Iran Saudi Arabia conflict. Saudi Arabia and Iran: duel in the Persian Gulf. Oil conflicts will not help

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (left) and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani

Iran and Saudi Arabia have long claimed a leading role in the region, but recently relations between the two countries have seriously deteriorated.

Each of them has its allies and opponents in the Middle East and beyond, what does the alignment of forces look like?

Saudi Arabia

This kingdom with a predominantly Sunni population is considered the birthplace of Islam, and it is there that the main Muslim shrines are located. In addition, it is also one of the world's leading oil exporters and one of the richest countries in the world.

Saudi Arabia fears that Iran may take a dominant position in the Middle East, and in every possible way prevents the growing influence of this Shiite country in the region.

Saudi Arabia's belligerent attitude toward Iran appears to be supported by Donald Trump, who has taken an equally tough stance against Tehran.

The young and increasingly powerful Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is waging war against Houthi rebels in neighboring Yemen. The Saudis claim that Iran is providing material assistance to the rebels, Tehran denies these accusations.

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Saudi Arabia leads coalition fighting Houthi rebels in Yemen

Saudi Arabia, in turn, supports the rebels in Syria and seeks the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad, Iran's main ally.

The armed forces of Saudi Arabia are among the most powerful in the region, and Riyadh is among the world's main importers of weapons. The Saudi army has 227 thousand people.

Iran

Iran became an Islamic republic in 1979 when the Shah's regime was overthrown. Political power was seized by the clerics, led by the supreme leader Ayatollah Khomeini.

Most of Iran's 80 million people are Shiite Muslims, and the country is considered the leading Shiite power in the region. The final decision in all matters of foreign and domestic policy is taken by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Over the past 10 years, Iran's influence in the region has greatly increased, especially after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq.

Iran supports Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the war against opposition groups and the Islamic State extremist group [banned in Russia and other countries]. The fighters of the elite Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps participated in offensive operations against Sunni jihadists in Syria and Iraq.

Iran also believes that Saudi Arabia is trying to destabilize the situation in Lebanon, where the government includes the Shia movement Hezbollah, which enjoys the support of Iran.

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is considered a major military, economic and political force in Iran.

Iran sees the United States as its main adversary.

According to some reports, Iran has some of the most advanced missile systems in the region. The armed forces of Iran number 534 thousand people, including the army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

USA

Relations between the US and Iran remain strained, to put it mildly. There are many reasons for this, including the overthrow of the Iranian prime minister in 1953 with the participation of the CIA, the Islamic revolution in Iran, and the hostage-taking at the American embassy in Tehran in the 80s.

For its part, Saudi Arabia has always remained a US ally, although relations have been very strained under the Obama administration, given Washington's policy of engagement with Iran.

President Trump has pledged to take a tougher stance on Iran and is now threatening to cancel the historic Tehran nuclear deal signed under Obama.

At the same time, the royal house of Saudi Arabia and the White House treat each other with great respect.

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Saudi Arabia has long enjoyed the support of the United States

Trump and his administration never criticize radical Saudi Islam the way they criticize Iran's ties to terrorism. Nor were Saudis included in the list of foreign nationals subject to the much-controversial ban on entry into the United States.

Donald Trump made his first trip as president to the Middle East, where he met with Saudi and Israeli leaders, who are united by the desire to prevent the growth of Iranian influence in the region.

Saudi Arabia is also a major buyer of US weapons.

Russia

Russia is the only one that manages to remain an ally of both Saudi Arabia and Iran. With each of these countries, she has established close economic ties, in addition, she sells weapons to both countries.

Russia has not taken any side in the current dispute between Tehran and Riyadh, making it clear that it is ready to act as a mediator.

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption According to Vladimir Putin, the Syrian army, with the support of Russian aviation, has already liberated more than 90% of the country's territory from militants.

Russia's involvement in the Middle East dates back to the Cold War, when the Soviet Union supplied weapons to Syria and trained its officers.

Moscow's influence on Syria and the region as a whole has noticeably weakened after the collapse of the USSR, but the Kremlin has been carefully building it up lately.

The air support provided to the Syrian army by Russian aircraft helped turn the tide of the Syrian war in favor of the Assad regime and the pro-Iranian fighters who fought on its side.

Turkey

Turkey is deftly balancing between Iran and Saudi Arabia, while the military and political situation in the Middle East is rapidly changing.

Ankara began to show more interest in the situation in the region after the often called Islamist Justice and Development Party came to power in 2002.

Sunni-majority Turkey has developed close ties with Saudi Arabia based on religious kinship and shared opposition to the Syrian government.

Despite a deep mistrust of Iran, Turkey has relatively recently formed an alliance with it against the growing influence of the Kurds in the region, which both countries see as a threat.

Image copyright ADEM ALTAN Image caption Turkish President decides to support Qatar in its confrontation with Saudi Arabia

Israel

Israel, founded in 1948, of all the Arab countries has established diplomatic relations only with Egypt and Jordan.

Iran and Israel are considered irreconcilable enemies. Iran denies Israel's right to exist and calls for the destruction of the state.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has always actively called on the international community to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and to cancel the nuclear deal with Tehran in order to curb its "aggressive" policy in the region.

According to Netanyahu, cooperation has even been established with a number of Arab countries in order to prevent the growth of Iran's influence in the region. In turn, Saudi Arabia denied reports that appeared in the Israeli media that in September one of the Saudi princes secretly came to negotiate with Israel.

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated Trump on "bravely speaking out against the Iranian terrorist regime"

Egypt

Egypt has often played a key role in Middle East politics, and has historically enjoyed more friendly relations with Saudi Arabia than with Iran, especially since the Islamic Revolution.

The Saudis also supported the Egyptian army when it removed Islamist President Mohammed Morsi from power in 2013.

However, Egypt had cases of rapprochement with Iran. For example, Tehran sponsored an oil deal between Egypt and Iraq after the Saudi company Aramco cut off oil supplies to Egypt in October 2016.

After increased tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi called for "avoiding the escalation of tension in the region, but not at the expense of security and stability in the Persian Gulf."

Image copyright DON EMMERT Image caption "The national security of the Gulf countries is the national security of Egypt. I believe in the wise and firm leadership of Saudi Arabia," the Egyptian President said.

Syria

The government of President Bashar al-Assad has firmly taken the side of Iran in the confrontation with Saudi Arabia.

Iran has always supported the Syrian leadership and assisted the Syrian army in the fight against rebels and jihadists.

Iran sees Assad, who belongs to the Alawite branch of Shiism, as its closest Arab ally. Syria is also the main transit point for Iranian weapons to the Shiite group Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Thousands of Hezbollah fighters are fighting on the side of the Syrian government forces. According to experts, due to the level of training and weapons, this group can already be considered a full-fledged army, rather than a militia.

Syrian authorities also often accuse Saudi Arabia of subversive policies in the Middle East.

Image copyright STRINGER Image caption Syrian troops slowly but surely retake territory from IS militants

Lebanon

Lebanon's position in the confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia can be called ambivalent.

Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who announced his resignation from Saudi Arabia a few days ago, has close ties to the Saudis and supports them in their confrontation with Iran.

On the other hand, the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah is an ally of Iran and enjoys its unwavering and substantial support. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah often attacks the Saudi authorities.

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Prime Minister Saad Hariri supported the Saudis, but there are staunch supporters of Iran in Lebanon

Gulf States

In the past, Gulf states such as Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait have had closer relations with Saudi Arabia.

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Saudi Arabia demands greater efforts from Qatar in the fight against extremism and terrorism

However, Qatar's ties with Saudi Arabia have noticeably weakened after Qatar refused to comply with Riyadh's demand and break off relations with Tehran at the beginning of the year.

After Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain declared a blockade on Qatar in July, Iran sent five planeloads of groceries there to deal with the shortfall.

In August, Qatar and Iran fully restored diplomatic relations, interrupted after Iranian attacks on two diplomatic missions of Saudi Arabia were carried out.

At the same time, Bahrain and Kuwait continue to lean towards Saudi Arabia.

The main political and military posts in Bahrain are held by members of the Sunni royal family, while 70% of the country's population is Shia.

Bahrain has repeatedly accused Iran of preparing "terror cells" that operate in the country to prepare to overthrow the government. He also accuses the Shia opposition of maintaining ties with Iran.

In October, the Bahraini authorities said that "their country is suffering the most from the expansionist policies of the guards of the Islamic revolution."

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Emir of Kuwait offered to mediate talks between Doha and Riyadh

Although Kuwait does not participate in the blockade of Qatar, its authorities have abandoned the alliance with Iran and now side with Saudi Arabia.

In February, Kuwait called for improved Arab-Iranian relations, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani visited the country for the first time since the 2013 elections.

However, due to the crisis in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait expelled 15 Iranian diplomats from the country and closed the military, cultural and trade mission of Iran.

The execution in Saudi Arabia of 47 "terrorists", including the Shiite preacher Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, led to very serious consequences - now the entire region of the Middle East is on the verge of a regional war.

Moreover, what happened looks quite planned: the reaction of Iran and Iranian society was quite predictable, and the chain of breaks in diplomatic relations with the main Shiite country by the states of the “Islamic military coalition” (Saudi Arabia announced its creation in December 2015) look agreed in advance. At the moment, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Sudan have already announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Iran, Kuwait recalled the ambassador from Tehran. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain cut off flights to Iran.

In fact, the indirect war between the "Sunni" and "Shia" world is already in full swing - the main battlefields have become Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Now there is a far from zero possibility of a major regional war between the Shiites, led by Iran, and the Sunnis, led by Saudi Arabia. Therefore, it will be interesting to assess the strength of the parties and the scale of what could happen in such an extremely negative scenario.

Saudi Arabia - "colossus with feet of clay"?

The armed forces of Saudi Arabia are equipped with the most modern military equipment and in sufficient quantities. The country's military budget ranks 4th in the world, approaching $60 billion. In total, the number of armed forces is 233,000 people. The ground forces are armed with up to 450 modern American M1A2 Abrams tanks, about 400 M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, more than 2,000 armored vehicles and armored personnel carriers, a large number of cannon and rocket artillery, including 50 American multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) M270. In addition, the Saudi Arabian Armed Forces are armed with up to 60 Dongfeng-3 ballistic missiles purchased from China. Initially, they are designed to deliver nuclear weapons over distances of up to 2500 km, but in this case they carry high-explosive warheads, and the accuracy of the missile is very low. There are also rumors about the purchase of more modern Dongfeng-21.

As for the Air Force (Air Force), they are armed with 152 American F-15 fighters of various modifications, 81 European Tornados and 32 European Eurofighter Typhoons. Also in service are early warning and control aircraft (AWACS) and a large number of military transport aircraft.

Air defense is strong - 16 batteries of Patriot PAC-2 long-range anti-aircraft missile systems, numerous Hawk and Crotale air defense systems, hundreds of Stinger MANPADS, etc.

The naval forces are divided into 2 parts: the Western Fleet in the Red Sea and the Eastern Fleet in the Persian Gulf. In the Persian Gulf, there are 3 Al Riyadh class frigates (modernization of the French La Fayette) with Exocet MM40 block II anti-ship missiles (ASMs) with a launch range of up to 72 km. In the Red Sea, there are 4 Al Madinah-class frigates with Otomat Mk2 anti-ship missiles with a maximum launch range of up to 180 km, 4 American Badr-class corvettes with Harpoon anti-ship missiles. Missile and patrol boats are evenly distributed across fleets. As for landing ships, there are 8 of them, and the maximum total landing force can be up to 800 people at a time.
As we can see, the armed forces are impressively equipped, but there is one problem: despite such equipment and quantity, Saudi Arabia has not been able to achieve any serious success in neighboring Yemen for 10 months, in which they are opposed by the Houthi rebel army, armed with outdated . This shows how low the actual combat capability of the armed forces of Saudi Arabia and their allies is.

Iranian Armed Forces are the largest in the region

The Iranian Armed Forces have a strength of 550 thousand people - the largest in the region. At the same time, the military budget in 2015 amounted to about $ 10 billion, which is quite small for such a number. There are more than 1,600 tanks in service, of which about 480 are relatively modern T-72Z and 150 Zulfiqar tanks of our own production (presumably based on the T-72 and the American M60). Infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers are represented by hundreds of obsolete and outdated Soviet models, as well as artillery.

The Air Force is represented by a large number of aircraft of various classes and different countries of production. True, there are no new products among them, and the long sanctions period has certainly affected the combat readiness of aviation - hardly more than 50% of them are in flight condition. They are armed with American F-14 supersonic interceptors, long-obsolete F-4 Phantom and F-5 Tiger fighters, French Mirage-F1. Of the Soviet vehicles, there are MiG-29 fighters, Su-24 front-line bombers, and Su-25 attack aircraft. In total, there are about 300 units of the above equipment.

As for the air defense system, fundamental changes are taking place here - a few years ago, Tor-M1 short-range air defense systems were purchased from Russia, and deliveries of S-300PMU-2 long-range air defense systems began. Thus, very soon Iran will not yield to Saudi Arabia in this aspect.

As for the Navy, the diversity here is noticeably greater than that of Saudi Arabia. In addition, most of the ships are concentrated in the Persian Gulf (a small part of the ships are in the Caspian Sea). There are 3 Project 877 Halibut submarines, 26 more locally produced small submarines carrying mines and torpedoes, 5 frigates, 6 corvettes (all of their own production), more than 50 missile boats (Chinese, Iranian and German production). Interestingly, all Iranian missile ships use Chinese-made anti-ship missiles - S-701 (range 35 km, anti-submarine) and YJ-82 (range up to 120 km).

Thus, Iran has an advantage over a potential adversary in terms of the Navy. In addition, as a result of many years of existence under economic sanctions, Iran has its own military-industrial complex - perhaps its products do not differ in any great characteristics, nevertheless, they provide the country with some independence from external supplies. The missile program has achieved quite a lot of success - the country is armed with a number of short and medium-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, etc. In total, their number can exceed 200-300 units.

The most likely scenario is a further increase in the intensity of conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Yemen

The geographical position is not very conducive to the start of a direct military clash between the countries - Saudi Arabia and Iran do not border on each other. Therefore, the parties are likely to increase their involvement in the conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. This will not lead to anything good for these countries, but will only prolong the hybrid wars going on in them even more. True, for Saudi Arabia, Yemen may turn out to be a “weak spot” - despite the 150,000th ground grouping, 185 aviation units (including allies), the operation against the Houthis does not lead to any results. The reason for this is both the very low combat capability of the Saudi Armed Forces and the competent actions of the rebels, who are probably supported by Iranian specialists. If this support increases (technically it is not easy, since Iran can maintain communication with Yemen only by sea), coupled with the presence of Shiites densely residing in Saudi Arabia, this situation could lead to disaster for Riyadh. In any case, this scenario is a further stage of the war of attrition - a war that is also combined with the struggle for oil markets, as a result of which everyone increases the production of "black gold" and knocks down prices on the exchanges. In such a scenario, the side that “breaks” earlier will lose.

Full-scale war - chaos for many years?

If all the same, a full-scale war breaks out, then the main "battlefields" will be the Persian Gulf, and probably the territory of Iraq and Kuwait (they are located between Saudi Arabia and Iran). At the same time, Qatar is clearly an ally of the Saudis, and the current authorities of Iraq are allies of the Iranians. Despite the apparent superiority of Saudi Arabia and its allies, Iran has several trump cards - it controls the Strait of Hormuz and does not have a war in the rear, near its borders (like Yemen for the Saudis). The Iranian Navy quite allows to "slam" the strait for the passage of any enemy ships. Such a move would spell economic disaster for the Gulf countries that are part of the coalition against Iran, while the Iranians themselves would be able to continue exporting oil. In addition to stopping the receipt of money from the sale of oil, which is still one way or another a temporary factor, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and other Gulf countries may lose all their sales markets, which the United States, Russia and all the same Iran.

If the war drags on, it will have absolutely unpredictable outcomes - both sides will strike each other with ballistic missiles (here Iran will inflict more damage), try to "set fire" to local opposition forces, set neighboring countries against each other. All this can finally destroy the Middle East that we know and in a few years lead to the formation of a completely different map of the region.
The most important question that arises is what will Saudi Arabia's big Sunni allies like Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey do. Pakistan's direct involvement in the conflict seems extremely unlikely as the country has a "longtime friend" in India and being distracted by major conflicts with someone else could be suicidal. Turkey can intensify its actions in Syria and Iraq, and, given the rather aggressive policy inherent in this country, intervene in the conflict. This could be of great help to the Saudis, but the Kurdish forces in Turkey may well seize the moment and strike from within. As for Egypt, the country is far enough away from a possible theater of operations and is unlikely to interfere more than it does now (at the moment the country is participating in the blockade of the coast of Yemen).

The Saudi-Iranian rift is the most serious conflict between the leaders of the Islamic world in 30 years. RBC figured out how it arose, whether it can escalate into a war, how it threatens negotiations on Syria and oil prices

Shia protesters hold portraits of executed cleric Nimr al-Nimr in Baghdad, Iraq, January 4, 2016 (Photo: AP)

On January 3, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Iran due to an attack on the kingdom's diplomatic missions after the execution of Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr in Saudi Arabia. Following Riyadh, similar decisions were made by Bahrain and Sudan. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has downgraded its mutual diplomatic representation with Iran to the level of charge d'affaires. On January 5, Kuwait recalled its ambassador from Iran. What threatens the escalation of the conflict between the two largest powers in the Middle East?

Complicated Relationships

Relations between predominantly Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia have been tense for years due to disagreements on issues ranging from the interpretation of Islam, oil export policy, relations with the US and the West. Each of the countries is considered an informal leader in its segment of the Islamic world - Iran in the Shiite, Saudi Arabia in the Sunni, and both historically fight among themselves for leadership in the entire Muslim community.

Relations between the countries deteriorated significantly after the Islamic revolution of 1979, which abolished the monarchy in Iran and returned the disgraced AyatollahKhomeini , after which Iran actually became a theocratic state. The sharply anti-American orientation of the revolution also made the country's natural opponents: Saudi Arabia is traditionally the main ally of the United States in the Islamic world. The revolution called into question the leadership of Saudi Arabia in the Islamic world, and also alarmed the Sunni kingdom and other Gulf countries with significant Shiite populations, whose authorities feared the export of the Islamic revolution.

Who causes conflict

Nimr al-Nimr was born in 1959 in the east of Saudi Arabia, where the Shiite population of the country is concentrated, studied for about ten years in the Shiite holy city of Qom (Iran), then in Syria, became a popular preacher among the Shiite youth. Al-Nimr has been a critic of the Saudi Arabian government, advocated free elections and other reforms, and opposed the oppression of Shiites. He argued that the eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia, where there is a large number of Shiites, should secede from the kingdom if discrimination against Shiites continues. In 2008, American diplomats who met with him called the sheikh the second most important Shia figure in the country.

In 2004 and 2006, Nimr al-Nimr was briefly arrested. His last arrest during Shia demonstrations in July 2012 was decisively influenced by a social media video of al-Nimr speaking on the occasion of the death of the kingdom's interior minister, Prince Naif bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, who had overseen the religious police since 1975. “He will be devoured by worms, while he himself will suffer hellish torments in his grave,” al-Nimr said in the video.

Sentenced to death for "inciting discord and endangering national unity". The sheikh was charged with calls for the intervention of foreign states in the affairs of Saudi Arabia, the use of weapons against the forces of law and order and disobedience to the authorities. Executed on January 2, 2016.​

But Iran did not officially support Islamic revolutions in other countries, and then a large-scale conflict between the two states was avoided. It began only in 1988, after an attack by demonstrators on the Saudi embassy in Tehran, which resulted in the death of one diplomat. The reason for the conflict was the death in 1987 of about 400 Iranian pilgrims who arrived in the kingdom for the Hajj and died in clashes with local police. Then the countries for the first time severed diplomatic relations.

Since then, both countries have constantly put forward mutual claims. Riyadh accuses Tehran of supporting the Shiite opposition existing in the country, seeking to extend its influence to Iraq, the Levant and other areas of the Middle East, as well as trying to destabilize the region by creating nuclear weapons. Iran, in turn, accuses Saudi Arabia of violating the rights of the Shiite minority.

The latest event that aggravated Iranian-Saudi relations was an agreement on Iran's nuclear program, which, if sanctions are lifted from the Islamic Republic, will give Tehran more financial and political opportunities to defend its interests in the region.

In conflicts in the Middle East, both countries have always supported polar factions, and the current Middle East conflict is no exception. In the Syrian civil war, Iran is the main Middle East ally of President Bashar al-Assad, and Saudi Arabia is the main sponsor of the Syrian armed opposition. In the fight against the "Islamic State" (banned in Russia), both countries are also involved in different coalitions - Saudi Arabia in the west, led by its ally the United States, and Iran - in a coalition with Iraq and Russia.

Escalation risks

“The situation that has developed as a result of the confrontation between the two most influential countries in the region is unpredictable. The hybrid war [in Yemen] is already underway. It could spiral out of control in the coming weeks or months,” Fawaz Gerdes, a Middle East specialist at the London School of Economics, told CNN. Experts suggest that Saudi Arabia and Iran will not go into an open military confrontation in the near future, but local conflicts in the Middle East, almost in each of which both countries participate, will escalate. “Since 1979, both states have indirectly entered into a number of local military conflicts throughout the Middle East and often exchanged threats and insults. But in the end, they always stopped a step away from direct conflict and came to a cold truce, ”Karim Sajapour, Middle East expert at the Carnegie Endowment, told Reuters.

Riyadh and Tehran's standoff threatens to escalate one such localized conflict in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia is backing a Sunni government in a war against Iranian-backed Shiite Houthi rebels. Also, Sajapour suggests, Iran could provoke unrest among the Shiites of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. “The degree of confrontation is rising, and I’m not sure that tensions will subside anytime soon,” former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia Robert Jordan told Bloomberg.

One of the most important immediate consequences of the conflict between their patrons could be the disruption of talks between the government of Bashar al-Assad and the moderate Syrian opposition scheduled for early this year. At the end of December 2015, the special envoy of the UN Secretary-General for Syria, Stefan de Mistura, said that consultations between the warring parties would be held in Geneva on January 25. Officially, the West has no doubt that the negotiations will take place, and now: "We continue to hope and expect that meetings will be held this month between the opposition and the Syrian authorities," State Department spokesman John Kirby said on January 4.

Unofficially, a Western diplomat told Foreign Policy that "the general background is clearly unfavorable." Now p Opposition representatives may take a tougher stance towards Assad, Iran and Russia and be less willing to compromise, the source said. Under these conditions, much will depend on the diplomatic efforts of the United States and Russia, he added. “The current crisis will significantly complicate the negotiation process,” one US official told Reuters on condition of anonymity. Another official quoted by the agency calls the situation "very fragile."

Saudi Arabia's representative to the UN, Abdullah al-Muallimi, said on January 4 that a Saudi delegation would take part in the talks, but did not place high hopes on their success.

Saudi Arabia's conflict with Iran will not affect the situation in Syria

(Video: RBC TV channel)

Oil conflicts will not help

Last year proved that in the current economic situation, rising tensions in the Middle East are not causing oil prices to rise, as they always have :p according to the results of 2015, the cost of Brent, falling for the third year in a row, decreased by 35%. In the conditions of a glut of the market, the Iran-Saudi crisis can only cause a short-term rise in oil prices - by $ 1-3 per barrel, the agency quotes the opinion of John Auers, vice president of the consulting agency Turner, Mason & Co. According to him, the conflict with Iran is unlikely to force Saudi Arabia, the informal leader of OPEC, to change its strategy of excess production in order to put pressure on prices and force Western shale companies out of the market.

Indeed, in the early hours of trading on Monday, news of a break in diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia caused Brent to jump sharply from $37 to $39 a barrel, despite the decline in stock indices in China, Japan and Europe. But by the end of the trading day immediately after that, oil returned to the level of $37.

Murder of Shia cleric causes uproar in Iran
Photo: Reuters

A new confrontation front has appeared in the Middle East, not yet a military one: Iran and Saudi Arabia broke off diplomatic relations and exchanged mutual provocations. The reason was the execution in Saudi Arabia of the Shiite preacher Nimr al-Nimr, authoritative in Iran. However, the political stakes are much larger and more diverse than the life of an individual cleric. At stake is the success of the Syrian negotiation process, the lifting of sanctions against Iran and, ultimately, the issue of leadership in the Islamic world. Experts told Novaya Gazeta what the Iranians and the Saudis did not share, what the likelihood of an armed conflict is, and what Russia should be worried about.

A long-standing confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia erupted into open conflict on January 2, when the Saudis executed 47 of their own citizens, including prominent Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr. Shiites, who make up no more than 15% of the Saudi population, dominate in Iran, and they responded to the execution of Nimr by destroying and setting fire to the Saudi embassy in Tehran. On January 3, the two countries severed diplomatic relations, and on the 7th, Arab coalition aircraft bombarded the Iranian embassy in Sana'a, the capital of civil war-torn Yemen, from the air.

Relations between the two powerful Muslim states have rarely been easy. First, for religious reasons: Iran is a Shiite country, while Saudi Arabia is Sunni. The very fact that Mecca is on the territory of the Saudis revolts the Iranians. Second, countries compete for leadership in the region. The Saudis supported Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war in the 80s, helped the Yemeni authorities to fight against the Houthis (Shia movement), who are believed to have the support of Iran.

Iran, in turn, supports the protest moods within the Shiite community of Saudi Arabia, which lives in the oil-rich eastern part of the country. Unlike Iran, Saudi Arabia has a long history of good relations with the United States, a vice in the eyes of the ayatollahs (even after the Iranian nuclear deal).

The execution of a prominent Shiite preacher could be a deliberate provocation on the part of the Saudis, who are dissatisfied with the rapid improvement in relations between the West and Iran, said Alexander Shumilin, director of the Center for the Analysis of Middle East Conflicts at the US and Canada Institute. “Saudi Arabia and Iran are the leaders of two opposing branches of Islam: Sunnism and Shiism. Now, in connection with the Syrian conflict, Iran has begun to score points: to get out of political and economic isolation: the country is participating in the Vienna talks on Syria for the first time, an agreement has been reached on the nuclear program, and sanctions are being lifted. Two days before the execution of Nimr, Iranian accounts in Europe were unfrozen, Iran received the first money for the sale of its oil.”

The rise of Iran worries the Saudis, Shumilin says: “It is increasing its interference in the internal affairs of other Arab states: in Syria (on the side of Assad), in Yemen, Bahrain, partly in Iraq. Iran supports and spurs the Shia communities, which are most often a minority, encouraging them to act against the authorities. It is known that Iranian agents are actively working to overthrow the Sunni government. In Bahrain, another Hezbollah cell was recently uncovered ( enjoys the support of Iran. — A. B.), which was involved in the organization of Shiite speeches.

Religious differences play a huge role in the life of Islamic states, which is often underestimated in the West. In this sense, the execution of Nimr was not even a provocation, but simply a logical and almost inevitable political step, Aleksey Malashenko, a member of the scientific council of the Carnegie Moscow Center, is sure: “The Muslim world is split, so why would the Saudis be happy to have this Nimr? If they had not executed him, they would have shown their weakness. They live in a religious consciousness and cannot get rid of it.”

Whether the execution was a deliberate provocation or not, it worked, Alexander Shumilin believes: “The Saudis decided to shift the focus of international attention from the Syrian crisis to the confrontation between Sunnis and Shiites as such, to the instigating role of Iran and to warn, reduce the activity of Tehran’s rapprochement with the West — from the point of in the Saudis' eyes, he made too many concessions to Iran. In political management, this is called blowing up the situation. The maneuver has succeeded, and now there is a mobilization of Sunni Arab countries around Saudi Arabia.”

If the tension reaches an open war between the two countries, the advantage, oddly enough, will be on the side of the less wealthy Iran, Sergey Seregichev, an associate professor at the Russian State Humanitarian University, believes: “Saudi Arabia’s strength is not based on military power: they have one of the most well-equipped armies in the region, but the combat capability is extremely low. Their tactic is to buy everyone: in Yemen, they just pay some tribe, and it retreats. Iran, on the other hand, has a powerful capable army, although it is equipped with old weapons: for a long time, the export of equipment to the country was closed due to sanctions. The fact that Assad’s troops held out until our arrival is due to Iran: according to one of my colleagues, almost half of the corps of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, twenty thousand people, are now fighting in Syria, although officially the Iranians say that there are not so many of them. Therefore, in a direct clash with the Saudis, Iran will stand.

The most risky scenario for an open war between Iran and Saudi Arabia could be the emergence of Shiite and Sunni nuclear powers, Aleksey Malashenko warns: “The Iranians can resume their nuclear program, and for the Saudis to get nuclear weapons is only a matter of money. Just imagine a situation when different Islamic nuclear weapons appear in the world: Shiite and Sunni. It will be a qualitatively different situation than now.”

One way or another, military confrontation is too dangerous for both parties to the conflict, so they are likely to limit themselves to diplomatic provocations, experts say. “The Iranians may start publishing some compromising evidence about the Fauda dynasty. And the Saudis can stop the lifting of sanctions on the Iranian nuclear deal,” Sergey Seregichev believes. “But it has already entered into force, the Iranians are fulfilling the conditions, and it is important for US President Obama to show the success of this agreement. So, without good reason, the lifting of sanctions will not be stopped. But Saudi Arabian intelligence can arrange a terrorist attack somewhere and try to blame it on the Iranians or provoke Tehran into terrorist attacks.”

Now the status of the leader of the Muslim world is at stake, and both countries are ready to pay dearly for it. Victory from Iran's point of view is a situation in which Obama says that the fate of Assad will be decided by the Syrian people, the Saudis stop supporting the rebel groups in Syria, Seregichev believes.

Victory from the point of view of Saudi Arabia looks like this: Iran refuses to participate in the wars in Syria and Yemen, stops supporting the Shiites in Bahrain and in the east of Saudi Arabia. Seregichev believes that the Saudis seek to disrupt the peace process in Syria, as a result of which they do not receive any benefits.

Russia, seeking to increase its influence in the Middle East and at the same time - around the world, acting as a peacemaker, may try to use the conflict to its advantage, but the chances are small, says Alexei Malashenko: “It is not yet clear that the Saudis are ready for Russian mediation. Especially since Russia supports Assad in Syria.”

Alexander Shumilin agrees with this forecast: “In the Sunni world, Russia is not perceived as a mediator, it is perceived as an ally of Iran. For us, this conflict does not change anything, except for the fact that now the Saudis have sharply strengthened the positions of the Sunni bloc and can insist on the participation in the Syrian process of those organizations that are unacceptable to Russia.”

In response to the execution of a Shiite imam, the Saudi Arabian (SA) embassy was smashed in Tehran. Direct threats were made against official Riyadh and directly from the lips of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei (Rahbar) about "imminent divine retribution". In response, Saudi Arabia announced on January 3 about with Tehran and threatened "wipe Iranian ayatollahs to ashes for a long tongue". Well, what can you do - traditions: such is the diplomatic language of communication in the Middle East. You have to always read between the lines.

Saudi Arabia's "little friends" hurried to show their solidarity: Bahrain has already managed to withdraw its ambassadors from Tehran, thus sending a clear signal to the leadership of Iran (IRI).

It is worth noting that the execution of a Shiite imam fits perfectly into the internal "norms and laws" in the SA. The kingdom has cruel Sharia norms, and in terms of its internal political structure, Saudi Arabia is almost no different from the "reality" that prevails on the territory of the so-called "Islamic State". Unless they try not to shoot executions on video. Everyone turned a blind eye to this in Washington for a long time, but the role of an ally in the Middle East for the White House, from the point of view of national interests, was justifiably the most important.

Photo: operationworld.org

Let's try to figure out why the escalation in relations between the two Islamic countries is so dangerous and what it can develop into.

The history of the confrontation in the Persian Gulf is a mini-copy of the "cold war" with bipolar rivalry, only Iran and Saudi Arabia play the role of the USSR and the United States, around which allies-satellites "crowd".

Military confrontation has been brewing for a long time, but it never reaches it. The Islamic Republic was recently only held back, which was finally concluded this summer, despite discontent from Saudi Arabia and Israel.

A small prehistory of the battles between the Iranian ayatollahs and the Arab "turbans".

Due to its uniqueness, the Persian Gulf is a strategically incredibly important region of the globe: it is here that the lion's share of all energy resources in the world is concentrated. Control over the region makes it possible to bathe in petrodollars not only of the "owners" of the countries of the region, but also of their allies, friends and "patrons".

World oil prices are de facto determined in the Arabian Peninsula and in the countries of the neighboring Persian Gulf region, and this fact will remain unchanged in the near future. , obviously, can play into the hands of only one side - Russia. In order to prevent this, it is necessary now to nip in the bud the possible variants of a military confrontation. And it was even better to do it yesterday.

The Saudis and the eternal "vassal satellites" (Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait) together could always dictate Iran's oil pricing policy, thereby actually minimizing oil revenues to the Iranian budget, which are the most important factor in the Iranian economy. After the gradual lifting of sanctions, Iranian oil flowed around the world, thereby causing natural irritation among the sheikhs of the Arabian Peninsula.

Today we are witnessing another "boiling point" in the Middle East, the main reason for which is the formation and confrontation of two eternal warring poles - Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran.

History shows that everything that is happening now has happened in Iranian-Arab relations before.

The hatred between Tehran and Riyadh began long before the execution of an unknown Shiite cleric Sheikh. Yes, and not in it lies the "apple of discord". He was just a pawn on a chessboard. Let us compare him with Gavrilo Princip before the First World War: a small man - global problems.

Nimr Bakr al-Nimr. Photo: AR

The Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia over the past decades have been very difficult to tolerate and get along with each other. Both states claim the role of a regional leader in the Islamic world. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, whose Arab population professes Sunni Islam, is a conservative Wahhabi monarchy, which is closely connected with allied relations with the United States. At the same time, Iran is the most Shiite republic in the Islamic world, which emerged as a result of the anti-monarchist and "anti-Western" revolution of 1979. It seems that these countries have nothing in common except "love for black gold."

Tehran, a longtime nemesis of Saudi Arabia. Back in the time of Ayatollah Khomeini, Tehran tried to create in the Middle East the so-called "Shia crescent" (territories where Shiites compactly live from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean). The late "old fox" Abdullah foresaw that the realization of this idea would be a disaster for the entire region.

Iran's geopolitical ambitions to form a "Shia crescent" over the past decades have been hysterical among the Arab monarchies of the Arabian Peninsula, who are accustomed to living "in grand style and driving around in golden Bentleys" through the bustling streets of London. One way or another, the Saudi sheikhs in white, one way or another, assigned all their forces to an open and latent fight against Iran, which, according to the Arabs, finances Shiite "terrorism" in the Middle East region and threatens the very essence of monarchical regimes.

It is more than clear that the task of Saudi Arabia, as one of the poles in the region, is to prevent the creation of a Shiite coalition of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain (here the Sunni minority rules the Shiite majority) led by Iran. In addition, we should not forget the fact that a significant part of the Shiites (15%) live in the kingdom, which, even for such a centralized country, can become a destabilizing factor if they are supported by Iran.

Photo: biyokulule.com

In addition, the start of the war in Syria, where the Saudis are in opposition, has caused significant damage to attempts to somehow improve bilateral relations. The civil war in Yemen added fuel to the fire, where Tehran and Riyadh again support different camps. Clearly, the military intervention of Saudi Arabia in Bahrain, which is gripped against the background of the "Arab spring" by the protests of the Shiite population, which opposed the ruling Sunni royal house, clearly did not contribute to the improvement of bilateral relations.

The struggle of the "two whales" for regional dominance is currently being played out through proxy wars in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and now Yemen.

Photo: meri-k.org

With the UAE today, statements are even tougher than with Riyadh. Yes, this is not surprising. Sheikhs from Dubai have long wanted to repay "an eye for an eye" to the impudent Iranians, who took away their tasty morsel. In recent years, there has been a new aggravation of the long-standing dispute between Iran and the UAE. Official representatives of the kingdom, with the support of the SA, demand the return of three disputed islands that occupy a strategically important position in the Persian Gulf. We are talking about the islands of Abu Musa, Big Tomb and Little Tomb, located at the outlet of the Persian Gulf in the Strait of Ormouth. Their location has long made them strategically important, especially today, when up to 30-40% of all world oil exports pass through this region. Iranian garrisons and naval bases are also located on the islands, from which missile, torpedo boats and submarines can operate.

FINDINGS

The conflict for power, spheres of influence and resources can develop into a bloody inter-religious "mess". Unfortunately, the bloody massacre will not cost only the Middle East region. Terrorist attacks and shooting will definitely not bypass African countries, Central Asia, and even Europe, where today the proportion of Muslims has increased significantly due to the influx of migrants. Where Muslims live, there is a high probability of a bloody confrontation.

Thus, geopolitical interests, religious sectarianism and ethnicity form a dangerous mixture in the Middle East. And since history has shown that without military intervention, neither a solution nor even a containment of such conflicts is possible, regional leaders will have to deal with each other on their own, which is much easier said than done.

And this would not be desirable. The world has more than enough of the Islamic State. The emergence of a conflict on a larger scale, the planet may simply not withstand.

The Middle East certainly does not need a nuclear arms race now, much less religious hatred, as well as a foreign policy based on military interventions. On the contrary, the region, like air, needs sufficient endurance to sit down together and agree, as well as to develop a system of collective security that would meet the legitimate interests of all parties involved.

The only hope in this conflict lies with the White House, which can still "reason" both sides that have "sharpened" their daggers, sit down at the negotiating table and return to dialogue. Perhaps Barack Obama will remember his "advance" Nobel Prize and avert the threat of a new war.

Without diplomacy and a willingness to work towards viable mutual agreements, as happened recently with the Iran negotiation agreement, the new Middle East will remain a powder keg of world politics, and therefore a source of instability around the world.