What to do if the same scenario repeats itself in life? Does history repeat itself in technical analysis? Does it repeat

Hello dear readers!

Today we will talk about the importance. Let's analyze one of the axioms of technical analysis and answer the question of whether it is worth considering history in your trading and what period to take into account.

I was prompted to write this article by a question from one of the blog readers (for which special thanks to him). And he sounded like this:

“How do you feel about history, should it be considered and how deeply? 2-4 years, or there is no point at all, and in general, how radically it changes, according to Elder, from 2 to 4 years”

Of course, this question can be answered in a nutshell (I actually did so in the letter), but let's try to “dig deeper” and understand the essence of this issue, because it is very important for understanding.

As you already know, technical analysis is based on theories of Charles Henry Dow, and the theory itself is based on three postulates. One of them says that history repeats itself(And what are the other two postulates? Write the correct answers in the comments :)).

Technical analysts argue that something that has influenced the price in the past and is reflected in the chart will definitely affect the price in the future. What is it connected with? With magic? Astrology? Fortune telling on coffee grounds or a crystal ball? Of course not! First of all, it is connected with psychology. With crowd psychology. And as you know, any market is a crowd, a very large crowd, where everyone pursues their own interests. More precisely, the interest of all participants is the same - making a profit, but the possibilities and means of achieving this goal are different.

So, technical analysis, referring to the fact that history repeats itself, does not try to predict the price behavior in the future, but to predict the reaction of people when the price approaches a particular value, thereby increasing the likelihood of a positive outcome of the transaction.

But I fundamentally disagree with the wording of this postulate. History never repeats itself 100%. I once came across a phrase: « history does not repeat itself. But she's like it.". Thanks to which, I rethought my understanding of technical analysis. We do not know and cannot know how the price will behave near one or another price level. How long will the price go to him? How long will this level break through (and will it be broken at all). How much will the price go in case of a breakdown?

In May 2006, a resistance level is formed (yellow area). After that, the price approached this level three more times, trying unsuccessfully to break through it (gray area). Then in November twice more and this time the breakdown happened. I'm sure that most of you in real trading mode would correctly draw exactly the same level and be sure that the price will return to it and interact with it in the future (the same history repeats itself). And now, pay attention, the question is: who in the real trading mode will be able to say with 100% certainty how the price will interact with this level? When exactly will this level be broken? If the breakouts are false, then how far the price will go in the direction of the breakout, etc.

I wonder if there are those who can answer these questions? 🙂

Okay, let's finish with philosophizing on the theme of the cyclical nature of history and move on to more prosaic matters.

What time period should be considered when analyzing historical data?

Frankly, I cannot answer this question unequivocally, and it is unlikely that he (the answer) exists. Here everyone is free to decide for himself, depending on his style of trading. If a day trader trades intraday on m15, then why should he analyze the history for the last 4 years? And if we are dealing with a swing trader trading on the weekly and monthly charts, then naturally he will also consider more distant horizons.

I can only tell by my example how I see the chart on my screen. Here is my expanded chart:

I analyze only what fits on one screen, I do not rewind the chart back into history (regardless of the time frame). For me, what is important is what is happening right now, and the farther back in history, the significance of the data decreases. Naturally, it is important to understand that if the price approaches some historical extreme, which last time was 10 years ago, then this is a very significant event. I'll show you with an example:

The same euro and the same daily bars. I marked the more important support levels for me with blue lines. These levels are drawn through extremes that were relatively recent. The red line is also a support level that the price may notice, but for me it is less important, since the extreme point through which it was drawn was dated back to December 2012. I think my logic is clear.

That's all. If you have any questions, then write in the comments or through the feedback form. I will definitely answer you. Thank you for your attention.

They often ask why events in my life are repeated? On whom does it depend: us or fate? Can it be stopped?

For example, a girl got a new job, and she really likes it. But some time passes, and there are plenty of reasons to drop everything and leave. Which is exactly what she does. Then the girl finds the next job. “Finally, it’s definitely mine!” - our heroine rejoices, “I am happy to run to the office in the morning, I’m ready to move mountains there!”. But after some time, everything is not the same again ... The girl leaves. This scenario is repeated over and over again.

Or in a relationship... You meet, meet completely different men, and as a result you notice the same development of events. They speak and act as if they had a deal. And you reproach yourself for "stepping on the same rake", choosing the wrong men.

Familiar situations?

And how many stories I have about women who marry alcoholics, drug addicts or gamers. How many people who are always in debt, how many girls who are cheated on. You probably recognized yourself in some similar story.

So why is this happening? Let's figure it out.

Why are scenarios repeated in life?

Someone will say: "Destiny!". Maybe you are right. But that's why such a fate went to you? How to change it? After all, it would be foolish to humble yourself and carry the cross all your life.

Imagine how many events (circumstances) must take place in such a way that you find yourself in this place and at this time. These same circumstances should develop not only for you. You say: “But I don’t want this! How can I create events and attract people into my life that I don’t like?”.

Every day you are faced with a choice. From insignificant moments: what time to leave the house, what meetings to schedule, which road to take, and so on ... To important ones: in which house to buy an apartment, where to go to work, whom to marry. The choice you make will determine what happens next in your life.

You may feel like a small decision can't change your life. I assure you it can!

Our life is like a cobweb in which each thread is a variant of the road. It leads in the direction you choose. Depending on this choice, you appear in certain places and meet certain people.

“The same events are repeated until the lesson is learned”

There is a theory that life or the universe gives us lessons. O the same events will be repeated until the lesson is learned. Moreover, if you remain blind and continue to behave in the same way in repeated events, the situation will worsen and the lesson will become tougher.

These events come to life, .

generic scenarios

"We all come from childhood." It is in childhood that our personality is formed. We are born to specific parents, in certain foundations and environments. Unconsciously, we accept as truth how relationships develop in the family. This "tracing paper" is transferred to our perception of other people, work, health.

Generic scenarios are very powerful. Our actions seem to be "programmed" to create just such situations. Can this be changed?

Life is a reflection of you

According to another theory, life— a mirror of you, and this means that the reasons must be sought within. So all the same, how to break the chain of recurring events and stop stepping on a rake?

In the language of psychology, fate is a life script. All moments of upbringing, attitudes, beliefs, fears, habits form a kind of life web. And having understood what is behind this or that event, you can change it.

By changing yourself, you change your life.

Works great with changing the negative script to the one we want. In one session, we work with a huge layer of life events, once and for all we change the attitude or traumatic experience passed down through the family line.

Believe me, you can change yourself, the events in your life. Become a director, create your film, play your part. You can live the fate you choose for yourself.

Your life is like a movie. Don't like the role? Bolder! Create your own, take on a new one. Remember: anyone can become anyone!

Have you met with such a situation when unpleasant situations are periodically repeated? What do you think it depends on, fate or the actions of the person himself? Often after such situations, thoughts begin to visit a person, and he begins to leave his comfort zone, begin to develop, and not degrade.

Recurring events are a sign that a person has not gone through and understood some life lesson. He can not . It may also be that we ourselves create recurring unpleasant situations in our lives with our behavior and our thoughts.

Look at yourself in the past and you will find that despite the fact that you change and develop, by and large you are exactly the same as you were 10, 20 or 40 years ago. You have the same character, the same reaction to events.

We live according to our own scenario of life, according to our picture of the world, and we are afraid to go beyond our beliefs and programs. Every year, people hope that next year they will be more lucky and something in life will begin to change for the better. Look at your life, at least for the last 10 years. Has your life gotten better? Most people don't and won't get better.

To make it better, you need to change something in your life, in your thinking and in your actions. If you want change, you need to get out of your comfort zone and do something new.

What affects recurring events?

1 If a person or not being very good with yourself. Subconsciously it looks like "I don't deserve better". In this situation, nothing good can be expected. Life will get harder and worse every year. Learn to accept yourself and other people. You are a part of God and treat yourself like a god. Get yourself a program "I love and accept myself for who I am, I deserve the best". Realizing and accepting this will take you to the next level.

2 Man's choice. We make our choices every day, and we do so in accordance with our understanding of this world. The choice is influenced by the nature and set of conscious and unconscious programs that are in every person.

To get something new, you need to go beyond your usual life and your subconscious programs and do. This will give you new results. It should be noted that they may not always be the results that you need, but this is already a new life and the destruction of old patterns. We live knowing this world, we develop and learn in this physical world.

Living in our comfort zone, we stop developing, and life begins to resemble a swamp with a bad smell. Constantly take steps into the new and unknown, and from life you will receive new gifts.

So, to break the vicious circle of recurring events, you need to:

1. Accept yourself, other people and the world as it is. Accept and love. This will have a very good effect not only on fate, but also on health.
2. Change your life. Go beyond the usual life and habitual actions. Take steps into uncharted areas, meet new people, do things differently. Your life is a set of rules invented by someone. Create your own rules and involve people in your life, rather than playing by someone else's rules.

These 2 steps will pull you out of your usual life and set the course for new events. Also, the vicious circle can be broken by receiving answers from her.

As long as your reaction to events is the same, they will be repeated.

I wish you new pleasant changes in your life!

Synopsis of the books “BOOK OF FATE” and “FATE OF RUSSIA. HISTORY OF THE FUTURE»

For many representatives of the human race, this question has never been an existent one, because in their lives they are unconsciously guided by the motto spoken by the holy apostle Matthew, “The day of his wickedness prevails” (Matt. 6:34).

For a few, a positive answer to this question was an attempt to find patterns in history and use them to predict the future. Attempts to predict the future have not stopped since ancient times. For example, the Old Testament prophets, the author of the Apocalypse, Nostradamus and many others. Maybe God vouchsafed them the ability to see the future, but for mere mortals who do not have this skill, their prophecies are “dark, like a path in the afterlife darkness” ( Bunin I. A.). These are predictions without specific places and dates, these are predictions “in general”. Any modern interpreter can attribute these prophecies to any historical event, past, present or future.

We are interested in the history of mankind. To really know the future of mankind, it is necessary to identify the patterns of its historical development. Some thinkers, for example, A. I. Herzen, categorically stated that history does not repeat itself. And if there is no repetition of historical events, then there is no comprehension of history, and the future depends on the actions in the present of the creator of history - man. Others say that God at the time of creation already created everything - the past, the present, and the future, and since it is not given to man to know the works of God, then history, the creation of God, a weak person cannot know, he cannot create the future either. because the future is already predetermined. Still others, such as O. Spengler, A. J. Toynbee, L. N. Gumilyov, declared that patterns exist and tried to find the laws of history.

We also declare that history repeats itself, and we prove it in the history of the State.

Our world and everything in it has its beginning and its end, its birth and its death. The Universe, the Sun, the Earth, Humanity have their own cycle, but the duration of the cycle for each phenomenon is different. It is precisely this difference, as well as the interconnection and interdependence of the Fates, that give rise to the very dissimilarity of recurring events. This paper discusses the history of some states that are carriers of the Fates. The rest of the countries are just a background against which the fateful countries put into practice the will of their Fates. The duration of the cycle for these Fates is the same - 370 years, but the time of birth is different. The bearer of Destiny is the state, the territory on which it is located, the people, their faith and culture. L. N. Gumilyov writes: “At the population level, the actions of an ethnos are programmed by the environment, culture and genetic memory. On a personal level, they are free." ( Gumilyov L. N. "Ancient Russia and the Great Steppe", p. 421). The actions of an ethnos aimed at creating a state are guided by Fate. At the dawn of mankind, the influence of the Fates on each other was insignificant, but the events of our era show their growing and all-pervading influence and interconnection. The end-beginning of any period is the death of God and his resurrection. This is the time of the death of states and their revival. The countries and peoples inhabiting them are pawns that the player, Fate, sacrifices or queens at her own discretion in order to achieve her only goals. Until the time measured by Fate expires, the state that is the bearer of Fate will not disappear. When Fate wants to kill the state, she gives him insignificant rulers, greedy for power, embraced by ambition, greed and self-interest. In our works, we consider the Fates of the World (the authors did not consider the history of India and Southeast Asia, since their history is under the authority of the considered Fates and the Fate of Africa).

Fate of the World

(the year of the beginning of the cycle is indicated)

Roman Destiny

…1383−1013−643−273 - 97−467−837−1207−1577−1947−2317…

Altai Fate

…1778−1408−1038−668−298 - 72−442−812−1182−1552−1922−2292…

German Destiny

…1839−1469−1099−729−359 - 11−381−751−1121−1491−1861−2231…

Iranian Destiny

…1810−1440−1070−700−330 - 40−410−780−1150−1520−1890−2260…

Arabian Destiny

…1590−1220−850−480−110 - 260−630−1000−1370−1740−2110…

Balkan Destiny

…1879−1509−1139−769−399−29 - 341−711−1081−1451−1821−2191…

Asia Minor Fate

…1925−1555−1185−815−445−75 - 295−665−1035−1405−1775−2145…

Young Chinese Destiny

…1686−1316−946−576−206 - 164−534−904−1274−1644−2014…

Old Chinese Destiny

…1841−1471−1101−731−361 - 9−379−749−1119−1489−1859−2229…

Phoenician Destiny

…1996−1626−1256−886−516−146 - 224−594−964−1334−1704−2074…

The fate of Russia

…1708−1338−968−598−228 - 142−512−882−1252−1622−1992−2362…

From the list of Fates mentioned above, we will take " Altai Destiny" from "Books of Fates", where the Fates and their impact on the peoples and states subject to them are considered, We will consider it from 442, although it is much older.

And then we'll take Altai Destiny" from book "The fate of Russia. History of the future», where the influence of this Destiny on " the fate of Russia.

And finally, consider The fate of Russia

BOOK OF FATE

Altai Destiny.

At the beginning of the 3rd century A.D. e. China has been negatively affected by the end of the cycle of Old Chinese Destiny. The Western Jin Empire was shaken by internecine wars. Not having the strength to repel the attackers from Manchuria, Mongolia and Tibet nomadic tribes, the empire lost its northern territories up to the Yangtze River. On the occupied lands, the nomads created their own states, fighting among themselves for hegemony in Northern China. The she-wolf is indifferent to who of her cubs drinks milk. The strong repel the weak, dooming them to death. Death to the weak is the law. So is Fate, she doesn’t care who seizes power, she always has several applicants for the fulfillment of her will. The most powerful and worthy turned out to be one of the Mongol-speaking Xianbi tribes - the Toba tribe. Tabgachi overcame the consequences of the defeat from the kingdom of Early Qin in 376 and managed to create in 386 their own state - the kingdom of Northern Wei (386-535, from 395 - empire). In 439, the Northern Wei Empire subjugated the last independent kingdom of Northern Liang (397−439). The entire North of China came under the control of the Northern Wei Empire. A small group of inhabitants of the Western Liang kingdom, led by Prince Ashina, were forced to emigrate to the Rourans. “Turkyuts arose like this: in 439, a small detachment of Prince Ashin fled from Northwestern China from the victorious and ruthless Tabgaches. The composition of this detachment was motley, but the predominant ethnic group was the Xianbei, i.e. the ancient Mongols. Settling on the slopes of Altai and Khingan and mingling with the natives, the Turks made iron smelting and weapon making their narrow specialty. ( Gumilyov L. N. "Ancient Russia and the Great Steppe", p. 30).

While the Old Chinese Fate favored the Tabgachs, the Turks remained under the rule of the Rourans. In 534, the End-Beginning of the cycle of the Young Chinese Destiny came. The influence of the Old Chinese Destiny has disappeared. As a result of the turmoil, the Northern Wei empire broke up in 534 into two warring parts. The Turks took advantage of this war, they destroyed the Jurans who sheltered them a hundred years ago and created the Turkic Khaganate.

In 601, the Turkic Khaganate broke up into two independent Khaganates - Eastern and Western. In 630, the Eastern Turks were subjugated by the Chinese Tang Empire, and in 658 the same fate befell the Western Turks.

An outstanding statesman and politician of Persia Mazdak (?-529), who lived in the 5th century, was the leader of the "communist movement, which was based on the religious dualistic teachings of Zaradushta (III century), which was a reform of the teachings of the Manichaeans" ( Small Soviet Encyclopedia. - M., 1928−1932, vol. IV, p. 803), in 491 proclaimed the slogan "Rob the loot!" Part of the Jews living in Persia, who became rich thanks to the support of the rulers, were forced to flee the country to the Roman Empire. Part of the Jews supported Mazdak and took an active part in this "communist" movement. In 529, a counter-revolutionary coup took place, and this time the Mazdakit Jews, who found shelter with the Khazars living between the Sulak and Terek rivers, were forced to flee the country.

The Jews who settled among the Khazars were joined by tribesmen from the Roman Empire. “The Jews who found salvation in Byzantium should have helped the Byzantines. But they helped in a strange way. Negotiating secretly with the Arabs, the Jews opened the gates of the cities at night and let the Arab soldiers in. They slaughtered the men and sold the women and children into slavery. The Jews, buying up slaves cheaply, resold them at a considerable profit for themselves. The Greeks did not like this. But, having decided not to make new enemies for themselves, they limited themselves to offering the Jews to leave. So the second group of Jews appeared on the lands of the Khazars - the Byzantine "( Gumilyov L. N. From Russia to Russia: Essays on ethnic history. - M., 2000, p. 34). Toynbee is only partially right when he says that emigrants, including Jews, having endured the test of a human environment alien to them, they are quite satisfied that they are reaping a harvest from a field not cultivated by them. Toynbee A. J. Comprehension of History: Collection. / Per. from English. - M., 2001, p. 181). In addition to the harvest, they also need the blood of a plowman.

In 567, the Khazars living in the Caspian region became part of the Turkic Khaganate. In 650, one of the representatives of the ruling Ashina dynasty fled to the Khazars from the kaganate torn by civil strife, saving his life. Standing at the head of the Khazars, he, with their support, separated the Khazars from the Turkic Khaganate and created a new Khaganate - the Khazar. The Chinese, when conquering the Turks of the Western Turkic Khaganate, due to the remoteness of the Khazars, could not conquer them.

The Jews intermarried with the ruling Turkic dynasty and turned it into a Jewish one. In 808, “in the Khazar Khaganate, a certain influential Jew Obadiah took power into his own hands, turning the khan from the Ashina dynasty (by his father) into a puppet and made rabbinical Judaism the state religion of Khazaria ( Gumilyov L. N. Discovery of Khazaria, p. 283).

“The legitimate khan from the Ashina clan became a Jew, that is, he accepted the faith of his mother and was accepted into the community. All government posts were distributed among the Jews, and Obadiah himself took the title "peh" (bek), translated into Arabic as "malik", that is, king. This means that he headed the government under the nominal khan (kagan), who from that time was in custody and released for show to the people once a year ( ibid., p. 284).

“The coup, the victim of which was the tribal aristocracy of all ethnic groups that were part of the Khazar Khaganate and got along with the Turkic dynasty, caused a civil war, where the Magyars came out on the side of the rebels, and on the side of the Jews, Pechenegs hired for money. This war was merciless, because, according to the Babylonian Talmud, "a non-Jew who does evil to a Jew inflicts it on the Lord himself and, thus committing an insult to Majesty, deserves death" ( from the treatise "Sanhedrin", without specifying the sheet and column).

For the early Middle Ages, total war was an unusual innovation. It was supposed, having broken the resistance of the enemy, to impose taxes and duties on the defeated, often military service in auxiliary units. But the total extermination of all people who were on the other side of the front was an echo of ancient times. For example, during the conquest of Canaan by Joshua, it was forbidden to take captive women and children and thereby leave them life. It was even prescribed to kill domestic animals belonging to the enemy. Obadiah revived a forgotten antiquity.

After this war, the beginning and end of which cannot be accurately dated, Khazaria changed its appearance. From a systemic integrity, it has turned into an unnatural combination of an amorphous mass of subjects with a ruling class alien in blood and religion ( ibid., pp.285−286).

This dynasty began to wage wars of conquest against its neighbors. In particular, the Slavic tribes of the Polyans, Vyatichi, Severyans and Radimichi became tributaries of Khazaria in the 8th century. In 808, the Jewish community made a Jewish revolution in the Khazar Khaganate and usurped power, plunging the country that sheltered them into the abyss of civil war. The Jews waged an all-out war against the Khazar people. The persecution of the Orthodox began. The Orthodox bishopric was abolished. Christians fled the country. In general, the same thing happened that happened after three cycles of the Altai Destiny in Russia (808+370×3=1918). Having suppressed the resistance of the Khazar people, the Jews increased the colonial oppression of their neighbors. “... Slavic lands in the IX-X centuries. became a source of slaves for the Jews, like Africa of the 17th-19th centuries. ( Gumilyov L. N. Ancient Russia and the Great Steppe. - M., 2002, p. 200).

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In 1182, part of the Mongols, in obedience to the will of their Fate, proclaimed Temujin Khan with the title of Genghis ( L.N. Gumilyov “In search of a fictional kingdom”, p. 137). Thus begins the creation of a great and formidable power. Thus begins the centuries-old period of sorrows and misfortunes of the Mongols, which almost led them to complete disappearance from the face of the earth. Even the darkness of the Mongol-Tatars destroys countries and peoples, already the navy poison of the vanquished decomposes the winners.

The state of Genghis Khan, even before the death of its creator, according to his will, was divided into uluses between his four sons. The uluses are also part of a single, but already divided empire, unity disappears, the heirs of Genghis Khan see each other as sworn enemies, and the blood of the “conquerors of the universe” begins to flow. The descendants of the third son of Genghis Khan and his successor Ogedei were completely exterminated by the Hulaguids. The Chagatai ulus - allocated by Genghis Khan himself, as well as the state of the Hulaguids and the Ulus of the Great Khan or the state of Yuan, founded by the brothers Hulagu and Khubilai, do not survive the turn of 1370 (the year the cycle of the Arabian Fate began), and only the fragments of the Golden Horde succeed with great difficulty overcome and complete the cycle. Internal unrest, the invasion of Tamerlane dealt a crushing blow to the Golden Horde, from which she could not recover. In the 15th century, numerous khanates and hordes arose on its ruins, which were later included in the Russian Empire, which by force took the right to the legacy of Genghis Khan.

At the beginning of the 16th century, Mongolia consisted of two large parts: western and eastern, separated by the Khangai mountains. Each of the parts consisted of smaller holdings. One of the rulers, Dayan Khan (Khan in 1479-1543), united almost all of Mongolia under his rule. Before the death of Dayan Khan, he divided the country into eleven destinies according to the number of sons. Mongolia again split into Eastern and Western, Eastern, in addition, divided by the Gobi desert, split into Northern and Southern. The Mongols had their say. Altai Fate left the Mongols.

In 1921, units of the Red Army, which entered the territory of Mongolia at the request of the Mongolian Provisional Government, formed as a result of the revolution, together with the Mongolian army expelled the White Guards. On July 11, 1921, the independence of Mongolia was declared in the liberated Urga. At the head of the state stood the Bogdo Gegen. After his death (1924) Mongolia was proclaimed a People's Republic.

Altai Fate

The closer the end of the cycle approached, the more the Kazan Khanate was subjected to the influence of its neighbors. Kazan was the key to Jochi's legacy. It became the arena of struggle between Crimea and Moscow.

Attempts by the fragments of the Golden Horde to unite and resist the increasing influence of Moscow were unsuccessful. Russia was able to turn the tide and wrest the banner of the Altai Destiny from the hands of its enemies and begin to conquer its conquerors, although the negative end of the cycle had an impact not only on the Tatar khanates. Moscow had to experience it for itself.

In 1552 Moscow conquered Kazan.

The year 552 marked the beginning of the process of unification of all the lands of the Altai Destiny under the leadership of Russia, which successfully coped with the task. By 1922, all the lands of this Destiny became subject to Moscow.

On October 25, 1922, with the liberation of Vladivostok, the civil war and intervention ended. The power of the Bolsheviks completely crushed a great country under itself. On December 27, 1922, an agreement was signed between the RSFSR, Ukraine, Belarus and the Transcaucasian Federation on the formation of the USSR. On December 30, the Kurultai of the authorized representatives of these countries approved a declaration and an agreement on the formation of the Union of Kurultai Socialist Uluses.

FATE OF RUSSIA. HISTORY OF THE FUTURE

The fate of RUSSIA

In the 9th century, two centers of the unification of the East Slavic tribes developed - Kyiv, the main city of the Polyans, and Ladoga, the main city of the Slovenes (Ilmen).

The North Russian tribe of Slovenes (Ilmensky) was ruled by their prince Gostomysl. After his death, the tribe became dependent on the Varangians and became their tributary. In 862, the Slovenes refused to pay tribute. In the struggle for power, they started riots and strife. Tired of all this, the Slovenes invited the leader of the Baltic Slavs Rurik Slavyanin and his brothers Sineus and Truvor to reign. The brothers were the grandchildren of the Slovenian prince Gostomysl, their mother was Umila Gostomyslovna, and their father was Godlav Bodrichsky. The elder brother Rurik (born c. 830 - died in 879) sat in Ladoga, the middle brother Sineus - on Beloozero, the younger, Truvor - in Izborsk.

In 864, when the younger brothers died, Rurik moved to Novgorod. In the cities of Polotsk, Rostov, Beloozero and others, he appointed his deputies.

Before his death, Rurik handed over the reign not to his son, young in years, but to his relative Oleg. In 882, Oleg (Kn. Novgorodsky in 879−882, Prince of Kyiv in 882−912) went on a campaign with a retinue. He occupied Smolensk and Lyubech, and planted his governors there. In Kyiv, the main city of the glades, the princes Askold and Dir ruled. Having treacherously seized the rulers of Kyiv, Oleg killed them and himself sat down to reign there, making Kyiv the capital of his possessions (“the mother of Russian cities”). Tributes were established to the Slavs and Mary. In 883, Oleg conquered the Drevlyans. Then the northerners (884) and Radimichi (885), who had previously paid tribute to the Khazars, were conquered.

In 882, the period of Russian history known as "Kievan Rus" began.

In 1206 history repeated itself. The inhabitants of Galich called for the reign of Vladimir, Roman and Svyatoslav Igorevich. The brothers were the grandchildren of the Galician prince Yaroslav Vladimirovich Osmomysl, their mother was Efrosinya Yaroslavna, and their father was Igor Svyatoslavich (Kn. Novgorod-Seversky in 1180-1198, Prince of Chernigov in 1198-1202), the hero of "The Tale of Igor's Campaign" .

Looking at the events of a thousand years ago through the prism of modern reality, one would like to say: “In 882, Oleg Varyazhsky with the Novgorod lads decided to run into the Kyiv boys. He took Smolensk and Lyubech, and placed his watchers there. At the head of the Kyiv were Askold and Dir. Oleg scored them an arrow, on which the leaders of Kyiv were killed.

In the first years of the Mongol-Tatar yoke, when most of the country's cities were burned, the population was killed and driven into slavery, the survivors were subjected to exorbitant tribute, when there was a question about the existence of Russia itself and its people, two rulers were revealed in it and for it - Daniil Galitsky and Alexander Nevsky. The country had the opportunity to be reborn in a new incarnation, but which way the revival would go depended on the will of these people. New Russia was supposed to be reborn in the Galicia-Volyn principality, but it was reborn in the Vladimir-Suzdal land.

The main role in choosing the path was played by the relationship of Russia with Catholic Europe and the Horde. The wrong choice made by Daniil of Galicia and his descendants led the Galician kingdom to fall under the blows of Western invaders and subjugate Southern Russia and the people for long and difficult centuries of slavery and captivity.

The policy of Alexander Nevsky and his heirs, who saw the main danger in the desire of the Catholic West to seize the “country of cities”, and force the population to renounce Orthodoxy and accept Catholic dogmas, helped Russia to overcome everything, overcome everything, resist and be reborn.

Alexander Nevsky continued the policy of his great great-great-grandfather Vladimir Monomakh. “In fact, in the XII-XIII centuries. Polovtsian land (Desht-i-Kypchak) and Kievan Rus were one polycentric state" ( Gumilyov L. N. Ancient Russia and the Great Steppe. - M., 2002.16, p. 303−304). The Polovtsy were replaced by the Mongol-Tatars. The burden of choosing Alexander Nevsky was much heavier than the burden of choosing Monomakh. That one has a strong state, while Alexander Nevsky has a fragmented, bloodless and depopulated country.

The turmoil ended after the election of sixteen-year-old Mikhail Romanov as tsar.

« GOD REDUCES THE TIME OF DISTRICTS FOR THE PEOPLE HE CHOSES» (Mark 13:20).

In 1622, the last prominent participants in the Time of Troubles, Fedor Ivanovich Mstislavsky, who died three times in 1598, 1606 and 1610, died. refused to be nominated for the Russian throne, and Ksenia Borisovna Godunova. After their death, a new cycle begins.

The policy of the traitor Gorby led to the weakening of the central government and the collapse of the country. An unsuccessful attempt to stop the collapse was made by the Eight-Boyars of the State Emergency Committee. But what to be, that cannot be avoided. It is impossible to cancel the death of God, he must ascend the cross, but to reduce or increase his suffering depends on the will of man. If a person is a champion of Evil, then he intensifies suffering and for this he must be punished.

The ruling circles of the union republics, striving for even greater power, headed by Yeltsin, destroyed the USSR. On December 8, 1991, in the dense Belarusian forest, in Belovezhskaya Pushcha, a few kilometers from the Soviet-Polish border, the leaders of three republics (RSFSR, Ukrainian SSR and BSSR) gathered - B. N. Yeltsin, L. M. Kravchuk and S. S. Shushkevich and signed the Agreement on the creation of the CIS prepared in deep secrecy from their peoples. On December 21, the leaders of eight more republics joined this Agreement.

Deputies of the Parliament of Ukraine and the Supreme Soviets of Belarus and Russia ratified the documents on December 10, 11 and 12, respectively. Soon, the supreme authorities of almost all the republics that signed the Union Treaty in 1922 denounced it.

On the evening of December 25, speaking on television, M. Gorbachev stated the collapse of the USSR and resigned as president of the USSR. The Russian flag was raised over the Grand Kremlin Palace instead of the state flag of the Soviet Union. The next day, the Council of the Republics of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR held its last meeting and adopted a Declaration in which it announced the cessation of the existence of the USSR. The Soviet Union, having existed for exactly 69 years, went into oblivion. The bomb planted under the building of the statehood of the USSR by V. I. Lenin exploded and smashed it to smithereens.

Russia is gone, Russia is out

And don't ring the bells.

Not a word or a word about her,

No one cares for sadness.

Russia silences the chatter

And upside down lies.

And we're leaving with her forever

Not explaining your fault.

And in the Novgorod region, the Uzbeks

Already uprooting virgin soil.

M. Dudin

As history shows, only a mono-ethnic state can overcome the hard times of the End-Beginning of the cycle. The state, uniting numerous tribes, nationalities and peoples, does not overcome this boundary and disappears forever in the abyss of non-existence. Russia could overcome troubled times only because it was the country of one Russian people. From the beginning of the 19th century, the process of turning Russia into a multinational state began, but until the end of the 20th century, the Russian people retained their dominant position. The current policy of immigrantization of Russia (namely Russia, not the Russian Federation), its occupation by foreigners and foreigners, with the simultaneous depopulation of the Russian people, is leading Russia to the slaughter. 2361 - this will be the last year of the existence of Russia, if you do not ...

CONCLUSION

» You must do good from evil , because what his more not from what to do ».

R. P. Warren

Russia is a great country. She will have a great future if you and I do not lose her. During the years of unrest, internal strife and intervention, its territory was reduced, but the unrest passed, and Russia was restored not only in the same size, but also increased, pushing its borders, and its power increased. With internal unity, no one could offend her with impunity, but in times of internal strife, when the unity of the country was violated, neighbors, like mad dogs, attacked Russia, trying to snatch as much as possible from her wealth. But even in difficult years, when there was a question about the existence of the Russian state, the enemies failed to destroy it. An amazing thing is that countries that have been at war with each other for centuries cannot achieve an advantage in this struggle, and if Russia is at war with any country, then that country can no longer be found on the map. It either disappears altogether, or falls under the rule of Russia or its allies for centuries. Where are the obry, Khazars, Pechenegs, Polovtsy? Where are the numerous hordes and orders?

We perceive today's world statically. It seems to us that the West has gone far ahead and we will never catch up with it. This is not so, it also has its own cycle, and today events are emerging that will show the European peoples where Kuz'kin's mother winters. Europe not the navel of the earth, it is only one of the many peninsulas of Asia . The unity of the West is an ephemeral thing, the day will come when the unity will disappear, and discord and enmity will appear in its place. And rivers of blood will flow again. “New cities will become dust, leaving no trace in memory, only the winds, howling at the ends of the earth, will still sing in their dust” ( Sterling Brown).

Determining the position of Russia in the system of states, Peter I attached great importance to relations with the East. “We need Europe for several decades,” said Peter I, “and then we must turn our backs on it,” that is, face the East.

Stop spinning. It's time to turn around and face yourself. Russia has no friends in this world and needs to rely only on its own strength.

Based on an analysis of the political history of Russia, the book shows that revolutions in our state are repeated with a clear frequency. Russian history is a complex cyclical process. In the first approximation, it can be represented as a superposition, a "superposition" of three cycles lasting 71-86 years, 300 years and 383-384 years. In addition, it is shown that between the most important events of Russian history, time passes, a multiple of an integer number of periods ... (More) revolutions of the planets of the solar system. Dates of all events in the history of Russia are given according to traditional chronology. The reader can independently check any date in the reference book or books presented in the bibliography.

The book is intended for anyone interested in history. Not necessarily domestic, but foreign as well. Because periodic processes occur not only in Russia. This is a universal, planetary phenomenon. The patterns found can be applied to search for periodic processes in the history of other states.

I dedicate it to my parents Ivan Vasilyevich and Vera Ivanovna.

When you open any book, the first thing you want to know is what it is about. To make it easier for the reader to choose, we will immediately define the topic of this book and warn him of what difficulties he will have to face.

The theme of this book is periodic processes in the political history of the Russian state. We will try to consider in detail the most important political events in the history of the Moscow principality, the Russian Empire and the USSR, from 1304 to the present, and very briefly touch on the history of Kievan and Vladimir Rus in the period from 1000 to 1300.

The first chapter will show that state cataclysms, such as revolutions, civil wars, uprisings, occur in the history of Russia at clearly measured intervals, with a frequency of approximately 71-86 years, 300 years and 383-384 years. Knowing these periods, one can try to predict future events. Many books have already been written on this subject. Here we will go from specific historical events to general patterns. We will classify political events, "break" the history of Russia into several periods, and then show why certain events should be chosen as the boundary events of these, and not some other periods. You will see that the duration of the periods can be measured with an accuracy of one day, and these periods repeat. This technique can also be applied to search for periodic processes in the history of other states.

In the second chapter it will be shown that the duration between the most important historical events is equal to whole numbers of periods of revolution of the planets of the solar system around the Sun. You will also learn about some interesting relationships between the periods of revolution of the planets, and how these relationships "manifest" in the history of Russia. All this raises many questions. Unfortunately, most of them have not yet been answered. Let's hope that at least some answers will be found in the near future.

And now a few general remarks.

Firstly, this is not a new chronology in the style of A.T. Fomenko and G.V. Nosovsky. All conclusions and calculations given in this book are based on the existing, traditional chronology. You can find the date of any event that we will talk about in any good encyclopedic reference book. Unfortunately, most reference books either do not give exact dates or are full of typos. And this is a big problem. There are no real encyclopedic publications on the history of Russia, at least in Russian, yet.

Secondly, this book is not for easy reading. Although there are no complex logical constructions in it, dates and numbers are in abundance. This is the specificity of our topic. Dates are very important to us. Why? You will learn about this in the second chapter.

Since we are talking about dates, we will immediately decide that we will use the now generally accepted Gregorian calendar. It should be remembered that some countries have used other calendars before, and even now. In addition, not all countries immediately switched to the Gregorian calendar at the same time. For example, Russia switched to this calendar relatively recently, only in 1918. That year February 1st was immediately followed by February 14th. In order not to be confused, we will indicate all dates in the history of Russia before February 1, 1918 according to the old style, i.e. according to the Julian calendar. Unfortunately, most historians do not indicate at all which calendar they use. Therefore, it took a long time to find out and look for exact dates, and where it was not possible to find an exact reference to the calendar, the author assumes that the dates are indicated according to the Gregorian calendar. His only justification is that the error in the dates of the Julian and Gregorian calendar is quite small, and is 13 days for the 20th century and even less for the 19th-16th centuries. Such is the accuracy of our chronology.

Thirdly, in this book we will talk about the most important events in the history of Russia over the past seven hundred years. There are many of these events, and special studies are devoted to almost each of them. In order to see a certain system in all this diversity, it is necessary to look at the past from a bird's eye view. This means that we will describe historical events, but very briefly, and many details that are not important for our topic will be omitted, we simply will not see them. It remains to be hoped that the reader is familiar with Russian history or will easily find specialized literature on a particular event that will interest him. The list of references is attached.

Fourth, in describing historical events, we will try not to use ethical assessments. Let's focus on what happened and when. The sequence of events will also be very important for us.

Fifthly, we will carry out small calculations, while 4 rules of arithmetic and a pocket calculator will be enough for us. All this should not cause great difficulties for the reader.

All historians, both ancient and modern, describe single, unique events and actions of specific people. Nothing they write about will ever happen again. There will be no second Ivan Kalita, no second Peter I, no second Poltava, no second Battle of Borodino. All this, of course, is true, but the uniqueness of the event does not mean at all that this event cannot be something like others. One of the greats said that history repeats itself twice - once in the form of a tragedy, and the second time in the form of a farce. Somewhere on the subconscious level, we realize that there are similar events, similar periods, similar rulers. Many, for example, were compared with Napoleon, I.V. Stalin was often compared with Ivan the Terrible. But if there are similar events, then it is interesting to know at what time intervals they occur. Maybe there are some patterns here?

Even in Soviet times, we were taught that there are general laws of development of society - it allegedly goes through certain stages, phases of development. But then there were words, words, words, and nothing concrete. Why are these laws not formalized? Is it even possible to represent them in the form of mathematical formulas?

The first and important step in this direction was made by Lev Nikolaevich Gumilyov. He discovered the laws of development of the ethnos. It turned out that the ethnos behaves like a living being, i.e. he is "born" and "dies." Its "age" lasts approximately 1200-1500 years, and catastrophic events occur every 200-300 years, and the ethnos passes into another phase of its life. Ethnic groups are always fighting with each other, and very often young ethnic groups absorb the old ones. Therefore, the lifetime of ethnic groups can be both 300 and 500 years (1).

Are there similar laws for states? They must exist, because the ethnos creates the state, this is its "form of life, form of existence." Most often, several ethnic groups unite in one state, but at the same time there is always one dominant one, which has a decisive influence on its neighbors. It follows from this that states behave like an ethnos, they also go through crises and exist (if they are not "eaten" by other states) for about 1200-1500 years.

But is it not possible to predict catastrophic events in the "life" of states with greater accuracy, well, at least up to one year, and in the future, up to one month or a day?

This is the main question, the main problem. This book is dedicated to her solution. Of course, this problem cannot be solved by one person alone. We will try here only to identify some directions, ways in which we can hope to find a solution.

The first step in the search for the laws of the development of states should be the classification of political events. We must highlight some similar events, similar time periods. Other sciences have long passed this stage. For example, geometry back in the days of Euclid (different geometric shapes were identified - triangles, squares, etc.). Biology passed this stage in the 19th century. History is a whole conglomeration of sciences, and it lags behind in its development. Perhaps now it is her turn, the time has come to move from descriptions of events (this is the subject of a special science, and maybe even art) to their classification (this will be a different science).

Let us try to carry out such a classification on the example of the history of Russia. Why Russia? This choice is obvious. First, it is the author's (and reader's) native story, and it is of particular interest. Secondly, there is much more information on Russian history than on the history of any other state.

So, let's try to "decompose" all the important political events in the history of Russia "on separate shelves" or "boxes", as in a library catalog.

What events will we put in these "boxes"? We will be interested only in political events, and, moreover, in "turning point" events, i.e. those that led to changes in the system and government bodies. These are, first of all, revolutions, civil wars, coup d'état, riots, uprisings. Sometimes even the death of a tsar or a grand duke was such a "turning point" event, since with the new tsar (grand duke) his new "team" came to power, and then the redistribution of power and, accordingly, property began.

We will not be interested in cultural and scientific events, we will not even talk about some of the wars waged by Russia, because wars did not always lead to changes in the structure of government.

The first question that confronts us is what are we going to write on these "boxes"? Essentially it is a question of terms. "Define the meanings of words, and you will rid the world of half of the contradictions," said A.S. Pushkin. Let us follow the advice of the great poet and now try to determine the meaning of the word - revolution. In the future, in the course of presentation, we will introduce new terms, sometimes we will use old words, but the meaning is to put in a new one.

So, the first and very important term for us that we will write on the first "box" is the word "revolution". It would seem that everyone knows what it is. What is there to explain? In fact, there is no generally accepted definition of revolution. In this book, the word revolution will denote a "drastic", "explosive", "catastrophic" change in the structure and government of the state, followed by changes in the social structure of society. Revolutions do not always lead to civil war, but armed clashes, even on a small scale, are always observed.

The definition you proposed needs to be clarified, of course. Its main drawback is that it does not take into account one significant factor - time. Is a revolution a one-day event or some kind of process? Of course, this is a process that lasts in time and therefore has a beginning and an end. More precisely, it should be said that there are events with which revolutions begin, and there are events with which revolutions end. There is some contingency in their choice. Such events should be bright, significant, and should be "boundary", i.e. they should immediately be followed by changes in the structure of government. Sometimes finding such events is not so easy, because you have to choose between several events. There are other difficulties here as well.

Let's move on from our theoretical reasoning to real historical events, and in particular to the events of Russian history, which is still close to us in the 20th century. Let's try to look at the political cataclysms of this century without "ideological blinkers" and moral assessments, we will concentrate only on the facts of history, on what happened and when.

Vasiliev Vasily Ivanovich

Graduated from the Moscow Higher Technical School. N. E. Bauman in 1981 with a degree in Aircraft. Works in the rocket and space industry. Area of ​​interest: history of Russia, Ancient Rome, Byzantium and Western European states; ethnogenesis. He is the author of the books “Does history repeat itself? On periodic processes in the political history of Russia” (M.: URSS), “Cosmo-rhythms in the history of the Russian Empire (1671–1918)” (M.: URSS), “Cosmo-rhythms in the history of Great Britain”.