In a state of siege: what has changed during the week of the blockade of Qatar. Reconciliation with sediment
A year ago, four Arab countries severed diplomatic relations with Qatar and declared a blockade on it. The emirate was accused of supporting terrorists, interfering in the internal affairs of Arab countries and having ties with Iran. However, Doha believes that the independent foreign policy pursued by Qatar is to blame. Despite the boycott and blockade, the emirate not only survived, but, according to many experts, became stronger
The capital of Qatar, Doha - aerial view
Qatar wants to join NATO
On June 5, 2017, Saudi Arabia (KSA), Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt withdrew their ambassadors from Doha, closed Qatar's only land border and banned Qatari aircraft from flying into their airspace and ships from entering ports, i.e. declared a real blockade. In addition, they demanded that Qatari citizens return home within two weeks and ordered their citizens who lived in Qatar to return. A year has passed since then. Time to take stock. The prevailing view among independent experts is that they are disappointing for the anti-Qatari Quartet...
At the end of May last year, the KSA and the UAE suddenly banned all Qatari media and Al Jazeera in the first place. The reason was a report by Qatar News Agency that the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, allegedly admitted that the emirate has tense relations with the United States and that Iran is an Islamic power. Doha immediately denied the information and stated that the news agency's website had been hacked, but Riyadh rejected the explanation and severed diplomatic and other relations with Qatar. Abu Dhabi, Manama (Bahrain) and Cairo followed suit.
The Arab Quartet closed all borders with Qatar, expelled it from the coalition waging war in Yemen, and handed over a list of 13 demands. The Qataris rejected the ultimatum as "unrealistic" and unworthy of a sovereign state. They were required to stop supporting terrorist organizations, close the Turkish military base, stop interfering in the internal affairs of neighboring states, compensate the members of the quartet for "losses", close Al Jazeera and a number of other media criticizing the KSA; etc. The actions of the KSA, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt were described in Doha as "having no legal justification." Their main goal, the Qataris declared, is an encroachment on sovereignty and independent international politics.
Despite all efforts and, first of all, the undoubted financial and economic damage caused by the boycott and blockade, Riyadh failed to bring the small, but very proud and rich emirate to its knees. This view is held not only by the Qataris themselves, but also by most independent observers. Many of them believe that the economy of Qatar has survived, and the influence in the Middle East has increased.
Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdel Rahman bin Jassim Al Thani said on the anniversary of the blockade that Qatar has become stronger than a year ago, and stressed that Doha is open to dialogue. The blockade, the Qatari Foreign Ministry is sure, harms the Arab world and benefits only its opponents. The chief Qatari diplomat also spoke with undisguised irony about the "imaginary victories" of the enemies.
"It's been a year," he wrote on his Twitter page. - The people of Qatar have become stronger. We hear a lot of talk about the supposed victories of our adversaries and the isolation of Qatar, but after a year of blockade, reality proves otherwise.”
Clear evidence that the year of the blockade had no effect on the independence of Qatar's foreign policy is, for example, Doha's desire to buy S-400 air defense systems from Russia. Despite the objections of the West and neighbors and the direct threat of Riyadh to start almost a war, Doha does not intend to concede. This was stated to Al Jazeera by the head of the Foreign Ministry of Qatar, who stressed that the acquisition of weapons is a sovereign matter of an independent state. Qatar's ambassador to Moscow said the era of jungle law based on threats is over.
The Saudis are so afraid that the Qataris will arm themselves with S-400s that King Salman even turned to French President Emmanuel Macron for help and asked him to persuade Doha to refuse to buy Russian air defense systems. By the way, Riyadh itself signed a contract for the purchase of S-400 from Russia last spring.
By the way, the desire to arm themselves with Russian missiles did not prevent the State Minister for Defense of Qatar, Khaled bin Mohammed Attiya, from declaring in an interview with the military magazine Altalaya about his desire to join ... NATO.
Of course, in the capitals of the quartet they do not consider themselves losers. Opponents of Qatar are sure that they will put pressure on the willful emirate. In Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Manama and Cairo, for example, they indicate that Doha is not in the mood for interference in the internal affairs of Libya, Yemen, Iraq and Egypt. They are especially pleased that Qatar, thanks to the boycott and blockade of its neighbors, is now forced to deal with its own economy, and not get involved in their internal affairs, in the UAE, the main enemy of Qatar along with the KSA.
Washington and Moscow for the speedy settlement of the conflict
A year ago, there were rumors that the blockade of Qatar was almost “blessed” by Donald Trump. There were grounds for such a conclusion, because Riyadh and Abu Dhabi decided to break off relations with Doha a few days after the visit of the American president. In addition, immediately after the blockade was announced, Trump supported it.
However, the subsequent behavior of the American president once again confirmed that one should not lose vigilance with him for a minute, because he can make a 180-degree turn at any moment. Apparently, the advisers told him about the situation in the Middle East and about America's relationship with Qatar. Thus, the al-Udeid air base, equipped with the most modern communication and control systems, houses the headquarters of the US Central Command and the US Air Force Command, and also deploys about 10,000 US military personnel.
Some time after the approval of the actions of the KSA and the UAE, Mr. Trump, in his usual manner, changed his attitude towards the conflict and began to advocate for its end. After meeting with the Qatari emir at the UN General Assembly in New York, he organized a tripartite telephone conversation between the parties concerned. Unfortunately, nothing came of such a straightforward attempt to reconcile the conflicting parties - the Qataris and the Saudis began to accuse each other in a matter of minutes.
Now there is, if not an obvious move by Washington to the side of Doha, then at least an obvious desire to resolve the conflict as quickly as possible. This, in addition to the “peaceful” tone of the White House, is evidenced by the bilateral talks between President Trump and the Emir of Qatar in April this year in the White House.
Russia also believes that the crisis in the Persian Gulf does not benefit any of its participants and destabilizes the situation in the region. The Russian Foreign Ministry calls for a speedy settlement of the conflict, but emphasizes that this is an internal affair of its participants.
David vs Goliath
Putting forward ultimatum demands, Riyadh probably deliberately included in it items that Doha should have rejected, if we recall its attitude to sovereignty. Naturally, the quartet secured itself in case the leadership of Qatar got scared and agreed to comply with the ultimatum. In Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, they decided to accuse Doha of deceit in this case: to agree to fulfill the terms of the ultimatum, but in fact not to fulfill them. It follows from this that the KSA and its allies initially tried to turn Qatar into a kind of vassal state that cannot pursue an independent foreign policy. Obviously with the same goal, the quartet, simultaneously with the blockade, launched a large-scale propaganda campaign in Western capitals in order to present Qatar as the main accomplice and financier of international terrorism. In Riyadh and Abu Dhabi they really wanted to turn public opinion against Doha both in the West and in the Arab world. However, the fighting on the propaganda front produced a boomerang effect and brought victory to Qatar.
According to Foreign Policy, citing its sources in Qatar itself, Doha has spent about $1.5 billion on the propaganda war over the past year, i.e. about the same as the quartet. That's just the effectiveness of their use in Qatar is an order of magnitude higher.
Qatar promptly neutralized the enemy's main weapon - Doha's connections with Islamic extremists. Doha has recently sharply reduced ties with extremist groups in Syria, which, naturally, has raised its prestige in the international arena.
Another reason for Qatar's success in the propaganda war with adversaries was the rise of Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, who became the crown prince of Saudi Arabia a little over two weeks after the crisis began. The crown prince's crackdown on rivals has played into the hands of the Qataris because it has often overshadowed other regional developments and issues. We should not forget the criticism that he was subjected to as the main instigator of the war in Yemen, which began two months after his appointment in January 2015 as Minister of Defense of the KSA.
The exclusion of Doha from the coalition fighting against the Houthis, immediately after the blockade was announced, also increased the authority of Qatar, because the war in Yemen is not condemned except in palaces in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Initially, by the way, Qatar treated her, to put it mildly, coolly and joined the coalition with the sole purpose of not annoying Riyadh once again.
The agency responsible for propaganda in Qatar turned out to be head and shoulders above the opponent's propagandists. The Qataris managed to extract considerable dividends from the rapprochement between the KSA and Israel on the basis of mutual hatred towards Iran. They quite convincingly and, most importantly, effectively showed the public opinion in the Arab world that it is not Tehran that poses a threat to the political changes provoked by the Arab Spring of 2011, but the anti-Iranian Sunni coalition led by Saudi Arabia. While Riyadh and its allies continue to fight Islamist and revolutionary movements in the Arab world, Qatar is now increasingly trying to present itself as a champion of change and reform. This position helps him to present himself as a victim of Saudi perfidy and its desire for hegemony in the Arab world.
Throughout the past year, Doha behaved "nobly" and tried to refrain from petty revenge and exchange of injections with opponents as much as possible. The Qataris, not without success, tried to pursue a balanced and calm policy and follow international law to the last letter, which further strengthened their position in the region and the world.
The desire to preserve sovereignty allowed Qatar to maintain an independent position on the issue of the nuclear deal with Iran and not publicly support the US unilateral withdrawal from it, unlike the Quartet. This strengthened his authority and allowed him to enter the numerous camp of European and Asian countries in favor of maintaining the deal.
Plays, for sure, a certain role and the psychological factor. The forces of the participants in the conflict are not comparable either in terms of the size of the territory, or in terms of any other parameters, except perhaps wealth. Against the background of Saudi Arabia and its allies, Qatar seems like David. Of course, the sympathies of ordinary people, if we talk about pure psychology and discard geopolitical and other considerations, are on the side of the weaker participant in the conflict, i.e. Qatar.
The quartet failed to choke the enemy with hunger
Speaking of the consequences of the blockade, one cannot, of course, stop at the economy. From this point of view, the negative consequences, of course, are felt in Qatar, but there are also many advantages.
The quartet must have had high hopes for the emirate's heavy dependence on food imports. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi hoped that empty store shelves would make Qataris more accommodating. However, here too, the KSA and the UAE were in for an unpleasant surprise. In the first hours after the blockade was announced, the shelves of stores were really empty, but the very next day they again pleased with the abundance of products.
In 2014, the KSA, the UAE and Bahrain already recalled their ambassadors from Doha. Then the conflict was quickly resolved, but the lesson went to the benefit of the government of Qatar - in the event of such events, a state food reserve was created, which was very useful in June 2017. Then Iran and Turkey came to the rescue, sharply increasing food supplies to Qatar. Qataris began to raise livestock and grow vegetables for sale at farmers' markets. Milk and yogurt from Qatari cows, vegetables from Bangladesh, fruits from Iran have replaced Saudi vegetables and dairy products. Now residents of the emirate are no worse than Russians are familiar with the word "import substitution" and talk a lot about "economic security". Of course, the crisis affects the daily life of the Qataris, especially ordinary people, but still the majority understands that it is actually about their independence, and supports the government's tough stance. The past year has sharply raised the authority of the 37-year-old emir, who has become a folk hero. Many Qataris are even calling for June 5 to be declared a national holiday.
Qatar has shown an impressive ability to turn a crisis into an opportunity to improve food security, social cohesion, and strengthen the economy and finances. In October 2017, i.e., in the most difficult period, according to the IMF, Qatar's economy was the fastest growing in the Persian Gulf. Last year it grew by 2.1%, and this year the Fund's economists gave an even more encouraging forecast - 2.6%.
Of course, Doha was helped by an airbag full of oil and gas billions. It should be recalled that the emirate is considered one of the richest states on the planet and has been ranked first in terms of per capita income for several years. Qatar has solid oil reserves, and in terms of gas reserves it is second only to Russia and Iran and is the undisputed world leader in the export of liquefied gas. Recently, for example, contracts were signed for gas supplies to Bangladesh and Vietnam.
The authorities are hastily carrying out reforms aimed at attracting foreign capital to the country. The government is improving conditions for foreign investors and hopes to attract more tourists by making it easier to issue visas. The Qatar Consultative Assembly (unicameral parliament) is currently discussing a law that will allow foreigners to buy real estate in the emirate, as well as open companies without the participation of local partners.
A month into the crisis, Qatari Finance Minister Ali Sharif al-Emadi told the Times his country was too wealthy to worry about angry neighbors.
“Our sovereign wealth fund is 2.5 times Qatar's GDP,” he said. - We have large reserves in Qatar Central Bank. We should not forget about the strategic reserve of the Ministry of Finance.”
Despite the crisis, Qatar is investing $200 billion in infrastructure projects. To protect the banking system and the exchange rate of the Qatari rial, the Ministry of Finance allocated $ 50 billion from the sovereign fund. The financial system feels quite confident. In April, a successful auction was held, at which government bonds worth $12 billion were sold.
The Quartet failed to bring the economy and finances of Qatar to its knees, but the crisis, of course, is evident. If in 2017 the budget deficit was 1.6%, then this year it is projected to increase to 2.8%. The vast majority of government agencies and private companies are cutting budgets and freezing or lowering the salaries of employees.
Gas sovereignty
A year into the crisis, Doha is calling for dialogue, which is expected to resume in September. However, the Qataris demand that the dialogue be fair, and not take place, as it was during the past year in the form of an ultimatum. So far, all the efforts of the Arab mediators represented by the Kuwaiti Emir and the Sultan of Oman to reconcile the opponents have not yielded results. As for Washington, American diplomats now probably understand that the task of reconciliation, which they, of course, strive for, is very difficult. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who came to Riyadh to reconcile the KSA and Qatar, was recently convinced of this from his own experience. The peacekeeping mission did not bring results.
In Doha, of course, they understand that the forces of the parties are unequal and that in the long term the emirate will face very difficult times. The Qatari authorities are now deciding how to proceed. Most likely, they will continue to defend their sovereignty in the hope of the fragility of the quartet, because despite all the apparent unity, the alliance between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, the main driving force of the anti-Qatari coalition, is not as monolithic as they try to present it. Surely, Doha will continue to rely on the support of Ankara and especially Tehran. The longer the Gulf crisis lasts, the more Iran and Qatar will move closer. Qatar clearly intends to move closer to other Arab countries, which are worried about Riyadh's leadership habits that have sharply increased since Prince Mohammed came to power.
To survive in the unequal struggle, Qatar must continue to help the EU save the Iran nuclear deal. Doha should not despair of the failure of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which includes three of the four members of the quartet, which is already obvious even to the most optimistic. It is necessary to create new alliances - both political and economic. And not necessarily purely Arabic. One should try to strengthen security and sovereignty through economic cooperation with other countries. First of all, in the gas sector as the most developed in the Qatari economy. In this regard, it looks promising to return to the idea of creating a gas cartel with Russia, Algeria and Iran, which should be open to other countries that support Qatar now, such as Turkey.
In June 2017, several Arab countries simultaneously issued statements about the severance of diplomatic relations with Qatar. The small gas monarchy has been accused of supporting terrorist organizations and fueling regional conflicts. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt decided to bring the wayward state to its knees. Demands were made on Qatar and a deadline was set for their implementation.
When the ultimatum expired, to the surprise of many, the blockade failed. Qatar survived. Huge financial resources and skillful maneuvering in the external and internal political field helped him to survive. Later it became clear that, although the Qataris want an end to the siege, they are increasingly reluctant to participate in the Gulf Cooperation Council, since the agenda of the organization is dictated by Saudi Arabia.
Thus, the blockade, designed to force Qatar to return to the uniformity of the Arab countries of the Gulf, actually led to the formation of a new identity in Qatar. The new face of Qatar is different from the one that existed before June 2017, when the Qatari national identity was often mixed with transnational tribal ties. The behavior of neighbors has forced Qatar to search for and form its own national identity.
This was largely due to the behavior Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. From the very beginning of the blockade that struck like a bolt from the blue, Sheikh Tamim was the face of Qatar's resistance. He is even compared to Che Guevara in terms of the scale of the visual representation of the image of the emir from the walls of skyscrapers to local ice cream brands.
By refusing to capitulate to the ultimatum demands of the much more powerful Saudi-led bloc and insisting on Qatar's right to chart its own course, he has become a symbol of the nation that Qatar wants to become: modern, independent, and smart enough to overcome any obstacles. In short, the emir provoked the growth of national pride of the Qataris, which continues to embrace the entire country, forming its new identity.
The Emir's desire for independence, supported by his fellow citizens, is evident in the way Qataris have adapted to the changes since June 2017. Qatar's wealth softened the economic hardships that Saudi Arabia and its allies had hoped for. Turkey, Oman and other trading partners were more than willing to fill the Saudi hole in the Qatari market.
However, rather than simply importing these goods from alternative suppliers, an even more important outcome was the way in which the Qatari authorities chose to use the blockade to provide a long-term solution to the country's long-stated desire for self-sufficiency and food security.
Today, local fruits, vegetables and dairy products have become commonplace on the shelves of national supermarkets, and the “Made in Qatar” stamp speaks of self-sufficiency that Saudi Arabia and other countries have not often seen.
The blockade also led to a revival of Qatari culture. Before the blockade, it remained in the shadow of the cultural influence of other countries of the Persian Gulf. And now local artists, musicians and writers have come to the fore, and they have joined the information war, resisting information attacks that openly slander and discredit Qatar.
Thus, the protracted blockade did not achieve its goals. Those who predicted Qatar's quick surrender did not take into account the resilience of the Qatari people, did not take into account the factor of civic solidarity, believing that the similarity of race, religion, culture and commercial interests would be a more appropriate factor in forcing a change in Qatar's behavior in the interests of the majority of its neighbors.
Aidar Khairutdinov
The political crisis in the Arab world, caused by the isolation of Doha that began a week ago, has affected both the economy and social life, and not only the Qataris themselves. The blockade of one of the richest countries on the planet affected the activities of the Al Jazeera satellite channel and Qatar Airways.
The channel's broadcasting is blocked in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, its offices are closed in Jordan and Egypt. Saudi Arabia demanded that Doha change the administration of the channel and revise its policy so that it does not run counter to the interests of the Arab world in general and the Persian Gulf in particular.
Dissatisfied with the products of the channel and in Israel, according to the newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth. According to the publication, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is considering closing the TV channel's offices amid a growing diplomatic crisis. The newspaper claims that Netanyahu has already discussed this issue with representatives of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, Defense Ministry and intelligence agencies. . Walid Al-Omri, head of Al Jazeera Israel, said he would challenge the decision. “If attempts are made to stop our work in Israel and close our office here, we will appeal to the Supreme Court,” TASS quoted him as saying.
Food shortage
The transport blockade of Qatar by its closest neighbors is causing more and more fears that the state may be left without food supplies. In the first hours after the start of the blockade, the Qataris emptied supermarket shelves, fearing shortages. On Sunday, Iranian airline Iran Air said it had sent five planeloads of food to Qatar.
“At the moment, five planes have been sent to Qatar, each carrying about 90 tons of food, mainly vegetables and fruits. Another plane will be sent today. We plan to continue these flights as long as there is a need for them,” said the official representative of the Iranian air carrier Iran Air Nushabadi.
It is noted that three ships with 350 tons of products were also sent to Qatar from Iran.
Qatari businessman Mutaz al-Khayat, chairman of Power International Holding, plans to airlift 4,000 dairy cows from Australia and the US into the country to provide the emirate with dairy products if the blockade continues. This will require about 60 flights with stops in Turkey, Iran and Oman.
no-fly zone
The state airline Qatar Airways was also in a state of siege. Last week, the Saudi Arabian Civil Aviation Authority canceled the license of the Qatari airline and closed its offices. Following Riyadh, similar actions were taken by the Ministry of Civil Aviation of Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
The head of the company, Akbar al-Baker, said that the air carrier intends to complain to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), and US President Donald Trump is responsible for the blockade of the state.
“I would not like to comment on Trump's actions. I am extremely disappointed. The US should have taken the lead in trying to break this blockade. Instead, they are passively watching what is happening and thereby only add fuel to the fire, ”TASS quoted al-Baker as saying.
The head of Qatar Airways said that the company will challenge the decisions of the ministries of Saudi Arabia and Egypt in international instances.
“We have legal channels to resist. ICAO should intervene decisively, use its authority and recognize this as an illegal act, ”the head of the company emphasized.
Football diplomacy
The sudden blockade of Qatar is also causing concern in the world of sports, because in three years the World Cup is to be held there. The President of the International Football Federation (FIFA), Gianni Infantino, said that the organization he leads is ready to take part in the settlement of the diplomatic crisis around Qatar, if necessary.
“We see that Qatar is facing a diplomatic crisis. Nevertheless, I am optimistic and I am convinced that the situation in the region will return to normal. The main task of FIFA is to promote football, not to interfere in geopolitical issues. If FIFA can contribute to the settlement of the conflict, then, of course, we will offer our assistance, ”said Infantino.
Detective story
Recall that the main reason why a number of countries broke off diplomatic relations with the emirate was the text of the speech of the head of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, published on the website of the Qatar News Agency (QNA). The Sheikh made a number of controversial statements at the officer graduation ceremony in Doha.
In particular, Al Thani noted that "it would be unwise to have tense relations with Iran, which is a strong power and a guarantor of stability in the region." He also called the Tehran-backed Islamist group Hamas "the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people," while saying that Qatar allegedly acts as an intermediary between Hamas and Israel.
The emirate claims that the website of the agency, on which the words of Al Thani were published, was hacked by hackers.
However, subsequently, the American media circulated a version according to which “support for terrorism” refers to a billion-dollar ransom given by Doha to Iranian-linked Shiite militias from the Kataib Hezbollah organization, who captured 26 members of the Qatari royal family during falconry in 2015. This version remained unconfirmed until June 12, when Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said that the entire amount of the ransom for the release of the Qatari hostages kidnapped in 2015 was in the Central Bank in Baghdad.
“Let's be clear: this money is still in the Central Bank of Iraq. A special commission was formed, legal procedures were carried out, and we acted in accordance with Iraqi law. Not a single dollar has been spent, the funds are still in cases and remain under the control of the commission, ”he said.
Thus, he denied the information that the money was transferred to third parties. The prime minister also added that the authorities intend to dispose of them in accordance with Iraqi law.
Recall that Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Yemen, the interim government of Libya, the Republic of Maldives and the Republic of Mauritius broke off diplomatic relations with Doha due to alleged support by the emirate of terrorism, extremist ideology, hostile policies and interference in the affairs of Arab states. Some time later, the Comoros and Mauritania joined them, while Jordan and Djibouti lowered the level of diplomatic representation.
Despite this, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said on Tuesday that the measures imposed against Doha are not a blockade.
“The boycott of Qatar is not a blockade, we are exercising our sovereign right and are ready to send food and medical aid if needed. The seaports and airports of Qatar are open, the ban we have introduced applies only to Qatari aircraft, ”says al-Jubeir.
The Qatari Foreign Minister will meet with Sergey Lavrov to involve Moscow in resolving the conflict between Qatar and the Arab countries. However, Moscow is unlikely to become a mediator, experts say
On Saturday, June 10, Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdel Rahman bin Jassim al-Thani will arrive in Moscow, where he will meet with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. The situation around the rupture of diplomatic relations with Doha by a number of countries will take the central place in the agenda of the talks.
The meeting of diplomats was preceded by a telephone conversation that took place the next day, June 6, after the aggravation of the diplomatic conflict in the Persian Gulf. During the conversation, the heads of the foreign ministries of Russia and Qatar expressed serious concern over the emergence of yet another "hotbed of crisis" in the Middle East.
"The Beginning of the End of the Horrors of Terrorism"
Since the beginning of the week, ten states, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt, have severed diplomatic relations with Qatar, accusing Doha of interfering in the internal affairs of other countries, harboring the leaders of the Islamist association "Muslim Brotherhood", as well as in supporting and financing terrorist organizations - the Islamic State (IS) and Al-Qaeda (all of these organizations are banned in Russia).
Doha denies the accusations and considers them an encroachment on the sovereignty of the country. “We have been isolated because we are successful and progressive. Qatar is a platform for peace, not terrorism,” Qatari Foreign Minister According to him, Qatar "does not know the real reasons" for the escalation of the conflict. “If there were real reasons, this should have been brought up for discussion during the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] meeting, but this was not done, nor was this issue mentioned at the US-Arab summit in Riyadh” - Minister. Both meetings took place during a visit by US President Donald Trump to Saudi Arabia, two weeks before the Gulf diplomatic row erupted.
Trump's response to the Gulf crisis was not long in coming. Already on June 6, the American leader on his Twitter page: “During my recent trip to the Middle East, I declared the inadmissibility of further funding of radical ideology. The leaders pointed to Qatar – look!” During his visit to Riyadh, Trump also urged Arab and Muslim leaders to increase Iran's isolation. The American president said that Saudi action to isolate Qatar could be "the beginning of the end of the horrors of terrorism." Trump also urged the king of Saudi Arabia to make efforts to unite the countries of the Persian Gulf amid the escalation of the situation with Qatar, the BBC clarifies.
According to The Wall Street Journal, leading Arab countries are working on a list of requirements that Qatar will have to comply with to restore diplomatic and economic relations, said Arab and US officials involved in the discussions on the issue. One of the main requirements is a significant reduction in the volume of broadcasting of the Al Jazeera channel. In addition, according to the interlocutor of the publication, the Arab countries want to secure guarantees for Doha to stop financing extremist groups. They also demand that Doha break off relations with the political leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is headquartered in Qatar.
The first to break ties with Doha were announced on Monday, June 5, by Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Yemen and the Libyan interim government based in the east of the country. Later they were joined by the Comoros, Mauritania and Mauritius. The countries that opposed Qatar withdrew their diplomatic missions from Doha, closed land, air and sea communications with Qatar. The authorities of these countries have taken 48 hours for diplomats and 14 days for citizens of Qatar to leave their territory. The Jordanian government decided to reduce the level of diplomatic representation in Qatar and revoked the license to broadcast in the kingdom from the Qatari television channel Al Jazeera, one of the most popular in the Middle East. The Al Jazeera office was also closed in Saudi Arabia. In addition, Qatar was reproached for having links with Iran and supporting the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who carried out a coup d'état in 2015. In this regard, the Saudi-led coalition excluded Qatar from the operation to support the legitimate government in Yemen.
Welcome ceremony for King Salman at the Royal Court in Doha, Qatar. December 2016 (Photo: Naseem Zeitoon/Reuters)
"Independent foreign policy"
Tensions in relations between Qatar and Saudi Arabia arose far from now, but have been observed at least since the beginning of the "Arab Spring", when Qatar began to increasingly pursue an independent foreign policy, senior lecturer at the Higher School of Economics Leonid Isaev told RBC. The expert points to the three most important reasons for the renewal of the conflict. Saudi Arabia does not like the fact that Qatar supports those forces that oppose the Saudi regime, namely the religious community of the Muslim Brotherhood, the expert explains. Their cells are quite a serious opponent of the Saudi Arabian authorities, they openly oppose the Saudi leadership, moreover, they call its legitimacy into question.
The situation in the region escalated after excerpts from a speech attributed to Emir al-Thani of Qatar appeared on the website of the Qatar News Agency (QNA) at the end of May. It said that "it would not be wise to have tense relations with Iran, which is a strong power and a guarantor of stability in the region." Later, the director of QNA said that the site was hacked by hackers, and the published text was not true. The Qatar Foreign Ministry also denied the statements posted on the website of the publication, attributed to the emir. Isaev also points out that the developing Iranian-Qatari relations could serve as a pretext for a diplomatic crisis in the Persian Gulf. “Riyadh is fighting on all fronts against Iranian influence, while Qatar maintains amazing relations with Tehran,” the expert says. Saudi Arabia is annoyed by Qatar's blatant demarche, which is doing it openly, he added. Despite attempts to put pressure on Qatar, the country's authorities have stated that they are categorically against any interference in their foreign policy, which they will pursue an independent course in the future.
It is possible that Israel played a role in this crisis and was able to put pressure on the White House, writes Al-monitor. Tel Aviv, as the publication points out, has long been dissatisfied with Qatar's relations with Iran and the Palestinian movement Hamas. The movement's headquarters and its leader, Khaled Mashaal, moved from Damascus to Doha after the start of the Arab Spring, the Carnegie Moscow Center points out.
The conflict also has an economic background, Isaev notes. “Qatar, Iran and Russia are the three main lobbyists for the gas OPEC, the top three countries in terms of natural gas reserves,” Isaev notes. The main opponents of this "gas OPEC" are the United States, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The gas component of Iranian-Qatari cooperation plays a certain role in this conflict. Huge reserves of offshore gas fields in the Persian Gulf belong to Qatar. It is possible that the UAE and Saudi Arabia have some claims to gas fields and they are afraid of creating a gas cartel between Iran and Qatar, which will seriously compete with oil OPEC, Isaev said.
Palestinians rally in support of Qatar in the southern Gaza Strip (Photo: Zuma/Global Look Press)
Friends of Qatar
On Tuesday, June 6, Russian President Vladimir Putin, during a telephone conversation with the Emir of Qatar, confirmed “Russia's principled position in favor of resolving crisis situations by political and diplomatic methods. Russia's commitment to resolving the situation through dialogue was confirmed by Lavrov during a meeting with his Iranian counterpart, Javad Zarif, at the June 9 summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel also spoke out for the need to solve the problem of diplomatic isolation and blockade of Qatar.
Turkey also supported Qatar, taking the initiative to play the role of one of the mediators in resolving the conflict. On Thursday, June 8, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan approved a bill to send Turkish troops to Qatar, which was supported by the Turkish parliament a day earlier. An agreement to establish a Turkish military base in Qatar was signed in 2014, writes Al Jazeera. The base can accommodate up to 5 thousand people, but so far only 200 Turkish troops are stationed there. In addition to Turkey, Qatar has supported Iran, a geopolitical rival of Saudi Arabia. Tehran and Ankara promised to help Doha with food. Russia also expressed its readiness to increase food supplies to Qatar.
On June 7, the Turkish Foreign Minister and the President met with the Iranian Foreign Minister to discuss security issues in the region amid the economic and political blockade of Qatar. Isolating Doha will not help resolve conflicts in the region, Erdogan said, stressing that Qatar is a country that "is effectively fighting terrorists."
Ankara's decision to support Doha means that Turkey sees Qatar as one of the key partners in the region and is not going to change its policy, despite external circumstances, Can Kasapoglu, an expert at the EDAM Center for Economic and Foreign Policy Research in Istanbul, told Al Jazeera. Turkey seeks to be a security guarantor in Qatar and play a more active mediating role in reducing tensions amid political competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Volkan Ozdemir, an expert in the Department of Eurasian Studies at the Middle East Technical University in Ankara, told RBC.
Russia is ready to offer mediation services, if necessary, to resolve the conflict as soon as possible, but the question is how much Moscow can influence both sides of the conflict, Vasily Kuznetsov, an expert at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told RBC. “There is no great need for mediation in this conflict, because two sides are involved in it (Qatar and Saudi Arabia. — RBC) who know each other well and solve problems with each other usually directly. An opportunity for new cooperation opens up before Turkey and Russia, but it can be limited by two circumstances. “The first circumstance is the fact that Qatar is a GCC state. The second circumstance is geographical: Qatar’s only land border is with Saudi Arabia, therefore, most likely, this conflict will be resolved on a bilateral basis or on a multilateral basis within the framework of the GCC,” Kuznetsov notes.
Qatar's UN permanent representative Alia Al Thani said Thursday in an interview with The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal that the "anti-Qatari coalition" led by Saudi Arabia has withdrawn its 13 demands it made to the emirate a month ago. Instead, the countries put forward a new list of conditions for resuming relations with Qatar, which now contains only six items.
Qatar's Permanent Representative to the UN Aliya Al Thani, whose words are quoted on the official website of the country's Foreign Ministry, considers the coalition's decision to cancel its 13 demands the result of "pressure from the international community." She is convinced that these advances in resolving the current crisis situation are the desire of countries to maintain their reputation in the international arena, and not "a manifestation of goodwill or diplomatic flexibility."
The new list of requirements includes 6 points, instead of the previous 13. This was stated during a joint press conference in New York by the foreign ministers of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Bahrain. Now we are only talking about the fact that Qatar must “combat extremism and terrorism”, abandon “calls for intolerance and violence”, and also “comply with the agreements of 2013 and 2014 and all the outcomes of the Arab-American summit in Riyadh, which took place in May 2017. In addition, the foreign ministers separately noted that Qatar should "refuse to interfere in the internal affairs of other states and support illegal formations." This was reported by the UAE News Agency on Thursday.
Thus, the items on the withdrawal of the Turkish military base from the territory of the country and the severance of diplomatic relations with Iran have disappeared from the list of demands to Qatar. According to Boris Dolgov, senior researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, this trend is caused "mainly by the mediation of the United States and its allies, primarily France." “The United States has stated from the very beginning that they want to mitigate the conflict and are ready to mediate between the countries that issued the ultimatum and Qatar. And now you are seeing the result of such mediation,” he told Kommersant, recalling that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia have American military installations. The expert also noted that the desire of the coalition countries to “save their face” had a separate influence on the change in requirements, in case they had to change their position. “This conflict will end in the near future, since there are both the mentioned interests of the United States and its allies, as well as the Persian Gulf countries. Qatar is a member as a regional organization (Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf.- "b") and the Shield of the Peninsula military bloc, so the situation will be resolved soon,” Kommersant’s interlocutor is convinced.
Recall that for a month and a half the political crisis has been going on in the Arab world, comparable only to the boycott of Egypt after the conclusion of the Camp David agreements with Israel in 1979. One of the richest and most influential countries in the region, Qatar went into lockdown on June 5. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Yemen, the interim government of Libya, as well as the Maldives broke off diplomatic relations with him. Moreover, the first four states announced the expulsion of all Qatari nationals and the termination of transport links. The demarche took place shortly after the announcement on behalf of the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, of a statement about the need for rapprochement with Shiite Iran, the main geopolitical opponent of the Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf (in Doha they said that it appeared as a result of a hacker attack). The international community has repeatedly called on the parties to sit down at the negotiating table, and the Foreign Ministers of the United States, France, and Malaysia made a series of visits to the Gulf countries to resolve the situation.
Alexander Burygin