Russia and Ukraine: Scenarios for the development of the situation. How events will develop in Libya and Syria: opinions

23.09.2019

First of all, let's immediately denote the current state. Third World War will not start with any development of events, since China is not involved in this batch. All Russian scarers of the world war are cunning, it will not start even if Putin arrives in tanks in Lvov. Neither the EU nor NATO, and even more so Barack Obama, are not ready for a war with Russia without the participation of China. To give world leadership to this giant, destroying each other, is the most insane step that the US administration will never take, they are far from fools there.

Under any circumstances, Russia will be accused of all mortal sins, whether Ukraine collapses or simply defaults, Moscow and VV Putin personally will be the culprit. Russia has already swallowed the bait in the form of Crimea, Russia is already an aggressor and an occupier, whatever one may say, in the coming decades Russia has been turned for Western Ukraine and the whole of Eastern Europe into a dangerous aggressive neighbor. Millions of Ukrainians will yearn for revenge, hate Moscow fiercely and prepare for a "liberation" war.

The only thing that the Western ideologists of this entire “orange Euro-Ukraine” fear is the introduction of Russian troops. No matter what political technologists shout about forcibly drawing Russia into this war, know this is a bluff. Talk about the fact that the United States “sleeps and sees” Russia drawn into the war is a subtle deceitful game, the goal is the opposite in no case to allow the operation “peace enforcement”. Otherwise, everything will collapse. All created, artificial, and at the moment fragile, construction of Euromaidan, nurtured for decades, will collapse, burying the idea of dismembering the Russian World for many years to come.

Well-fed Europe is not ready for an open war with Russia, they have their own problems there, and NATO in this part of the world is in given time will not be able to assemble a dominant fist, locally, Russia is still stronger. Do not forget about China, which will increase its influence many times over in the event of a Russia-NATO mess. Therefore, no one will ever fit in for the Svidomites, everything would have ended, as it began - on sanctions.

The Russians were bought by the Crimea. There was one wonderful chance, not to exchange for one peninsula, but to take EVERYTHING!

And here we are, let's go back to the moment of Yanukovych's flight, which these suckers missed. For many, Yanukovych remained a legitimate president, Russia was a friendly power, and the Ukrainians themselves did not yet feel hostility towards us. Maybe treated neutrally, but without hatred.

The entire army of the Russian Federation by the time Olympic Games was mobilized, the tanks were filled, the ammunition was distributed, there was a lukewarm Yanukovych, who had to be put on armor, and the parade marches would enter Kyiv. Most likely, this whole operation would have taken two days, and would have been extremely anemic. The old elites of Yanukovych, who had not yet managed to scatter, quickly regained their influence, with the help of Moscow political strategists and the first ORT channel. We know that Svidomites are brainwashed quickly and easily in the right direction, and by autumn everyone would have a new, pro-Russian, legitimate president of Ukraine. All executions by snipers would have been investigated, the conspirators would have received what they deserved, and Yarosh would have been driven into the forests of Galicia. Moreover, immediately after the Maidan in Kiev, everything was so fluid, the junta would not have had time to coordinate.

But events managed to start in the right direction for the United States, Russia swallowed the Crimea. Now most of Ukraine considers us aggressors, do not hide their anger, and are ready to kill Muscovites. It is no longer possible to arrive in Kyiv on tanks without major losses, YES and Yanukovych slowly turned into a “no argument”.

A little about tactical, strategic tasks and groups of influence. In the United States itself, too, everything is not clear, having gained control over the gas transportation system of Ukraine, certain circles need to stabilize the conflict. They need all the components of success, the consumer, the seller and peace in the region. Moreover, it does not matter to them how many kilometers of the pipeline they will control, 600 or 400, the transit fee will be the same. They are ready to give a piece of Ukraine to Novorossia, and of course they achieve their goal. Another group of players in the US is not interested in money at all. These are our partners, the neoconservatives. It is important for them to get a country hostile to Russia with a common border. Ideally for them, without any buffer New Russia. THEIR goal and task is to embitter as much as possible Ukrainian people in relation to Russia and plant a revenge bomb. The puppeteers will anger both sides of the conflict, the longer the better, provoke an escalation of hostilities, but without fully involving Russia. For them, there is a danger of losing control if Parashenko is overthrown. Secret players will try to the last to destroy the resistance of the rebels, but if the troops of the South-East suddenly break the initiative and move on Kyiv, Parashenko will be ready to immediately sign a peace. The minimum task for neoconservatives will be completed. A new Ukrainian pro-fascist state will be created, having under its foundation an undisguised hatred of Russia.

Militarization, the war economy will pull out a new Ukraine. Believe me - the neo-conservatives, as a group of influence in the USA, will find money to support their fighting fist. Most likely in Ukraine will begin economic growth as under Hitler. All defense enterprises will start working, the former Warsaw Pact countries, and now the eastern outpost of NATO, will start selling their old “Soviet equipment” to Ukrainians, of which there is still a lot left, and buying new ones made in the USA. Thus the circle of the dollar will be closed. Kyiv is given a loan, Kyiv is buying junk in the eastern countries of NATO, they are buying new weapons in American military corporations. It turns out quite a viable design. The ruined economy and the pre-default state of Ukraine itself will not embarrass anyone, there will be money for its militarization.

Ukraine itself will never join NATO, but its existence will undermine the entire defense doctrine of Moscow. Nuclear weapons will become completely useless. Moscow will have the opportunity to beat atomic bombs for its eternal ally - fraternal Ukraine! Not in a nightmare. But it will become a reality, and very soon. With American money, New Ukraine will be able to create an army of 1.5 million people who are ready for war in winter, who know the area, who have their relatives on enemy territory. The most important thing in this army is that it will be perfect, it’s not a pity! Let everyone die in a fratricidal war. The US and the EU will be de jure out of the conflict. They won’t even have protest demonstrations there when we tear each other up here.

Here is your grandmother "Yuri's Day".

For Russia, this is a death sentence, this should not be allowed under any circumstances. To recapture Novorossiya is not enough for Russia, but to lose it is like death. This is the situation in which the government of the Russian Federation is now. How to be?

I think that Russia will not openly send troops, but will help covertly, the rebels of Novorossia. It is quite possible that as a result of some kind of provocation on the part of the Ukrainian army, whether it is shelling of the territory of the Russian Federation, or any other, the government may decide to the involvement of special groups MO. Behind the scenes to outline a certain buffer zone, its security. Silence V.V. is dragging on and in this situation, in order to continue the tacit neutrality, a daring breakthrough strike from the army of the southeast is needed. Maybe to Mariupol, maybe back to Slavyansk, it doesn’t matter, it’s important to divert the attention of the press from waiting for Putin’s response to the endless shelling of our Russian land before the victims begin. At the same time, the rest of the Ukrainian territory will remain the main headache, the United States will not allow it to be captured, and it will be impossible to let it go. The only chance will be the fragmentation of the rest of the territory of present-day Ukraine, into many fragments that are at war with each other, and it will be necessary to turn all this around so that Novorossia would become the largest and strongest piece.

I see no other way out for Russia. I think Russia will seek a victorious operation by the troops of Novorossia and at the same time prepare a conspiracy of all against all, Kolamoisky against Lyashko, Parashenko against Kolomoisky, the Army against the National Guard, Nafto against Gas, and them together against Ukraine » In the event of the collapse of Ukraine, Russia will remain protected, the Nazis will not be able to assemble an army comparable to the Russian Army, all they will be able to do is fight among themselves again.

To leave everything to chance is to lose everything, and in 5-10 years to get a war on an equal footing with the repeatedly strengthened "fraternal republic".

Truly, the communists planted a bomb with a timer wherever they could.

My friend Giulietto Chiesa was visiting me last night.

Naturally, we talked about many things. Now there is only one story.

What is the purpose of this government (and of all Western European governments in general)? Since no American president can announce to Americans that from now on their incomes will not grow, but only fall, compensatory mechanisms must be found. One of them is to reduce all types of social spending in the EU countries. To do this, gradually, one after another, the EU countries will be brought to bankruptcy. After that, the same programs that have already been adopted in Greece and Italy will be imposed on them.
The declared prospect of such a regime of savings is the future growth of the economy. But this cannot happen, as salaries, pensions, all social payments and so on will be reduced. As a result, demand will fall. Therefore, there can be no economic recovery.
Sooner or later, large-scale social protests will begin in the EU countries - unrest, strikes, riots, and so on.
Ultimately, there is only one way out - war. Not as a panacea, but as a red herring. The main goal for today is Iran. Which, of course, will answer. But for the medium term, this will be enough.
I repeat - I reproduce the logic of the development of events, which Giulietto Chiesa outlined to me.

Here are some of the results of the audit, which became known in the summer of 2011 and were shocking to members of Congress and all those who read the audit report.

Between December 2007 and June 2010, the Fed issued $16 trillion in loans. These transactions were not reflected in the balance sheets and other official financial statements of the Federal Reserve. Consequently, the operations were clandestine. To understand the scale of operations, we note that the gross domestic product US last year amounted to about 14 trillion. dollars, and the total public debt of the United States today is estimated at 14.5 trillion. dollars.

Extradition decisions were made without the consent of the US President, Congress and the US government. The leaders of the country were not even informed about these operations.

Almost all of the money went to buy back the so-called "toxic" assets of borrowers. In other words, the secret emission of dollars was carried out under paper, which is ordinary waste paper (we express ourselves figuratively: often “assets” turned out to be electronic records in general that had nothing to do with the material world). The "theory" means that the "assets" will eventually be bought out by debtors from the Federal Reserve, and the gigantic $16 billion money supply will eventually be cancelled. It's in "theory". In practice, not a single dollar, not a single cent of the debt has yet been repaid. No one is going to repay debts.

Now the most interesting. To whom was the money distributed? They dispersed to various private banking and financial institutions. The Fed rescued financial crooks with their "toxic" assets - both in America and in all parts of the world. As a result of the audit, all the main banks close to the world financial elite, through which the "blood" of the economy - money - enters the channels of circulation of all countries of the world, were actually "highlighted". Fed is top floor world financial system, and banks receiving Fed loans - the second floor. Further floors follow. Russian banks are somewhere at the very bottom of this financial pyramid or towers (one might even say - in the basement). Here is a list of those who are close to the FRS (in parentheses are the amounts of loans received by the FRS, billion dollars):

Citigroup (2500); Morgan Staley (2004); Merril Lynch (1949); Bank of America (1344); Barclays PLC (868); Bear Sterns (853); Goldman Sachs (814); Royal Bank of Scotland (541); JP Morgan (391); Deutsche Bank (354); Credit Swiss (262); UBS (287); Leman Brothers (183); Bank of Scotland (181); BNP Paribas (175).

Tripoli is in the hands of the rebels. Russia, which previously supported the murderous UN resolution (in fact, permission to seize the country by force) on Libya, has become more cautious. The Russian delegation voted against the Human Rights Council resolution on Syria, calling it "one-sided and politicized." What's next? How will events develop in Libya and the region? Who is next in line for "democratization" - Syria?

Experts commented on the situation in Libya and Syria to the correspondent.

Political scientist, First Vice President of the Modeling Center strategic developmentGrigory Trofimchuk: First of all, I would like to ask a question to experts who did not participate in the Libyan information war, but, nevertheless, gave comments on the topic “ final defeat NATO”: is it possible to be so short-sighted?

After the fall of Libya, and the vagueness of Russia's actions on this issue, the problem takes on more alarming proportions than just a mechanical question of who is next. If Russia does not take non-standard measures to prevent the slaughter of Syria, then in the not so distant future, a blow to itself will begin to be seen. Speaking about Syria as the last frontier for the Russian Federation and the non-standard nature of Russian decisions, of course, the option of direct participation of the Russian Federation in a raid on this Middle Eastern country or the entry of the Russian Federation into NATO is not taken into account, as one of the most radical options for reinsurance.

Can we rule out the possibility that if Russia is hit in a similar way, it will not be left alone, as all those who have been beaten for strength so far have remained? If this happens, Russia will be left alone in the same way, and everyone else will watch this “Stalingrad-2” on TV, wondering when the foreign minister will be caught or who will be given a ransom.

It cannot be ruled out that the West has long been working out options for the behavior of Russia's partners in a force majeure situation. It is also possible that some of them will be deactivated in advance by serious preferences - for example, China, Russia's partner in BRICS. It cannot be ruled out that those who are obliged in various positions to ensure the security of Russia will be bribed in advance with money. Russia is not doing anything to stop the mass exit of Russian capital and oligarchs, who will de-energize the country financially by the very fact of their influence on cash flows.

If Syria is next in line, then Belarus may be next in sight, North Korea. Kim Jong Il, who was openly mocked during his last visit to the Russian Federation Russian media, affectionately calling him “beloved leader” in Korean, must have come here to discuss problems not only related to pipes. Venezuela can not be touched, calmly waiting for the results of severe treatment Hugo Chavez, just like the moment of physical death Fidel Castro. If the countries of the Greater Caucasus do not intervene in the Syrian process, in the sense of preventing a coup d'état (Azerbaijan, Armenia, etc.), in this case, the Western alliance will begin to enter directly into the post-Soviet zone, since other test penetrations, which is called "for lice", will already will not need. After Syria, anyone can be extinguished, leaving Iran "for dessert", wrapping around it like a wolf. Whether Russia will be able to take a special position and whether an anti-war alliance can be formed in the Caucasus is a big question. Apparently not.

In global terms, the West should begin to shake the East, within which a huge conflict potential has accumulated, which will sooner or later be used - just the fact of confrontation over the disputed islands between the two communist countries of Asia, the PRC and the Vietnam, is enough, due to which the entire Asian Pacific region.

Journalist Igor Bogatyrev: Well, firstly, I still do not have confidence that "Tripoli is in the hands of the rebels" - too many "performances" are shown to us by the aggressor side. However, of course, I have no doubt that Gaddafi will not withstand the pressure of NATO troops. It is the matter of time. Syria, of course, is next in line. The “world policeman”, without receiving resistance, establishes the “order” that is beneficial to him. That is: the capture of hydrocarbons, the initiation of the extinction of the population in "unnecessary" regions, the erasure from the world's memory of even the remnants of memories of the possibility of living differently than the "owner" requires.

Scientific Director of the Center for the Study of Modernity (Paris, France) Pavel Krupkin: The West seems to have found working tools for training the traditional elites of developing countries, which it will use when educating those democracies. The main element of this set of tools is the money of the security forces - by holding these "gorillas" and "hamadryas" for their wallets, the "democratizers" managed to block the violent reprisals against the disgruntled population and contribute to the removal of long-term dictators from the political arena of the respective countries. The next dictator will also "live" only until a new "revolt of the masses", and so on. So over time such a feature political systems developing countries, as the irremovability of the supreme power, will be eliminated, which will automatically transfer these countries to the category of democratic ones.

The developed toolkit also covers those cases when part of the security forces is ready to fight with the insurgent people. How this will take place is demonstrated in Libya. At the same time, the entire Libyan campaign was financed by the dictator - which is also a wonderful know-how. Chavez, by the way, has already drawn his conclusions.

Will the "democratizers" deal with Syria immediately? I think that now the relevant think tanks Western countries are calculating scenarios in this direction. If Assad has already managed to rein in his "rebels", then perhaps he will be left "for later" - for the training of elites in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya has just begun - and this training will require both time and resources to work it out in full. The fact that the West has certain resource constraints is shown by the surrender of Bahrain, and possibly Yemen.

In conclusion, it should be noted that the developed technology is also promising in terms of Russia, as recently stated by McCain. Money and personal interests Russian security forces already located "where necessary", the stash for financing the coup is also collected "where necessary", and it has been accumulated in a very decent amount (thanks to Kudrin). So the matter remained with the popular performances due to the dissipated legitimacy ruling group. So the life of Russian bosses in the medium term will be nervous and rating-sensitive - because you look, they will democratize themselves, without a kick from the outside.

Political scientist, media and PR technology expert (Azerbaijan) Ali Hajizade: Events can develop according to different scenarios, including the Iraqi one. The rebels managed to take Tripoli only with the help of NATO and, as it turned out, military personnel from some Arab countries, this suggests that they are not very strong, and the support of the population is not quite the 100% that they themselves declare.

As we know from history, it is relatively easy to get power, but it is difficult to keep it, and even in a country like Libya, we must not forget that the population of Libya consists of tribes. And each tribe has its own interests and its own top. In the days of Gaddafi, they all sat quietly, whether the new government will be able to ensure, if not the obedience, then at least the loyalty of the tribes, time will tell.

As for Syria, the fact is that there is no oil there, and this makes the country less attractive to the US and Europe, but this does not mean that they will let events in Syria take their course. It is quite possible that Syria will be appointed Turkey as an older brother or they will try to put pressure on Bashar al-Assad tougher sanctions. In Syria, the problem has been ripe for a long time, since the unemployment rate in the country is quite high, Syria does not have great natural wealth to provide a more or less tolerable existence for its citizens, plus a repressive state apparatus created by the father of the current president, which controls everything and everyone. All this could not but cause discontent among the population. In addition, Syria is an ally of Iran, and the United States would be happy to deprive Iran of another ally.

Interpreter Fyodor Tolstoy(Boston, USA): It seems so. Bashar al-Assad has lost his legitimacy and is of little interest to anyone. Two scenarios are possible: The Egyptian scenario - the forces in the ruling circles get rid of Assad, negotiate with the most lively oppositionists and establish a transitional government. Libyan scenario - the opposition forms combat units, they are armed and supported military force foreigners with the consent of NATO, Russia and China. Unlike Libya, if there is an intervention in Syria on the side of the opposition, then it will be led not by Europe or the United States, but by Turkey.

political constructor Yuri Yuriev: Libya now and Libya's potential in the Arab world: Tripoli is still in the hands of the landing force, and it seems that it is “rebel” only in name, but actually consists of NATO personnel and satellites with former NATO specialists. It is possible that the "rebels" will be expelled as soon as the NATO bombing ends. I believe that the rebels were allowed to enter Tripoli precisely in order to stop the NATO bombing, namely, by substituting the “rebels” under the bombs. In this case, the elimination of the "rebels", by force or by agreement, Gaddafi will be able to claim the role of the new Saladin, the role of historical significance, and his sons will be the moral and military leaders of the entire Islamic Mediterranean. As a result, the “socialist idea”, which was implemented by the Jamahiriya surrounded by “comprador dictatorships”, will receive new life, and not only in Libya, but in all Arab countries. But this is an optimistic scenario for the Mediterranean. Optimistic, not because the Gaddafi family will remain in power, but because these people have no tradition of shedding blood outside their country. The Somalis, who were kicked out by the United States earlier, have such a tradition, Carthage had such a tradition, and the Muslim pirates who had previously terrorized the entire Mediterranean in the era of the sailing fleet. Libya does not yet have such a tradition, and it is unlikely that it will appear as long as Gaddafi and his ideological heirs are in power.

The Arab world around Libya and the prospects for its assistance to Libya:

Around Libya political situation is not benevolent to the right of the Arabs to live in their own states and according to their own laws, however paradoxical it may sound. The Arab states betray the same right. It is more convenient for the Arab states to trade natural resources without much civilizational effort, be it oil, tourism, transit, and it is more convenient to receive money for this from Western countries. Maybe, Arab states would be happy to deal with Japan or Germany other than the US, but this is difficult since both Japan and Germany are essentially occupied by the US. Therefore, the Arab states are unlikely to abandon the money and technology of the West, the example of countries already occupied by the United States is quite successful in economic terms, if we talk about the triumph of profit over the rights to self-government. Libya will be able to unequivocally lead in the Arab Mediterranean only if it offers all Arabs a share of Libyan oil in a single state, thereby indirectly hitting the US monarchist-despotic allies in the Persian Gulf. But this will reduce the share of every Libyan. And this bargaining may take several more years. But if this bargaining is successful, "Neo-Carthage" can block "Neo-Rima" Gibraltar and Suez, creating such an environment as near Somalia, and as a result, the West does not have enough fleets to control all the pirates and all the mine-explosive devices on their fairways. The militarization of the region will hurt the Western trade economy, and sooner or later economic forces they will ask: “And who is to blame for the destruction of centuries-old trading traditions?”

Libya's military outlook:

As for the purely military prospects of Libya, so far NATO has enough mercenaries for Iraq and Afghanistan, and even for Germany and Japan, there are millions of mercenaries, and if there is no threat of a nuclear strike against them, then they fight quite successfully, and especially with poorly armed adversary. There is no one to stand up for Libya, except for the neighbors, and those who need incentives and strength. I don’t take Russia into account at all in the nearest forecasts, since Medvedev crossed himself out, supporting the lawlessness of NATO under the pretext of the UN, and did not notice the repeated violations of UN standards. Thus, Libya remains militarily alone until it can attract the mass character of the Arabs in its interests. It was the same with Iraq. Libya remains a guerrilla war on its own and the search for new forces in order to remove NATO, or create threats to NATO at key points international trade, the Suez Canal and Gibraltar.

Prospects for the occupation of Libya:

The occupation of NATO will create bloody chaos in Libya, and everywhere, except for the zones of oil production and oil exports. This will allow, on the one hand, to create "enticing paradise islands", and, on the other hand, to mutually destroy the born contenders for oil. This technology has been developed in the countries of the Persian Gulf. It has many vulnerabilities, but for some reason the Arabs do not use them. Perhaps due to some natural or religious qualities.

Who is next in line after Libya:

Syria is the last island of power of the heirs of the all-Arab National Socialist Ba'ath Party, which once controlled almost the entire Arab world. Perhaps Syria should be brought to the blockade, as Iraq was before. And as a result of a long-term blockade, Syria will weaken so much that it will be possible to “democratize” it, and, frankly speaking, “neo-colonialize”. But Syria, from an economic point of view, is not key country. It has neither oil nor global trade routes, nor traditions of expansionism. However, according to rumors, they want to weaken Syria in order to weaken the influence of Syria on Lebanon, since oil fields of the Leviathan group were discovered on the Lebanese shelf, in the Levantine Basin, which, according to average forecasts, are not inferior to the fields of all of Russia. Most likely, the point for impact will be Iran. It is Iran that controls the most important oil strait in Eurasia in Persian Gulf, has huge reserves of hydrocarbons and seeks to increase the quantity and quality of weapons. In contrast to Libya, that Russia did not pay well for weapons and subsequently received what it received. In addition, Iran is a supplier of hydrocarbons to China and India, and Iran's control is very promising in this regard, complicating supplies to competitors. Considering that NATO has attracted thousands of military experts from Arab countries to Libya, creating such “rebels” somewhere in Iran is just an increase in the scale of technology.

What is the essence of "bloody neo-colonialism":

Previously, it was believed that capitalism needs peaceful herds of prosperous consumers, and, they say, this is the goal of capitalism. But it does not give super profits. Superprofits give superneeds. One of the superneeds is the need for military technology. At the moment, in Libya, defying UN norms, the West is frightening all countries of the world, urgently forcing them to extraordinary military spending, and thereby “dramatically” makes money for their corporations producing processors, communications, weapons, military technology and medicines.

Publicist and publisher (New York, USA) Michael Dorfman: It is very important for Libya and for the entire region to prevent bloodshed after the overthrow of Gaddafi. It is also important to prevent extrajudicial reprisals against Gaddafi and his family. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon demanded the transfer of Gaddafi to the International Criminal Court for judicial trial. We must not allow a “shemyakin trial”, as happened with the Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. No blood feud against Gaddafi, his family against representatives of the former elite should be allowed.

Far-right and Islamophobes of all stripes vehemently want Libya to fall into chaos. Contrary to common sense they are echoed by the Israeli right. They want to get proof of their belief in the treachery of the Arabs and Muslims, to confirm their conviction that "there can never be peace with them." For a while, this will strengthen the occupation of Palestine and prolong the bloodshed in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In the broader perspective, the continuation of the occupation threatens to engulf Israel itself, and the chaos in the Middle East only undermines the foundations for the existence of a Jewish state there.

The stubborn resistance of Gaddafi slowed down the development of the revolution in the Arab world, inspired tyrants and dictators to fight back. The example of Gaddafi inspired the Yemeni dictator to resist the will of the people Ali Abdul Saleh. The protests in Algeria have subsided. The Moroccan opposition hid. The fall of Gaddafi will undoubtedly inspire other Arab (and perhaps not only Arab) peoples to continue the revolution. Back in the headlines Yemen and Bahrain. Dissatisfaction with the corrupt regime of the Palestinian Authority is growing. Dissatisfaction with the power of Hamas in the Gaza Strip is spreading. Only the Israeli blockade helps Hamas maintain absolute control over supply and consumption there.

Who's next? Most likely it will be Bashar al-Assad in Syria. The number of his opponents is multiplying. They are brave, they are unarmed, they are fearless. They deserve freedom. They didn't climb armed struggle like in Libya. The only way to use force to topple Assad is to have Turkey help if it wants to intervene. Today this is more than doubtful. Moreover, NATO will not interfere. If a external world does not use force against the Assad regime, then its fall will be delayed. However, it is inevitable. It will only take more time and even stronger popular resistance for the Syrian elite to turn their backs on Assad's semi-mafia regime.

The main thing is that the overthrow of the regime of Muammar Gaddafi does not turn Libya into a "new Iraq". In fact, Assad no longer rules Syria. His government does not control the situation in the country, but is busy putting out uprisings, like sparks flying all over the country. Syria has become a tumultuous conglomeration of districts and cities. As soon as the indignation boils at one point, the army moves there, kills several dozen people, and then is taken for the next restless city. It's anything but power. It's only a matter of time before Assad leaves. But eventually he will leave.

The question of who will replace him is even more important for Syria than for Libya, so that the new rulers follow the path of the Egyptian revolution, where moderation won, refrain from violence and revenge. It is also important to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood from gaining sole control over the country. This would play into the hands of the extreme right in the US and in Israel. Most observers believe that the new, predominantly Sunni regime in Syria will abandon its close alliance with Iran. This would also be a positive development for peace in the region.

The Hamas leadership, based in Damascus, remains silent and stubbornly refuses to express support for Assad. In turn, Assad recently ordered an attack on a Palestinian refugee camp in Damascus. This is a clear signal to Hamas that Assad is not happy with his defection. Iran also cut off funding to Hamas for failing to support Assad in times of need. The delay in the transfer of Iranian money means that those under the Israeli blockade in the Gaza Strip will not be paid wage for the current month. The Assads, first father and then son, faithfully followed the treaty with Israel and kept the Syrian-Israeli border shut. However, it does not seem that the Syrian dictator is ready to allow the settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict until Israel returns the Golan Heights to Syria. Assad was an obstacle to an Israeli-Palestinian settlement.

The fall of Assad will increase the chances of an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. The new Syrian government may have a deterrent effect on Hamas, and this will create the potential for resolving the conflict with Israel. Although it takes two to tango, and under the current Israeli government, the chances of a settlement are slim. Israel should not expect the new Syrian government to be able, like Assad and Mubarak, to contain anti-Israeli sentiment in the country. The world is accustomed to listening to Israeli public opinion, but now we have to reckon with the voice of the Arab street, which is much more resolutely pro-Palestinian than the rulers swept away by the revolutions. A new Syrian government, possibly allied with Turkey and Egypt, could put serious pressure on Israel to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This could become important step creating positive dynamics throughout the Middle East.

We remind you that as a result of the landing of NATO troops and the battles for the capital Tripoli, the city is under the control of the invaders and rebels. The leader of the Libyan nation addressed the peoples of the whole world.

If tomorrow there is a war ... How will events develop in the event of a direct clash with Turkey

When in my childhood I served military service in the Strategic Missile Forces of the USSR, on the predecessor of Topol and Yars, the RSD-10 Pioneer medium-range mobile missile system (SS-20, according to NATO classification), we had three types of combat readiness:

- “permanent”, when the crews on duty are in the barracks, in twenty-minute readiness to enter the field area;

- “military danger”, when duty crews are in a stationary position, directly in equipment, in immediate readiness to enter the field area;

- "full", when the regiment secretly deployed in the field area, which increased its chances of surviving after the first enemy strike.

At the same time, the regiment managed to launch its missiles in any case, since the installations of the starting divisions (regardless of location and level of combat readiness) were in constant readiness to the launch, which, according to the standards, was carried out within 2 minutes (the flight time of the Pershings and Tomahawks was 5-6 minutes), but in reality the prepared calculations were enough for 40 seconds.

That is, the increase in the level of combat readiness was carried out not in order to have time to respond (they had time in any case), but to increase the chances of their own units to survive by deploying them in advance in battle formations. Let me remind you that one of the main reasons (though not the only one) of the Soviet defeats in the summer of 1941 was that the enemy preempted the Soviet command with operational deployment. The result is lost border battles, the loss of thousands of pieces of equipment (not inferior to German in quality and superior in quantity), as well as almost the entire personnel of the Red Army and a retreat thousands of kilometers inland.

The army and the country must be ready for war even at a time when there seems to be no one to fight with. Moreover, it is necessary to be prepared when a hybrid war with a geopolitical adversary has been going on for more than one year, and at any moment a hot conflict with several neighbors can break out at once, who are carefully pushed to war with us by that same geopolitical adversary.

I have already written that all the conflicts in which today, in one form or another, Russia is involved are interconnected. So far, the fronts have intensified in turn: Georgia, Syria, Ukraine, Syria again. But now we have come to a situation of a radical turning point.

Turkey, having shot down a Russian bomber in the sky of Syria, was in a strategic trap. If it accepts the status quo, with the Syrian skies closed to it and the border closing, then the Erdogan regime is losing the geopolitical game it started a decade ago. Ankara, which claimed the first role in the Middle East and almost recreated (in a new format Ottoman Empire) even loses the status of a regional power.

At the same time, one must understand that Erdogan has an extremely difficult domestic political situation. To put it mildly, a significant part of the Turkish elite does not like him. How much the purges he carried out in the army protected him from traditional Turkish surprises with the military is also not clear. In any case, the military does not need a weak (losing) leader. Meanwhile, the politicians who lost the political struggle in Turkey were hanged back in the seventies. And far less bloodstained than Erdogan.

The concentration of Turkish troops on the Syrian border (albeit under the plausible pretext of fighting ISIS at the request of the United States), in the context of a confrontation with Russia, creates the conditions for a sudden escalation (which may even be accidental, or may be disguised as accidental). In any case, war is now more preferable for Erdogan than retreat under Russian pressure. This is even without taking into account the Kurdish factor, which is an additional irritant for Turkey.

In the war, he can count on covert (and not so) support from the United States, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The war gives him the opportunity not to mask the alliance with ISIS. He may try to stimulate the unfreezing of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and, in principle, to play on the destabilization of the Caucasus.

Of course, the war also stimulates the consolidation of the Russian-Syrian-Iranian alliance and, perhaps, even the formalization of relations with the Kurds. But, on the other hand, it will also require certainty from NATO. Yes, Greece has dreamed all her life to fight with Turkey, and not with Russia. Yes, in the Balkans, in principle, pro-Russian sentiments are strong and, taking into account all this, NATO cannot take the side of Turkey. But in the event of a military conflict between a NATO member and Russia, against which the bloc has always been directed, NATO will not be able to remain silent (then the Alliance will lose its meaning of existence). A compromise option could be attempts at peacekeeping on behalf of the EU and NATO, under the threat of increased sanctions and even the provision of military-technical assistance to Turkey (without entering into direct hostilities on its side).

The West (US and EU) will have an ideal opportunity to mediate negotiations in the Middle East to win back the positions lost during the fruitless attempts to remove Assad by military means.

It is clear that if politicians in the Caucasus are sufficiently cautious and will beware of getting involved in an open conflict with Russia over Turkey even under US guarantees (they know the price of these guarantees well), then the situation for Ukrainian leaders is even worse than for Erdogan. The Minsk process has already led to the isolation of Ukraine from the leading EU countries, to the loss of financial support West, without which the country cannot live even a year. The frozen conflict in Donbass against the backdrop of the complete collapse of the economy and the impoverishment of the broad masses made Poroshenko, the government of Yatsenyuk and even the Rada, consisting of a third of the “heroes of the Maidan” and “heroes of the ATO”, hated not only for Nazi militants (who always believed that the overthrow of Yanukovych was only the first stage of their Nazi revolution), but also for the liberal-European integration mass of “creative” hamsters of the Maidan, who are already ready to merge in ecstasy with the Nazis in the rebellion against Poroshenko, as they most recently merged with them in the rebellion against Yanukovych.

Of course, such a rebellion will finish off Ukraine. But Poroshenko-Yatsenyuk does not feel any better because he will finish them off first of all. The only way to push back the danger of a rebellion is to intensify the fighting in the Donbass. In fact, break the Minsk truce and start a new war.

So far, Kyiv has been held back only by the danger of an instant military defeat, with the complete indifference of the West (Paris and Berlin were quite clearly opposed to violating the Minsk agreements). But, if you enter into a conflict simultaneously with Turkey, as a military ally of Erdogan, then you can expect that stretched on all fronts Russian forces finish off Ukraine fast enough. Moreover, Russia may not immediately translate civil war in Ukraine into the format of an interstate conflict, and the militia of Donbass is not capable of a deep breakthrough to Kyiv due to sufficient numbers. Kyiv can expect to become, along with Turkey, an object of Euro-American peacekeeping. In the end, they can only guess about Moscow’s plans in Ankara and Kyiv, but they are confident that Washington, which is losing along with them, will bless any provocation against Russia and will try to use this factor in their own interests.

During the new stage of the war in the Donbass, Poroshenko will try to dispose of another part of the Nazi formations and weaken the rest as much as possible. Then, in the course of Western peacekeeping, to exchange part of the territories (even if not two, but three or five regions), for peace guaranteed by NATO. This is his old dream. Moreover, he already needs NATO peacekeepers and will be needed not to attack the lost territories (NATO will not fight Russia because of him), but to protect the authorities from the Ukrainian Nazis, to disarm their gangs and stabilize the regime.

In this regard, the simultaneous or close in time action by Turkey and Ukraine in the form of a series of growing provocations, quickly turning into open hostilities, is not only very likely, but is almost the only way for the political survival of regimes and the physical survival of their leaders.

Note that for Russia, the activation of Ukraine will mean a threat to rear communications, providing not only communication with the contingent in Syria, but also deployment against Turkey (including for the purpose of protecting the Caucasus). Serious forces, including the forces of the fleet, will be bound by the protection of the Crimea and the provision of communications with Pridnestrovie, in case Kyiv decides to become more active in this direction as well (in order to draw Moldova into the conflict, and through it Romania, another NATO country).

Hence the consequence - it is necessary to be ready for a new war in the Donbass, which will take place in the conditions of the opening of a second front by Turkey or, at least, the presence of a constant threat from Turkish groups deployed on the border with Syria.

Well, a war, especially a war with several opponents, in the most difficult geopolitical conditions, requires unconditional unity of command. Until now, unity of command in the Donbass was ensured by the fact that various Russian departments that oversaw the processes taking place there, through their leaders, closed themselves on the president. Putin received reports from the political vertical, the security vertical, the intelligence vertical, the army vertical, the EMERCOM vertical, as well as from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, etc. and, if necessary, coordinated their actions.

The transition of Russian participation in the Syrian crisis from a political to a military phase, of course, required additional attention from the president, but, nevertheless, the operation in Syria was carried out in the format of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff, that is, it did not go beyond the usual coordination.

If these two conflicts move into a phase of open war with the participation of Russia (so far these are formally civil conflicts), and even with the danger of involving new states (both on one side and on the other), as well as with a sharp increase in the military-political and diplomatic Western activity, a new level of coordination will be required from the president. It will be too fully involved in the operational geopolitical game in order to quickly resolve issues of coordinating the actions of various departments in narrow areas. In the same Donbass and in the same Syria (where the number of involved Russian departments will increase sharply, and the operation itself will lose its predominantly military character, due to a sharp increase in its political and diplomatic component).

Under these conditions, it becomes necessary to create an intermediate level of coordination. When in the Donbass, Syria (as well as in any other place where a new crisis arises with Russian participation), the coordination of the actions of various departments will drop by one level (from the presidential one). If you give an example, then this is something like representatives of the Headquarters on the fronts of the Great Patriotic War. They coordinated the actions of several fronts involved in the conceived parallel operations, and already their actions were coordinated by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief.

The only difference is that now the main efforts are concentrated on the political fronts. The war is a hybrid one, we are still "partners" with the main enemy. Therefore, coordination is primarily political.

In particular, it is clear that if Ukraine and Turkey act simultaneously or almost simultaneously, then our main task will be to eliminate the eventual threat to the deep rear from Ukraine. Considering the danger of self-interested Western peacekeeping, it is necessary to eliminate the Ukrainian threat militarily in a matter of days, a maximum of a week. Roughly speaking, it doesn't really matter what identification marks will be on the soldiers who entered Lviv (even if there are no signs at all - what can you take from the militias). The main thing is that they go there.

But the process of political settlement (after the military phase) will be long and stretch (as I wrote about it back in 2014) for more than one year. It is enough to look at how difficult it was to bring the Donbass into a state at least close to normal in two years. And here we will talk about the whole of Ukraine, moreover, stuffed with bandits and weapons to the eyeballs and with a population that is far from being friendly, living compactly in large areas.

And now it’s too late to argue whether we need Galicia or not – we need to secure the rear of the Syrian operation from the Ukrainian authorities, who need the war like air (in conditions when the danger of Turkey’s intervention is extremely high). And sitting on any piece of the remaining Ukrainian territory, the current government will claim the right to represent the whole of Ukraine (even Crimea).

The armed forces can only quickly defeat the army. Further, without anticipating the results of the final political settlement, it is necessary to create an administration (possibly in the form of several, connected in a weak confederation people's republics, it is possible in the form of a single central interim government, it is possible in the form of several regional administrations that are not connected to each other). It is not desirable to have only an occupying Russian administration there, since the Vienna and Geneva conventions prescribe that the occupying state is responsible for the population of the occupied territory, and this is such an abyss that it is easier to fight Turkey, Saudi Arabia and half of Europe at once than to maintain only Ukraine.

However, while only the most naive of the former Ukrainian leaders assume that Russia will liberate Ukraine so that they can govern it as before, in reality, the Ukrainian elites have shown a complete inability to independent work, control over the territory must be maintained regardless of the system of government formally legalized there. Since there is the experience of Donbass (governance through local representatives, from which slowly, by trial and error, a new elite is formed, loyal, adequate to the tasks and able to respond to a rapidly changing situation), it is easiest to transfer it to all of Ukraine.

The sharp growth of geopolitical tasks requires an informal political centralization of the administration of controlled territories. Approximately, they should be controlled by the format federal district. And it is worth working out this scheme already now on the basis of the experience of the two republics, since tomorrow political headquarters will have to be deployed from wheels, in an undeveloped structure and in a format that is not provided with the necessary resources.

Since the Ukrainian crisis is far from the last, where after a military settlement it will be necessary to apply informal schemes of political control, working out a “pilot project” on it can greatly facilitate life in the future. In the end, the well-organized headquarters of the army or the front does not care to take Berlin or Harbin - it only needs to allocate troops and cut tasks.

My friend Giulietto Chiesa was visiting me last night.

Naturally, we talked about many things. Now there is only one story.

Here are some of the results of the audit, which became known in the summer of 2011 and were shocking to members of Congress and all those who read the audit report.

Between December 2007 and June 2010, the Fed issued $16 trillion in loans. These transactions were not reflected in the balance sheets and other official financial statements of the Federal Reserve. Consequently, the operations were clandestine. To understand the scale of operations, we note that the US gross domestic product last year amounted to about 14 trillion. dollars, and the total public debt of the United States today is estimated at 14.5 trillion. dollars.

Extradition decisions were made without the consent of the US President, Congress and the US government. The leaders of the country were not even informed about these operations.

Now the most interesting. To whom was the money distributed? They dispersed to various private banking and financial organizations. The Fed rescued financial crooks with their "toxic" assets - both in America and in all parts of the world. As a result of the audit, all the main banks close to the world financial elite, through which the "blood" of the economy - money - enters the channels of circulation of all countries of the world, were actually "highlighted". The Fed is the top floor of the global financial system, and the banks receiving Fed loans are the second floor. Further floors follow. Russian banks are located somewhere at the very bottom of this financial pyramid or tower (one might even say - in the basement). Here is a list of those who are close to the FRS (in parentheses are the amounts of loans received by the FRS, billion dollars):

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Russia and Ukraine: Scenarios for the development of the situation. How events will develop in Libya and Syria: opinions

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