Leather 

Forecast sir for the year coefficients deflators. The Ministry of Economic Development has worsened its own inflation forecast. Forecast from the Higher School of Economics

There are several indicators for measuring inflation, and the most common is the consumer price index, data on which is provided by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. It is calculated as a percentage and reflects the change in the average final price of the basic consumer basket over a certain period of time. The second, the so-called "gross domestic product deflator", which determines the change in prices for the year for all goods and services included in the calculation of GDP, has a number of disadvantages, for example, it does not take into account imported goods.

Advantages and disadvantages of the consumer price index

The undoubted advantage of the CPI is its ability to cover the most popular goods, including imported ones. On the other hand, this indicator has a number of disadvantages. Any change in the composition of the basic consumer basket makes the data for the past and updated periods incomparable. If you do not make such changes, then the selected basket will gradually lose its relevance.

An even more fundamental problem is the essential definition of the composition of the basic consumer basket. In different countries and even in different regions of the same country, the same goods can have different values ​​and significantly different prices. Changing the geographic sample for the base basket opens up a wide range of possibilities for manipulating the indicator. Another feature of consumer inflation is that it can be calculated in different ways, even on the basis of the same sample. For example, the average annual index often differs significantly from the index calculated using the "end of period" method (the last quarter or December of the measured year to the last quarter or December of the previous year).

Taking into account all of the above, professional economists are quite skeptical about the officially published data of the consumer price index. The authorities tend to underestimate the real level of inflation for political reasons, using the methodological and technical nuances of calculating this indicator, which are obscure to most people.

Forecast of the indicator for 2019 in Russia

In the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank are involved in calculating the consumer price index. Their methods are somewhat different. The Government of the Russian Federation regularly publishes a forecast of the economic situation, including consumer inflation, for the current and next years. This forecast usually contains three possible scenarios. Favorable, unfavorable, etc. "base", based on the continuation of current trends.

In the latest (July 2018) forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2019, the consumer price index is set at 4.3% according to the “baseline” scenario and the “end of period” calculation methodology. The previous forecast was 4.2%. The other two scenarios contain similar figures. Target, i.e. the government's desired inflation rate is set at 4%.

The actual achievement of these indicators, even according to the official calculation methodology, is a difficult task. Most of the country's population expects price growth in 2018 and 2019 at the level of 7-8% and even more. Among the factors accelerating inflation in Russia are:

  • increase in value added tax (VAT);
  • the possible introduction of a sales tax in addition to VAT;
  • creeping growth in energy and fuel prices. Indirectly, this leads to an increase in the price of almost all goods and services (transport, housing and communal services, etc.);
  • issue of additional money supply to cover the state budget deficit;
  • rising prices for imported goods due to the gradual devaluation of the ruble. The latter is associated with the ongoing outflow of capital from the country, which, in turn, is due to the political situation.

However, the main risk for the Russian economy in general and consumer inflation in particular in 2019 remains dependence on global oil prices. Currently, they remain at a fairly high level, but are subject to sharp and sudden fluctuations. A significant drop in oil prices can lead to dire consequences. Among them are a shock devaluation of the ruble against major world currencies, an explosive rise in prices for imported goods, an increase in the tariffs of natural monopolies, an increasing issue of unsecured money to cover government spending, as well as a significant increase in various taxes and fees.

The Ministry of Economic Development has clarified the wording of the inflation forecast for 2019 - from 4.3% to 5%.

The level of prices for goods and services is always of interest to Russians, because only very rich people can afford not to keep track of the cost of clothing, food, utilities and the like. Ordinary citizens, faced with new numbers on price tags, are forced to revise their budget, commensurate income with expenses. In the context of a protracted crisis, deflator indices are becoming an important measure of Russia's well-being, because they allow experts to judge the real level of income of citizens.

The recent, tax maneuver in the oil sector and the rapid pace will no doubt have a negative impact on the performance of the retail market. All these factors will affect not only the goods of the consumer group, but also the cost of fuel, electricity and freight at enterprises, and this will lead to an increase in the cost of all types of services and goods - from the already mentioned food products to real estate.

The deflator index will show what the purchasing power of the ruble will be

Forecasting price dynamics is an important stage in planning, so experts must calculate deflator indices. Ordinary citizens are also interested in this forecast - it will allow them to make a shopping plan, especially when it comes to large acquisitions. Let's figure out together what this price indicator can become in 2019!

What are index deflators?

In simple terms, the deflator index is a coefficient used to determine the final price of a certain set of goods and services. These indicators should be calculated for a couple of years in advance, as this allows the Ministry of Economic Development to develop measures to improve the social and economic life of Russians, as well as to consider measures to curb negative financial processes. Thus, deflator indices are the basis for predicting prices for the next year.

In fact, economists compare prices for commodity groups in the current time period with basic price values. If we talk about the economic content of this indicator, then it resembles a consumer price index - only the deflator is calculated not just for individual consumer goods, but for a full range of products from the commodity and service sectors, including those that have not been presented on the market before.

Having understood the specifics of the calculations of this indicator, one can notice its main drawback - deflators reflect the economic situation in such a way that the value of inflation turns out to be underestimated. According to independent experts, this is precisely why government economists are actively using deflators - after all, they need to show that life in the country is going well.

After determining the deflator indexes, experts reduce the calculations into a single forecast, taking into account the medium and long term. As a result, the Ministry of Economic Development publishes probable scenarios that take into account not only the manifestations of certain internal factors, but also the conditions of external markets. This helps the country's leadership to choose goals, the achievement of which will improve the standard of living in the state, as well as to develop scenarios for their implementation, taking into account the positive and negative forecasts.

Scenarios of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2019


The Ministry of Economic Development uses the deflator index when creating forecasts

The forecast assumes the implementation of one of 3 scenarios. In Russia they are known as:

  • “basic” (if conditions close to the current ones remain in the Russian economy);
  • "conservative" (takes into account the likelihood of deterioration of current conditions);
  • "target" (based on the assumption that conditions in the domestic and foreign markets will be optimal for Russia).

The forecasts take into account that: a) Russia will continue to be affected by sanctions from Western European states and the United States; b) the government of the Russian Federation is implementing a set of retaliatory anti-sanction measures; c) the international economy is gradually stabilizing, and global crises and shock situations will bypass the world community. In this case:

  • The Central Bank will be able to implement targeting measures, fixing them at the level of 4%;
  • Urals oil prices will stop at $40 per barrel;
  • interventions in the foreign exchange market, the volume of which will be equal to revenues from oil and gas exports, will help strengthen the ruble exchange rate.

Scenario #1: Basic

This forecast is based on the following assumptions:

  • The external economic situation will allow maintaining the growth of the world economy at the level of 2.8%. It is assumed that developed countries will run out of growth opportunities and face the consequences of unfavorable demographics, while the Chinese economy will show a slowdown due to a heavy debt burden. In turn, developing countries will reduce growth rates due to falling prices for the commodity group;
  • the demand for energy will increase. Black gold prices will remain stable due to the prolongation of agreements to reduce oil production, although they will be under pressure due to an increase in US shale oil production;
  • Russian oil exports will increase, as world prices will be more attractive than domestic prices;
  • investments will grow at a faster pace due to the implementation of a federal program of preferential loans for representatives of small and medium-sized businesses;
  • Russia's economic growth will be supported by the implementation of the "Improving Labor Productivity" and "Digital Economy" programs. As a result, not only labor productivity will increase, but the number of jobs will also increase, new import substitution products will appear;
  • the main driver of economic growth will be the manufacturing industry (i.e. enterprises of the chemical, food and light industries).

Taking into account the above theses, the following changes in the economy of the Russian Federation are possible:

  • the unemployment rate will fall to 4.7%;
  • real ones will increase by 1.3-1.5%, which will have a positive impact on the consumer loan market and demand growth.

Scenario #2: target

Target calculations are based on the same set of assumptions as the basic economic development scenario, however, its calculations include additional positive factors:

  • Rosstat data (presumably, already in 2019, the demographic situation of the Russian Federation will be improved due to an increase in the birth rate and migration growth);
  • the flow of investments will increase due to the growth of oil production (it will be provided by the commissioning of new wells and the modernization of technologies);
  • will strengthen and amount to 67 rubles 40 kopecks per US dollar;
  • GDP dynamics will be positive (3.1% per year).

According to the target scenario, the growth of oil production will significantly strengthen the position of the Russian Federation

Scenario #3: Conservative

This version of the forecast assumes that the financial system of the Russian Federation will suffer from a number of crisis phenomena:

  • The main factor negatively affecting economic growth is the "hard landing" of the Chinese economy. The reason may be negative trends in the financial and non-financial markets;
  • developed countries can tighten their monetary policy;
  • world demand for oil resources will decrease, due to which quotes will fall to $35 per barrel;
  • the exchange rate of the national currency in such conditions can reach 70.3 rubles. per US dollar;
  • GDP growth rates will decrease to 0.8% per year;
  • inflation rates will reach 4.3%.

Forecast values ​​of deflator indices for 2019

According to the most expected scenario (which, however, has not yet been adjusted to take into account tax and social innovations, such as raising the retirement age, fiscal maneuver in the oil industry, and an increase in the excise tax on fuel in 2019), the Ministry of Economic Development is counting on the following figures:

  • estimated price index for consumer goods - 104.4;
  • the assumed commodity price index for the industrial sector is 104.1;
  • coefficient characterizing the wholesale price of gas - 103.8;
  • indicator for wholesale prices for fuel oil - 102.1;
  • the deflator index of the price of coal - 103.9;
  • coefficient for the retail price of electricity - 109.1;
  • index calculated for the cost of heat and water supply - 105.1;
  • the indicator for cargo transportation by Russian Railways is 105.2.

Forecast of the Central Bank of Russia

Experts from the main bank of the Russian Federation say that oil prices, according to their calculations, will grow much stronger in 2019 than the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development. According to Elvira Nabiullina, who is the head of the department, the average price of black gold will reach $55. per barrel. And since the ruble exchange rate has become less dependent on oil prices, the scale of the influence of this factor on a number of consumer prices will noticeably decrease.

Despite new economic decisions in the field of social and economic policy (raising VAT to 20%, raising the retirement age to 63 for Russians and 65 for Russians), the Central Bank promises that inflation will not exceed 4%. However, Nabiullina noted that the latest news had a negative impact on the inflation expectations of ordinary Russians - according to polls, prices are now expected to rise up to 7.8% per year in the country.

Independent experts' forecasts for 2019


Independent experts believe that the joy of the authorities is premature: due to economic innovations, prices for all types of goods and services will begin to rise

It is worth noting that non-governmental experts are less optimistic about the financial outlook for 2019. Analysts believe that the government will not keep inflation at this level. 4% is an unattainable figure, and it will be good if in 2019 financial injections and tight monetary policy will fix the purchasing power of the ruble at least at the level of 4.5%. Interested in details? Then check out the forecasts from various spheres of the economic life of the Russian Federation!

  • Experts are confident that the VAT increase will hit the business environment hard. First, the growth of the base VAT will have a negative impact on the cost of excisable goods (gasoline, alcohol, tobacco products). Secondly, in Russia today there is already a dizzying jump in prices for the fuel group of goods - only in the last few months diesel fuel has reached the level of 40.5 rubles, 92nd gasoline - 38.7 rubles, 95th gasoline - 41.96 rubles. Thus, during the period from May to June, fuel prices increased by 7-8%. At the same time, the government has so far abandoned plans to increase the excise tax, but as soon as it is increased once again (and this is planned for 2019), the price of fuel will be at least 50 rubles / liter. Naturally, such a jump will definitely affect the prices of foodstuffs, household goods and transport services, because sowing and harvesting crops, transporting goods and passengers is impossible without refueling cars and agricultural machinery.
  • Another important point is the reaction of the real estate market. There is an opinion that in 2019 you need to be prepared for a sharp surge in prices for. The new VAT and the price of fuel will have a negative impact on the cost of construction services and materials (rebar, bricks, concrete, elevators, finishing materials, construction equipment, etc.), freight transportation services and the operation of construction equipment. The new VAT rate will make prices 3-4% higher than the current ones, and if we add the cost of gasoline and the planned inflation, we can expect an increase of 5-7%. At the current price of square meters, these are huge sums for ordinary Russians.
  • Do not forget that the country's Reserve Fund was devastated. Of course, the Ministry of Economic Development specifically includes low oil prices in the forecast in order to replenish the Fund at the expense of the difference between planned and actual oil quotations, but experts believe that this will not be enough. Moreover, the government announced another increase in pensions and the minimum wage. It will be possible to implement such social initiatives only by issuing additional money, and this will obviously lead to the devaluation of the national currency.
  • The increase in VAT may reduce the activity of businessmen. Experts warn that the filling of the budget (which depends on VAT by 34%) will not only not increase, but even fall. Entrepreneurs will go into the shadows en masse to cope with the pressure of rising prices.
  • Automotive market experts are also sounding the alarm. According to some assumptions, the price of this group of goods will increase by 10-14% in 2019, while pessimistic forecasts speak of a 20% increase. At the same time, the calculations were made on the basis of only two factors - the ruble exchange rate and the increase in the recycling fee.
  • Potential price increases were also announced by operators in the tourism sector. The cost of tours can increase by 15-20% - even taking into account the fact that domestic transportation enjoys a preferential VAT rate.
  • Whatever they say in the Central Bank that the ruble is less and less dependent on oil prices, experts believe otherwise. Analysts warn that one should not be naive to believe that the price of oil will rise in the long term. By the end of 2018, OPEC countries may reconsider their attitude to oil production restrictions, and the United States will once again increase the production of shale deposits. In this case, the price will fall quite significantly. The government of the Russian Federation should abandon populist measures and start replenishing the treasury exclusively by fiscal methods. Funds should be directed to structural modernization, reducing the country's dependence on oil exports.

Every day, many processes take place in the economy that affect the level of prices and the well-being of the population. One of the most significant economic phenomena can be considered the level of inflation.

So, inflation in Russia in recent years is the topic of this publication.

What is inflation?

Inflation is an economic phenomenon in which there is an increase in the level of consumer prices over a long period of time. If it increases, then over time it may turn out that the same amount of money can buy much less goods compared to the previous period. That is, purchasing power decreases, and money depreciates.

Inflation is divided into three types:

  • moderate or creeping (up to 10% per year),
  • galloping (10-50%),
  • hyperinflation (from 50%).

Moderate is an adequate phenomenon and is considered a sign of the normal functioning of the economy. Namely:

  • commodity production,
  • additional issue of banknotes,
  • export-import relations.

Today, inflation in Russia after four months was 1.2%.

If there is an indicator above 10% in the country, unfavorable processes occur in the economy, which entail an increase in prices and a decrease in consumer ability.

The following factors have a negative impact on the inflation rate:

  1. Reducing the value of the national currency against world currencies - the euro and the dollar.
  2. An increase in the price of imported goods. It occurs due to an increase in the cost of raw materials and components, which leads to an automatic increase in prices.
  3. Additional emission of money, which is carried out in order to balance the money supply in circulation or for lending to state enterprises.
  4. Government budget deficit - expenditures exceed revenues.
  5. Decreased export of goods. This could be observed after the application of Western sanctions, which limited the Russian Federation in the markets for commercial products.

Often, the increase in wages and social benefits entails a rapid increase in market prices and utility tariffs. However, this indicator is controversial and it cannot be unambiguously attributed to influencing factors. Salaries and pensions should be indexed annually. So the state makes a small allowance, taking into account last year's price index.

Inflation rate in Russia in 2018

The annual rate is derived by summing the monthly inflation indices. After four months, according to Rosstat, the inflation index in Russia in 2018 amounted to:

  • January - 0.31,
  • February - 0.21,
  • March - 0.29,
  • April - 0.38.

Consider the reasons that influenced the price index of each month.

  • In January 2018, the price index stopped at 0.31. Most experts believe that the January figure was greatly influenced by the increase in prices for transport and housing and communal services, which are usually indexed in January and July (every six months).
  • The February price index fell to 0.21. It corresponds to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development. In February, there was an increase in prices for seasonal goods (on average by 0.4%), the level of prices for housing and communal services increased by 0.1%. There was no increase in gasoline prices, which served as a deterrent to a significant increase in this indicator.
  • In March, the growth of the index accelerated somewhat. There is an increase in the price of food products by 0.5%. There is a significant increase in prices for fruits and vegetables: on average, vegetables have risen in price by 15%, fruits by 5%. Prices for housing and communal services continued the trend of last month - 0.1%. Gasoline and other fuels remained unchanged. Also in March, there was a jump in the exchange rate of foreign currencies against the ruble, which contributed to the March inflation index.
  • The first half of April led to an increase in food prices by about 0.5%. And in the second half, their growth slowed down and amounted to 0.1% (seasonal goods began to become cheaper). At the same time, in April there was an increase in gasoline prices by 0.4-0.5%. And the adopted US sanctions had a negative impact on the ruble, which fluctuated between 62-65 rubles / dollar and 77-80 rubles / euro. The combination of rising prices and negative economic events accelerated the growth of inflation, as a result of which the April price index reached 0.38 (the highest value on a monthly basis).

Given these figures, financial analysts are planning annual inflation at 3.5-4%.

Forecast for 2019

Not even half of 2018 has yet passed, but financial analysts and economists are already building inflation forecasts for next year. So, according to their calculations, the average inflation rate will be slightly more than 4%.

The head of the Central Bank, E. Nabiullina, considers an acceptable level of inflation in the region of 4%. She bases her forecasts on the stabilization of the level of food prices, which was achieved through investment in the agricultural sector.

In general, the forecast of the Central Bank for 2019 is quite optimistic. The opinion of experts from the Analytical Credit Rating Agency is not so positive: the inflation rate will exceed 4% in 2019. The forecast takes into account possible force majeure in the economy, which may cause an increase in prices and tariffs; the impact of economic sanctions on foreign trade, the exchange rate against the value of the ruble. Representatives of the agency give an inflation forecast of 4.4%.

Another important opinion is the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development. Thanks to monthly financial analytics, the study of prices in the domestic and foreign markets, the specialists managed to predict a completely optimistic model for 2019. According to their data, oil quotes are growing, and the pledged cost of $44/barrel is already irrelevant, because the average price is $50-60 per unit of volume! If we calculate and recalculate the target figure ($44), inflation will be no more than 2-3% in 2019, and next year's budget will become in surplus (revenues will exceed expenses).

Time will tell which forecast turned out to be the most accurate.

Official Rosstat data in the table

The monthly dynamics of inflation in Russia since 1991 is shown in the table. So, according to the table, you can understand which years were crisis in the country's economy.

The deflator index is a coefficient that reflects the change in consumer prices for goods, works and services when recalculating the current value into constant prices. We tell you how to calculate the deflator, how to use it in public procurement, and what are the forecast deflator indices of the Ministry of Economic Development until 2020.

What is meant by deflator

Price index and deflator are identical concepts that are used by experts to calculate the final cost of goods, works or services. The deflator is the value used to convert current economic indicators to constant prices.

This is a coefficient that is set annually and calculated for several periods in advance, being the basis for state forecasting of economic development in future periods. For example, the 2020-2020 deflator index was predictively calculated back in 2017. The deflator is necessary when calculating key macroeconomic indicators - the gross domestic and national product (GDP and GNP), the accumulation fund, the consumer price index (CPI), the dynamics of the physical volume of consumption, and many others.

Specialists of the Ministry of Economic Development calculate sectoral indices taking into account the price level for goods, works and services recorded in the previous period. The coefficient is set annually and fixed by the administrative documents of the ministry. Thus, the indicator for 2020 was determined by the Order of the Ministry of Economic Development No. 579 of October 30, 2017, and the official deflator index for 2020 of the Ministry of Economic Development has not yet been published, but is expected in the near future.

The procedure and methodology for calculating the coefficient is regulated by the regulations of the Government of the Russian Federation - the rules for calculating forecast values ​​are specified in Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 1234 dated 11/14/2015, as well as in the Order of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia dated 06/01/2018 No. activities (in the implementation of the state defense order).

To find out the deflator index, the calculation formula is the result of the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP multiplied by 100.

In turn, the GDP deflator index (calculation formula) is the following mathematical calculation: the value of the basket of GDP at current prices / the value of the basket of GDP at base year prices × 100%.

Since the formula for calculating the coefficient uses data on all goods, works and services produced in the country, the calculated value of the deflator reflects the real dynamics of the price level in the economy. When calculating the index, price movements are also taken into account, taking into account changes in the country's production structure, actual volumes of GWS output in physical terms and other indicators recorded in the reporting period.

The Paasche aggregate index is calculated as follows:

By calculating the value of the Paasche price index, you can analyze the change in price indicators for goods, works and services of the reporting period. compared to the base prices for similar product categories sold in the reporting period. Thus, the Paasche coefficient illustrates the degree of appreciation or, conversely, the reduction in the cost of manufactured products.

With the help of the GDP deflator, calculated according to the Paasche formula, one can also track the inflation rate. In the event that the calculated value is greater than 1 (or greater than 100%, if the calculation is carried out as a percentage), then inflation in the country has increased; if the calculated indicator is below 1 (or 100%), then the inflation rate has decreased.

Deflator in 2020 - forecast values

The deflator index for 2020-2021 has not yet been officially published by the Ministry of Economic Development, however, forecast values ​​in various production areas have already been presented. At the same time, the specified values ​​of the coefficient for future periods will still be adjusted by the specialists of the ministry, taking into account recent economic changes and social reforms, such as pension (raising the retirement age) and tax (increasing excises on fuel).

Upcoming events will directly affect the deflator indices of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2020. But when developing a budget and planning procurement activities for the next year and planning periods, customer organizations can use the already existing coefficient values ​​calculated by the ministry's specialists.

Let's present the calculated consumer price index, which characterizes the level of inflation, and deflator indices for 2020-2021 in the table.

Industries 2018 2020 2020 2021
Production, transmission and distribution of electricity, gas, steam and hot water 109,0 107,1 106,7 106,7
Mining 108,7 106,5 106,0 106,2
Manufacturing industries 106,8 105,4 105,1 105,0
Industry 107,6 105,9 105,3 105,5
Construction 106,8 105,9 105,2 104,9
Agriculture 105,3 104,2 103,9 103,8
Freight transport 107,0 106,0 105,7 105,6
Investments in fixed assets (capital investments) 106,9 105,5 105,! 104,8
Retail turnover 104,9 103,9 103,5 103,7
Paid services to the population 106,9 106,2 105,6 105,7
Inflation (CPI) average annual 104,7 104,4 104,2 104,1

The index for consumer goods is planned at 104.2. Retail electricity prices will be indexed at 109.1.

Also on the official website of the Ministry of Economic Development are the indices that will be used in 2020 for tax purposes:

  • UTII - 1.915;
  • USN - 1.581;
  • personal income tax - 1, 729;
  • tax on property of individuals - 1,518;
  • patent - 1,518;
  • trading fees - 1,317.

Thus, in many industrial and manufacturing sectors, a gradual decrease in the coefficient is observed. So, after calculating the deflator index for 2020 (Ministry of Economic Development), construction and construction work will be calculated with a coefficient lower than in the current, 2020.

Deflator in purchases under 44-FZ

When public procurement is carried out within the framework of Law 44-FZ, indices are used in the calculation and justification of the NMTsK (Letter of the Ministry of Economic Development No. D28i-1688 of 06/22/2016). The customer calculates the initial (maximum) price of the contract in accordance with the provisions of Art. 22 44-FZ.

When substantiating the NMTsK calculated using the market analysis method, it is necessary to use annual deflator coefficients, since, in accordance with Part 3 of Art. 22 44-FZ, information on the cost of goods, works, services should be analyzed taking into account price and commercial offers comparable with the base period.

When planning the procurement budget for 2020 and subsequent periods and justifying the NMCC, the sectoral deflator is used in accordance with the Forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation until 2024. This document contains forecast indicators of the index by type of economic activity both for the next year and for the planning period 2020-2024.

Use of the deflator in civil works procurement

Indices are also used by customers when determining the initial (maximum) price based on the design and estimate method (part 9 of article 22 44-FZ) when making purchases for construction, reconstruction, overhaul (Letter of the Ministry of Finance No. 24-01-10 / 72553 dated 11/03/2017). The deflator index for 2020 for estimates is also indicated in the socio-economic forecast. At the moment, the coefficient has a value of 105.0.

When concluding a construction contract with a single supplier, the contracting authority must also calculate the cost of the contract on the basis of Part 9 of Art. 22 44-FZ - by design and estimate method.

Regardless of whether the customer concludes a contract with a single supplier or conducts tenders, the NMTsK (contract price) is calculated by the specialist responsible for procurement in the institution, taking into account the Methodological Recommendations approved by Order of the Ministry of Economic Development No. 567 dated 02.10.2013.

Pricing and estimated rationing in the field of urban planning is regulated by the provisions of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, namely Article 8.3. Deflator coefficients are used when calculating the estimated cost of an object by years of implementation (as part of the implementation of a federal investment project). The NMCC is determined in accordance with the calculated estimate of construction work (Article 22), while the calculation takes into account the base version of the index from the socio-economic forecast.

In the event that construction is carried out using federal budget funds provided for under the federal targeted investment program, then when determining the NMCC, it is recommended to set the initial (maximum) price within the volume of capital investments allocated by the main manager for the implementation of such an investment project (clause 6.3 Methodological recommendations, approved by RF PP No. 427 dated May 18, 2009).

At the same time, if, according to the results of checking the reliability of determining the estimated cost of such objects, the estimate for the years of construction, calculated in the prices of the corresponding years using deflators, does not exceed the amount of allocated capital investments, then the NMCC for construction work is formed based on the specified estimated cost (clause 6.4 of the Guidelines ).

The deflator index for 2020 in construction should also be used when calculating the cost of design work (clause 1.7 of the Guidelines) for the correct planning of future capital investments.

Deflator in purchases under 223-FZ

Deflators within the framework of 223-FZ can be used for the following purposes: if the value of the contract has been adjusted due to price growth (inflation) in accordance with the forecast indicators of the coefficient, then this is the basis for changing the essential terms of the contract. At the same time, the contracting authority is obliged to prescribe such a possibility in its procurement regulations. An example of such a procurement provision can be found below.

The use of the deflator index in the state defense order

The index is also used in the implementation of the state defense order. In the process of planning the budget for the State Defense Order for future periods, setting prices for products, as well as for calculating and justifying the NMCC, sectoral deflator coefficients are used. Deflators in the state defense order in 2020 are normalized by Order of the Ministry of Economic Development No. 276 of 06/01/2018.

The key aspects of using the index in the field of state defense orders are:

  1. Determining the forecast price, the price of the state contract when purchasing under the state defense order from a single supplier.
  2. Formation of the forecast price and NMTsK for the implementation of orders under the State Defense Order.

The application of the coefficient applies to the formation of forecast prices for the development, manufacture, maintenance, repair and disposal of products supplied under the State Defense Order, as well as goods, works and services included in the lists of products with regulated pricing.

The provisions of the regulatory documentation for the state defense order do not apply to the purchase of food products. NMTsK for the corresponding state order should be determined in accordance with Art. 22 44-FZ. The priority method for calculating the initial (maximum) price is the market analysis method (part 6 of article 22 44-FZ). Based on part 3 of Art. 22, in order to calculate the NMTsK using comparable market prices, the state customer needs to use a deflator to bring data on the prices of goods, works or services to the appropriate values.

Thus, the use of the deflator coefficient is mandatory when justifying the NMCC within the framework of the law 44-FZ.

Every year in Russia, as in other countries, there is an increase in prices. Products, housing and communal tariffs, services, education in a word are becoming more expensive. At the same time, the level of wages remains unchanged or changes so insignificantly that it becomes incomparable with the rise in prices. What future inflation forecast for 2019 does the government promise?

Definition of inflation

First, we need to define what inflation is. This is the depreciation (devaluation) of public money circulating within the country due to their excessive amount. That is, there is an increase in prices for all types of goods and services. And this means that for the same amount of money you buy less goods than before. Money depreciates and the purchasing power of citizens decreases.

There are special indicators by which inflation is calculated. One of them is the inflation index, which is also called the consumer price index (CPI). It shows the change in the price level for the most common goods among the population, i.e., the consumer basket. The CPI is calculated by specialists from the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank (Central Bank of Russia).

What will affect the growth of inflation next year:

  • Increase in VAT (Value Added Tax) from January 1, 2019.
  • The likelihood of a sales tax (in addition to VAT).
  • Rising prices for fuel and energy.
  • Emission (printing additional money supply).
  • The outflow of funds from the country.
  • Sanctions.

The main risk remains the dependence of oil prices on world market prices, which are highly unstable and subject to sharp fluctuations. The fall in world oil prices will lead to the devaluation of the ruble against other world currencies. This means that it will lead to an increase in prices for imported goods, an increase in tariffs and taxes, and emissions.

What are index deflators?

The deflator is a coefficient that shows the change in the cost of goods, both for national and industrial purposes. Simply put, it shows the ratio of the former price to the current one. For conversion, two indicators are used:

  • GDDP (Gross Domestic Product Deflator).
  • GNP (Gross Domestic Product Deflator).

The indicators obtained using these indices show changes in the volume of production of goods and services in the country. By studying these changes, it is possible to predict and plan the development of the economy. These calculations are handled by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development and published on its website.

Forecast of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia

Each of us wondered what awaits Russia in the coming year. In what direction will the country's economy change, and how will the well-being of the population change? The Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank, as well as other departments and structures involved in calculations and forecasts of the level of the state of the economy, can answer these questions.

The Central Bank of Russia is taking measures aimed at stabilizing and containing prices, one of which is to increase the key rate. But despite this, the forecasts for the next year for the Central Bank are disappointing and inflation will be up to 5.5%.

According to official data from the Ministry of Economic Development, the projected inflation for 2019 will be 4.3%. Based on this indicator, the government formed the country's budget for the next year. It should be noted that this figure is slightly different from the government's target of 4%.

The Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) generates statistical information about changes related to the economy. The inflation forecast from Rosstat in 2019 will be:

Year Min. Base Max.
2019 2.1% 3.5% 4.1%

Inflation will remain in the range of 4-4.5%, the Ministry of Finance predicts. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation believes that the Central Bank’s forecasts for 2019 of 5.5% are overstated and pessimistic. The discrepancy in figures suggests that the Central Bank made forecasts based on assumptions of lower oil prices and other indicators.

It is not clear who to believe, because the expected inflation rate for the next 2019 is very different in different departments. Discrepancies are associated with difficulties, and sometimes impossibility, to predict certain events.

Independent experts' forecasts for 2019

If state institutions and the government assume the level of inflation next year within the acceptable range of 3.5-4.5%, then the opinions of independent experts are not so optimistic.

Analysts from FxPro see the problem in the implementation of government measures that will reduce economic growth and increase inflationary phenomena:

  • Increasing VAT.
  • Raising the retirement age (this bill is being actively considered).
  • Budget spending on various mega-buildings.
  • Unwillingness to rebuild the economy (its dependence on oil prices).

Analysts from the Institute. Gaidar adds sanctions, low prices for oil products, the instability of the dollar and difficulties in the country's agricultural complex caused by bad weather to this list. All these processes will lead to the fact that inflation will be 5%, and possibly even higher.

How will the economic situation in the country affect ordinary citizens? To stabilize the economy, the government can use the following options:

  • Emission (printing new money).
  • Increasing taxes.
  • Reducing social benefits in various areas.
  • Resumption of privatization measures.

It is clear that such measures will be applied if the state fails to adapt the economy to future risks and find a way out of the situation.

There are other forecasts, more rosy. With a consistently high oil price, the inflation rate will gradually decrease and the purchasing power of the population will begin to grow again, the well-being of citizens will improve.

In any case, the government is trying to smooth out the negative processes and make life easier for ordinary citizens. Thus, at the suggestion of the president, changes were made to the pension legislation of the Russian Federation. They will allow the government to carry out measures to index (increase) social benefits by 7% and prevent inflation of pensions in the coming 2019. Even despite the jump in prices, which experts suggest at the beginning of next year, future payments will allow pensioners to feel secure. Money to increase pensions, incorporated in the Federal state. a budget whose income exceeds its expenditures.

The forecast of something always has refinements and is not a constant value. Now there has been a positive trend in the future development of the country's economy, if the price of oil does not change and new sanctions are not introduced. Any of these changes will immediately affect the inflationary process. The size of the projected inflation in Russia for 2019 is a hot debate and disagreement among experts. Which of them was closer to reality, we will know very soon.

Have questions?

Report a typo

Text to be sent to our editors:

Send