tariffs) for certain types paid services population;

7. housing conditions and public services (average provision of the population with housing, provision with basic types of public services, etc.);

8. indicators of education (the level of education of the population, the number of students in schools, the number of students in universities and secondary specialized educational institutions, including per 10 thousand people, etc.);

9. indicators of culture (number of libraries, theaters, museums, clubs, their attendance, circulation of books, magazines, newspapers);

10. state of the environment;

11. savings of the population.

The system of forecasts of social development and standard of living follows from the set of indicators discussed above. This means that the change in each indicator must be predicted in order to obtain a sufficiently complete and objective picture of the dynamics of social development and living standards in the forecast period. For example, forecasts of the dynamics of real incomes of the population, changes in the retail price index, development of housing construction, etc. are being developed.

The most important generalizing indicator of the standard of living is the income of the population. The main components of the monetary income of the population are wages, income from entrepreneurial activity and property (profit, dividends, interest, rent), social payments (pensions, allowances, scholarships, etc.).

An important role in predicting the standard of living of the population is played by: the subsistence minimum budget; minimum consumer budget; high income budget.

The subsistence minimum budget has been used in the Russian Federation since 1992. It represents the valuation of the consumer basket, as well as mandatory payments and fees. Consumer basket- This is the minimum set of food, non-food products and services necessary to maintain human health and ensure its vital activity.

The minimum consumer budget is the social minimum of funds necessary to ensure the normal functioning of a person.

The most important indicator of the standard of living is the purchasing power of the population. It shows how many conditional sets of the subsistence minimum can be purchased by the population with their average monetary income.

Taking into account the size of consumer budgets in the Russian Federation, the entire population in terms of income and consumption can be divided into the following groups.

First group- the poor strata of the population, whose monthly per capita income is below the cost estimate of the subsistence minimum budget. The living wage in Russia today averages 5187 rubles.

Second group- low-income strata of the population, whose monthly per capita income is in the interval between the cost estimate of the subsistence minimum budget and the cost estimate of the minimum consumer budget.

Third group- medium or relatively wealthy segments of the population, whose monthly per capita income is in the interval between the cost estimate of the minimum consumer budget and the cost estimate of the budget of high prosperity.

Fourth group Wealthy and wealthy people whose monthly per capita income exceeds the budget of high prosperity.

Forecast estimates of improving the living standards of the population of the Russian Federation, as a rule, are linked to the achievement of macroeconomic stabilization and sustainable economic growth.

Conclusion

Forecasting is one of the most important stages of project activity. Mankind, having forecasts, consciously seeks and finds ways to the exit. First - hunting and gathering, then - the transition to agriculture and pastoralism, from nomadic to settled way life, from villages to urban areas; development of the resources of the World Ocean, etc. Forecasting in a broad sense is a prediction, in general, of any information received about the future. In a narrow sense - a special scientific study, the subject of which are the prospects for the development of phenomena.

One of the most important types of forecasting is social forecasting - this is the prediction of trends and prospects for the possible development of social systems, objects, social phenomena, processes. The object of social forecasting can be all social systems, all phenomena occurring in society.

Forecasting is integral part development process social project. In isolation from design, forecasting loses its practical meaning. Social forecasting makes it possible to take into account various options for the movement and development of social systems. The development of correct forecasts makes it possible to make management more perfect, and design more efficient.

Methods of social forecasting are a set of techniques and ways of thinking that allow, based on the analysis of retrospective data, exogenous (external) and endogenous (internal) connections of the object of forecasting, as well as their measurements within the framework of the phenomenon or process under consideration, to derive judgments of a certain reliability regarding it (the object) future development.

Intuitive forecasting methods are used in cases where it is impossible to take into account the influence of many factors due to the insignificant complexity of the forecasting object. In this case, expert estimates are used. At the same time, individual and collective expert assessments are distinguished.

The group of formalized methods includes subgroups: extrapolation and modeling. The first subgroup includes methods: least squares, exponential smoothing, moving averages. To the second - structural, network and matrix modeling.

List of used literature

1.Arzhenovsky S.V. Methods of socio-economic forecasting: Tutorial. - M .: Publishing house "Dashkov and Co"; Rostov n/a, 2008

2.Safronova V.M. Forecasting and modeling in social work: Proc. allowance for students. higher textbook establishments. - M .: Publishing Center "Academy", 2002

3. Bestuzhev-Lada I.V. Social forecasting. Lecture course. - M .: Pedagogical Society of Russia 2002

4.Safronova V.M. Forecasting and modeling in social work: Proc. allowance for students. higher textbook establishments. - M .: Publishing Center "Academy", 2002

Methods of social forecasting.

Types of social forecasts

Methods of social forecasting

The concept and types of social forecasting

Topic 2. Sociological monitoring of security

social forecasting is a special study on the likely prospects for the development of a social facility. Moreover, the object can be a social phenomenon, a process, and a social stratum, and the social state of the individual.

The purpose of social forecasting is the preparation of scientifically based proposals on the directions in which the development of a social object is desirable. In the course of scientific forecasting, two main tasks are solved:

The goal of the probable development of the object is determined and motivated;

The means and ways of achieving this goal are determined.

Types of social forecasting: socio-economic, legal, socio-political, socio-culturological, sociological, etc.

Social Prediction Functions:

1. orientation involves optimizing the choice of socially significant goals and means of achieving them

2. normative means identifying the most important trends in social development,

3. precautionary involves the definition and description of possible negative consequences in probable development trends.

General scientific: analysis, synthesis, extrapolation - extension of conclusions regarding one part of a phenomenon to another part, to the phenomenon as a whole for the future, interpolation - restoring the value of a function at an intermediate point from its known values ​​\u200b\u200bat neighboring points, induction, deduction, analogies, hypotheses, experimentation and modeling - the transfer of research activities to another object, acting as a substitute for the object under study.

interscientific, focused on the collective opinion, the opinion of the majority of experts :

1. brainstorming method is a collective expert assessment of the predicted event. It involves a joint discussion of the problem by specialists from different research areas, scientific schools and focused on convergence of expert positions.

2. method "Delphi" distinguishes the anonymity of the work of experts and the written form of assessments.

To private scientific methods social forecasting usually include a survey of experts, testing, etc.

I. Forecasts differ based on the target criterion:

1. Search forecast, the content of which is to determine the possible states of the forecasting object in the future. Such a forecast answers the question: what is most likely to happen if the existing trends continue?

2. Normative forecast, the content of which is to determine the ways and conditions for achieving possible states (taken as given) of the object of forecasting in the future. This forecast answers the question: what are the ways to achieve the desired result?

3. Comprehensive forecast, containing elements of search and normative forecasts.

II. By lead time There are the following types of forecasts:

Operational forecast with a lead time of up to 1 month;

Short-term forecast with a lead period of 1 month to 1 year;

Medium-term forecast with a lead time of 1 to 5 years;

Long-term forecast with a lead time of 5 to 15 years;

Long-range forecast with a lead time of more than 15 years.

III. By scale of forecasting allocate:

World Forecasts;

State forecasts;

Structural (intersectoral and interregional) forecasts;

Forecasts for the development of individual complexes of industry, economy, culture;

Industry forecasts;

Regional forecasts;

IV. By object of study differ:

-natural science predictions(meteorological, hydrological, geological, biological, cosmological

-scientific and technical forecasts, which cover the prospects for the development of scientific and technological progress;

-social predictions, which cover various areas activities of people and relationships between them.

social forecasting– an interdisciplinary complex of studies related to the identification of development options social processes and selection of the most appropriate ones capable of ensuring their implementation.

Types of social forecasts

Prediction method: predictive extrapolation method of expert assessments, " brain attack”, Delphi method, etc.

social forecasting- foresight, trends and prospects for the possible development of the social system, the forecast is general and abstract:

Predictive extrapolation method;

Method of expert assessments;

Collective expertise, brain stage;

Simulation method;

Method of mathematical modeling.

Word " forecasting " comes from a Greek word meaning foresight or divination. However, social forecasting is not one of the types of foresight, but the next stage, which is associated with process management.

AT himself general sense forecasting means development of a forecast in the form of formulating a probabilistic judgment about the state of a phenomenon in the future.

In a narrow sense forecasting means a special scientific study of the prospects for the development of a phenomenon, mainly with quantitative estimates and indicating more or less certain periods of change in this phenomenon.

The forecast does not provide solutions to the problems of the future. Its task is to contribute to the scientific substantiation of development plans and programs. Forecasting characterizes a possible set of necessary ways and means of implementing the planned program of action.

Under the forecast should be borne in mind a probabilistic statement about the future with a relatively high degree of certainty. Its difference from foresight lies in the fact that the latter is interpreted as an improbable statement about the future, based on absolute certainty, or (another approach) is a logically constructed model of a possible future with an as yet undetermined level of certainty. It is easy to see that the degree of reliability of statements about the future is used as the basis for the distinction between terms. At the same time, it is obvious that forecasting proceeds from the ambiguity of development.

The forecast has a specific character and is necessarily associated with certain quantitative estimates. In accordance with this, the author refers the expected number of crimes in the next calendar year to the category of forecasts, and the early release of a prisoner under certain conditions - to the category of predictions.

It can be concluded that a prediction is a qualitative assessment of the future, and a forecast is a quantitative assessment of the future.

social forecasting- identification of development options and selection of the most acceptable, optimal based on resources, time and social forces capable of ensuring their implementation. Social forecasting is the work with alternatives, a deep analysis of the degree of probability and the multivariance of possible solutions.

At the same time, it is necessary to note the distinctive, specific features of social forecasting. They can be identified as follows.

Firstly, the formulation of the goal here is relatively general and abstract: it allows for a high degree of probability. The purpose of forecasting is based on the analysis of the state and behavior of the system in the past and the study of possible trends in the change of factors affecting the system under consideration, to correctly determine the probabilistic quantitative and qualitative parameters of its development in the future, to reveal the options for the situation in which the system will find itself.

Secondly, social forecasting does not have a directive character.

In conclusion, we can say that the qualitative difference between a variant forecast and a specific plan is that the forecast provides information to justify the decision and choose planning methods. It indicates the possibility of one or another development path in the future, and the plan expresses the decision on which of the possibilities the society will implement.

There is a noticeable difference between forecasting within the natural and technical sciences, on the one hand, and within the social sciences, on the other. The weather forecast, for example, can be set with a high degree of probability. But at the same time, it cannot be canceled by a managerial decision. Within small limits, a person can consciously change the state of the weather (for example, it is possible to clear the sky from clouds in connection with a major public holiday or stimulate avalanches in the mountains), but these are very rare cases of counteraction to the forecast. Basically, a person has to adapt his actions to the weather (take an umbrella if rain is expected; put on warm clothes if it is cold, etc.).

The specificity of social forecasting is that foresight social phenomena and processes and their management are closely related. Having predicted an undesirable social process, we can stop it or modify it in such a way that it does not show its negative qualities. Having predicted a positive process, we can actively contribute to its development, contribute to its expansion in the territory of action, coverage of people, duration of manifestation, etc.

Social innovation has specific features in a number of other innovations: if in the scientific, technical, economic spheres the meaning of innovation is to achieve greater efficiency, then in social sphere Establishing effectiveness is problematic. How is this defined?

1. In the social sphere, the improvement of the position of some people can create tension (sometimes only psychological) for others. Social innovation is evaluated through the prism of the value-normative system.

2. The successful solution of some social problems may give rise to other problems or turn out to be a success not in the sense in which the task was understood.

Exist three main specific forecasting method: extrapolation, modeling, expertise.

The classification of forecasting into extrapolation, modeling and expertise is rather conditional, since predictive models involve extrapolation and expert assessments, the latter are the results of extrapolation and modeling, etc. In the development of forecasts, methods of analogy, deduction, induction, various statistical methods, economic , sociological, etc.

extrapolation method.

This method was one of the historically first methods that became widely used in social forecasting. Extrapolation - this is the extension of the conclusions made in the study of one part of a phenomenon (process) to another part, including the unobservable. In the social field, it is a way of predicting future events and states, based on the assumption that some trends that have manifested themselves in the past and in the present will continue.

Extrapolation example: a series of numbers 1, 4, 9, 16 suggests that the next number will be 25, since the beginning of the series is the squares of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4. We extrapolated the found principle to the unwritten part of the series.

Extrapolation is widely used in demography when calculating the future size of the population, its sex and age and family structures, etc. Using this method, the future rejuvenation or aging of the population can be calculated, the characteristics of fertility, mortality, marriage rates are given in periods that are several years away from the present. decades.

By using computer programs(Exel, etc.) you can post-
dig extrapolation in the form of a graph in accordance with the available formulas.

However, in social forecasting, the possibilities of extrapolation as a forecasting method are somewhat limited. This is due to a number of reasons that are related to the fact that social processes develop over time. This limits the possibilities of their accurate modeling. So, up to a certain point, the process can slowly increase, and then a period of rapid development begins, which ends with a saturation stage. After that, the process stabilizes again. If such features of the course of social processes are not taken into account, then the application of the extrapolation method can lead to an error.

2. Modeling.Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their analogues (models) - real or mental.

An analogue of an object can be, for example, its layout (reduced, proportionate or enlarged), drawing, diagram, etc. In the social sphere, mental models are more often used. Working with models allows you to transfer experimentation from a real social object to its mentally constructed duplicate and avoid the risk of an unsuccessful, all the more dangerous for people, management decision. main feature mental model and lies in the fact that it can be subjected to any kind of tests, which practically consist in changing the parameters of itself and the environment in which it (as an analogue of a real object) exists. This is the great advantage of the model. It can also act as a model, a kind of ideal type, an approximation to which may be desirable for the creators of the project.

In social design, it is more accurate to say that a model created on the basis of a plan and preliminary information makes it possible to identify, clarify and limit the goals of the project being developed.

At the same time, the disadvantage of the model is its simplification. Certain properties and characteristics of a real object in it are coarsened or not taken into account at all as insignificant. If this were not done, the work with the model would be extremely complicated, and the model itself would not contain dense, compact information about the object. And yet there are potential errors in the application of modeling to social engineering and forecasting.

"rooted with school years the notion that a model can only be mathematical is profoundly mistaken. The model can also be formulated in natural language.”

This circumstance is important to take into account in social design. Modeling techniques can facilitate design tasks and make the project visible. Many, while talking, hold a sheet of paper in front of them and, in the course of presenting their point of view, fix the main points, indicate the links between them with arrows and other signs, etc. This is one of the common forms visualization, widely used in modeling. Visualization is able to more clearly reveal the essence of the problem and clearly indicate in which directions it can be solved and where to expect success and where failure.

The value of non-mathematical modeling for social design is very high. The model allows not only to develop an effective managerial decision, but to simulate conflict situations that are likely when making a decision, and ways to reach agreement.

In fact, any kind of business games are simulations.

The analysis and modeling of social systems has recently been developed into an autonomous sociological discipline with original mathematical software.

3. Expertise. Expertise is a special method of forecasting. In social design, it is used not only to solve the problems of predictive justification, but also wherever you have to deal with issues with low level the certainty of the parameters to be studied.

Expertise in the context of artificial intelligence research is interpreted as resolution of hard-to-formalizable(or poorly formalized) tasks. Arose in connection with the problems of programming, this understanding of expertise has acquired a system-wide character. It is the difficulty of formalizing a certain task that makes other methods of its study ineffective, except for expertise. As a way to describe the problem by formal means is found, the role of accurate measurements and calculations increases and, on the contrary, the efficiency of using expert assessments decreases.

INTRODUCTION

When developing forecasts, specialists often encounter difficulties associated with the lack of certainty in the terminology of this relatively new area of ​​scientific research.

The future is sought to be foreseen, predicted, anticipated, foreseen, predicted, etc. But the future can also be planned, programmed, designed. In relation to the future, you can set goals and make decisions. Sometimes some of these concepts are used as synonyms, sometimes a different meaning is put into each of them. This situation greatly complicates the development of prognosis and gives rise to fruitless discussions on issues of terminology.

In 1975, the Committee for Scientific and Technical Terminology of the USSR Academy of Sciences prepared a draft terminology for the general concepts of forecasting, as well as the object and apparatus of forecasting. The draft was circulated for wide discussion in organizations involved in the problems of forecasting, finalized taking into account the comments and published in 1978 in the 92nd edition of the collections of terms recommended for use in scientific and technical literature, information, educational process, standards and documentation. In this section, an attempt is made to bring into a system some of the terms (some of them are beyond the scope of the specified dictionary), which denote the initial concepts of prognostication and without which it is difficult to perceive the subsequent presentation (the dictionary is given in the Appendix).

Foresight and forecasting. It seems necessary to introduce a general concept that unites all varieties of obtaining information about the future - foresight, which is divided into scientific and non-scientific (intuitive, everyday, religious, etc.). Scientific foresight is based on knowledge of the laws governing the development of nature, society, and thought; the intuitive is based on a person's premonitions, the ordinary is based on the so-called worldly experience, related analogies, signs, etc.; religious - on the belief in supernatural forces that predetermine the future. There are a lot of superstitions about this.

Sometimes the concept of foresight refers to information not only about the future, but also about the present, and even about the past. This happens when still unknown, unknown phenomena of the past and present are approached in order to obtain scientific knowledge about them as if they relate to the future. Examples include estimates of mineral deposits (presentist foresight), mental reconstruction of ancient sites using the tools of scientific foresight (reconstructive foresight), estimating hindsight from the present to the past or from less distant to more distant past (reverse foresight), estimating hindsight from past to present or from a more distant to a less distant past, in particular - for testing methods of foresight (simulation foresight).

Foresight affects two interrelated sets of forms of its concretization: relating to the category of foresight itself - predictive (descriptive, or descriptive) and associated with it, relating to the category of management - pre-indicative (prescriptive, or prescriptive). Prediction implies a description of possible or desirable prospects, states, solutions to the problems of the future. Prediction is connected with the actual solution of these problems, with the use of information about the future for the purposeful activity of the individual and society. Prediction results in the forms of premonition, anticipation, foresight, forecasting. Premonition (simple anticipation) contains information about the future at the level of intuition - the subconscious. Sometimes this concept is extended to the entire area of ​​the simplest advanced reflection as a property of any organism. Foresight (complex anticipation) carries information about the future based on life experience, more or less correct guesses about the future, not based on special scientific research. Sometimes this concept is extended to the entire area of ​​complex advanced reflection, which is a property of the highest form of the movement of matter - thinking. Finally, forecasting (which is often used in the previous meanings) should mean, with this approach, a special scientific study, the subject of which is the prospects for the development of a phenomenon.

Preindication appears in the forms of goal-setting, planning, programming, design, and current management decisions. Goal-setting is the establishment of an ideally expected result of an activity. Planning is a projection into the future of human activity in order to achieve a predetermined goal with certain means, the transformation of information about the future into directives for purposeful activity. Programming in this series of concepts means establishing the main provisions, which are then deployed in planning, or the sequence of specific measures for the implementation of plans. Design is the creation of specific images of the future, specific details of the developed programs. Management as a whole, as it were, integrates the four listed concepts, since each of them is based on the same element - a decision. But decisions in the field of management do not necessarily have a planned, program, project character. Many of them (the so-called organizational, as well as actually managerial) are, as it were, the last step in the concretization of management.

These terms can also be defined as the processes of developing forecasts, goals, plans, programs, projects, and organizational decisions. From this point of view, a forecast is defined as a probabilistic scientifically based judgment about the prospects, possible states of a particular phenomenon in the future and (or) about alternative ways and timing of their implementation. The goal is a decision regarding the intended result of the activity being undertaken. Plan - a decision on a system of measures that provides for the order, sequence, timing and means of their implementation. A program is a decision regarding a set of measures necessary for the implementation of scientific, technical, social, socio-economic and other problems or some of their aspects. The program can be a pre-plan decision, as well as specify a certain aspect of the plan. A project is a decision regarding a specific activity, structure, etc., necessary for the implementation of one or another aspect of the program. Finally, the actual decision in this series of concepts is an ideally assumed action to achieve the goal.

Religious foresight has its own forms of concretization. So, “prediction” takes the form of “revelation”, divination (prophecy), fortune-telling, and “foretelling” takes the form of “predestination”, sorcery, spells, requests for prayer, etc. But all this (as well as forms of concretization of intuitive and everyday foresight ) is a special topic.

It is important to emphasize that prediction and prediction are closely related. Without taking this connection into account, it is impossible to understand the essence of forecasting, its actual relationship with management. The volitional principle can prevail in pre-instruction, and then the corresponding goals, plans, programs, projects, decisions in general turn out to be voluntaristic, subjectivistic, arbitrary (with an increased risk of non-optimality, failure). In this regard, it is desirable to predominate in them an objective, research principle, so that they are scientifically sound, with an increased level of expected effectiveness of decisions made.

The most important methods of scientific substantiation of predictions - description (analysis), explanation (diagnosis) and prediction (forecast) - constitute the three main functions of each scientific discipline. The forecast is not only a tool for such justification. However, its practical significance is reduced precisely to the possibility of increasing the efficiency of decisions made with its help. It is only because of this that forecasting has taken on unprecedented proportions in recent decades and has begun to play an important role in management processes.

Forecasting is not limited to trying to predict the details of the future (although in some cases this is essential). The forecaster proceeds from the dialectical determination of the phenomena of the future, from the fact that necessity makes its way through chances, that a probabilistic approach is needed to the phenomena of the future, taking into account a wide range of possible options. Only with this approach, forecasting can be effectively used to select the most probable or most desirable, optimal option when justifying a goal, plan, program, project, or decision in general.

Forecasts should precede plans, contain an assessment of the progress, consequences of the implementation (or failure to implement) plans, cover everything that cannot be planned, resolved. They can cover, in principle, any period of time. Forecast and plan differ in the way they handle information about the future. A probabilistic description of what is possible or desirable is a prediction. A directive decision regarding measures to achieve the possible, desirable is a plan. Forecast and plan can be developed independently of each other. But in order for the plan to be effective, optimal, it must be preceded by a forecast, as continuous as possible, which allows scientifically substantiating this and subsequent plans.

TYPOLOGY OF FORECASTS

Typology of forecasts can be built according to various criteria depending on the goals, objectives, objects, subjects, problems, nature, lead time, methods, organization of forecasting, etc. The problem-target criterion is fundamental: what is the forecast for? Accordingly, two types of forecasts are distinguished: exploratory (they were previously called research, survey, trend, genetic, etc.) and normative (they were called program, target).

Search forecast- determination of possible states of the phenomenon in the future. This refers to the conditional continuation into the future of the trends in the development of the phenomenon under study in the past and present, abstracting from possible solutions, actions on the basis of which can radically change trends, cause in some cases the self-fulfillment or self-destruction of the forecast. This prediction answers the question: What is most likely to happen if current trends continue?

Normative forecast- definition of ways and terms of achievement of possible states of the phenomenon accepted as the purpose. This refers to predicting the achievement of desired states on the basis of predetermined norms, ideals, incentives, and goals. This prediction answers the question: what are the ways to achieve what you want?

The search forecast is built on a certain scale (field, spectrum) of possibilities, on which the degree of probability of the predicted phenomenon is then established. With normative forecasting, the same probability distribution occurs, but in the reverse order: from a given state to observed trends. Normative forecasting is in some respects very similar to normative planning, program or design development. But the latter imply a directive establishment of measures for the implementation of certain norms, while the former is a stochastic (probabilistic) description of possible, alternative ways to achieve these norms.

Normative forecasting not only does not exclude normative developments in the field of management, but is also their prerequisite, helping to develop recommendations for increasing the level of objectivity and, consequently, the effectiveness of decisions. This circumstance prompted to identify the specifics of forecasts serving, respectively, goal-setting, planning, programming, design, and directly the organization of management. As a result, according to the criterion of correlation with various forms of concretization of management, some experts distinguish a number of subtypes of forecasts (exploratory and normative).

Target Forecast actually desired states answers the question: what is desirable and why? In this case, on a certain scale (field, spectrum) the possibilities of a purely evaluative function are built, i.e. preference distribution functions: undesirable - less desirable - more desirable - most desirable - optimal (with a compromise on several criteria). Orientation - assistance in optimizing the goal-setting process.

Planned forecast(plan-forecast) of the progress (or non-fulfillment) of plans is essentially the development of search and regulatory forecast information for the selection of the most appropriate planning standards, tasks, directives with the identification of undesirable alternatives to be eliminated and with a thorough clarification of the direct and remote, indirect consequences of the adopted planned decisions. This prediction answers the question: how, in what direction should planning be oriented in order to more effectively achieve the set goals?

Program forecast possible ways, measures and conditions for achieving the expected desired state of the predicted phenomenon answers the question: What exactly is needed to achieve what you want? To answer this question, both search and normative predictive developments are important. The former identify the problems that need to be solved in order to implement the program, the latter determine the conditions for implementation. Program forecasting should formulate a hypothesis about the possible mutual influence of various factors, indicate the hypothetical timing and sequence of achieving intermediate goals on the way to the main one. Thus, as it were, the selection of possibilities for the development of the object of study, begun by planned forecasting, is completed.

Project forecast specific images of this or that phenomenon in the future, under the assumption of a number of conditions that are still missing, answers the question: how (specifically) is this possible, what might it look like? A combination of search and regulatory developments is also important here. Project forecasts (they are also called forecast projects, design forecasts, etc.) are designed to help select the best options for long-term design, on the basis of which real, current design should then be deployed.

Organizational forecast current decisions (in relation to the sphere of management) to achieve the intended desired state of the phenomenon, the goals set answers the question: in what direction should decisions be oriented in order to achieve the goal? Comparison of the results of search and regulatory developments should cover the entire range of organizational measures, thereby increasing the overall level of management.

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