Korean nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons of the DPRK: threat or blackmail. Nuclear tests of the DPRK

03.03.2020

13 years ago, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea officially announced the creation of its own nuclear weapons.

“The negotiation process has stalled due to the anti-Korean hostile policy of the United States. As long as America brandishes a nuclear baton, intending to destroy our system at any cost, we will expand our stocks of nuclear weapons in order to protect the historical choice of our people, freedom and socialism, ”said the DPRK Foreign Ministry on February 10, 2005.

The grin of the "paper tiger"

The potential nuclear threat in different years was assessed by the leaders of the DPRK in different ways. At one time, the country's leadership did not attach much importance to this. North Korean leader Kim Il Sung believed that a nuclear bomb was a "paper tiger".

The beginning of work on the creation of a nuclear infrastructure in North Korea began shortly after Kim Il Sung learned that the United States during the Korean War of 1950-1953 was going to drop seven nuclear bombs on the capital of the republic. Already in 1956, cooperation began between the USSR and the DPRK in this area, at first consisting in the training of specialists.

“Nuclear weapons in North Korea appeared almost immediately after the end of the Korean War. Even then, it became obvious that North Korea needed to maximize its defense capabilities, ”said Irina Lantsova, an expert on North and South Korea, an associate professor at the Department of American Studies at St. Petersburg State University, in an interview with RT.

Statues of North Korea's founder Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il during a military parade
Reuters
Damir Sagolj

According to Yuri Tavrovsky, a professor at the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, the main reason for the start of nuclear development in the DPRK was "a deep sense of threat from Korea's traditional opponents, such as Japan and the United States, as well as the desire to rely on one's own forces, the Juche policy."

The Koreans decided not to rely on the nuclear umbrella of the Soviet Union and China, Tavrovsky believes. In addition, in his opinion, at that time the memory of a destructive and bloody war was still fresh.

"They (North Korean authorities - RT) came to the conclusion that only nuclear weapons can be a guarantee of non-repetition of war by conventional methods, which are extremely destructive, and they obviously believed that nuclear weapons would not be used, but would be a good defense, ”the expert believes.

Gradually, North Korea acquired the necessary infrastructure and already in 1974 joined the IAEA. At the same time, work began on the creation of Pyongyang's own nuclear weapons. Significant assistance in this was provided, in particular, by China, which allowed North Korean scientists to their facilities.

According to Tavrovsky, two main factors contributed to the success of the DPRK: "the overstrain of the economic, technical, scientific forces of North Korea itself", as well as "conscious and unconscious transfers of technology by other countries, such as the Soviet Union, the People's Republic of China and, possibly, Pakistan" . At the last stage, already in our time, the Koreans bought out technologies or specialists from Ukraine, from Dnepropetrovsk, where the Yuzhmash plant is located, which produced the heaviest liquid rockets for the Soviet Union, which are known in the West as Satan.

In 1985, counting on the help of the USSR in the construction of nuclear power plants, Pyongyang, under pressure from Moscow, signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. In the early 1990s, IAEA inspectors frequented the country, and the results of their checks were ambiguous.

In the spring of 1993, the DPRK announced its intention to withdraw from the Treaty, and in the summer of 1994 the country left the IAEA. Subsequently, it became known that it was in 1994 that the United States almost attacked the Yongbyon reactor, North Korea's largest nuclear facility. However, after analyzing the inevitable victims, Clinton abandoned this venture.

After a visit to the DPRK by former US President Jimmy Carter, the countries managed to sign the so-called Framework Agreement at the end of 1994. According to this document, North Korea, in particular, took upon itself the obligation to stop building, as well as use the infrastructure for uranium enrichment and extract plutonium from reactors, withdraw enriched nuclear fuel from the DPRK and dismantle all facilities one way or another related to nuclear weapons.

The US was to supply fuel oil to North Korea under the agreement and build two much larger light water reactors to replace the Yongbyon reactor, which was shut down. They could not be used to produce nuclear fuel.

Dashing zero

In 2001, George W. Bush came to power in the United States, who included the DPRK in the list of "rogue states". Under him, the promised reactors were not built, but the requirements for North Korea became more and more. As early as 2002, the US announced Pyongyang's failure to comply with the Framework Agreement and accused the DPRK of continuing to enrich uranium. At the end of the year, North Korea expelled IAEA employees from its territory and announced the continuation of work on the nuclear program.

The result of a new round of confrontation between the United States and the DPRK in January 2003 was Pyongyang's withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

The six-party talks between North Korea, China, the United States, Russia, South Korea, and Japan that began in the summer of 2003 also came to nothing. In 2004, North Korea refused to participate, demanding clarification about South Korea's nuclear program, which, as it turned out, had been going on for four years.

On February 10, 2005, the DPRK announced the creation of nuclear weapons, but the first test was carried out only in October 2006. Several tests of new weapons by North Korea are known from 2006 to 2017.

Kim Jong Un watches a rocket launch
Reuters

In 2017, Pyongyang announced the test of a thermonuclear charge, the so-called hydrogen bomb.

Experts note that the development of the North Korean nuclear program was a forced measure.

“Already after Iraq, and then after Libya and Syria, it became clear that there are no other ways to defend sovereignty. If North Korea did not have a nuclear program, it is likely that it would have already been bombed, ”Konstantin Asmolov, an employee of the Center for Korean Studies at the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with RT.

According to the expert, North Korea exists in an unfriendly environment, for example, from the point of view of South Korea, the DPRK does not exist as a state. Formally, the South Korean Constitution also applies to the northern territories.

Delivered to the White House

North Korea began developing a nuclear delivery vehicle in 1988. It took ten years to create the Taepodong-1 medium-range ballistic missile - the first launch was made in 1998.

From 1999 to 2005, the DPRK observed a unilateral moratorium on missile testing, introduced following negotiations with the Clinton administration in exchange for food aid.

“Dialogue with the United States ended in 2001 with the coming to power of the Bush administration, which means that we have the right to resume missile testing,” read the text of a statement by the DPRK Foreign Ministry, which was published on March 3, 2005.

In subsequent years, Pyongyang continued to launch rockets, and at the end of 2012, North Korea became a space power, successfully launching the Gwangmyeongsong-3 satellite into orbit.

In 2017, which fell in the Sea of Japan, became the reason for the convening of the UN Security Council. Soon another one was produced, which fell into the Pacific Ocean, flying over the Japanese island of Hokkaido.

The United States is particularly concerned about the latest version of the Hwaseong, the Hwaseong-15, which, according to experts, can hit any target in the United States.

Today, North Korea is also an exporter of missiles. Among its largest buyers are the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Syria, Libya, Pakistan and Yemen. In addition, the Iranian carriers were presumably made on the basis of the North Korean Taekhodong-2.

Sanction pressure

The DPRK developed its nuclear program under harsh conditions, by Japan and South Korea, and by the European Union, and even by Australia. The UN was established in relation to the DPRK. Each nuclear test was followed by a package of sanctions that affected almost all spheres of life - from cultural exchanges and money transfers to a ban on the supply of various raw materials and goods.

According to Lantsova, North Korea has achieved a very good result under tough sanctions: significant success has been achieved in the work on the nuclear missile program - this applies to both delivery vehicles and the nuclear weapons themselves.

From the side of the United States, pressure on North Korea intensified with the coming to power of Donald Trump, who had already managed to threaten the DPRK with complete annihilation.

“The United States has a lot of strength and patience, but if we have to defend ourselves, then we will have no choice but to completely destroy the DPRK. Rocket Man (- RT) embarked on a suicide mission, ”said the head of the White House, speaking at the UN.

However, the real danger posed by the DPRK raises serious doubts among experts. According to Tavrovsky, the likelihood that North Korea will be the first to launch a nuclear strike is minimal.

“The North Koreans have achieved all their goals. They have achieved what they have been malnourished for many years, overworked. They practically created a nuclear missile shield, this has already been recognized by all the opponents of the DPRK, ”the expert is sure.

Meanwhile, Asmolov admits the possibility that North Korea could act first if provoked.

“If the North Korean leadership is confident that there are no peaceful alternatives and that they are already going to be killed, they will naturally act on the “hit first” principle,” the expert emphasized.

The North Korean leadership demonstrated a resolute attitude and independence of its policy on the eve of the start of the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang. On February 8, 2018, a military parade was held in the capital of the DPRK, Pyongyang, in honor of the 70th anniversary of the People's Democratic Republic. Traditionally, the celebrations take place in April. However, the country's authorities decided to hold the event in February, timed to coincide with the anniversary of the founding of the regular army of North Korea. At the parade, a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile "Hwaseong-15".

"As long as the hostile policy of the United States persists, the mission of the people's army, acting as a powerful sword to protect the country, will continue," North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said, speaking at a parade in front of the military.

In the light of recent developments regarding the DPRK's nuclear program, it is once again coming to the fore in international politics. The belligerent statements of official Pyongyang, which follow one after another almost every day, only add fuel to the fire. On March 30, the DPRK announced that its relations with South Korea had "entered a military phase" and that all problems would now be resolved "as in wartime." If we take into account these formulations, North Korea has actually declared war on its southern neighbor. At the same time, both sides of the conflict more than 60 years ago have never officially signed a peace treaty.

At the same time, the Republic of Korea is not inclined to overdramatize the situation. The statements of the DPRK in Seoul are regarded as a continuation of the policy of verbal blackmail. The Ministry of Defense of South Korea confirmed the fact that the troops of the northern neighbor did not notice any signs of preparation for an attack and unusual troop movements. At the same time, a few days ago, the head of the DPRK tourism organization, who visited China, assured worried Chinese tour operators that "there will be no war", urging them to send "as many tourists as possible" to the Juche Country. It is worth noting that five-day excursions to the DPRK with visits to the cities of Pyongyang, Kaesong, Wonsan, as well as the Kymgangsan mountains cost almost $ 1,000 for those who wish. In a country that is experiencing an acute shortage of foreign exchange, tourism plays a very important role.

Nuclear program of the DPRK

North Korea was one of the first countries in the Asia-Pacific region to launch secret work to master military nuclear technology. This is largely due to the situation that developed on the Korean Peninsula after the end of World War II and which resulted in the full-scale Korean War of 1950-1953 between North and South. The United States and its allies, as well as the PRC and the USSR, were drawn into this military campaign. The deployment of American troops and the US tactical sea and air-based tactical nuclear arsenal in South Korea to a large extent contributed to maintaining tension in this region. At one time, the leadership of North Korea had serious fears that in the course of a possible military conflict on the peninsula, these weapons could be used.

The first ruler of the DPRK, Kim Il Sung, attached great importance to nuclear missile research. He was one of the first leaders of the third world countries to assess the potential of new weapons and, despite a large number of difficulties, began to seek their possession. The United States taught him the first clear lesson when they launched nuclear strikes on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. These full-scale tests of the new weapon made a stunning impression on him. And they clearly demonstrated to the future North Korean leader that nuclear weapons are not a "paper tiger" and their use for military purposes can be decisive in achieving victory over the enemy. Kim Il Sung learned his second lesson during the Korean War, when the US military-political leadership seriously considered the possibility of launching nuclear strikes against North Korea. It is worth noting that the leader of the DPRK turned out to be a diligent student and the creation of its own nuclear weapons became one of the main programs of the DPRK for many decades.

The foundation in 1964 of a research center in Yongbyon can be considered an active start of work on the nuclear program, where, along with research in the field of nuclear energy, military-applied research soon began. This center was founded with the direct support of the USSR. Already in 1965, the first research reactor IRT-2000 with a capacity of 2 MW was put into operation here. Since 1985, the construction of another nuclear reactor began in Yongbyon, this time its capacity was to be 50 MW. Also in the area of Tongcheon, the construction of a 200 MW reactor was launched. According to experts, these reactors have a dual purpose.

The nuclear program in the DPRK is directly supervised by the Ministry of Atomic Industry, which is part of the State Administrative Council (Cabinet of Ministers). Today, when the design of the simplest nuclear weapons is no longer a secret, the most critical element of military nuclear programs is to obtain the required amount of fissile materials - plutonium or highly enriched uranium. For its nuclear program, North Korea has chosen plutonium as its main base fissile material. That is why information on how much weapons-grade plutonium is currently in North Korea is of the greatest practical value.

At the same time, the high secrecy and closeness of North Korean society make it impossible to give an unambiguous answer to this question. Therefore, here you can rely only on the information of the special services, which was transmitted to the media and the results of approximate calculations. So, for example, to determine the approximate volume of plutonium produced in reactors, experts often use the following simple relationship: during the day, an operating reactor is able to produce 1 gram of plutonium for every megawatt of its power. Based on this, the Yongbyon reactor with a capacity of 5 MW is able to produce 5 gr. plutonium per day or up to 1.8 kg. per year, and a 50-megawatt reactor is already up to 20 kg. plutonium per year, which is enough to make 4-5 nuclear weapons.

Over the past decades, work has been carried out in the DPRK to create an extensive nuclear infrastructure, which includes not only research, but also manufacturing enterprises. At present, the general public knows the location of the main nuclear facilities of the DPRK.

Location of North Korea's nuclear infrastructure facilities

yongbyon
It is actually the main center for the design and manufacture of nuclear weapons. Atomic Energy Research Center, which includes: Institute of Nuclear Electronics, Institute of Nuclear Physics, Institute of Radiation Chemistry, Institute of Isotopes, Radiochemical Laboratory, Critical Assembly with a capacity of 0.1 MW, as well as 3 reactors: a 5 MW reactor, a thermal reactor 8 MW and a 50 MW reactor. The center also includes a nuclear fuel plant, an isotope processing facility, and a testing ground for explosive devices.

Nuclear facilities in Yongbyon

Suncheon, Ungi, Heungnam
Operating uranium mines.

Kuson
Uranium processing plant, obtaining UO2 - uranium dioxide.

Nannam
Nuclear Energy Research Center.

bakchon
Operating uranium mine and enrichment plant, research center for atomic energy. Presumably, this center is developing nuclear weapons.

Pyeongsan
Production of uranium dioxide, Enterprise for the extraction and processing of uranium ore.

Phenson
Atomic Energy Research Center and Pyongsong Science University.

Pyongyang
College of Nuclear Physics as part of the Technological University. Kim Cheek and the College of Nuclear Physics at Kim Il Sung University.

hamhung
The University of the Chemical Industry trains specialists in the field of nuclear materials processing.

An analysis of the nuclear infrastructure of North Korea indicates a wide range of work in this area. At the same time, they cover all aspects of this rather complex scientific and technical problem. Attention is also drawn to the fact that large research centers have been created in the DPRK, which are able to conduct not only theoretical, but also practical research in this area. At the same time, the production capacities available to the DPRK for producing weapons-grade plutonium look like the weakest link. This shortcoming is the main limiting factor for North Korea in the issue of the accumulation of its military nuclear arsenal.

North Korea joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in December 1985, but already in March 1993 announced its desire to withdraw from it. However, the exit dragged on for 10 years, during which the DPRK, if you call a spade a spade, blackmailed the world community with this issue, using it as a trump card in its international politics. On January 11, 2003, the DPRK formally released itself from all obligations under the NPT.

On February 10, 2005, North Korea officially acknowledged for the first time the existence of nuclear weapons of its own production. This was announced by the country's Foreign Ministry, which noted that the DPRK's nuclear weapons are a "nuclear deterrent force" and are "entirely defensive" in nature. On October 9, 2006, the first underground test of a nuclear device was conducted in North Korea. According to Russian specialists, the power of the underground explosion was 10-15 kt.

Under pressure from the world community, North Korea suspended its nuclear program for 3 years, but eventually resumed it again on April 14, 2009. At the request of North Korea, IAEA inspectors left the country. On May 25, 2009, North Korea conducted its second nuclear test. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the power of the tested nuclear charge was from 10 to 20 kt. Also in May 2010, the DPRK announced successes in thermonuclear fusion, which could increase the yield of its nuclear weapons hundreds of times.

At the end of 2012, the South Korean Ministry of Defense released a "White Paper" that included the views of experts from both South Korea and the United States on the expansion of North Korea's nuclear program. Analyzing images from space, experts said that the DPRK has other uranium enrichment enterprises, in addition to a large center in Yongbyon. Also in this book contained information that North Korea has approximately 40 kg. weapons-grade plutonium, which was obtained by reprocessing spent fuel rods four times.

The next round of aggravation of international tension on the Korean peninsula was facilitated by the third nuclear tests of the DPRK, which were carried out on February 12, 2013. Russian special services estimated the power of the detonated nuclear device at 5 kt. After the third nuclear test, North Korea's rhetoric became more aggressive and led to another escalation of the conflict between the two Koreas, so far only in the form of verbal attacks and threats.

Information sources:
-http://ria.ru/spravka/20130330/930107861-print.html
-http://www.rg.ru/2013/03/30/kndr-site.html
-http://world.lib.ru/k/kim_o_i/ab.shtml

Seismologists from a number of countries on September 3 recorded unusual tremors in North Korea. According to Yonhap, according to the Korea Meteorological Agency, located in South Korea, the magnitude of the earthquake was 5.6 points. Geophysicists drew attention to the fact that seismic activity was recorded near the city of Kilju in the province of Hamgyongbukto, where the North Korean nuclear test site is located. The data of South Korean scientists were confirmed by their colleagues from the USA, Japan and China. According to the Chinese side, the power of the push was 6.3 points.

The earthquake happened around 6:30 Moscow time. Chinese and South Korean scientists also recorded a second tremor of less power - about 4.6 points. According to experts from the China Seismological Center (CENC), the second earthquake occurred at 6:38 Moscow time - presumably, it was a collapse and subsidence of the rock that collapsed as a result of the first shock.

According to the Primorsky Department for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, weak echoes of the earthquake in North Korea were also felt in Vladivostok. However, the radiation background in the Russian Primorye is within the normal range.

“After the alleged nuclear test in the DPRK, no excess background radiation was recorded in the Primorsky Territory,” the agency said in a statement.

According to the United States Geological Survey, tremors in North Korea are nothing more than a "possible explosion."

“If what happened is not an explosion, the National Earthquake Center of the United States Geological Survey cannot determine it (earthquakes. — RT) type,” seismologists said.

Chinese specialists also reported about the "explosion" of high power as a probable cause of two tremors.

The Japanese military noted that the yield of the North Korean bomb was 70 kilotons. The South Korean side estimated the yield of the charge at 100 kilotons, and the Norwegian seismologists talk about an indicator of 120 kilotons - this is six times more powerful than the US bomb dropped on Nagasaki in 1945 (21 kilotons).

In Seoul, an urgent council on internal and external security was convened in connection with the testing of nuclear weapons by Pyongyang.

South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported that North Korea has confirmed the first test of a hydrogen bomb and called it "absolutely successful." The Daily Telegraph reports that North Korean television also reported on the successful test of a thermonuclear charge.

"Power (explosion. - RT) is 10 or 20 times greater than in previous tests,” Kun She, a professor at Seoul National University, told Reuters. “Such a scale speaks of testing a hydrogen bomb,” the expert confirms the information to the media.

Juche motifs

“The test of the hydrogen bomb was conducted in order to test and confirm the accuracy and performance of the power control technology and the internal design of the hydrogen bomb designed to be placed on intercontinental ballistic missiles, the production of which has recently begun,” Yonhap was quoted by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). ), the official news agency of the DPRK.

Shortly before the tremors were recorded, the KCNA posted information that the country had developed a new compact hydrogen warhead that could be placed on intercontinental ballistic missiles. Two tests of missiles with a range of up to 10,000 km, capable of hitting not only American bases on the island of Guam in the Pacific Ocean, but also the west coast of the United States, North Korea conducted in July.

North Korean ballistic missile launch
KCNA/Reuters

The new thermonuclear warhead was personally examined by the leader of the country Kim Jong-un, visiting the Institute for Nuclear Research. “The Supreme Leader watched as a hydrogen bomb was planted on an ICBM,” the KCNA statement emphasized.

“All components of the hydrogen bomb were made by domestic manufacturers, based on the Juche idea. Thus, the country can produce powerful nuclear weapons in as many quantities as it pleases, ”KCNA quotes the North Korean leader.

Immediately after reports of the development of a new nuclear bomb in the DPRK, the leaders of Japan and the United States held telephone conversations on the North Korean issue. Donald Trump and Shinzo Abe "discussed the growing threat from the DPRK" and ways to put pressure on Pyongyang, the White House press service said.

In turn, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono called the actions of the DPRK absolutely inexcusable and called on Russia to put more pressure on North Korea, in particular, to consider imposing an oil embargo on Pyongyang.

However, this gesture, taking into account the history of the region, can be perceived in Pyongyang as a provocation, against the backdrop of ongoing exercises by the United States and South Korea.

“The fuel embargo is directly a preparation for war,” Konstantin Asmolov, a leading researcher at the Center for Korean Studies at the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told RT. "Because if you've studied history, you know what role the American fuel embargo played in Japan's entry into the war with the United States in 1941."

“Here, both technical and political reasons are intertwined,” explained political scientist Irina Lantsova, who is conducting a nuclear test by the DPRK right now. “The main reason is pressure and threats from the United States, forcing Pyongyang to strengthen its defenses.”

First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense Alexander Sherin, in an interview with RT, said that the United States provoked the DPRK.

“Here I must say a big thank you to the United States, because they put the squeeze on the country. It was they who created such conditions when the state begins to shrink into a ball and spend money on defense. Let American soldiers and bases go to the borders of the United States, and there will be no such arms race in the world, ”the deputy emphasized.

“Now North Korea has found itself in such a situation that it needs to protect itself with a guarantee, and in order to guarantee this protection, it is necessary to conduct tests,” Lantsova notes. “Politics plays a role here indirectly. In this case, it’s not even a demonstration, but a reaction to what is happening.”

“Kim’s goals are clear: to try now, in a very short time, to bring his nuclear missile program to such a level that it would be clear to everyone that there is no third option - either a war starts, or it is necessary to negotiate with North Korea,” said Konstantin Asmolov.

“You have to understand that Kim is not going to communize the south or portray the main reptile of Indian cinema in a fit of psychopathy, his goals are more pragmatic,” the expert says.

KCNA/Reuters

According to Asmolov, Pyongyang believes that, having received nuclear charges capable of reaching the United States, it will reach a level of nuclear deterrence similar to that of the US-China. And then, despite the contradictions, the option of war between the two countries will be excluded.

We understand but do not accept

“It cannot but cause regret that the leadership of the DPRK, by its actions aimed at undermining the global non-proliferation regime, poses a serious threat to peace and security on the Korean Peninsula and in the region as a whole. The continuation of such a line is fraught with serious consequences for the DPRK itself, ”the Russian Foreign Ministry commented on the nuclear test in the DPRK.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) called Pyongyang's actions "an extremely sad act" and "a complete disregard for the repeated demands of the international community."

According to the Japanese Foreign Ministry, Tokyo has already sent a protest to Pyongyang through diplomatic channels in connection with the test of a thermonuclear charge. Shinzo Abe ordered to keep in touch with representatives of the United States, Russia and China in order to quickly respond to the developing crisis.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
Reuters

“The actions of the DPRK are understandable, but unacceptable, because such a policy, firstly, greatly exacerbates tensions, and secondly, undermines the world order, which is built on the authority of the UN, whose resolutions are ignored, and on the fact that nuclear weapons should be who is supposed to, - notes Konstantin Asmolov. “That is why Moscow and Beijing may question the substance of the sanctions, but believe that every such action should be formally condemned.”

According to the expert, the DPRK chose the date of the test unsuccessfully. “The congress of the Communist Party of China is on the nose, today is the BRICS summit - I think that this will cause a certain emotional irritation of Moscow and Beijing and, of course, we should expect a new round of tightening sanctions, although there is nowhere to tighten further,” Asmolov said.

Frants Klintsevich, deputy chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Security and Defense, in an interview with RT, called the DPRK nuclear test a provocation.

“If earlier it was a sparring, which, in my opinion, could hardly lead to any serious conflicts, then the tests that have passed today are already a provocation on the part of North Korea. This is really serious. I think this can no longer be allowed. There is no alternative to the negotiation process and peaceful conversation. Today we need to sit down at the negotiating table and solve this problem, because North Korea’s upholding its sovereignty in this way can lead to a very serious conflict, ”Klintsevich emphasized.

Trump will answer

What is Trump going to do now? - Increase pressure on Russia and China to achieve some serious joint action. The bet is that the irritation of Moscow and Beijing with such a step by North Korea will make them more accommodating in terms of American proposals, ”Konstantin Asmolov believes.

In turn, South Korea has already stated that it will seek tougher sanctions against the DPRK, according to Yonhap, citing the head of the National Security Department of the Presidential Administration of South Korea, Jung Eui-yong.

The agency notes that the Korean official has already held relevant consultations with his American counterpart, National Security Adviser to President Trump, General Herbert McMaster. Yonhap also reports that South Korea will seek to host "the most powerful tactical weapon" of the United States.

“A very serious escalation awaits us, one of the most difficult in the past six months,” Irina Lantsova predicts the consequences of new nuclear tests in the DPRK.

US President Donald Trump
Reuters

According to the expert, the main problem now is that after a number of high-profile statements from the United States, the leaders of this country have seriously limited their room for maneuver and will most likely be forced to escalate. “The problem is that Trump has threatened so much, promised so much that he now has to do something,” the political scientist says.

“This is not the first nuclear test - this is the sixth nuclear test, and it has always been possible to do something diplomatically,” the expert notes. “But over the past six months, so many formidable promises have been made to do something that you will now have to answer for your words,” Lantsova believes.

“We should expect more emotional involvement,” Asmolov notes. According to the expert, despite the expected tightening of rhetoric from the United States, the likelihood of a new war in Korea now is “only” 35%. “I used to say that the probability of a conflict on the peninsula is about 30%, now it has increased by five percent,” the expert believes.

Nuclear missile program of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea- the conventional name for the scientific research of the DPRK in the field of creating combat nuclear charges and rocket carriers intended for their delivery.

The official names of the programs being implemented and the structure of scientific projects are not published, research on the topic is carried out on the basis of observations external to the DPRK and official reports from the state bodies of North Korea. Rocket tests, according to the official version, are peaceful in nature and are carried out for the purpose of exploring outer space.

Under the protection of the USSR, the DPRK ruler Kim Il Sung was calm about the nuclear threat against his country (in particular, he called the atomic bomb a “paper tiger”) until he learned that during the Korean War of 1950-1953, the United States planned drop seven nuclear charges on Pyongyang and its environs. After that, in 1956, the DPRK and the USSR signed an agreement on the training of nuclear specialists. Researchers often refer to the year 1952 as the beginning of North Korea's nuclear activity, when the decision was made to establish the Atomic Energy Research Institute. The real creation of nuclear infrastructure began in the mid-1960s.

Work on the creation of nuclear weapons began in the 1970s. Probably, the political decision to start work was made during this period, in connection with the receipt of intelligence data about the existence of a similar program in South Korea. In 1974, the DPRK joined the IAEA. In the same year, Pyongyang turned to China for help in building nuclear weapons; North Korean specialists were admitted to Chinese training grounds.

North Korea and the IAEA

In April 1985, under pressure from the USSR and counting on the construction of a nuclear power plant with its help, the DPRK signed the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons. As a reward for this, in 1986 the USSR supplied Korea with a gas-graphite research reactor with a capacity of 5 MW. An agreement was also signed to build a nuclear power plant in North Korea with four light water reactors of the VVER-440 type. With some probability, all the plutonium available to the DPRK was produced on it. In 1992, this agreement was refined, and instead of four light water reactors, it was decided to supply three, but more powerful VVER-640 reactors. A contract was also signed for the supply of fuel assemblies by the Soviet Union in the amount of about 185 thousand dollars.

South Korean experts doubt that it was a nuclear explosion. In their opinion, there might not have been an explosion at all, and the emission of smoke into the atmosphere was a consequence of a major fire. According to some reports, there may be a plant for the production of missile components in the area, and the cause of the explosion could be the ignition of rocket fuel or the detonation of warheads. According to other information, military-strategic facilities are concentrated in this area, in particular, the recently built Yonjori missile base, which is an underground missile test site where ballistic missiles capable of reaching Japan are stored and tested in deep tunnels.

Official American authorities believe that there was no nuclear explosion. At the same time, American intelligence services noted strange activity in the area of the country's nuclear facilities.

Refusal to negotiate

"Dialogue with the US ended in 2001 with the coming to power of the Bush administration, which means that we have the right to resume missile testing," said a spokesman for the DPRK Foreign Ministry.

On June 14, 2006, the American media, citing a source in the US presidential administration, stated that satellite photographs clearly show a launch complex in the DPRK, which is said to be preparing to launch the Taekhodong-2 missile, which can reach the west coast USA.

On July 5, 2006, North Korea launched several missiles at once - from seven to ten, according to various sources. All missiles fell in international waters. Some reportedly fell dozens of kilometers from Russia's maritime borders, in the Russian economic zone.

On April 5, 2009, the Eunha-2 (Milky Way - 2) rocket was launched from the territory of the DPRK, according to the official version, with the Gwangmyeongson-2 artificial satellite. According to North Korean reports, the satellite has been placed into an elliptical orbit with an inclination of 40.6 degrees, a perigee of 490 km and an apogee of 1,426 km, and is broadcasting Songs of Commander Kim Il Sung and Songs of Commander Kim Jong Il. External sources did not record the appearance of a new satellite in near-Earth orbit.

Nuclear tests

In September 2006, US media, citing government sources, reported that US intelligence satellites detected suspicious activity at a nuclear test site in the northern part of the DPRK - the appearance of a large number of trucks and cable laying work. These works were regarded as evidence of preparations for an underground nuclear explosion. South Korea has called on North Korea not to conduct nuclear tests. Pyongyang left these messages without comment.

At the end of September, a bill approved by both houses of the US Congress was sent to US President George W. Bush for signature. The bill imposed sanctions against North Korea and companies cooperating with it, which, according to the United States, are assisting the DPRK in the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), missiles and other WMD delivery technologies. The sanctions also included a ban on financial transactions and a denial of export licenses.

On October 3, 2006, the DPRK Foreign Ministry issued a statement stating North Korea's intention to "carry out a nuclear test, provided that its safety will be reliably guaranteed". As a justification for this decision, the threat of nuclear war from the United States and economic sanctions aimed at strangling the DPRK were announced - in these conditions, Pyongyang sees no other way out than to conduct a nuclear test. At the same time, as noted in the statement, "the DPRK is not going to be the first to use nuclear weapons," on the contrary, "it will continue to make efforts to ensure the nuclear-free status of the Korean Peninsula and make comprehensive efforts towards nuclear disarmament and a total ban on nuclear weapons."

On October 6, members of the UN Security Council unanimously approved a statement by the President of the Security Council calling on North Korea to abandon nuclear tests and immediately return to negotiations in the six-party format without preconditions. The draft statement was prepared by Japan. It was she who took the initiative to develop a common position of the world powers regarding the North Korean threat.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe traveled to Beijing and Seoul on October 8, 2006 to discuss the "Korean problem", thus resuming high-level contacts between Japan and China (which had been interrupted five years earlier). This fact testifies to the importance attached by the countries of the region to the first ever test of the Korean atomic bomb. Chinese leader

Does North Korea have the resource base for a nuclear program?

Nuclear weapons can be made from either weapons-grade plutonium (plutonium-239) or highly enriched uranium (uranium-235). The first two nuclear tests, in 2006 and 2009, were carried out by North Korea using charges made from weapons-grade plutonium, writes the American non-governmental Arms Control Association. North Korea's key nuclear facility, which houses most of the country's equipment, research and development related to both civilian and military nuclear activities, is the Yenbyon Center, located 90 km north of Pyongyang. In 1986, a gas-graphite reactor was launched there, and its experts consider it the main source of weapons-grade plutonium (capable of producing up to 6 kg per year).

How much weapons-grade plutonium the DPRK has accumulated is unknown. According to 2008 data provided by the Nuclear Threat Initiative website, North Korea could have received 39 kg of weapons-grade plutonium. However, Aleksey Arbatov, head of the Center for International Security at IMEMO RAS, believes that as of 2017, Pyongyang has approximately 50-60 kg of weapons-grade plutonium.

North Korea admitted in 2016 that it was producing highly enriched uranium from low-enriched uranium, the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said. The plant, opened back in 2010, is capable of producing 2 tons of low-enriched uranium or about 40 kg of highly enriched uranium annually, according to the Arms Control Association. Alexey Arbatov says that North Korea acquires nuclear technologies, materials and even specialists on the global black market. “There is a huge market for nuclear materials – low-enriched uranium, uranium ore. Having certain technologies, it is possible to make highly enriched uranium from low-enriched uranium,” says Arbatov.

Total: reserves of weapons-grade plutonium - 39-60 kg, the possibility of producing weapons-grade plutonium - 6 kg per year, highly enriched uranium - up to 40 kg per year.

How many ready-made nuclear warheads does North Korea have?

On September 3, the DPRK announced that it had tested a thermonuclear bomb (the sixth nuclear test in the history of the country, the first took place in 2006). However, there is no independent confirmation of this information. International experts reported that on the day of the test, an earthquake of magnitude 5.8 on the Richter scale occurred in the DPRK. According to the estimates of the Norwegian Foundation for Geological and Physical Research (NORSAR), the power of the underground explosion that caused it was 120 kt of TNT. To make sure that it was the hydrogen bomb that was tested, it is possible only by taking samples of the rocks in the test area, the researchers point out.

No matter what type of bomb Pyongyang has tested, NORSAR notes that the power of the DPRK's explosive devices increases with each new test. If the charge power during the first test in 2006 was about 1 kt in TNT equivalent, then ten years later, in September 2016, it reached about 20 kt, the report says.

According to SIPRI, North Korea has 10-20 nuclear warheads. Bloomberg, citing American military analysts, claims that the arsenal of the DPRK has 60 nuclear warheads.

In total: the number of nuclear warheads is at least ten, the yield is at least 20 kt in TNT equivalent.

What means of delivery of nuclear weapons does the DPRK have?

North Korea has been developing a missile program since the 1960s. Assistance in this was provided by the USSR, China, and the countries of the Middle East. The DPRK had 15 types of ballistic missiles in August 2017, according to the Arms Control Association.

The Nodon-1 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) is capable of covering a distance of about 1.5 thousand km, that is, it is capable of hitting Japan and South Korea. Another MRBM, "Musudan", theoretically can overcome up to 4 thousand km (its tests were not successful). Tested in May 2017, the Hwaseong-12 can hit targets within a radius of about 4.5 thousand km (American Guam is located 3.4 thousand km from the DPRK). The intercontinental ballistic missile "Hwaseong-14", first tested in July 2017, is capable of delivering a charge over a distance of more than 10 thousand km, that is, it can reach US limits. According to some information, the missiles of these modifications are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

In addition, the DPRK is developing KN-08 and KN-14 missiles, the flight range of which can be up to 11.5 thousand km.

The exact number of missiles in the strategic forces of the North Korean army is unknown. According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative website, North Korea has about 200 Nodong missiles. , however, independent experts consider this number too high.

Alexei Arbatov, in a conversation with RBC, said that North Korea has from 80 to 100 ballistic missiles of various ranges (from 100-200 km to 1000-1500 km).

According to Vasily Kashin, a senior researcher at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, according to the most conservative estimates, the DPRK has only a few Hwasons, and it is unlikely that their number reaches even ten. These missiles are still under development and testing, which means that they have not yet been put into service and are not ready for mass production. In addition, the DPRK simply will not be able to support more than 20-30 Hwaseong-12 and Hwaseong-14 missiles, even if the tests are completed and mass production begins. The maintenance of such missiles is very expensive: in addition to production, they require a certain infrastructure for maintenance and security, explains Kashin. North Korea has about 100 rockets of the Nodon family, the expert believes.

Total: about 100 missiles with a flight range of up to 1.5 thousand km, less than ten missiles with a flight range of more than 4 thousand km.

Are North Korea's neighbors capable of defending themselves?

In response to the continuing threat from the DPRK, South Korea began deploying the US THAAD missile defense system. The US began deploying THAADs to South Korea in March of this year and has deployed two of at least six planned.

THAAD in South Korea is not yet able to cover the Seoul agglomeration, where 25 million people live, that is, half of the country's population, says Kashin. “It covers 60% of the territories of South Korea, so its usefulness has always raised certain doubts,” the expert says. Given the fact that only two out of six complexes have been deployed so far, Seoul's vulnerability is obvious, but if the remaining four complexes are located closer to the demilitarized zone, that is, to the border between the DPRK and South Korea, then the chances of minimizing the North Korean threat will increase, Kashin believes.

Japan, after the July tests of the DPRK, also decided to strengthen its defenses. Tokyo is considering acquiring new installations for the US sea-based Aegis anti-missile system and deploying its sister system, Aegis Ashore, to the coast to strengthen defense capabilities.

Japan already has a two-layer missile defense system - the naval Aegis and the Patriot Advanced Capability-3, or PAC-3 systems, equipped with ground-to-air missiles to hit targets at an altitude of 12 km. The Patriot complex will be activated if the Aegis system fails to intercept flying objects, Aegis Ashore increases the likelihood of a successful interception of missiles.

If the US missile defense system can intercept a missile with a nuclear warhead, it will simply collapse, but it will release radioactive material, explains Kashin. “A very complex process must take place in order for a nuclear charge to be detonated. If the charge and the rocket are destroyed, then a release of radioactive material will occur. The interception itself takes place at an altitude of several tens of kilometers, so the consequences of this release will be insignificant. The contamination of the area will not be very strong, ”the expert concludes.

However, even under ideal conditions, the probability of North Korean missiles being intercepted by American missile defense systems in Japan and South Korea "will not be 100%, because most of the tests were carried out in a situation far from combat," Kashin said. North Korea can launch dozens of missiles at once, and it is hardly possible to intercept such a salvo. “It is impossible to determine among the missiles going in this salvo which of them have a nuclear warhead and which one has a conventional warhead. Accordingly, the likelihood that you will intercept a nuclear missile is low, ”the expert concludes.

Even if Pyongyang strikes Japan, the country will not cease to exist and will not turn into ashes despite the threats of the DPRK, notes Dmitry Streltsov, a Japanologist, head of the Department of Oriental Studies at the Faculty of International Relations at MGIMO. However, in his opinion, in the event of a strike on Japan, “we can talk about major damage” and colossal human casualties, given the high population density. However, this does not mean at all that "the islands will sink into the sea," as Kim Jong-un promised.

South Korea is in a more difficult position: the DPRK can use conventional weapons to attack it. For example, the heavy artillery of North Korea, stationed at the very border, is capable of inflicting irreparable damage on Seoul in the very first hours of the war. However, we are not talking about the simultaneous destruction of South Korea. Finally, there are reasonable doubts about the ability of the DPRK to inflict at least some damage on the island of Guam or the US continental territory with the help of nuclear missiles, not to mention "wipe the US into ashes and darkness."

Nuclear tests of the DPRK

North Korea conducted the first nuclear tests, the explosion yield was about 1 kt of TNT. The tests triggered an earthquake measuring 4.2 on the Richter scale.

The power of the explosion is about 5 kt in TNT equivalent. The magnitude of the earthquake after testing is 4.7 on the Richter scale.

The power of the third underground nuclear explosion was 10-15 kt, the tests caused an earthquake with a magnitude of about 5 on the Richter scale. North Korean authorities said they have tested a miniature nuclear weapon that can be placed on ballistic missiles of different ranges.

Pyongyang announced its fourth nuclear test, a hydrogen bomb. Its thickness, according to various sources, ranged from 15 to 20 kt. The explosion triggered an earthquake of magnitude 5 on the Richter scale.

The power of the fifth test was, according to the American Arms Control Association, 20-25 kt in TNT equivalent. The magnitude of the earthquake after the explosion reached 5.2 on the Richter scale.

The North Korean authorities said that during the sixth nuclear test they again used a hydrogen bomb. According to the NORSAR Foundation, an explosion with a capacity of about 120 kt of TNT led to an earthquake with a magnitude of 5.8 on the Richter scale.

Sources: Norwegian Foundation for Geological and Physical Research, American Arms Control Association