Russia will strangle Europe with gas! Russian gas in Europe: between the past and the future

On March 25, on the website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (publishes data from Rosstat and the Federal Customs Service), data on Russian gas exports for the past year, 2015, traditionally appeared. Its volume (to non-CIS countries) amounted to 144.7 billion cubic meters. Recall that a little earlier, Gazprom Export published its figures - according to them, the volume of the same export amounted to 158.6 billion cubic meters.

This contradiction, when Gazprom export data turn out to be 15-30 billion cubic meters more than the volume according to the Federal Customs Service (FCS), has been discussed among observers for several years now.

What's the matter here?

According to one version, Gazprom Export data reflects not only gas supplies from the Russian Federation, but also marketing operations (ie, purchase and sale) with "European" gas. In our opinion, this version is not true. "Gazprom" is really engaged in trading operations with gas, but total sales (deliveries from the Russian Federation + other gas) are given in separate statistics. For example, in 2013, such sales amounted to 172,6 billion cubic meters. For comparison, gas supplies from Russia this year turned out to be equal 161,5 billion according to Gazprom Export and 138 billion according to the FCS. Those. about 10 billion cubic meters of gas are accounted for by trading operations with gas. But, by and large, these "trading" volumes really should not worry us. So why are the data of Gazprom Export and the Federal Customs Service different?

The point is that Gazprom is still engaged in re-exporting certain volumes of Central Asian and Azerbaijani gas to Europe. They are accounted for by Gazprom Export, as these volumes are used to secure Russian contracts for the supply of gas to the EU, but are not taken into account in the FCS, because no export duty is calculated on these volumes.

Russian purchases of Central Asian gas amounted to about 30 billion cubic meters in the early 2010s, and as we know, in last years, against the backdrop of an excess of Russian gas production, began to decline (and a few months ago, Gazprom completely terminated the contract with Turkmenistan). In line with this trend, the difference between the data of Gazprom Export and the Federal Customs Service is also decreasing: from 31.2 billion cubic meters in 2010 to 13.9 billion in the past, 2015, year. It can be expected that at the end of the current year, this difference will be even smaller.

The reader may have a question: why then really not focus only on the data of the Federal Customs Service, why do we need data from Gazprom Export, since the main income comes only from Russian gas directly. There may be two answers here.

First, the volume of gas re-exports is declining and will continue to decrease, being replaced by Russian supplies. At the same time, it is the volumes quoted by Gazprom Export that show us a real market niche for gas supplies from Russia.

Secondly, and most importantly, the volumes published by Gazprom Export reflect the physical transportation of gas through transit pipelines from Russia to the EU. Accordingly, they should be guided by when assessing the required capacities of transit gas pipelines.

In fairness, we note that some questions remain within the framework of such an interpretation of the characteristics of statistics. In particular, the volume of Central Asian and Azerbaijani gas, for example, in 2014 amounted to 26.6 billion cubic meters (Gazprom's reporting for 2014), while the difference in the data of the Federal Customs Service and Gazprom Export is 20 this year, 4 billion cubic meters. As a possible explanation, it can be assumed that part of the Central Asian volumes is not registered on the terms of re-export, so these volumes fall into the export duty base.

Vedomosti figured out how access to OPAL capacities affected Gazprom's transit flows.

Before the TurkStream and Nord Stream 2 are built, Gazprom's methods of delivering gas to Europe are limited to the Yamal-Europe gas pipelines, Nord Stream and the Ukrainian gas transmission system. As transit to European countries, Gazprom also considers the Blue Stream pipeline to Turkey (16 billion cubic meters per year) and direct gas pipelines to Finland and Estonia. But it is no longer possible to transport gas from Turkey and Finland, and no gas was delivered to Europe through gas metering stations in Ivangorod and Izborsk on the border with Estonia in August (according to Entsog). Therefore, only the first three directions provide Gazprom with all the flexibility in choosing transit routes.

“The loading of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline through the territory of Poland in the first week of August, despite the work of OPAL, remained at the maximum level,” Miller said. In daily terms, this is about 90 million cubic meters. m (based on the design capacity of 32.9 billion cubic meters per year). The maximum design capacity of Nord Stream is 150.7 million cubic meters. m per day (55 billion cubic meters per year), but it is limited by the receiving capacities - OPAL and NEL.

“From August 1 to August 8, the loading of the OPAL gas pipeline by Gazprom increased by 30% (see chart). Today, the gas pipeline has reached full capacity. The volume of daily gas supply to the GIS "Greifswald" on August 8 reached 140 million cubic meters. m, i.e., the use of Nord Stream exceeded 90% of the design capacity,” Miller said. Until August 1, inclusive, Gazprom used NEL opportunities by 100% (according to NEL Gastransport GmbH). In total, 126.3 million cubic meters were pumped through two offtake pipelines on August 1. m from 128 million cubic meters. m available. Before the removal of restrictive measures on the claim of the Polish PGNiG in relation to OPAL capacities, these were practically all the transit volumes available to Gazprom along the northern route. Regardless of the size of the demand of European consumers and Gazprom's plans to pump gas into UGSFs, gas volumes in excess of this could be transported to Europe only through Ukraine. According to the operator company OPAL, during the period from August 2 to August 8, 142.5 million cubic meters of gas were pumped through the pipeline. m of gas more than was possible before the resumption of auctions for additional capacity. Even taking into account the reduction in NEL loading through Nord Stream, about 57 million cubic meters were delivered during this time. m of gas, the transit of which could previously be delivered to Europe only via the Ukrainian route.

Despite the redistribution of transit flows and the increase in OPAL load to 100%, daily transit through Ukraine is also growing. According to operational data from Ukrtransgaz, on August 7, the transit of Russian gas to Europe amounted to almost 276 million cubic meters. m is maximum rate from February. On August 5 and 6, these values ​​were fixed at 273.5 million and 272.3 million cubic meters. m respectively.

The daily volume of Russian gas supplies across the border is determined by the orders that Gazprom receives from its European consumers. At the will of Gazprom itself, this value can be increased only if the company pumps gas into underground storage facilities located in Europe, which in this moment and is happening, explains Dmitry Marinchenko, director of corporate division at Fitch Ratings. In this case, the physical transit of gas increases, but the volumes of gas pumped into UGS facilities are not considered exports, since the owner does not change. How many of the 562 million cubic meters m of gas from physical transit for August 9 was supposed to be pumped into underground storage facilities, Gazprom does not specify. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, underground storage filling is 12% behind the previous year's schedule. On August 9, they contained 67.6 billion cubic meters. m of gas (76.9 billion cubic meters on August 9, 2016). In total, 435 million cubic meters were to be pumped into them during the day. m of gas.

"Besides, high level The demand for Russian gas in Europe is explained by its rather low price – it is now profitable for European buyers to buy it. That is why now one can observe an increase in the physical volume of gas transit in all possible directions, including Ukraine,” Marinchenko suggests. According to the expert, for the Ukrainian route, the current load level is peak. “In the future, we can expect that Gazprom will use the capacities of Nord Stream to the maximum, and transit through Ukraine will decrease and will act as a balancing one,” says Marinchenko.

Appearance of an opponent? Or will Russian gas exports to Europe start to fall?

The official opening of the "Southern Gas Corridor" took place at the Sangachal terminal near Baku, through which Azerbaijani gas will come to Turkey and Europe.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev opened a valve symbolizing the launch of the pipeline system. According to him, the implementation of the project became possible thanks to a wide international cooperation. He expressed his gratitude to the governments of the United States, Great Britain, the leadership of the European Union and international financial institutions for their continued support for the implementation of the corridor.

"Azerbaijani gas is a new source of gas supplies to Europe, and by implementing the SGC we are re-creating the energy map of the continent," Aliyev stressed.

This corridor includes three gas pipelines - South Caucasus, Trans-Anatolian (TANAP) and Trans-Adriatic (TAP). According to it, the transportation of 16 billion cubic meters was contracted: 6 billion - to Turkey via TANAP and 10 billion - to Europe via TAP. There are plans to increase the capacity of TANAP to 24 billion cubic meters by 2023 and to 31 billion by 2026. The resource base is the Azerbaijani Shah Deniz field.

Deliveries of expensive American LNG could kill the European industry, making it uncompetitive from the use of expensive gas. That is why the arrival of a new player in Europe - American LNG - is not very noticeable, the supplies are symbolic. But Azerbaijan's pipeline gas can already be a real competitor to Russian gas.

Does this pipeline project threaten Gazprom's position in the Turkish and European markets?

Unlike American LNG, the supply of which could kill the European petrochemical industry, making it uncompetitive from the use of expensive gas, Azerbaijani gas can become a real alternative to Russian.

“In the markets of individual countries, competition with Russian gas is possible. Greece and Bulgaria should receive 1 billion cubic meters of Azerbaijani gas, but the main competition will be in the Turkish and Italian markets, there is no escape from this,” says Igor Yushkov, a leading expert of the National Energy Security Fund.

Another question is whether the Azerbaijanis will be able to fill the pipe with the promised 16 billion cubic meters, not to mention plans to double its capacity? “Azerbaijan encountered problems in the development of the second phase of the Shah Deniz field (which is resource base for the Southern Gas Corridor), there were delays, the project is quite expensive. Secondly, Azerbaijan has problems with production in other areas, which it is trying to solve by buying gas from Russia,” says Yushkov.

Since November 2017, Azerbaijan has resumed the purchase of Russian gas, which were stopped in 2006 in connection with the launch of the Azerbaijani Shah Deniz field. Apparently, Azerbaijan has fears that its own gas reserves will be enough to increase supplies to third countries. Whereas the contract with Turkey and European consumers is tough - he is obliged to supply 16 billion cubic meters, regardless of his own problems.

“It turns out that Azerbaijan will pump gas from one field to Europe, and solve problems at other fields at the expense of Russia, buying Russian gas for domestic consumption. A reasonable question arises - who, in the end, supplies gas to Europe - Russia or Azerbaijan?

Finally, Azerbaijan should prepare for the fact that the United States can easily turn from a partner into a rival in the near future. When the Southern Gas Corridor project was just being developed as a competitor to Russia, the United States supported it. Since then, however, Washington's position has changed dramatically. They are openly torpedoing Russia, making no secret of the fact that they oppose Nord Stream 2 for their own commercial gain. But other alternative suppliers are now perceived by the United States as competitors preventing American LNG from capturing the European market.

“Azerbaijan is becoming a competitor to American LNG in the Turkish and European markets. Therefore, it is hardly worth expecting that the Americans will continue to zealously support Azerbaijani gas projects,” Yushkov said.

In general, it is not worth waiting for a drop in Russian gas exports to Turkey and the EU due to the emergence of a new Azerbaijani player. It must be understood that the South gas corridor”is a very old project, and its rivalry has long been calculated and taken into account by Gazprom.

And in general, the volumes of the Azerbaijani market are small compared to those of Gazprom. So, last year, Gazprom supplied Turkey with 29 billion cubic meters of gas. This is a new historical record, which is 1.7 billion cubic meters more than the previous maximum in 2014 (27.3 billion cubic meters). Turkey is the second largest importer of Russian gas after Germany. From June 2018, Turkey will start receiving 6 billion cubic meters of Azerbaijani gas.

The Turks will not reduce the purchase of Russian gas under the contract, Yushkov believes. However, the orders of Turkish buyers in excess of contractual volumes can be replaced by Azerbaijani gas. On the other hand, the Turks can replace with Azerbaijani gas not Russian fuel, but more expensive LNG or Iranian gas, which they also buy, Yushkov said. Therefore, Russia's share of the Turkish market is unlikely to suffer.

In the European market, Azerbaijani gas will only compete with Gazprom's gas from 2020. Because its deliveries in transit through Turkey via the TAP gas pipeline are planned only in two years. It's about about the supply of only 10 billion cubic meters of Azerbaijani gas for Europeans. Gazprom supplies the EU with more than 160 billion cubic meters (excluding Turkey), and deliveries have been growing for three years in a row. The main rivalry may unfold in the Italian market. However, in Italy, the demand for blue fuel will grow due to the closure of coal-fired power plants by 8 gigawatts by 2025. Therefore, Azerbaijan can take on the growing demand, and Gazprom's position will not deteriorate.

Does this project jeopardize the implementation of the second line of the Turkish Stream, through which Russian gas should be transited through Turkey for European consumers?

On the one hand, after the other day at SPIEF, Gazprom and Turkey signed a protocol on the onshore section of the second, transit line of the pipe, this is the final point. Russia has almost built marine part the second line of the pipeline, and now it can proceed to the practical implementation of the onshore section. This means that Bulgaria's proposal to return to the cut-down version of the South Stream was rejected, and the second line of the Turkish Stream will definitely be built.

However, questions still remain here. It will take time to develop a detailed route and implementation timeline. It's not clear yet, where will he go pipe from the border with Turkey to European territory. Previously, it was assumed that the gas pipeline would reach the border with Greece (as TAP). But the route can be changed: the pipe can go to Bulgaria, and then the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline, which now carries gas through Ukraine to Turkey (from north to south), will be switched to reverse mode (from south to north).

“It would be profitable for Gazprom to deliver gas to Bulgaria and further to Hungary, Serbia and Austria, as it was supposed to be done as part of the South Stream route. But so far there are no even negotiations with the Europeans on this topic - where, with whose money gas pipelines will be built across European territory. Therefore, the project may not be implemented by 2020,” the source says.

And this is good news for Ukraine, which can keep the transit of Russian gas in the amount of about 40 billion cubic meters in 2020, after the current contract ends in 2019. This will become possible, the expert explains, if by 2020 the second line of the Turkish Stream with a capacity of 15.75 billion cubic meters does not start working, and one of the branches of Nord Stream-2 (another 20 billion cubic meters) plus 3 billion cubic meters does not have time to be completed , which remain "superfluous" after the launch of all the new capacities of Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream.

“So, after the end of the current transit contract until 2019, we sign an annual contract with Ukraine for the supply of these 40 billion cubic meters, and by 2021 we will launch the remaining gas pipeline capacities. And every year the volume of transit through Ukraine will decrease,” sums up Yushkov.

In 2017, Gazprom increased exports to Europe to record levels - 193 billion cubic meters, writes Financial Times. As the newspaper notes, Russian fuel continues to be popular on the continent, despite attempts by some EU members to "reduce energy dependence" on Moscow.

Last year, Russian gas exports to Europe grew by 8.1%, reaching a record high of 193 billion cubic meters. All this happened despite growing competition and fears caused by the dominance of the country in the European market, writes the Financial Times.

According to the publication, the largest gas producing company in the world, Gazprom, supplies almost 40% of blue fuel to Europe. But in recent years, it has had to cut prices to maintain market share. This is especially true against the background of the aspirations of some EU members " reduce dependence" from Moscow.

Thus, Poland, Lithuania and other countries are building terminals for the storage of liquefied natural gas in order to increase its exports from the US and Qatar. In addition, some eastern members of the European bloc are trying to block Gazprom's energy projects, including Nord Stream 2. They claim that in this way they will be able to " weaken the Kremlin and punish it for the annexation of Crimea».

Nevertheless, despite all these difficulties, Gazprom is reporting record exports to Europe for the second year in a row. The consumption of Russian gas compensates for the decline in domestic production in the Netherlands and other countries of the continent, the publication explains.

« The trend of increasing the record figures for the second year in a row, on the one hand, demonstrates the actively growing demand of European countries for Russian gas, on the other—its reliable supply in the required volumes", - said the chairman of the board of "Gazprom" Alexei Miller.

In an attempt to maintain export sales, which account for most its income, Gazprom increased its investment in the construction of new highways. In particular, the company spent $55 billion on the Power of Siberia pipeline, which should start supplying gas to China in next year, notes the publication.

The construction of Nord Stream 2 was delayed due to its protests in the EU. The project is also threatened by US sanctions that could limit financial participation. European companies. In addition, Gazprom faces internal competition from Novatek, which recently launched the Yamal LNG plant, the Financial Times emphasizes.

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"Energy Security". This phrase at the end of XX - early XXI centuries in the Western press can be found at least as often, and, most likely, more often than arguments about the threat of terrorism, global warming or problems with illegal migration. For European Union energy security, i.e. the level of availability of energy carriers and the degree of dependence on their external supplies, is already a serious problem, and over time, according to experts, due to the development of industry, an increase in the population and a further increase in oil and gas consumption, it will completely turn into to a matter of vital importance. That is why special attention is paid to the issue of gas sources in the EU.

Main gas suppliers to Europe

For Europe, whose developed economy needs gas as one of the main energy carriers just like air, there are a number of priority areas in which European countries gas is supplied. Total for this moment There are four such areas. This is gas supplied to Europe from Russia; gas coming from North Africa(more specifically, from Algeria); gas supplied through the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline from Central Asia, Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Azerbaijan; and gas going to the EU along the so-called "Mediterranean ring", that is, from African gas suppliers less significant than Algeria (Libya and Egypt). The last direction is the least important and rather refers to Europe's desperate attempts to at least outline options for removing dependence on existing suppliers, primarily on the Russian OAO Gazprom.

At the same time, Europe also has its own "gas vein", and it is located in Norway. It was Norway, along with Qatar, that became the main source of gas for the European Union in 2009: these two countries provided the Europeans with 11.6 billion cubic meters of gas, while Gazprom delivered 11.3 billion cubic meters to the European consumer over the same period. In addition, there is a dynamic, according to which Norway and Qatar are increasing the pace of gas supplies to Europe compared to former leader, Gazprom: Qatar sold 2.5 billion cubic meters of gas in February 2010, which is 6.5 times more than in the same period in 2008. At the same time, Qatar is not going to raise gas prices. And Norway has its own merits: it can carry out direct transit to its consumers, unlike Gazprom (and here the specter of the crisis in relations between Russia and Ukraine at the turn of 2008-2009 arises, because of which gas supplies to Europe were threatened).

Prospects for European Gas Sources

At present, the future prospects for pipeline gas supplies to Europe depend on the success of several competing projects, each of which aims to supply gas to a European consumer bypassing intermediary countries and depriving competitors of an advantage. There are three main players here. The first of these is the Russian-European (Germany, Holland, France) Nord Stream project, the construction of which is already in full swing and which will start functioning, albeit not at full capacity, already in 2011. And this capacity will have to be about 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year at a project cost of 7.5 billion euros. The second is another fruit of Russian-European cooperation, South Stream, in which, in addition to Gazprom, Italian and French companies are involved. This gas pipeline, worth almost 9 billion euros, has also already been put into construction and is scheduled to begin operation in 2015, pumping 63 billion cubic meters of gas per year. Thus, Russia plans to get rid of its dependence on the countries through which gas is currently transited to European countries (primarily Ukraine and Belarus). However, this does not mean a monopolization of the European gas market: in parallel, the Nabucco gas pipeline project is being developed, according to which gas from Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan will be delivered through Turkey, that is, bypassing Russia, to Eastern Europe. True, the construction of the gas pipeline will begin only in 2011 and end in 2014, and the capacity of Nabucco will be no more than 32 billion cubic meters per year at a construction cost of 8 billion euros. These indicators are inferior to those of Russian-European projects, but Europe thereby receives a safety option, thanks to which its dependence on Russian gas is significantly reduced.

However, Europe is increasingly consuming the so-called liquefied natural gas (which is liquefied for transportation, and liquefied again upon delivery to the consumer) - already now there are about two dozen regasification terminals in the EU, the total capacity of which reaches approximately 130 billion cubic meters of gas. Considering that the Europeans are actively building such additional terminals, and Qatar, the largest supplier of liquefied natural gas, is becoming more and more active in the local market, it can be stated that this particular direction is currently the most promising for Europe in terms of ensuring energy security.

Alexander Babitsky