An anomalous phenomenon or a whim of nature: climatologists have named the causes of a cold summer. Winter will warm Causes of abnormal weather changes

Spring and the long-awaited summer brought almost no pleasure to the Russians. Vacation plans were ruined by abnormal weather conditions. Incessant downpours, hurricanes, record lows and vice versa heat brought confusion to the inhabitants of almost all regions of Russia. What happened to the climate? What will be the summer of 2018 - weather forecasts

On May 29, 2017, a severe storm occurred in Moscow and the Moscow region. The wind speed reached 28 m/s in some places. According to statistics, this is the most heavy storm since 1904. As a result of the violence of the elements, 18 people died and 170 were injured. How did events develop?

The weather was determined by a moving cyclone coming from the Gulf of Finland. Moscow was in the warm part. The air temperature reached 25 °C.

Along with the wind came thunder, downpour and hail. Dropped out in a short amount of time most of monthly rate precipitation (31 mm). Fixed hailstones measuring 6mm.

In some areas the wind was blowing at a speed of 20 m/s. Several automatically operating weather stations located in the central part of Moscow recorded a speed of 30 m/s.

In the evening the elements calmed down.

Consequences of the Moscow hurricane 2017

1. Electricity was out in 300 settlements(more than 16,000 buildings, 1,500 dachas).
2. Broken 27,000 trees. Some grew in protected natural parks.
3. The roofs of more than 200 multi-storey buildings were damaged.
4. 2,000 vehicles damaged.
5. A strong wind partially or completely destroyed historical monuments: monastery tombstones, the roof of the Senate Palace, the Church of the Nativity of the Virgin.
6. Fallen trees made it difficult to move along the railroad tracks.

According to the city authorities, a total damage of 25,000,000 rubles was caused.

No signs of trouble. The element played out in a matter of moments. What was happening was like a large wind tunnel. The wind constrained by high-rise buildings high speed rushed along long streets, avenues and highways, demolishing everything that came across on the way.

Reasons for cold weather in 2017

The weather began to deteriorate in early May. The first days were marked by snowfalls, moreover, they were observed throughout Russia.

1. The Perm Territory was the first to experience the vagaries of nature. On May 7, 100 mm of snow fell in Kungur, Bershet, Kukushtan, Yanychi. Snowfalls took place in the Sverdlovsk region.
2. On May 8, snow was seen in Surgut and KhAO. The most difficult was the situation in Tomsk. In the morning, a warning was received about a possible wind increase to 23m/s. Trees were knocked down, wires were cut, a forest fire started. The wind and rain did not stop even on May 9th. On the 11th, a storm warning was issued.
3. On May 8, snow fell in Murmansk.
4. 3 days (May 8-10) rain with snow came to the capital and the region. in some places snow cover reached 20 cm. During this time, 80% of the monthly precipitation fell.
5. On May 9, instead of the festive fireworks of the inhabitants of Kaliningrad and Kaliningrad region snow was expected.
6. The inhabitants of the Irkutsk region had to deal with capricious weather. In the morning the sun shone brightly, then the wind appeared, it began to rain. By evening, the rain became stronger, more snow.
7. On May 10, snowdrifts were recorded in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region.

Since the beginning of summer, the situation has not changed much. warm days were replaced by rain, wind and not summer coolness. The temperature rarely rose above 17 °C.

In the following months, there were no hurricanes or snowfalls, but the weather did not please Muscovites with warmth. In July, two cyclones passed, bringing rain and wind. Short-term warming was replaced by another drop in temperature (15-17 °C). And so on throughout the summer.

According to weather forecasters, capricious weather should not be surprised. Similarity of snow was seen in early June 2016. Cooling was recorded in 2001/2008. True, the temperature is fixed a couple of degrees higher.

At the same time, the Urals and Siberia suffered from abnormal heat. The thermometers sometimes showed 30-31 °C. This provoked an increase in the level of fire danger. For example, in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, he reached the maximum fifth grade.

According to scientists, in such weather, the weakest lightning strike could provoke large-scale fires.

In many areas, the heat was abruptly replaced by thunderstorms, downpours, and heavy winds.

How to explain what happened?

Causes of abnormal weather changes

Meteorologists identify several reasons for a sharp change in climatic conditions.

1. Strong heating of the planet. It is known that air envelope The earth has several layers. The mesosphere and a few others got too hot. The result is a decrease in air temperature. According to many meteorologists, we should not talk about global warming, but about global cooling.
2. Satellite launch. A Chinese satellite called "Mao Tzu" flew into space. Why did it arouse the strongest interest? This is the first device to use new technology quantum data transfer. The first tests passed with flying colors. Later it was noticed that during the operation of the satellite in earth's atmosphere the level of air ions (gas particles) rises. They influence the weather, leading to the appearance of rains and hurricanes. Monopoles have also been found in the stratosphere. The last mention of them refers to 1816, which was marked by the eruption of the Tambora volcano.
3. North Atlantic bloc. So scientists call an anticyclone. A ridge appeared in the troposphere high pressure blocking the free movement of air from west to east. Now it is observed over the territory of Great Britain, which is why cold Arctic air enters Russia.

These factors affect the weather. But the result of influence is the same - abnormal heat or cold.

Forecasts are of interest to many Russians. What to expect in the future? How will winter, spring, summer, autumn 2018 go? What weather is expected, habitual or abnormal?

According to meteorologists, the coming winter differs little from winter in the classical sense. sudden drops in temperature and severe frosts not expected. Only on Epiphany and Christmas will the thermometers drop down.

Spring 2018, unlike winter, is full of unpleasant surprises. The weather is expected to be unstable. Anticyclones/cyclones will change each other unusually quickly, which will lead to alternating clear sunny and frosty days.

Forecasts for the upcoming 2018 weather forecasters are making cautious. This is especially true in summer. According to scientists, the highest temperature will come in August. In June-July, the weather will resemble spring. Moreover, it is expected heavy rains with thunderstorms.

The weather is unpredictable. As seen from latest developments, it can change almost instantly. There are many reasons and they are not always rooted in natural processes, for example, overheating of the planet or the movement of cyclones / anticyclones. Often what is happening is the result of human activity (launching satellites, deforestation.). It is necessary to prepare for any turn of events. It is worth remembering that any time of the year is beautiful in its own way, regardless of snowy winter This, blooming spring, bright autumn, hot summer. According to a famous song, nature has no bad weather. The main thing is to treat her correctly.

In the next 10 years, the climate is likely to be undulating, with frequent shifts higher and more low temperatures. About it " Russian newspaper" said the head of the Hydrometeorological Center Roman Vilfand, answering the question: "What is happening with the weather in Central Russia, and will we have summer this year?"

"AT climatic characteristics now volatility prevails, explains Vilfand. - Climatologists attribute this to global warming. First of all, the high latitudes are warming and the temperature difference between the equator and the poles is decreasing. It seems like if it goes global warming, then the air temperature should rise everywhere. But in fact, this leads to other processes - namely, to undulating changes.

As the chief weather forecaster of the country explains, if for our latitudes the west-east transfer was always familiar air masses, now such air circulation has been established that cold arctic winds often blow towards us. And this situation, unfortunately, may be repeated over the next 10 years.

"Normal average temperatures will be less, but the alternation of rainy and dry periods will increase," explains Vilfand. It is also possible that anomalous warm winters and frosts in summer.

As for the nearest summer prospects for residents of Central Russia, then, according to the head of the Hydrometeorological Center, July still promises to please Muscovites and residents of the central regions warm weather, which will be several degrees higher than the norm. And even complete bathing season will be able to open. True, while the water temperature in Moscow and Moscow region reservoirs does not exceed 14 degrees. Such water will be enjoyed only by very hardened people.

The next week, as Lyudmila Parshina, head of the laboratory of the Hydrometeorological Center, told RG, moderately warm weather is expected in the capital region. Daytime temperatures will fluctuate within 22-24 degrees, night -10-12 degrees. Rains are possible.

As for other Russian regions, the temperature background is different everywhere - up to 40-degree heat, as in Novosibirsk, Tomsk, Kemerovo regions and in the Altai Territory, to night frosts, as in the Murmansk region.

The alternation of rains and droughts will become more frequent. Abnormally warm winters and frosts in summer possible

In the south of Russia, in the Stavropol Territory and in most republics North Caucasus, in Chechnya, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria wind increase up to 20 meters per second, daily temperatures will not exceed 26 degrees. Eastern Ciscaucasia will be in warmer air - there will be up to 28 degrees during the day. On the Black Sea coast- 20-25 degrees. At the beginning of the week the weather will improve. It will warm up to 28 degrees on the Black Sea coast, up to 30 degrees in the Sochi region. The Black Sea warmed up to 22-23 degrees.

xl" target="_blank">an abnormally cold summer. As always in such cases, global warming is blamed for everything. The RIAMO correspondent talked to experts and found out what is really happening with the climate in Moscow and the Moscow region.

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The ghost of global warming

The term "global warming" itself appeared in 1975: it was mentioned by Wallace Broker in an article on climate change trends as a result of anthropogenic factors. These trends are constantly monitored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. And the Kyoto Protocol, signed at the UN conference in 1997, is designed to minimize greenhouse gas emissions by participating countries. Therefore, on the one hand, climate change on Earth is under international control.

On the other hand, global climate processes raise questions among ordinary inhabitants of the planet, and in particular, the Moscow region. Since the world is experiencing global warming - then why is the beginning of summer in the capital region so cold?

However, experts say that the climate is not an area where it is worth drawing superficial conclusions, despite obvious changes.

Yury Varakin, head of the situational center of Roshydromet, emphasizes that in order to confirm or deny that certain changes are taking place in the climate, it is necessary to monitor the situation for years, and the climate “step” is thirty years. Based on observational data for thirty years, statistical indicators are derived: averages per day or per certain date, average daily temperature or Maximum temperature, which has been observed for thirty years, etc.

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Moscow and Moscow region - in the comfort zone

Moscow and the Moscow region are prosperous regions compared to those places where fires, droughts or floods are happening right now.

“We do not have such natural disasters as in Central and South Asia. Every year, thousands of people die from floods, not because a tree fell on their heads, but because houses are blown away as a result of a tropical downpour. Now there is an abnormal heat wave in Japan: several children have died of heat stroke, hundreds of people with overheating are in hospitals,” says Yuri Varakin.

However, the coldness with which this summer began can be explained by the same global processes, which is the riot of the elements in other places on the planet.

According to research by the Hydrometeorological Center, the reason for the recurrence of very cold and hot periods, dry and rainy periods is that the temperature on the planet rises unevenly.

“In the equatorial territories, warming is less noticeable than at the poles, and as a result, the temperature difference between them is decreasing. This temperature difference between the equator and the pole is the basis for the emergence of circulation in the atmosphere,” explains Roman Vilfand, director of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center.

According to forecasters, the processes in the atmosphere are slowing down.

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Human factor

However, all climatic anomalies and natural Disasters, what in recent times occur on the territory of Russia, in addition to global ones, there are quite local reasons.

Pollution of rivers, siltation of reservoirs, huge dumps garbage - all this contributes to the fact that the consequences of the revelry of the elements were more severe. Experts believe that sometimes the precipitation itself is not so terrible as its consequences due to purely economic problems and the human factor.

He adds that in the conditions of a metropolis, where heating mains and communications pass under the asphalt, trees cannot live more than 60-70 years, their root system is destroyed and the tree dries up.

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The myth of long-range forecasts

Forecasters say that forecasts should always be made with great care: the longer the forecast period, the less reliable it is. Seven to ten days is the maximum period, and on its last dates the probability of an error increases significantly.

Despite this, the Hydrometeorological Center has a special department of long-range weather forecasts that compiles data for the season, but its method of work is based on statistical modeling for the analogous year.

“Suppose we need to develop a forecast for two months: we take the results of observations at a given point six months ago and, according to certain criteria, look for what is called an “analogue year”. That is, they are looking for a year in which, like ours now, February was very cold, and March and April were above the climatic norm. Then they look at what, for example, August was that year. And on the basis of this, they predict what the current August will be like. But this does not take into account what was August or March-April on another continent or in southern hemisphere. It is possible that these things affect the climate in our country. Therefore, such models are scientific, but they are not enough for us yet, ”says Alexander Sinenkov, weather forecaster on duty at the Phobos weather center.

Be that as it may, according to Andrei Skvortsov, in the near future, residents of the Moscow region can still hope for good weather.

“In the next week, we will have about the same thing as now, up to plus 18-22 degrees, then rain, then the sun. The cyclone is standing - it will turn its cold side, then it will turn warm. But towards the end next week this construction can collapse - and to us heat will come", - the expert notes.

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Why is the summer of 2017 so cold? Spring and summer this year have already been called "abnormally cold", and scientists have proposed a hypothesis that explains such unusually cool weather. According to them, the "climate catastrophe" affected not only Russia, but also many other regions of the world.

Provocateurs of sharp weather changes can be called orbital quantum satellites, the launch of which is controlled by China, the researchers said. Their opinion was published by VladTime.

Recall that in August last year, China launched the first near-Earth satellite for quantum experiments. In January 2017, testing of its equipment was completed, and the satellite was transferred to in-orbit operation. Experts believe that there is equipment on board that affects the weather conditions on the planet.

Scientists said that during the operation of the satellite, a failure could occur, which provoked a sharp increase in the level of negative air ions, which led to climate fluctuations on Earth. At the same time, in their opinion, the concentration of air ions should soon stabilize, thereby contributing to the balance in the weather.

Forecasters in their forecasts for the summer noted that the weather would be unstable and extreme, with sharp changes in heat and cold.