The head of the Hydrometeorological Center told why cold May is good. Marat Frenkel: “The climate is changing, scientists no longer doubt it Cold spring what is happening on the planet

Why is it so cold in June? What will summer be like? And why is it so difficult to predict weather changes? We talked about this with Marat Frenkel, head of the Kirov Center for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring

Marat Frenkel calls the current weather abnormal. Separately, April and May in the Kirov region were cold approximately once every 8-10 years. But for two months in a row to keep frosts, it rained, this is a rarity. Although such weather in the Kirov region has already happened twice in the last hundred years - in 1941 and 1945.

The fact is, explained Marat Osherovich, that in the previous century the so-called west-east transfer prevailed, when air masses moved from west to east. Then our grandmothers could boldly say: “It is warm in Moscow today, in two days it will be warm and it will come to us.”

And now cyclones are coming to us from the North Atlantic, from the Arctic Ocean. Cyclones bring with them strong winds, precipitation and frosts. This alternation has been going on for two months, and it is a rarity for our region.

“Climate change is influenced by a huge number of factors. This is the transfer of air masses, and the melting of glaciers, which leads to a change in the temperature of ocean currents, this is the eruption of volcanoes, and the testing of nuclear weapons. Human activity also influences. So, a huge amount of greenhouse gases makes the atmosphere opaque to sunlight. Not all of these factors are modeled, and therefore the forecast cannot be 100% accurate,” Marat Frenkel stressed.

Thus, the monthly forecast made by the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia with the help of modern technology is 70-80 percent accurate. Nizhny Novgorod forecasts the weather for five days, and Kirov for three days.

Forecasts are made strictly on the basis of maps. Let's say the front goes to Moscow: the map shows where the precipitation zone will be, whether Kirov will fall into this zone. And then a calculation is made for each parameter - temperature, precipitation, wind.

So, what will the weather be like in Kirov in summer? Until the end of the week, the region will be at the mercy of the cold front. But in the second half of June, the air will begin to warm up. Yes, June will not be as good as we would like, but July, according to the calculations of the Hydrometeorological Center, promises to be warm. August will be usual for us, and in September, again, according to the calculations of the Hydrometeorological Center, Indian summer will be established for two weeks. Strong winds, hurricanes and thunderstorms are expected in summer. Or maybe hail. This is a typical climate change phenomenon.

The fact that the climate is changing, now no one from scientists doubts. And we, the inhabitants of the planet, also feel the changes. It is getting warmer in Siberia, the south is flooded with rain, and Europe is tormented by heat. The latest data suggests that the winter in the Kirov region has become milder than before, the spring is early, but protracted. All of these are signs of climate change.

And increasingly, scientists are coming to the conclusion that it is possible to control the weather. Instead of spending money on an arms race, one could invest in this complex but important science - meteorology.

British professor Paul Williams closely studied the video of the Moscow hurricane. Is this really going to be the norm in our latitudes? What Muscovites experienced this week could easily be repeated, because along with climate change in the world, the world itself is changing.

I do not want to believe that according to these indicators, our country will catch up and overtake America, where hurricanes are a common thing. Every inhabitant of the central part of Russia is concerned about the question: where did the summer disappear and when will it finally appear?

Meteorologists assure that summer will come and even give Moscow heat. However, it is worth hoping that this heat will also not be abnormal. Residents of the capital come to their senses after. Few of those who took an interest in the weather forecast in the morning could see something frightening there - a forecast as a forecast. On May 29, the hydrometeorological center promised the townspeople cloudiness, a small thunderstorm and a westerly wind at a speed of 12 meters per second.

It seemed that in order to save yourself from the vagaries of nature, it was enough just to take an umbrella with you. But at 15:00, a suddenly rising wind began to snatch umbrellas from the hands of those who were not lucky enough to be on the street, and after a few minutes it was not even wind, but a real hurricane also effortlessly uprooted and threw trees through the streets, demolished roofs and brought down power lines . It's not that the forecasters were wrong in their forecasts - in the Moscow region the wind really blew at the promised speed. But what happened in the capital was what is called the wind tunnel effect: on long streets, avenues and highways, the air flow, squeezed by skyscrapers, accelerated to hurricane speeds of 30 meters per second and swept through the capital from west to east with a crushing squall, sweeping away everything in its path. After a terrifying storm, Moscow resembled the set of a disaster movie, and the city authorities counted the damage: 243 houses were damaged, more than 2,000 cars were smashed, 14,000 trees were knocked down.

All this, of course, is fixable: houses can be repaired, and insurance can be obtained for dented cars, but it is no longer possible to return those that have become. 11-year-old Anya Makeeva played in the yard on the playground, student Dasha Antonova hurried home from lectures, and pensioner Nikolai Kotov was waiting for the bus at the bus stop. Perhaps all of them would have survived if they had received an SMS that day warning that it was dangerous to go out.

It is unlikely that their relatives and friends will be consoled by the fact that such a devastating hurricane has never been in Moscow over the past 100 years. For a long time there has not been such a cold spring, which has now turned into the same. Scientists say that what we saw this week in Moscow can easily be repeated because along with climate change in the world, the world itself is changing.

So is this really the norm in our latitudes now? Details in the report NTV correspondent Andrey Sukhanov.

It’s downright scary to write about the weather now - suddenly you’ll scare away the summer. But very interesting things are told to journalists by climatologist, expert on extreme precipitation, senior researcher at the Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences and professor of the Alpine University of Grenoble (France) Olga Zolina.

The fact that man got into the climate system is a proven fact, this is indicated by the results summarized in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. And we cannot do anything about it, because it is impossible to take and stop the industry. And this leads to atypical behavior of the climate system, which often surprises us, because it is very different from what we are used to. There is no doubt that there will be more and more such "strange" weather manifestations.

Now the climate is changing, and we have - and this is an obvious fact - a widespread increase in temperature. And when the climate system is out of balance, all the components of this system begin to behave differently. By the way, in Russia, the duration of drought and periods with extreme precipitation is simultaneously increasing, which indicates a general increase in the extremeness of the climate.

Academician Obukhov called this the nervousness of the climate: unbalance one component, and the rest followed. As temperatures rise, the evaporation of moisture from the ocean surface increases, and the atmosphere can hold more water vapor. Climate warming is associated with a change in the movement of cyclones, now they bring more moisture and penetrate deeper to the north. This is what we are seeing in Moscow - the exit of the cyclone, which brought a lot of moisture. The conditions were such that he was able to bring this moisture to Moscow and quickly and powerfully pour it out. The combination of these conditions is becoming more and more frequent, and the average rainfall is increasing in many areas.

Russia is expected to increase extreme precipitation by 3-4% per decade. Climate models predict a strong increase in precipitation in the Arctic. In the Central region, an increase is already being observed, but it will be most powerful in Siberia, Transbaikalia and the Far East, as well as in the mountains. In addition to the values ​​of extreme precipitation, the overall intensity and their duration also increase.

Lately we've been having a shift in seasons- spring comes later, summer becomes shorter. And there is such a bad forecast, that we can come to a climate of eternal spring or autumn, as you like, with rain and cloudy weather, without separation of the seasons.

Eternal autumn is one of the theoretical possibilities which can be realized in connection with global warming. However, in order to obtain long-term climate forecasts, it is necessary to choose a scenario for how the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will change. There are several approximate scenarios - pessimistic, that is, a very strong increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases, the way things are going now, and optimistic, that is, a sharp reduction in emissions. The main "suppliers" of greenhouse gases are developing countries, which have a lot of other problems and climate change is far from the first place for them.

But the June returns of cold weather, which we recently observed, do not talk about climate change, they occur, if not every year, then with some frequency, and this is not new. So lined up atmospheric circulation - for a long time acted the so-called cyclonic blocking. A powerful anticyclone with high pressure stood over the Atlantic Ocean, and from the north it was bypassed one after another by cyclones that carried cold, humid air from the Arctic. They walked one thread, and I really wonder why this blocking took so long to break.

The climate, like any other complex natural system, always strives for balance. It has many little-studied mechanisms, the so-called feedbacks (feedback), capable of regulating this system. But over the past hundred years, we have thoroughly climbed into the initially self-regulating climate system, and it no longer has time to work out, to return to a certain balance. As a result, atypical or extreme weather events occur, and there are more and more of them every year.

Tired of hearing about global warming? And you don't need to! NASA experts are talking about global cooling. They count sunspots. The fewer of them, the lower the activity of the star. In May, the celestial disk was absolutely clear for several days. Is it any wonder that you have to freeze?

In history, there have been extreme periods more than once when there were no spots for a very long time and it became really cold.

In the XIV century, the Thames and Seine froze, and in the XVII century, the south of Italy was covered with snow. Historians have called these periods the Little Ice Ages. Is there a third coming? Nature was outrageous in earnest. According to experts, there will be more and more anomalous phenomena every year. And the reason, paradoxically, is global warming and melting glaciers.

Valery Shematovich, Head of the Solar System Research Department at the Institute of Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences:

These can be floods, hurricanes, strong cyclones and anticyclones.

Tulips covered with snow and young shoots covered with ice - this spring everyone could feel like a director of their own film about the apocalypse. However, in May, agronomists and summer residents near Moscow had no time for cinema, because they had to cut off cold shoots and uproot frozen trees.

Dmitry Zvonka, forestry engineer:

Many plants will not flower or bear fruit this year. Cherry, cherry plum and apricot in some regions have been particularly affected, so the harvest will be very poor.

Bird-cherry colds are not rare, but lagging behind the climatic norm by 10 degrees happens once every half a century. And so that it lasts more than a week ... An absolute record!

This is a lot. Never before has such a long period been observed. In addition, there has never been a temporary snow cover in May.

There is good news: after the spring that has passed us by, a quite comfortable summer will come. At least that's what the weather forecasters promise.

Roman Vilfand, director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia:

Summer is expected to be normal in the European part of the country. According to forecasts, there will be even less rainfall than last year.

Frosts until autumn, most likely, are not expected, because global cooling, if it falls to the ground, will not be very soon. According to meteorologists, this will happen at least in a thousand years.

Svetlana Bushtyreva, "Mood"

In the Volga Federal District on April 20-21, heavy precipitation is observed in the north of the district. Wet snow sticking, ice, blizzard, gusty wind, night frosts are predicted in the coming days in the Krasnodar Territory, in Novorossiysk all services are on high alert. Snow with rain and strong winds are expected in Kalmykia, Rostov, Volgograd, Astrakhan regions. “If you go to the forest for snowdrops, don’t pour more April!” people joke. And the countries of Europe and St. Petersburg were completely covered with snow. Where does the snow suddenly come from at the end of April? What's going on with the weather? The Free Press addressed this question to climatologist Anatoly Sudakov, deputy chairman of the Volgograd branch of the Russian Geographical Society.

"SP": - In recent days, after a long warm weather in March and the first half of April, an evil winter has returned to many European countries with cold gusty winds and snow storms. What is the reason for such unexpected weather excesses?

- Usually in the first half of April, a cold snap occurs or continues after the March warming. At the same time, a series of cyclones emerge from the North Atlantic, carrying, sometimes up to the Caspian Sea, cold, moist air and bringing cloudy, cold weather with freezing showers or prolonged drizzling rain. Between the exits of two successive cyclones, the weather improves, but after two or three days a new cyclone again brings lead clouds, pouring cold rain, often interspersed with snow. As a rule, the situation stabilizes only in the third decade of April.

This year, April cannot be called typical, because the average long-term course of monthly temperatures was significantly disrupted in March, which was exceptionally warm throughout the Russian Federation. So, in St. Petersburg, it exceeded the average multi-year norm for March by 2.2 °С, in Moscow by 3.4 °С, in Cheboksary by 2.8 °С, in Tambov by 4.4 °С, in Yelets by 4 .6 °С. Especially noticeable was the excess of average monthly temperatures in March, compared with the norm, in the northern regions and on the coast of the Arctic Ocean: in Khanty-Mansiysk by 4.8 °C, in Oymyakon (cold pole of the Northern Hemisphere) by 6.0 °C, by Cape Chelyuskin (the northernmost point of Eurasia) by 8.3 °C, in Salekhard by 10.2 °C, and in Tiksi by as much as 12.9 °C!

SP: Why did it happen?

- In March, the Arctic Ocean was significantly overheated, the Arctic atmospheric front moved 500-600 km to the pole, and the Polar atmospheric front moved closer to the middle of the Russian Plain. Europe was invaded by warm tropical air masses that determined the weather in it and in parts of southern Siberia for two months, starting in mid-February. Untypically warm air for the Arctic also came from the north to Russian territory. The last significant frosts that occurred before the real cold snap hit northwestern Russia at the beginning of the second decade of February; and then anomalous warming covered the entire territory of the country.

"SP": - Is there a connection between global warming and overheating of the Arctic?

- In my opinion, it is obvious. Observations show that over the past 50 years, the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean has tripled, and this is precisely the direct result of the overheating of the atmosphere.

"SP": - Why does an abnormally warm winter happen far from every year, because global warming, according to supporters of this theory, has been going on for a century and a half?

- The thermal energy of the superheated atmosphere is accumulated in the zones of cyclogenesis. The warmer the waters of the Gulf Stream, the most powerful warm current in the World Ocean, the more often cyclones occur and the more likely they are to reach hurricane strength. Due to the rotation of the Earth from east to west, these atmospheric formations move from west to east, with a slight (20−30°) deviation to the north. Cloudy and rainy weather, colder in summer and warmer in spring, compared to the weather of the previous period, is brought to the Russian Plain by cyclones of the North Atlantic passing over Europe. At the same time, the excess thermal energy of the atmosphere is converted into the kinetic energy of the wind, which dissipates in space, sometimes causing significant damage. Under such a scenario, late winter and early spring warming does not occur in Europe.

However, this year a different scenario has been realized. A massive and prolonged invasion of tropical air has led to the formation of a stable area of ​​high pressure over Scandinavia and the Baltics, the so-called blocking anticyclone, and numerous anticyclones within continental Europe. Being unable to overcome this obstacle, the Atlantic cyclones were forced to bypass it, skirting the European coast from the west through the Norwegian and Barents Seas. Cyclones continuously emerging over the overheated Atlantic "pushed" their older counterparts along the northern coast of Eurasia up to Chukotka, where the air temperature exceeded the norm by 10-13 °C. As a result, two waves of heat, from the south and from the north, warmed up the territory of Foreign Europe and Russia.

"SP": - And then suddenly the situation in Europe has changed dramatically. Why?

— The blocking anticyclone over the northeast of Eurasia has aged and disintegrated. Other anticyclone formations on the territory of Eurasia also ceased to exist (in particular, the Lower Volga anticyclone), which prevented the advancement of Atlantic cyclones deep into Eurasia. A powerful continental cyclone has formed over the Middle Volga region with its center approximately over Kazan. In such a baric formation, the movement of air occurs counterclockwise. As a result, it brings colder Arctic air to the southeast of Eurasia. A compact cyclone with a diameter of approx. 650 km from the Mediterranean, promising weather disasters associated with collisions of large masses of cold and warm air with each other.

« SP: — That is, one cyclone brought snow to Europe and St. Petersburg, and another cyclone brought cold to the South of Russia?

- In Europe, the cooling is due to the massive exit of the Atlantic cyclones, which will now again move along their usual route. In the meantime, a huge cyclonic whirlwind is gaining strength in the Norwegian Sea, from the side of the Barents Sea there is a deep invasion of Arctic air deep into the mainland up to the Lower Volga region. However, in the Asian part of Russia, abnormally warm weather persists. And there are no prerequisites for a significant cooling in this part of Russia.

Thus, the sharp April cooling observed in the northern hemisphere is not universal and does not cancel long-term trends in global climate change. At the same time, global warming itself manifests itself unevenly both in space and time and does not necessarily mean an increase in the annual temperature increase during each month throughout the Earth.

"SP": - What will May be like?

- You should not count on a too warm May this year after a two-month warming in February-April. But the increase in the contrast of weather and climate, the increase in weather anomalies, dangerous weather and climate phenomena will continue.