Russian gas has become the most scandalous commodity in Europe. Export of gas from Russia

Approximately 60 percent of the gas consumed in the EU is imported by EU countries. The remaining 40 percent is mined, among others, in the UK, the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany. True, domestic gas reserves are rapidly declining. According to forecasts, the dependence of the European Union on imports of blue fuel will grow.

Among the countries exporting natural gas to the European Union, the "big three" dominates. These are Russia, Norway and Algeria, which supply blue fuel mainly through pipelines. According to Eurostat, in 2009 these three countries accounted for about 85 percent of the gas imported by the European Union. Other exporting countries include Nigeria, Libya, Egypt and Qatar, which recent times dramatically increased the supply of liquefied natural gas.

Russian gas

Russia's Gazprom has been the largest supplier of natural gas to the EU countries for many years. According to the concern itself, in 2010 it exported 138 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe. True, these statistics include Turkey and the Balkan countries that are not members of the EU. For comparison: in the same 2010, Norway supplied the EU countries with about 100 billion cubic meters of gas. Gazprom estimates its share in the European market at 23 percent.

Biggest Buyer Russian gas in the EU is Germany. In 2010, Gazprom supplied Germany with 35 billion cubic meters of gas. The top five European importers of Russian gas also include Italy (13.1 billion cubic meters), Poland (11.8 billion cubic meters), Great Britain (10.7 billion cubic meters) and France (8.9 billion cubic meters).

Gazprom supplies blue fuel to the EU via pipelines through the territory of Ukraine and Belarus. It is not yet clear whether Russia will have to cut supplies along these routes after the launch of the Nord Stream gas pipeline. Its design capacity is 55 billion cubic meters per year.

Contracts for pipeline gas are concluded for decades, and the price for it is calculated taking into account the cost of oil. This causes dissatisfaction among Gazprom's partners, including the German energy concerns E.on and RWE. The fact is that the price of pipeline gas now significantly exceeds the cost of gas on the spot market.

Importance of LNG

The fall in spot prices was the result of a change in the situation not only in the financial market, but also in the gas market. The main global consumer of blue fuel, the United States, has sharply increased its own production. Thanks to the boom in the shale gas market, the United States has become the world's largest producer, overtaking Russia. At the same time, a number of countries, in particular Qatar and Nigeria, increased their gas liquefaction capacities. As a result, the supply on the spot market increased dramatically, causing prices to fall.

The EU countries are striving to diversify their energy supplies. This plan includes not only the Nabucco gas pipeline construction project, but also an increase in imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from countries North Africa and the Middle East. In a number of EU countries, in particular, in Spain, France and the Netherlands, regasification stations have long been built. A large terminal for receiving LNG tankers is being built in the Polish port of Swinoujscie. Already in 2014, Poland intends to import up to five billion cubic meters of gas by sea, primarily from Qatar.

Editor : Tatyana Petrenko

The States intend to seriously increase their gas supplies to Europe and drive Russia out of the European market. To do this, LNG terminals are being massively built and gas production is increasing. However, Moscow already has another asymmetric response to Washington

On December 1, the third president of Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko, on the air of the 112 Ukraine TV channel, accused the European Union of "unconscious" lending to Russia.
“82% of the energy resources that Russia produces, it sells to the EU. And the EU, if you take energy balance, - only 30% is filled at the expense of Russia's resources, the rest - from Africa, from North Sea. 82% of the energy resource, oil and gas, which are produced in Russia, is sold in Europe,” Yushchenko voiced well-known truths. And did following output: The European Union, buying gas from the Russian Federation, without realizing it, becomes largest creditor Russian aggression in Ukraine.

Such a "collision" at the same time on Moscow and Brussels could be considered funny, if almost simultaneously official representative US State Department Heather Nauert did not say that the implementation of the Nord Stream 2 project would increase Europe's vulnerability to interruptions in Russian gas supplies and cause economic damage to Ukraine.

“We agree with many of our European partners that Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream can increase Russia's dominance in Europe's gas markets. This will reduce the opportunities for diversifying energy sources. This could pose risks in an already tense region Baltic Sea and this will further Russia's goal of undermining Ukraine - which is of particular concern to us - by ending Ukraine's role as a transit country for Russian gas exports to Europe," she said.

Nauert also said that the construction of Nord Stream 2 would concentrate about 75% of Russian gas imports to the EU through a single route, which allegedly could increase Europe's vulnerability to interruptions in Russian gas supplies.

If not Russia, then who?

According to Yuri Korolchuk, a member of the Supervisory Board of the Institute for Energy Strategies, the statement of the representative of the US State Department is nothing more than lobbying on state level.

“We are witnessing that there is a desire of the United States, both technical and political, to increase gas supplies to the domestic market and, through its liquefaction, redirect it to the European Union market, among other things. The reasons for this are not at all “the danger of Russian gas”, but a banal desire to make money. This is such lobbying at the state level. It was pressure from the US authorities that forced Poland, Lithuania and Spain to sign long-term contracts for LNG supplies, ”the expert said in a comment to the site.

Suddeutsche Zeitung: Fight for pipes

The US has made no secret of its ambitions to become the global hub for the natural gas trade.

“Natural gas prices at the Henry Hub, a natural gas pipeline hub in Louisiana, have long been a benchmark for US trade. Now they are helping to set prices from Mozambique to Japan… The US will become a stabilizing LNG supplier when it finishes building several new export terminals on the coast Gulf of Mexico, wrote The Wall Street Journal in August.

Issue price

On November 22, Alexander Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Gazprom, said in an interview that liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States costs in Europe about a third more expensive than pipeline gas supplied by the Russian company to the EU.

“Under current market conditions, the total cost of US LNG supplies to the European market for the winter of 2017/18 is in the range of $265-295 per 1,000 cubic meters. m, which is significantly higher than current prices and forwards at European hubs and Russian gas prices,” Medvedev said.

The estimates of the US Department of Energy are not too different from those of Gazprom: according to the department, in February, supplies of American LNG to Spain, Portugal and Turkey cost about $245 per thousand cubic meters. The price includes the cost of buying gas from the American Henry Hub, as well as all related costs - for liquefaction, loading, transportation and regasification at European LNG terminals, etc.

At the same time, according to Medvedev, for Gazprom's export contracts, “the average price for the nine months of this year is about $190 per 1,000 cubic meters. m. Approximately the same level we expect at the end of the year.

So, at the moment, the supply of American LNG from the terminal with subsequent resale in Europe is unprofitable for the gas buyer.

“According to the estimates of most experts, the markets of Asian countries and South America, where more than high level prices than in Europe. At the same time, experts expect that the European price will be insufficient to fully cover the cost of supplying North American LNG both in the short term and in the long term. long term”, Medvedev added.

However, despite such optimistic forecasts and objectively low gas prices in the EU, purchases of American LNG are already being made by the countries of the European Union.

Concentrated expression of the economy

Lithuania has become the undoubted leader among buyers of American liquefied natural gas. Although it began to buy blue fuel from the United States following Poland, Spain, Portugal and some other EU countries, it was Vilnius that was the first to decide on a real diversification of supplies - more than 50% of gas consumption falls on LNG.

Moreover, according to the European Commission, last year Lithuania bought LNG at the highest prices in the EU and paid more than $250 per thousand cubic meters for it. Pipeline gas for Lithuania at that time was cheaper than LNG by at least 50-60 euros per thousand cubic meters, Deputy Director of the National Energy Security Fund (NESF) Alexei Grivach said in a comment to EADaily.

Such strange purchases are easily explained by Lithuania's dependent position of the United States. They are very reminiscent of the situation with the supply of American coal to Ukraine, which Ukrainian political scientist Ruslan Bortnik called a political bribe from President Poroshenko to President Trump.

“Buying American coal is, of course, a political bribe to the American leadership. It is very important for Trump to show that international meetings end with economic profit, for example, the creation of new jobs, ”Bortnik noted in a comment to the site.

American bribes Poroshenko

Of course, not all EU states are on such a short leash with the United States, like Lithuania. The same Poland still buys three-quarters of its gas from Russia, and the rest of the blue fuel is received not only from the United States.

“The loading of LNG terminals in Europe is on average at the level of 30%. This convincingly shows that Europeans have little faith that “democratic American gas” is better than cheaper Russian gas. The price of LNG is a key issue for the US. So far, even the UK is focusing on the purchase of Russian gas, and they intend to use Nord Stream 2 in full, ”Yuri Korolchuk told ours. So, in a similar way, the States are unlikely to be able to greatly increase gas supplies to the EU, he believes.

“The United States can exert political pressure on individual players in the European gas market, however, for large-scale gas supplies to the European market, it is necessary that gas prices in the European Union rise significantly - by at least 30-40%. Only then, provided that prices in the domestic American market remain unchanged, mass profitable supplies of American LNG to the European Union are possible,” Dmitry Marunich, co-chairman of the Energy Strategies Fund, told the website.

He is also of the opinion that in the short term such a jump in prices is unlikely to be expected. Nevertheless, one gets the impression that the Americans are not postponing a serious attack on the European gas market for too long.

Gas blitzkrieg

As noted by LNG World News, Cheniere's first Sabine Pass LNG terminal in the United States, although not completed, only 4 out of six production lines have been launched, each with a capacity of about 4.5 million tons of LNG (more than 6.21 billion cubic meters of natural gas) in year - already actively ships liquefied gas.

“Last year, the US was able to supply up to 2 billion cubic meters of gas to the EU. First of all, it is Spain and Great Britain. At the same time, the US is now more focused on the markets of Japan and China. In total, the United States exported about 5 billion cubic meters of gas last year. So far, this is an attempt to wedge in and take a small piece of the liquefied gas market, ”Korolchuk stated.

According to him, by 2022 Sabine Pass will be able to operate at full capacity. By this time, according to the forecast of the International Energy Agency, the United States will come out on the second place in the world in terms of exports (LNG). Australia will keep the lead, and Qatar will have to move to third position.

At the same time, experts calculated that Australia will produce 117.8 billion cubic meters, the United States - 106.7 billion, Qatar - 104.9 billion. It is assumed that the export capabilities of the United States will grow by more than 90 billion cubic meters from the current 14 billion shale mining.

“By the end of the forecast period, the US will challenge Australia and Qatar for global LNG leadership,” the IEA said in the report.

Experts from the International Energy Agency note that the global LNG market by this time will reach only 460 billion cubic meters. Thus, there will be an excess capacity of 190 billion cubic meters, which, according to the IEA, will lead to a decrease in the cost of LNG and a decrease in investment in the industry.

However, oddly enough, in the United States, these forecasts do not frighten anyone. The Americans continue to build LNG terminals at an accelerated pace in addition to the already existing Sabine Pass.

“In total, more than a dozen such LNG terminals are being built in the United States. They will reach their design capacity no earlier than by 2030. Their total capacity has already been estimated at the level of 250 billion cubic meters of gas per year,” Yury Korolchuk said.

It should be noted that this is more than half of the European gas market, which currently stands at about 450 billion cubic meters per year. The question arises: why are terminals being built in the United States, which, according to experts, will be idle? Hard to believe that american businessmen throwing money away. What are they counting on?

When is the war?

Many experts point out that in the near future the current decline in domestic production will continue in the European gas market. This will apply to Norway, the Netherlands and the UK - those countries that provide their own gas needs, and Norway is also an exporter of this energy resource.

Russia remains. While its gas is cheaper and more profitable. Russian company after the fall in gas prices, it was able to occupy about a third of the European market, supplying approximately 160 billion cubic meters per year. However, the United States has the opportunity to radically change the situation. True, for this it is necessary to raise oil prices.

“No one cancels the possibility of returning the cost of oil to $100 per barrel, and immediately the price of gas will be at least $400,” Yury Korolchuk emphasizes. New turn a conflict in the Middle East or around North Korea could well stimulate a tectonic price shift. And then the entrance to the European market will be open.

The most obvious date for such an operation is 2022, by which time the United States intends to take second place in the global LNG market with a result of about 104 billion cubic meters.

Already now everything looks so that the United States intends to use every opportunity to squeeze out potential competitors. For example, the sharp deterioration in US relations with Qatar looks like the beginning of a campaign to oust it from second place in the global LNG market. Even more clearly in all the world media is the demonization of Russia, all of whose gas contracts with the EU countries are tied to the cost of oil.

Once oil rises and US and Russian gas prices equalize, "democracy" as a makeweight will become essential to European buyers. American gas, subject to an increase in gas prices, will be able to break into the European market, and if the current ratio of American gas supplies to Europe and Asia continues, then by 2022 the United States will be able to grab more than 40 billion cubic meters of the European gas "pie". And by 2030, when the 12 LNG terminals currently under construction in the United States reach full capacity, there will be a chance to completely oust Russia from the European gas market.

Stop threads

To do this, it will be necessary to show the "unreliability" of the Russian supplier. Obviously, if the Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream gas pipelines currently under construction are pumping gas to Europe, it will be extremely difficult to do so. However, if the implementation of these projects is not allowed, then, in addition to the first branch of the Nord Stream with throughput 55 billion cubic meters per year, all that remains is to pump gas through Ukraine.

And anything can happen there - from the next "gas wars" with Russia to the banal failure of the gas transportation system that has not been modernized for a long time. The United States now largely controls the Ukrainian government and can create a similar situation at any moment.

Delayed start: there were obstacles on the Nord Stream 2 route

Any excuse that Kyiv is to blame for everything will not warm Europeans in a cold winter. At the same time, the developed infrastructure for shale gas production allows the United States to increase production at any time without any special costs, which is a serious advantage.

Well, the US propaganda machine, which has been suggesting to the Western electorate for years that Moscow is to blame for everything, will successfully continue to do the same thing. The reputation of the Russian Federation as a supplier will be damaged, and Europe will simply be forced to buy American gas. And over time, Russia may also block the first Nord Stream.

Time is playing against Russia

The probability that Nord Stream 2 will not be laid is not zero. Recently, the Danish parliament approved a law that will allow the country's Foreign Ministry to consider the feasibility of laying pipelines through the territorial waters of the kingdom in the light of national security considerations.

According to experts, if the Danish authorities take advantage of the adopted law, this can lead to higher costs and an increase in the project implementation period - at least a year. During this time, the US authorities will make every effort to ensure that Nord Stream 2 is not built and will try to finally bury the project.

The situation is similar with the Turkish Stream, which is supposed to supply gas to Greece through Turkey, which leaves no hope of becoming a new European gas hub. However, apparently, the United States is already seriously concerned about the Greek issue.

An American non-governmental organization close to the US authorities analytical center The Atlantic Council, which provides and maintains NATO's development ideology, has released a report on Russia's "Trojan horses" - influence groups that Moscow can rely on in the West and in Europe in particular to advance its interests.

It notes that Greece and Cyprus could be the next victims of Russian “hybrid influence,” and the State Department should strengthen financial support non-governmental media in these countries. It is also recommended to expand grant support programs of cooperation between American and Greek media to prevent "information penetration" of Russia.

To enhance the effectiveness of “information support”, it is proposed to expand the powers and budget of the Global Information Center, a structure that now operates as part of the State Department and is responsible for counterterrorism propaganda. It is proposed to reorient it to counter Russia and begin funding through the Ministry of Defense.

It should be noted that all this is extremely reminiscent of preparations for the next “color revolution”, similar to those that took place in Ukraine (twice) and in the Arab East.

And what about Russia?

It is still difficult for Moscow to influence European bureaucrats, world media and Ukraine. However Russian authorities do not sit idly by. Their retaliatory move was perhaps the most effective in the current situation and was made in Syria. Successful operation The Russian Aerospace Forces in the Syrian Arab Republic has made Russia an influential player in the Middle East. This improved relations with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran. Not least thanks to the mistakes made by the United States.

“Recently, Russia has begun to pay a lot of attention to regional players, their participation, their role - I mean, first of all, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey. Russia views them as sovereign states that have their own political will to build a dialogue and build an international game according to their own rules. In fact, a new world order is now being formed, ”said Yuri Mavashev, head of the political direction of the Center for the Study of Modern Turkey, on the website.

As a result, Moscow managed to achieve the necessary oil prices with the help of OPEC, controlled by the Saudis. Note too low prices unprofitable for Russia, because they bring down the oil and gas sector and the national currency, which is fraught with serious shocks in the country. After all, it has not yet been possible to reduce the share of resources in the structure of the Russian economy to a safe level. Too high oil prices allow the US to start an operation to oust the Russian Federation from the European gas market. So Moscow has to balance "on the razor's edge", keeping the price at around $60 per barrel.

In addition, agreements with the main Middle Eastern players sharply reduce the chances of another major war in this oil-bearing region and, accordingly, reduce Washington's ability to influence the cost of "black gold".

“Now we are talking about serious infrastructure and transport projects, and in any case, just like the Great silk road- 2, involve several states of the region - for example, China, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkey. There may be many more such projects that are absolutely impossible in the conditions of a permanent war. And conflicts, unfortunately, do not become less. The realization that everyone is tired of this permanent war also, not least, forms the basis and strengthens the agreements between Russia, Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia,” Mavashev is sure.

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Appearance of an opponent? Or will Russian gas exports to Europe start to fall?

The official opening of the "Southern Gas Corridor" took place at the Sangachal terminal near Baku, through which Azerbaijani gas will come to Turkey and Europe.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev opened a valve symbolizing the launch of the pipeline system. According to him, the implementation of the project became possible thanks to a wide international cooperation. He expressed his gratitude to the governments of the United States, Great Britain, the leadership of the European Union and international financial institutions for their continued support for the implementation of the corridor.

"Azerbaijani gas is a new source of gas supplies to Europe, and by implementing the SGC we are re-creating the energy map of the continent," Aliyev stressed.

This corridor includes three gas pipelines - South Caucasus, Trans-Anatolian (TANAP) and Trans-Adriatic (TAP). According to it, the transportation of 16 billion cubic meters was contracted: 6 billion - to Turkey via TANAP and 10 billion - to Europe via TAP. There are plans to increase the capacity of TANAP to 24 billion cubic meters by 2023 and to 31 billion by 2026. The resource base is the Azerbaijani Shah Deniz field.

Deliveries of expensive American LNG could kill the European industry, making it uncompetitive from the use of expensive gas. That is why the arrival of a new player in Europe - American LNG - is not very noticeable, the supplies are symbolic. But Azerbaijan's pipeline gas can already be a real competitor to Russian gas.

Does this pipeline project threaten Gazprom's position in the Turkish and European markets?

Unlike American LNG, the supply of which could kill the European petrochemical industry, making it uncompetitive from the use of expensive gas, Azerbaijani gas can become a real alternative to Russian.

“In the markets of individual countries, competition with Russian gas is possible. Greece and Bulgaria should receive 1 billion cubic meters of Azerbaijani gas each, but the main competition will be in the Turkish and Italian markets, there is no escape from this,” says Igor Yushkov, a leading expert of the National Energy Security Fund.

Another question is whether the Azerbaijanis will be able to fill the pipe with the promised 16 billion cubic meters, not to mention plans to double its capacity? “Azerbaijan encountered problems in the development of the second phase of the Shah Deniz field (which is resource base for the Southern Gas Corridor), there were delays, the project is quite expensive. Secondly, Azerbaijan has problems with production in other areas, which it is trying to solve by buying gas from Russia,” says Yushkov.

Since November 2017, Azerbaijan has resumed the purchase of Russian gas, which were stopped in 2006 in connection with the launch of the Azerbaijani Shah Deniz field. Apparently, Azerbaijan has fears that its own gas reserves will be enough to increase supplies to third countries. Whereas the contract with Turkey and European consumers is tough - he is obliged to supply 16 billion cubic meters, regardless of his own problems.

“It turns out that Azerbaijan will pump gas from one field to Europe, and solve problems at other fields at the expense of Russia, buying Russian gas for domestic consumption. A reasonable question arises - who, in the end, supplies gas to Europe - Russia or Azerbaijan?

Finally, Azerbaijan should prepare for the fact that the United States can easily turn from a partner into a rival in the near future. When the Southern Gas Corridor project was just being developed as a competitor to Russia, the United States supported it. Since then, however, Washington's position has changed dramatically. They are openly torpedoing Russia, making no secret of the fact that they oppose Nord Stream 2 for their own commercial gain. But other alternative suppliers are now perceived by the US as competitors preventing American LNG from capturing the European market.

“Azerbaijan is becoming a competitor to American LNG in the Turkish and European markets. Therefore, it is hardly worth expecting that the Americans will continue to zealously support Azerbaijani gas projects,” Yushkov said.

In general, it is not worth waiting for a drop in Russian gas exports to Turkey and the EU due to the emergence of a new Azerbaijani player. It must be understood that the South gas corridor”is a very old project, and its rivalry has long been calculated and taken into account by Gazprom.

And in general, the volumes of the Azerbaijani market are small compared to those of Gazprom. So, last year, Gazprom supplied Turkey with 29 billion cubic meters of gas. This is a new historical record, which is 1.7 billion cubic meters more than the previous maximum in 2014 (27.3 billion cubic meters). Turkey is the second largest importer of Russian gas after Germany. From June 2018, Turkey will start receiving 6 billion cubic meters of Azerbaijani gas.

The Turks will not reduce the purchase of Russian gas under the contract, Yushkov believes. However, the orders of Turkish buyers in excess of contractual volumes can be replaced by Azerbaijani gas. On the other hand, the Turks can replace with Azerbaijani gas not Russian fuel, but more expensive LNG or Iranian gas, which they also buy, Yushkov said. Therefore, Russia's share of the Turkish market is unlikely to suffer.

In the European market, Azerbaijani gas will only compete with Gazprom's gas from 2020. Because its deliveries in transit through Turkey via the TAP gas pipeline are planned only in two years. It's about about the supply of only 10 billion cubic meters of Azerbaijani gas for Europeans. Gazprom supplies the EU with more than 160 billion cubic meters (excluding Turkey), and deliveries have been growing for three years in a row. The main rivalry may unfold in the Italian market. However, in Italy, the demand for blue fuel will grow due to the closure of coal-fired power plants by 8 gigawatts by 2025. Therefore, Azerbaijan can take on the growing demand, and Gazprom's position will not deteriorate.

Does this project jeopardize the implementation of the second line of the Turkish Stream, through which Russian gas should be transited through Turkey for European consumers?

On the one hand, after the other day at SPIEF, Gazprom and Turkey signed a protocol on the onshore section of the second, transit line of the pipe, this is the final point. Russia has almost built marine part the second line of the pipeline, and now it can proceed to the practical implementation of the onshore section. This means that Bulgaria's proposal to return to the cut-down version of the South Stream was rejected, and the second line of the Turkish Stream will definitely be built.

However, questions still remain here. It will take time to develop a detailed route and implementation timeline. It's not clear yet, where will he go pipe from the border with Turkey to European territory. Previously, it was assumed that the gas pipeline would reach the border with Greece (as TAP). But the route can be changed: the pipe can go to Bulgaria, and then the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline, which now carries gas through Ukraine to Turkey (from north to south), will be switched to reverse mode (from south to north).

“It would be beneficial for Gazprom to deliver gas to Bulgaria and further to Hungary, Serbia and Austria, as it was supposed to be done as part of the South Stream route. But so far there are no even negotiations with the Europeans on this topic - where, with whose money gas pipelines will be built across European territory. Therefore, the project may not be implemented by 2020,” the source says.

And this is good news for Ukraine, which can keep the transit of Russian gas in the amount of about 40 billion cubic meters in 2020, after the current contract ends in 2019. This will become possible, the expert explains, if by 2020 the second line of the Turkish Stream with a capacity of 15.75 billion cubic meters does not start working, and one of the branches of Nord Stream-2 (another 20 billion cubic meters) plus 3 billion cubic meters does not have time to be completed , which remain "superfluous" after the launch of all the new capacities of Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream.

“So, after the end of the current transit contract until 2019, we sign an annual contract with Ukraine for the supply of these 40 billion cubic meters, and by 2021 we will launch the remaining gas pipeline capacities. And every year the volume of transit through Ukraine will decrease,” sums up Yushkov.

"Energy Security". This phrase at the end of XX - early XXI centuries in the Western press can be found at least as often, and, most likely, more often than arguments about the threat of terrorism, global warming or problems with illegal migration. For the European Union, energy security, that is, the level of availability of energy carriers and the degree of dependence on their external supplies, is already a serious problem, and over time, according to experts, due to the development of industry, an increase in population and a further increase in oil and gas consumption, and will become a matter of vital importance. That is why special attention is paid to the issue of gas sources in the EU.

Main gas suppliers to Europe

For Europe, whose developed economy needs gas as one of the main energy carriers just like air, there are a number of priority areas in which European countries gas is supplied. Total for this moment There are four such areas. This is gas supplied to Europe from Russia; gas coming from North Africa (more specifically, from Algeria); gas supplied through the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline from Central Asia, Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Azerbaijan; and gas going to the EU along the so-called "Mediterranean ring", that is, from African gas suppliers less significant than Algeria (Libya and Egypt). The last direction is the least important and rather refers to Europe's desperate attempts to at least outline options for removing dependence on existing suppliers, primarily on the Russian OAO Gazprom.

At the same time, Europe also has its own "gas vein", and it is located in Norway. It was Norway, along with Qatar, that became the main source of gas for the European Union in 2009: these two countries provided the Europeans with 11.6 billion cubic meters of gas, while Gazprom delivered 11.3 billion cubic meters to the European consumer over the same period. In addition, there is a dynamic, according to which Norway and Qatar are increasing the pace of gas supplies to Europe compared to former leader, Gazprom: Qatar sold 2.5 billion cubic meters of gas in February 2010, which is 6.5 times more than in the same period in 2008. At the same time, Qatar is not going to raise gas prices. And Norway has its own merits: it can carry out direct transit to its consumers, unlike Gazprom (and here the specter of the crisis in relations between Russia and Ukraine at the turn of 2008-2009 arises, because of which gas supplies to Europe were threatened).

Prospects for European Gas Sources

At present, the future prospects for pipeline gas supplies to Europe depend on the success of several competing projects, each of which aims to supply gas to European consumers bypassing intermediary countries and depriving competitors of an advantage. There are three main players here. The first of these is the Russian-European (Germany, Holland, France) Nord Stream project, the construction of which is already in full swing and which will begin to operate, albeit not at full capacity, already in 2011. And this capacity will have to be about 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year at a project cost of 7.5 billion euros. The second is another fruit of Russian-European cooperation, South Stream, in which, in addition to Gazprom, Italian and French companies are involved. This gas pipeline, worth almost 9 billion euros, has also already been put into construction and is scheduled to begin operation in 2015, pumping 63 billion cubic meters of gas per year. Thus, Russia plans to get rid of its dependence on the countries through which gas is currently transited to European countries (primarily Ukraine and Belarus). However, this does not mean a monopolization of the European gas market: in parallel, the Nabucco gas pipeline project is being developed, according to which gas from Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan will be delivered through Turkey, that is, bypassing Russia, to Eastern Europe. True, the construction of the gas pipeline will begin only in 2011 and end in 2014, and the capacity of Nabucco will be no more than 32 billion cubic meters per year at a construction cost of 8 billion euros. These indicators are inferior to those of Russian-European projects, but Europe thereby receives a safety option, thanks to which its dependence on Russian gas is significantly reduced.

However, Europe is increasingly consuming the so-called liquefied natural gas (which is liquefied for transportation, and liquefied again upon delivery to the consumer) - already now there are about two dozen regasification terminals in the EU, the total capacity of which reaches approximately 130 billion cubic meters of gas. Considering that the Europeans are actively building such additional terminals, and Qatar, the largest supplier of liquefied natural gas, is becoming more active in the local market, we can state that this particular direction is currently the most promising for Europe in terms of ensuring energy security.

Alexander Babitsky

MOSCOW, February 27 - RIA Novosti. RIA-Analytics experts, based on Gazprom's quarterly data on gas sales abroad, prepared a rating of the countries that are the largest buyers of Russian gas.

The first place in the rating was taken by Ukraine, to which Gazprom sold about 40 billion cubic meters in 2011. m. of gas. At the same time, Ukraine has significantly increased its lead over Germany (34 billion cubic meters), which is in second place. The third place was occupied by Turkey, displacing the Republic of Belarus to fourth place in 2011, where there has been a decrease in sales of Russian gas. The top ten also includes Italy, Poland, France, Great Britain, the Czech Republic and Hungary.

According to RIA-Analystica, Latvia (+60% compared to 2010), Estonia (+51%) are among the leaders in the growth of gas sales of OAO Gazprom (the vast majority of Russian gas sales are accounted for by this company) in 2011 , Turkey (+44%), Greece (+37%) and Italy (+31%).
The largest decline in domestic gas sales in 2011 was observed in Serbia and Montenegro (-21%), Finland (-12%) and the Czech Republic (11%). In general, only 8 consumer countries reduced their purchases of domestic gas, while 22 countries increased their purchases.

In general, according to Gazprom's data, gas sales abroad in 2011 increased by 7.4% compared to 2010 to 221.1 billion cubic meters. m. Including in the countries of Central and Western Europe, sales growth amounted to 8.2% to 150 billion cubic meters. m, and in the CIS and Baltic countries - by 4.6% to 71.1 billion cubic meters. m.

However, during the year, the dynamics of gas exports was not the same. In the first half of the year, gas consumers tried to load their gas storage facilities to the maximum, expecting a significant increase in prices in the second half of the year. In the first quarter, growth in gas sales by Gazprom compared to the same period in 2010 amounted to 31.3%, in the second quarter - 17.6%. In the future, supplies began to decline compared to 2010. In the 3rd quarter, the decrease in exports amounted to 5.8%, in the 4th quarter - 13.2%.

As RIA-Analystica experts note in a published article, the deterioration in the dynamics of export sales in the second half of the year is due to the fact that the contract prices of Russian gas significantly exceeded spot prices in Europe during this period. As a result, the protest moods of consumers have increased, as it has happened before.

European energy companies demanded that Gazprom reduce base prices or take into account the price of the exchange market in the formula for calculating the contract price. Some of them (German E.ON., RWE, Polish PGNiG) applied to the arbitration court.

Given the emerging market conditions, Gazprom gradually began to make concessions to its customers. First he lowered the prices small companies in Italy, Germany, Serbia. Then, large companies also made concessions. In mid-February 2012, Gazprom reduced the contract price under long-term gas contracts for European consumers by an average of 10%. At the same time, among consumers who received a discount, such companies as the French GDF Suez, the German Wingas, the Slovak SPP and the Turkish Botas. It is likely that prices for E.ON., RWE, PGNiG will also be reduced in the future. At the same time, according to the management of Gazprom, the discount affected the base price and does not provide for an increase in the share of spot gas in the formula for calculating the contract price.

Gazprom plans to export to Western Europe in 2012 154 billion cubic meters. m - 2.6% more than in 2011. At the same time, it is very likely that exports to the CIS countries will decrease. And although Belarus will increase the consumption of Russian gas, the decline in exports to Ukraine may worsen the statistics as a whole. For example, if Ukraine does halve its gas imports, as follows from the statements of its government, then Gazprom's total exports abroad could be reduced by 10%.

However, it is now quite difficult to calculate the volume of gas exports in 2012, as much will depend on European consumers. Perhaps Gazprom's price discount will satisfy them, and they will choose all the contracted gas. But it is possible that there will be a further increase in purchases on the stock exchange. The exchange gas market in Europe has recently been developing rapidly and, according to RIA-Analystika experts, is becoming an important factor influencing Gazprom's export policy.