When heat comes to the middle Urals. We will freeze in June: the chief forecaster of the Uralhydrometeorological center said that summer is being postponed. Scientist of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences: what to expect from the weather this summer and in the coming years

The Hydrometeorological Center of Russia made a forecast for six months ahead - for all the warm months, from April to September 2018.

Forecasters give such preliminary forecasts annually, but they call them probabilistic. Unlike the usual weather forecasts for the coming days, here they predict not temperature or rain, but deviations from climatic norms. Where it will be warmer, and where it will be colder than usual, where it will be too damp, and where it will be dry. And, of course, these norms are different for each region - an ordinary summer in Sochi and an equally ordinary one in Murmansk are completely different from each other.

Forecasts for such a long period are justified by approximately 70%, the Russian Hydrometeorological Center warns.

In general, the warm half-year in Russia is expected to be quite normal and normal - with temperatures and precipitation within the normal range. But this is an average.

And what should residents of different regions prepare for? In the forecast for each month, we indicate only the territories where unusual weather conditions are expected, where weather forecasters predict deviations from climatic norms.

APRIL

Very warm spring weather will be established in the north-west of Russia: in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, the Pskov region, the Kaliningrad region, on the Kola Peninsula. April will also be warmer than climatic norms in many regions of the Krasnoyarsk Territory and Yakutia.

It is very dry - in the Crimea, Rostov and Kursk regions, as well as in the Arctic - from Naryan-Mar to Tiksi, in the Magadan region, in Kamchatka.

Rainy April is expected in the Volga region and the Urals: in Astrakhan, Samara, Volgograd, Kazan, Ufa, Yekaterinburg, Perm, Chelyabinsk. More precipitation than expected according to climatic norms will also go to many Siberian regions: Novosibirsk, Barnaul, Krasnoyarsk, Yakutsk.

Unusual heat in May will delight residents of the northern regions: from Arkhangelsk and Syktyvkar to Perm, Salekhar and Khanty-Mansiysk.

Dry May - in the center of the Ural Federal District (in Yekaterinburg, Perm, Khanty-Mansiysk, Surgut), as well as in the Amur Region.

A very wet month awaits the Murmansk region, part of Karelia and the Arkhangelsk region, the south of the Volga region - Volgograd and Astrakhan, the Irkutsk region, the Khabarovsk Territory, Primorye, Sakhalin.

JUNE

An abnormally warm beginning of summer is expected only in the Far North, from Naryan-Mar to Khatanga.

Precipitation deficit in June - in Siberia, from Khatanga in the north to Yeniseisk in the south, and also in the Amur region.

Rainy June forecasters promise in the middle lane: in Moscow, Tula, Kursk, Nizhny Novgorod; as well as in the Irkutsk region and in part of Magadan.

JULY

Hotter than usual July will be in many Volga and Ural regions: Tatarstan, Udmurtia, Bashkortostan, Perm Territory, Sverdlovsk Region, Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, Tyumen Region.

Dry land - in some areas of the Krasnoyarsk and Khabarovsk Territories.

Wet mid-summer is expected in the south of the Ural Federal District, in Transbaikal and the Magadan region.

AUGUST

An abnormally hot August can happen in the center of the Siberian Federal District: Krasnoyarsk, Kemerovo, Bratsk, Tomsk, Ust-Ilimsk...

Dry in Transbaikalia and Primorye. Residents of the Omsk and Novosibirsk regions, as well as Altai, will meet the rains in autumn.

Residents of the Sverdlovsk region are tired of cold weather and gloomy skies. And for the next few days, the weather forecast is disappointing: the air temperature will be significantly below the climatic norm. When will the heat finally come? The Regional Newspaper decided to find out about this from the chief forecaster of the Uralhydrometeorological center Galina SHEPORENKO.

– Galina Andriyanovna, to what will be the first month, so to speak, of summer?

- The first decade of the first summer month will also be cold. But there is hope that real summer will come in the second decade of June. However, I cannot confidently give a forecast for such a long period.

- What explains such a long cold weather in May?

- This is how the circulation of atmospheric flows developed. Cold Arctic air from the northern territories very often entered the Middle Urals. And the heat accumulates in the south of the European part and does not move towards us.

- How often do such unfortunate, in terms of weather, years happen?

- Infrequently. But a complete analogy is always very difficult to find. The weather does not repeat itself, every year it is different and brings unexpected surprises. At the same time, in Yekaterinburg, the average monthly temperature in May is only one degree below the norm. And the precipitation in May fell within the normal range. A characteristic feature of this May is that there was no increase in heat in the second half of the month, as is usually the case. In addition, there are often frosts. Therefore, this year, farmers in the Middle Urals started agricultural work late. And besides, and because the earth, as they say, did not ripen in time. The winter was not snowy, and the soil froze deeper than usual, and thawed for a very long time. Moisture stagnated. Therefore, there are serious concerns about whether the harvest will have time to ripen this summer.

By the way

According to the Russian Hydrometeorological Center, during the current working week, under the influence of cyclones and atmospheric fronts in the Urals and Western Siberia, it will be rainy and very windy. A powerful cyclonic vortex centered over the Northern Urals will bring heavy rains on May 31 to the Sverdlovsk and Kurgan regions. In the Sverdlovsk region during the day it is no higher than plus 10 degrees, at night the temperature can drop to zero.

Many people look forward to summer, which brings warm days and an opportunity to enjoy an active lifestyle. At the same time, Russians are used to taking vacations for the summer months, focusing on the weather forecast. At the same time, the hot season can be devoted to tourist trips, beach holidays, pastime in the country.

Recently, more and more people are asking what the summer of 2018 will be like in the Urals. Without a doubt, it is impossible to make a reliable weather forecast for every day, but at the same time, people have the right to know approximate trends to determine weather conditions.

General forecast
Forecasters are in no hurry to please the inhabitants of the Urals with forecasts. It is believed that in 2018 there will be quite a lot of rainy days. At the same time, real heat with very high temperatures is not expected.

Next summer promises to be mild, not hot. The only exception can be the last summer month, namely August. At this time, you will be able to enjoy truly summer weather. On some days, you will be able to feel the real heat, thanks to which all plans for outdoor recreation can be translated into reality.

June forecast
One of the most important superstitions has long been associated with the very first day of June. If the first day is warm, then the following summer months will be the same. If the weather is cool and rainy, the following summer will upset with low temperatures and heavy rainfall. In fact, it is difficult to say how true such a weather forecast is. In order to confirm it, you need to survive the summer of 2018.

Forecasters are confident that June will start with rain. At the same time, the air temperature will not exceed 20 degrees Celsius. Only from the second decade will warming begin and the rains will become less plentiful and prolonged. The end of the month may be more sunny: the sky will periodically clear up and the thermometer will even show 25 degrees Celsius. Despite this gradual improvement in weather conditions, the heat should not be expected. It can be assumed that the weather in the Urals for the summer of 2018 from the Hydrometeorological Center will be unstable, so the end of June will again be rainy.

July forecast
Forecasters say that the middle of summer will delight with beautiful weather. Hot days should alternate with rainy ones, but the month will not be too suffocating or damp. The most comfortable weather is guaranteed, so all people will be able to enjoy the time and take care of the implementation of their plans.

Partly cloudy in early July. In addition, periodic precipitation is predicted, and in some places - showers and thunderstorms. Despite such forecasts, the rains will leave quickly. In addition, the wind promises to be mild. The weather will be quite warm.

The second decade will already please with hot weather. The clouds will go away for a while. This sunny weather can last for about two weeks, so this period will be ideal for a holiday.

Only at the end of July will the rainy period begin again with showers. In this case, the air temperature will be about 30 degrees. It can be assumed that this period will bring not only freshness, but also higher humidity, as a result of which weather-sensitive people will suffer from drops.

August forecast
Being interested in what the summer of 2018 will be like in the Urals, you need to find out what the weather conditions will be like in the last summer month. This period promises to please lovers of sunny and sultry weather.

The air will warm up to 33 - 35 degrees. At the same time, the rains will again give way to the sun. It is on such days that you can fully enjoy an active lifestyle, walks, pastime in the flowering and picturesque nature of the Urals.

At the beginning of the third decade, the rainy period will begin again. At the same time, the rains will become long and mournful, reminding that autumn is approaching. Despite this, the end of August and summer will still please with quite warm weather, as the air warms up to 25 degrees.

The snow that fell in the Middle Urals and the anomalous cold that did not go away with the spring caused a mass death of swifts in early June. The case in history is not the first and, unfortunately, not the last - the weather in the Urals does not bode well yet: once again a storm warning has been announced. But the patterns of recent years predict a warm July.

Sorry birds!

The beginning of the Ural summer was unexpected for the inhabitants of the Middle Urals: in the early morning on Children's Day, snow fell unconventionally for the region, and the air temperature was 7 degrees below normal. Social networks were full of photos of snow-covered yards, streets and cars from different regions of the Sverdlovsk region, and posts with numerous jokes in the spirit of: “There was no spring, there will not be summer”, “Everything you need to know about the Ural summer” and so on. Unfortunately, not only sad jokes were marked by the coming cold, but also by the mass death of birds - swifts.

In many areas, eyewitnesses observed a terrible picture: tiny hundreds of swifts fell dead to the ground. "Apocalypse" was observed in Yekaterinburg, Revda and on the highway near Nizhny Tagil, where helpless birds fell right under the wheels of passing cars.

If lovers of conspiracy traditionally tried to build the next versions of the “foreshadowing of the apocalypse”, then scientists explained the death of birds precisely by abnormally cold weather in the Middle Urals. Moreover, the dependence turned out to be not direct, but associated with the absence of flying insects due to cold day and night. “From hunger, swifts quickly get tired and fall to the ground. This is how their mass death can be explained. And this is not the first case with a similar outcome: this happened in July 2014, when there was a prolonged cooling,” notes Nina Sadykova, Researcher at the Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The expert says that some of the nomadic swifts managed to leave the cold region, flying to the heat, but some were doomed to death and, most likely, will die. It is possible that the Urals will have to observe the “apocalyptic” picture more than once, because weather forecasters admit that the spring and early summer of 2018 turned out to be abnormally cold.

The instability in the weather is associated with the Arctic anticyclones that came to the region: only in May they passed through the territory of the Ural region four times. Forecasters say that until June 12, the weather will still unpleasantly surprise the residents of the Sverdlovsk region, but in general, summer is expected to be no worse than last year. “During the day the temperature will be 18-23 degrees Celsius, at night -9-14. But throughout the month there will be cold and warm periods. The average temperature in July is 17-19 degrees Celsius, within the normal range,” says leading forecaster of the Uralhydrometeorological center Galina Sheporenko.

ON A NOTE

"Shifts" in the weather

The pre-summer cooling in the Urals actually looks like an anomaly. This is recognized by scientists of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, who note that this happens once every 20 years. “This was observed in 1999, and for the XXI century it is really the coldest spring. If we analyze on the scale of a century, then it did not break the record for the lowest average monthly temperature - 1.6 degrees Celsius, while this figure is 1.2 degrees, ”says Rishat Khantemirov, Leading Researcher at the Dendrochronology Laboratory of the Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

According to the observations of the specialist, for 10 days (from May 26 to June 3) the air temperature was 7-10 degrees below the average. But this does not give reason to say that the climate is changing, all the more dramatically. In simple terms, it's just a cold spring and a cold start to summer. The weather is changing as part of natural variability as a result of warming in recent decades. “The only thing I have noticed over the past 10 years is that in 2014 and 2016 August was 2 degrees warmer than July. This was not the case before. Whether this is a trend or not, it is too early to say,” Khantemirov notes.

As the scientist notes, July 2018 is likely to be warm - this is another pattern that a specialist in the field of dendrochronology has come to. “I noticed that when the cold March passes, then, as a rule, July happens to be warmer than usual. Who knows if this pattern will continue, but I can’t give other explanations,” concludes Rishat Khantemirov.

At the end of the first spring month, another weather forecast for the next six months appeared on the website of the main meteorological service of our country. It covers the period from April to September of the current year and is official for all sensitive public services. The main purpose of periodic long-term weather forecasting is to reduce the risk of unforeseen climatic surprises from our mother nature. For example, the possibility of drought or an abundance of precipitation is analyzed by departments and enterprises associated with the production of agricultural products, and the risk of fire hazards is taken under control by the Russian Emergencies Ministry. In addition, the forecasts of the Hydrometeorological Center are also in demand by ordinary citizens, they are happy to study them and take note. What summer will be in 2018 in the Urals - will the air temperature in the coming season come to its usual long-term indicators, what is the probability that the summer period will be rainy, as well as experts' forecasts for the upcoming season, we will discuss in this article. I would like to immediately warn that the Hydrometeorological Center itself estimates the probability of its forecasts at no more than 70%.

What will be the last spring month in the Urals this year?

The May climate situation in the Urals in 2018 promises to be much friendlier and more comfortable than a year ago. A large area of ​​the region will please its residents with warm spring weather with the usual air temperature for this time of year. In the northern regions will be even a little warmer than usual.

On average, the temperature indicators of this region will correspond to the May climate norms, and look like this:

• in Yekaterinburg - from +5.5 to +16.9 degrees;
• in Kurgan - from +5.9 to +18.9 degrees;
• in Salekhard — from +2.0 to +5.6 degrees;
• in Tyumen - from +4.4 to +16.6 degrees;
• in Khanty-Mansiysk - from +1.5 to +11.7 degrees;
• in Chelyabinsk - from +6.2 to +18.4 degrees.

Approximately the same picture with average temperature indicators was observed last year. The amount of precipitation in the region, like a year ago, will approach the usual norms of the May period, and in the northern regions of the Tyumen region, it will even lag a little behind the usual indicators.

What June is expected in the Urals this year

The first summer month in the region compared to June 2017 will be characterized by a large abundance of precipitation, otherwise no major changes are expected - the air temperature will remain within the normal range for the beginning of summer, and only in the Salekhard area will be slightly higher than usual .

The temperature picture in some areas of the region will look like this:

• in Yekaterinburg - from +10.9 to +22.0 degrees;
• in Kurgan - from +11.4 to +23.8 degrees;
• in Salekhard — from +3.7 to +12.3 degrees;
• in Tyumen - from +10.3 to +22.2 degrees;
• in Khanty-Mansiysk - from +9.5 to +19.1 degrees;
• in Chelyabinsk - from +11.5 to +22.8 degrees.

In terms of precipitation, the north-west of the Urals will take the lead - the climatic situation in Perm and the northern regions of the Sverdlovsk region will basically be the same as in the entire region, but in terms of the abundance of rains it will exceed the average standard value.

What will be the summer in the Urals in 2018 - what will please the inhabitants of the region in July

In July, the Urals expect high air temperatures with heavy rains. In most of the region, from the southern regions (Kurgan, Chelyabinsk) to the northern Ural territories (Surgut, Khanty-Mansiysk), hot weather will set in at the height of summer. This month, the air will warm up to 25 degrees, which will exceed the norm by several points, and only in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and some northern regions will the temperature be within the usual limits.

The following temperatures are expected in large settlements of the district:

• in Yekaterinburg - from +13.8 to +24.0 degrees;
• in Kurgan - from +14.1 to +25.7 degrees;
• in Salekhard — from +9.5 to +19.4 degrees;
• in Tyumen - from +13.3 to +24.1 degrees;
• in Khanty-Mansiysk - from +13.7 to +23.0 degrees;
• in Chelyabinsk - from +14.2 to +24.5 degrees.

In most parts of the Ural region, a slight excess of the monthly rainfall is expected, and the situation with rains in the north of the Urals will be quite typical for this period.

What will summer be like in 2018 in the Urals - what will the last summer month bring to the region?

Forecasters do not predict any serious deviations from the annual norms in this region. The average level of precipitation and temperature regime will fully comply with the normative values ​​of mid-summer. In a word, August does not prepare any serious surprises for the population of the Urals. During the month, the following temperature will remain in the region:

• in Yekaterinburg - from +11.0 to +20.7 degrees;
• in Kurgan - from +10.8 to +22.4 degrees;
• in Salekhard — from +6.5 to +15.3 degrees;
• in Tyumen - from +10.4 to +20.7 degrees;
• in Khanty-Mansiysk - from +9.7 to +18.5 degrees;
• in Chelyabinsk - from +11.4 to +21.5 degrees.

To the east of the Urals, in particular, to the Kurgan region and Tyumen, August will bring heavy rains.