The main directions of development of the economy and agriculture. Trends in the development of agriculture. global food problem

02.11.2019

In 2008, it was noted that the measures taken in recent years aimed at improving the socio-economic situation in the agrarian sector of Russia made it possible to form a trend of increasing production and increasing the efficiency of agricultural production.

The average annual growth rate for the five years from 2003 to 2007 was 102.7%. Significant changes have taken place in macroeconomic policy. Credit resources have become more accessible to agricultural producers, and investment activity in agriculture has increased. The average annual investment growth rate over the five-year period was 122.5%. The development of agricultural production took place against the backdrop of a favorable global situation and improvement of economic conditions in the agricultural sector due to the implementation of the priority national project "Development of the Agro-Industrial Complex". The factors limiting development were the low level of energy and capital-labor ratio, chemicalization, insufficient level of agrotechnical culture, shortage of qualified specialists, and underdevelopment of the domestic market infrastructure.

In 2011, Russian agriculture set a number of records. In that year, the indicators of the Food Security Doctrine were met in terms of self-sufficiency in grain, sugar, potatoes, and poultry meat. At the end of 2011, Russian agricultural enterprises showed more than 20% growth in production volumes.

In July 2012, the Russian government reduced funding for the state agricultural development program for 2013-2020 and brought it into line with WTO requirements. The amount of support funds related to the so-called "green box" has been increased, support from the category of the "red box" has been canceled, and money from the "yellow box" has been reduced. The "green box" includes measures aimed not at maintaining producer prices, but at improving infrastructure, scientific research, education, information and advisory services, veterinary and phytosanitary measures, dissemination of market information, maintenance of strategic food stocks, regional development programs, crop insurance , promoting agricultural restructuring, etc. The Green Box is not bound by reduction commitments. At the same time, "red and yellow baskets" imply a different degree of support for producer prices and take the product out of the competitive field. For example, according to a document approved by the government, the mechanism of discounts on fuel and lubricants for agricultural producers will be abolished, since such benefits allow WTO members to accuse Russian agricultural producers of having signs of dumping on the market.

As of mid-2012, such discounts amounted to up to 30% of the market price.

The total sown area of agricultural crops in Russia in 2010 was 75.2 million hectares, of which 43.2 million hectares were for cereals and leguminous crops, 10.9 million hectares for industrial crops, and 2.2 million hectares for potatoes. million hectares, for fodder crops - 18.1 million hectares.

Figure 2 - Export of wheat from Russia

Compared to 1999, in 2010 the total sown area of agricultural crops was 14.3% less, grain and leguminous crops - 7.1% less, industrial crops - 45.0% more, potatoes - 24.3% less %, fodder crops - less by 39.5%.

In 2009, 97.1 million tons of grain and leguminous crops, 31.1 million tons of potatoes, 24.9 million tons of sugar beet, 13.4 million tons of open and protected ground vegetables were harvested. Compared to 1999, in 2009 the harvest of cereals and leguminous crops increased by 77.7%, sugar beet - by 63.5%, potatoes - by 11.2%, open and protected ground vegetables - by 21.7%. In 2010, fees for all listed types of crops decreased.

In 2011, bumper crops were obtained for many crops: rapeseed, corn, sunflower, soybean, rice. However, the most impressive will be the sugar beet harvest. The most impressive was the harvest of sugar beet, the harvest of which (about 40 million tons) was a historical record. This raw material is enough to produce 5 million tons of sugar, which is the annual demand of the Russian market. Animal husbandry is one of the leading branches of Russian agriculture.

Figure 3 - Production of meat and meat products in Russia in 1990-2010, in %

In Russia, as in most post-Soviet countries, with the beginning of market reforms, animal husbandry suffered the most, since the fall in the purchasing power of the population was reflected primarily in meat and dairy products - the most elastic in terms of income. In addition, the efficiency of Soviet animal husbandry and the yield per unit of feed were extremely low. With the opening of the market, it became more profitable to import not fodder grain, as in Soviet times, but finished livestock products. Increased imports created competition for domestic producers, leaving them no time for a radical modernization of the sector.

In 2006, Russia adopted four priority national projects, including the National Project "Development of the Agro-Industrial Complex". One of the directions of this national project is the accelerated development of animal husbandry. The project envisaged expanding the availability of long-term (up to eight years) credit resources for the construction and modernization of livestock complexes by subsidizing the interest rate; an increase in deliveries under federal leasing of pedigree livestock, machinery and equipment for animal husbandry and a guaranteed level of foreign trade protectionism in animal husbandry.

One of the results of the implementation of the national project "Development of the Agro-Industrial Complex" was massive investment in Russian animal husbandry.

In February 2012, the head of the Ministry of Agriculture, Elena Skrynnik, stated: “Currently, livestock meat production in live weight is 2.9 million tons, milk has increased by 1.8% over 6 years and reached 31.742 million tons. At the same time, in Meat and dairy cattle breeding are undergoing qualitative changes, which just characterize a positive trend in the development of this area. First, she continued, in 2011, for the first time in 20 years, the downward trend in the number of cattle was stopped. Secondly, the share of breeding stock is growing: in the beef herd - from 41% in 2006 to 60% in 2011, in the dairy herd - from 6% to 11.3%. And, thirdly, due to a qualitative change in the composition of the livestock, the replacement of less productive breeds with more productive ones, the average milk yield increased by 20%, the marketability increased to 61%.

In the 1st quarter of 2012, the positive trend in animal husbandry, achieved in 2011, continues in Russia. Thus, from January to March 2012, milk production increased by 279 thousand tons compared to the same period in 2011 (by 4.5%) and amounted to 6 million 482 thousand tons. The number of cattle increased by 223 thousand heads, including the number of cows - by more than 195 thousand heads. Such growth in the first quarter in milk production and cattle livestock is observed for the first time in the last 22 years. Positive dynamics is also maintained in pig and poultry farming. According to the results of the first quarter, pork production increased by 4.2%, poultry - by 16.3%.

Raw material.

This is the only branch of material production that depends on natural conditions.

However, the role of this industry in the economy of different countries and regions varies greatly. The geography of agriculture is distinguished by an exceptional variety of forms of production and agrarian relations. Moreover, all its types can be combined into two groups:

Commodity agriculture - is characterized by high productivity, intensity of development, high level of specialization;
Consumer agriculture is characterized by low productivity, extensive development, lack of specialization.
The agriculture of developed countries is characterized by a sharp predominance of commercial agriculture. It develops on the basis of mechanization, chemicalization, the use of biotechnologies, and the latest breeding methods.

In animal husbandry, there are three main areas:

dairy (typical for densely populated areas,);
meat and dairy (common in and zone);
meat (dry areas and). The largest livestock of cattle is possessed by:, China,.

Pig breeding is widespread almost everywhere, regardless of natural conditions. It tends to densely populated areas, large cities. To areas of intensive potato growing. The leader in the number of pigs is China (almost half of the world's livestock), followed by the United States, Russia,.

Leadership in the production of livestock products belongs economically and is distributed as follows:

meat production - USA, China, Russia;
butter production - Russia, Germany, ;
milk production - USA, India, Russia.

The main exporters of livestock products:

Poultry meat - France, USA,;
Mutton - , ;
Pork - the Netherlands, ;
Beef - Germany, France;
Oil - the Netherlands, Germany;
Wool - Australia, .

Plant growing. Geography of major crops

Crop production is the most important branch of agriculture in the world.

It is developed almost everywhere, with the exception of, and highlands.
Due to the large variety of agricultural crops, the composition of crop production is quite complex. In stand out:

grain farming;
production of industrial crops;
vegetable growing;
gardening;
fodder production, etc.

Grain crops include wheat, rye, barley, buckwheat, oats, etc.

Leading among them are - wheat, corn and rice. Which account for 4/5 of the gross harvest of all grain. The main producers of the three main crops are:

wheat - China, USA, Russia, France, Canada, ;
rice - China, India, ;
corn - USA, Brazil, Argentina.

Among the main exporters are the USA, Canada, Australia (wheat), Thailand, USA (rice), Argentina, USA (corn). Russia also imports grain. Among other food crops stand out: oilseeds, tubers, sugar, tonic, vegetables and fruits.

Oilseeds - soybeans, sunflowers, peanuts, rapeseed, sesame, castor beans, as well as olive tree, oil and coconut palm. The main producers of oilseeds are the USA (soybeans), Russia (sunflower), China (rapeseed), Brazil (peanuts).

Tuber crops - potatoes. The largest collection of potatoes in Europe, India, China and the USA.

Saccharones - sugar cane, sugar beet. The main producers of sugar cane are Brazil, India, ; sugar beet - Ukraine, France, Russia, .

Vegetable crops. Distributed in all.

Tonic cultures - tea, coffee, cocoa.

The main exporter of tea is India, coffee - Brazil, cocoa - Côte d'Ivoire.

Fibrous crops (cotton, flax, sisal, jute), natural rubber, and tobacco stand out among the non-food crops.

The largest tobacco producer is China, India, Brazil, Cuba, and Japan produce it in much smaller volumes.

Ecological problems

The impact of agriculture on the environment is enormous. It can be attributed to:

as a result of improper agricultural practices;
pollution due to excessive use of fertilizers and pesticides;
sewage pollution from livestock farms
disturbance of the vegetation cover due to the release of the territory for agricultural land.

For millennia, people have had a great impact on the environment through the formation of anthropogenic (field and pasture) lands.

During the period of extensive development of agriculture, the main type of impact on natural biocenoses was the plowing of land and the removal of forests. A strong negative impact on nature (erosion, soil depletion) manifested itself in China as early as 11 - 111 millennia BC; The state of forests in Central Russia at the end of the 17th century was so alarming that Peter I issued a special law regulating logging. But these and many other negative impacts are not comparable with the consequences of the intensification of agriculture in the second half of the 20th century.

The misuse of intensive technologies has led to environmental degradation, land loss and water scarcity. The reduction of the arable fund (problem No. 1 in the world) is caused, firstly, by the seizure of agricultural land for urban or construction, and secondly, by the growth of processes and the loss of the humus layer of desertification and salinization of soils in areas of irrigated agriculture.

Soil erosion is a new phenomenon, as many once fertile lands began to turn with great speed. World arable land loses about 26 billion humus annually, which is associated with excessive plowing of soils that are especially susceptible to erosion - on hillsides or in a semi-arid zone, the use of heavy equipment, and changes in crop rotations.

The most effective erosion control measures have been taken since 1985 in the United States, when the US Congress passed a law on leasing from farmers and conserving eroded lands in order to turn them into forests and.

Irreparable harm to nature is caused by deforestation, which is also associated with the expansion of plowed areas and pastures. Forests in the tropics contribute to fallout and help conserve water and land, and when they are cleared, carbon dioxide content increases, which, along with intense emissions and industry, leads to global warming.

A serious danger to humanity also lies in the impoverishment of the natural gene pool. This is due to the reduction of cultivated species and varieties used in the village. X. and preferential breeding of the most productive and resistant to any negative influence of plants and animals. But the stability of natural biocenoses is primarily in their biodiversity, therefore, in some countries, gene banks are being created, where breeding of various livestock and plant species is supported.

As it turned out, one of the most dangerous impacts for the ecological balance is also related to agriculture. the introduction of new species (for example, the fauna of Australia has suffered greatly from the importation of sheep, rabbits, etc.).

It should also be noted that the active introduction into practice of the latest achievements in agricultural biotechnology - genetically modified species of plants and animals - is fraught with harm that has not yet been fully investigated and recognized by the world economic community.

The impressive successes in the development of agricultural production, achieved in the second half of the 20th century, were due to the action of a number of factors directly related to the high achievements of agricultural science and scientific and technological progress in related fields.

Mechanization, chemicalization and electrification were of decisive importance, as well as the intensification of agricultural production, the introduction of more efficient agricultural methods, new high-yielding crop varieties, more productive livestock breeds and the use of industrial production methods, in particular in the field of animal husbandry and gardening. cultures.

The transition to the machine stage of agricultural production can be compared to what happened in the world economy after the industrial revolution. Naturally, the highest results were achieved in large agricultural enterprises, where the advantages of using machines could give the highest profitability. This, in turn, led to a strong differentiation in the scale of the use of machinery and equipment in regions that differ in the degree of concentration of capital and financing of agriculture (Table 16.3).

Table 16.3

Fleet of agricultural tractors and harvesters

(million units) Region Year 1980 1990 2000 2001 1980 1990 2000 2001 2003 Tractors Combines Worldwide 21.3 26.5 26.7 26.9 3.5 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.25 Africa 0 .4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 Asia 1.2 5.6 7.5 7.6 0.9 1.5 2.1 2, 1 2.2 Europe 7.2 10.4 11.0 11.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 Oceania 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.06 0, 06 0.06 0.06 0.06 North and Central America 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 South America 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Australia 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 Source : FAOSTAT Database, 2006. http://apps.fao.org/page/collections

In 1950, about 700 million people were employed in world agriculture, less than 7 million tractors (of which 4 million in the USA, 180 thousand in the FRE, 150 thousand in France) and less than 1.5 million harvesters. harvesters. Weak change in the number of agricultural machines at the turn of the XXI century. reflects, firstly, the relative saturation of developed regions with machines and, secondly, the limited possibilities for financing agriculture in poor regions. Differences in the number of machines used in Europe and North America are explained by the peculiarities of land ownership: farms in Europe, as a rule, are much smaller than American ones, and therefore less powerful machines are used on them. But in general, the capacity of agricultural machinery has steadily increased. In the 1950s, tractors with a power of 10-30 hp were mainly used, on which one worker could cultivate 15-20 hectares. In recent decades, the power of tractors has steadily increased, if the area of agricultural land allowed it, and the largest farms now use tractors with a power of over 120 hp, on which one worker can handle up to 200 hectares. At the same time, where farm areas are small (in Europe, an average of 12 hectares, versus tens and hundreds, up to thousands of hectares in North America, Australia and New Zealand), small tractors are still predominantly used.

Mechanization not only extended to the area of field work, but affected all aspects of agricultural activity. For example, the fleet of milking machines in the world now amounts to 200,000. If in 1950 one worker milked 12 cows twice a day, at present, modern equipment allows him to serve up to 100 cows. Similar changes have taken place in other types of agricultural work.

The widespread introduction of all kinds of technology made it possible to sharply increase the productivity of those employed in agriculture, although at the same time it required higher expenditures of electricity and mineral fuel. As a result, by the end of the 1970s, the power and electrical equipment of an agricultural worker exceeded those of an industrial worker. This meant that agriculture switched over to an industrial mode of production. Of course, the above applies only to large farms in developed countries, but they are the most profitable and productive.

Another direction of mechanization was the universalization of replaceable equipment. One tractor with the help of various mounted and trailed implements could perform a variety of functions. Equipment for the primary processing of the resulting crop was also improved: drying, preparation for storage, transportation, etc. All this increased the energy intensity of farms.

Chemicalization of agriculture is another important factor in improving agricultural production. Among the many uses of chemicals in agriculture, two have the greatest scope and effectiveness: the use of fertilizers and chemical plant protection products to increase crop yields and productivity while improving agricultural practices.

The scale of the use of mineral fertilizers can be judged from the data of their production, which has stabilized in recent years.

It should be noted that now about 8 times more mineral fertilizers are applied to the soil than in 1950.

The use of mineral and organic fertilizers, combined with the development of new varieties of plants that could most effectively respond to them, made it possible to seriously increase the yield of many crops. But the possibilities of their application are limited, since excessive fertilization of the soil can cause serious damage not only to yields, but even more to the quality of products. Thus, excessive nitrate content leads to rapid deterioration of vegetables during storage and is harmful to human health.

Significant damage to agriculture is caused by all kinds of pests: insects, fungi, caterpillars, weeds, etc., which can sometimes destroy the crop in a short time.

To combat them, chemical plant protection products have been developed, which, as a rule, have a specific focus on a certain type of pests. So, fungicides are used against fungal diseases, insecticides - to control insect pests, etc. In developed countries, large-scale production of chemical plant protection products has long been established, and their annual exports in recent years have exceeded $ 11 billion. Over the past 50 years, dozens and hundreds of different ingredients have been developed for chemical protection products. Despite the fact that the development was carried out under careful control and with the necessary precautions, their use, especially in violation of the rules, can sometimes lead to serious damage to the environment and human health.

The development of various equipment and chemicals for servicing agriculture and for processing its products, as well as breeding work to develop new varieties of plants and livestock breeds, required the creation of a scientific base and significant R&D costs. During the second half of the XX century. financing of R&D in the agriculture of developed countries was carried out with the active assistance of the state. This was due to the strategic importance of the industry and the desire to ensure the food security of countries.

By the end of the past century, priorities in the field of financing R&D in the agro-industrial complex began to change gradually. Developed countries have already achieved food security and have begun to reduce funding for this type of work, increasingly leaving this field of activity to the private sector. But there was also a reassessment of priorities - the share of financing directly to agriculture began to decrease, while the share of developments in the sectors of its service and processing of its products increased. However, the growth rate of R&D spending continues to be significantly higher than the growth rate of agricultural production. These types of scientific work are most developed in the USA, England, Holland, Australia, and New Zealand, in which a great deal of attention has traditionally been paid to agricultural problems. According to some estimates, private investment in these countries reaches half of all funding for these purposes and in the mid-90s was estimated at about $7 billion.

Conducting a wide front of R&D, in contrast to previous periods of agricultural development, when any one innovation was introduced and distributed, made it possible to achieve amazing results over a historically short period (10-20 years). In crop production, breeders have bred new varieties and hybrids that are distinguished by high yields and other useful properties, livestock breeders have bred new, more productive breeds of livestock.

An example of increased yields is the United Kingdom, where the average wheat yield was increased to 70 c/ha. In the early 1950s, the yields of major crops in most countries were the same as at the beginning of the century. By the end of the century, it was increased by 3-4 times, and in the most developed countries on advanced farms it increased even more: for example, for wheat - up to 100 centners per hectare, or 5-10 times. The productivity of animal husbandry was increased on approximately the same scale, in particular, milk yield increased from 2,000 to 10,000 liters per year.

The intensification of agricultural production under the influence of scientific and technical progress, called the "green revolution", at the same time meant a sharp increase in the capital intensity of agricultural farms, comparable per worker with specific capital investments in modern industry. It is the need for very large financial outlays that has become the main obstacle to the widespread introduction of the achievements of the "green revolution" in the agriculture of developing countries.

Another important circumstance hindering the use of these advances is the need for highly qualified specialists capable of competently using machinery, fertilizers, and chemical protection agents. Suffice it to say that in some developed countries it is established by law that only persons with a special higher agricultural education can be farmers.

Along with the achievements, the negative aspects of the "green revolution" gradually began to appear. Some of them were associated with the destruction of ecosystems that have developed over millennia, the erosion of fertile soil, the negative consequences of the rapid development of irrigated agriculture, as well as the disappearance of many plant and living organisms. But the main negative consequence was the appearance in the products of both crop production and animal husbandry of an increased content of chemical compounds, antibiotics, hormones, etc., which is extremely harmful to human health. In addition, it turned out that excessive enthusiasm for innovations in agricultural scientific and technical progress in some cases led to an unjustified rise in the cost of products: in the process of production and subsequent sorting, processing, storage and transportation of food, an excessive amount of energy was expended, and by the time it reached the consumer, it turned out that that the production of one calorie of food consumes 5-7 calories of fuel and energy.

The impressive successes in the development of agricultural production achieved in the second half of the 20th century were due to the action of a number of factors directly related to the high achievements of agricultural science and scientific and technological progress in related fields. Of decisive importance were mechanization, chemicalization and electrification, as well as the intensification of agricultural production, the introduction of more efficient agricultural methods, new high-yielding crop varieties, more productive livestock breeds and the use of industrial production methods, in particular in the field of animal husbandry and horticultural crops. Irrigated agriculture expanded quite impressively - from 80 million hectares in 1950 to 273 million hectares in 2001, more than one-third of which was in Asian countries.

In 1950, about 700 million people were employed in world agriculture, less than 7 million tractors (of which 4 million in the USA, 180 thousand in Germany, 150 thousand in France) and less than 1.5 million harvesters. Weak change in the number of agricultural machines at the turn of the XXI century. reflects, firstly, the relative saturation of developed regions with machines and, secondly, the limited possibilities for financing agriculture in poor regions. Differences in the number of used equipment in Europe and North America are explained by the peculiarities of land ownership: farms in Europe, as a rule, are much smaller than American farms, and therefore less powerful equipment is used on them. But in general, the capacity of agricultural machinery has steadily increased. In the 1950s, tractors with a capacity of 10-30 hp were used mainly, on which one worker could cultivate 15-20 hectares. In recent decades, the power of tractors has steadily increased, if the area of agricultural land allowed it, and the largest farms now use tractors with a power of over 120 hp, on which one worker can handle up to 200 hectares. At the same time, where farm areas are small (in Europe, an average of 12 hectares, versus tens and hundreds, up to thousands of hectares in North America, Australia and New Zealand), small tractors are still predominantly used.

Mechanization not only extended to the area of field work, but affected all aspects of agricultural activity. For example, steam "to milking units now amounts to 200 thousand in the world. If in 1950 one worker milked 12 cows twice a day, now modern equipment allows him to serve up to 100 cows. Similar changes have occurred in other types of agricultural works.

The widespread introduction of all kinds of technology made it possible to sharply increase the productivity of those employed in agriculture, although at the same time it required higher expenditures of electricity and mineral fuel. As a result, by the end of the 1970s, the power supply and electric supply of the agricultural worker exceeded those of the industrial worker. This meant that agriculture switched to an industrial mode of production. Of course, the above applies only to large farms in developed countries, but they are the most profitable and productive.

Another direction of mechanization was the universalization of the equipment used. One tractor with the help of various mounted and trailed implements could perform a variety of functions. Equipment for the primary processing of the resulting crop was also improved: drying, preparation for storage, transportation, etc. All this increased the energy intensity of farms.

Chemicalization of agriculture is another important factor in improving agricultural production. Among the many uses of chemicals in agriculture, two are the most widespread and effective: the use of fertilizers and crop protection chemicals to increase crop yields and productivity while improving agricultural practices.

The scale of the use of mineral fertilizers can be judged from the data on their production (Table 15.5), which has stabilized in recent years. It should be noted that now about 8 times more mineral fertilizers are applied to the soil than in 1950.

The use of mineral and organic fertilizers, combined with the development of new varieties of plants that could most effectively respond to them, made it possible to seriously increase the yield of many crops. But the possibilities of their application are limited, since excessive fertilization of the soil can cause serious damage not only to productivity, but even more to the quality of products. Thus, excessive nitrate content leads to rapid deterioration of vegetables during storage and is harmful to human health.

Significant damage to agriculture is caused by all kinds of pests: insects, fungi, caterpillars, weeds, etc., which can sometimes destroy the crop in a short time. To combat them, chemical plant protection products have been developed, which, as a rule, have a specific focus on a certain type of pests. So, fungicides are used against fungal diseases, insecticides - to control insect pests, etc. In developed countries, large-scale production of chemical plant protection products has long been established, and their annual exports in recent years have exceeded $ 11 billion. Over the past 50 years, dozens and hundreds of different ingredients have been developed for chemical protection products. Despite the fact that the development was carried out under careful control and with the necessary precautions, their use, especially in violation of the rules, can sometimes lead to serious damage to the environment and human health.

The development of various equipment and chemicals for the maintenance of agriculture and for the processing of its products, as well as breeding work to develop new plant varieties and livestock breeds, required the creation of a scientific base and significant R&D costs. During the second half of the XX century. financing of R&D in agriculture in developed countries was carried out with the active assistance of the state. This was due to the strategic importance of the industry and the desire to ensure the food security of countries.

By the end of the past century, priorities in the field of financing R&D in the agro-industrial complex began to change gradually. Industrialized countries have already achieved food security and have begun to reduce funding for this type of work, increasingly leaving this field of activity to the private sector. But even there a reassessment of priorities took place - the share of financing directly for agriculture began to decrease, while the share of developments in the sectors of its service and processing of its products increased. But the growth rate of R&D spending continues to be much higher than the growth rate of agricultural production. These types of scientific work are most developed in the USA, England, Holland, Australia and New Zealand, in which much attention has traditionally been paid to agricultural problems. According to some estimates, private investment in these countries reaches half of all funding for these purposes and in the mid-90s was estimated at about $7 billion.

An example of an increase in yields is the United Kingdom, where the average wheat yield was increased to 70 centners per hectare. In the early 1950s, the yields of major crops in most countries were the same as at the beginning of the century. By the end of the century, it had increased 3-4 times, and in the most developed countries on advanced farms it increased even more: for example, for wheat - up to 100 centners per hectare, or 5-10 times. Approximately on the same scale, the productivity of animal husbandry was increased, in particular, milk yield increased from 2,000 to 10,000 liters per year.

The intensification of agricultural production under the influence of scientific and technical progress, called the "green revolution", at the same time meant a sharp increase in the capital intensity of agricultural farms, comparable per worker with specific capital investments in modern industry. It is the need for very large financial outlays that has become the main obstacle to the widespread introduction of the achievements of the Green Revolution in the agriculture of developing countries.

Another important circumstance hindering the use of these achievements is the need for highly qualified specialists capable of competently using machinery, fertilizers and chemical protection agents. It is enough to take revenge that in some developed countries it is established by law that only persons with a special higher agricultural education can be farmers.

Along with the achievements, the negative aspects of the "green revolution" gradually began to appear. Some of them were associated with the destruction of ecosystems that have developed over thousands of years, the erosion of fertile soil, the negative consequences of the rapid development of irrigated agriculture, as well as the disappearance of many plant and living organisms. But the main negative consequence was the appearance in the products of both crop production and animal husbandry of an increased content of chemical compounds, antibiotics, hormones, etc., which is extremely harmful to human health. In addition, it turned out that excessive enthusiasm for innovations in agricultural scientific and technical progress in some cases led to an unjustified rise in the cost of products: an excessive amount of energy was expended in the production process and subsequent sorting, processing, storage and transportation of food, and by the time it reached the consumer, it turned out that 5-7 calories of fuel and energy are spent on the production of one calorie of food.

These and some other undesirable consequences of the "Green Revolution" and the increased sensitivity of new varieties of agricultural crops and livestock breeds to pests and diseases (for example, potatoes to the Colorado potato beetle, or periodically occurring epizootics such as foot-and-mouth disease, "mad cow disease", bird flu, etc. ., leading to the mass destruction of a huge number of animals and birds) formed a critical attitude towards modern agricultural production among a part of society. At the same time, new directions in agriculture appeared and began to develop.

15.3. The latest trends in agriculture

In the 90s of the XX century. two new directions in modern agricultural production are developing, although the prerequisites for their emergence were formed earlier. One of them was due to the expansion of demand for environmentally friendly products, i.e. produced without the use of chemicals, hormones, antibiotics, growth stimulants, etc. funds created as a result of the rapid development of scientific and technological progress. In essence, this was to a large extent a return to the former agriculture, but on a new qualitative basis, with the use of modern agricultural technologies, new varieties of crops and livestock breeds. The production of such products was carried out earlier, but on a small scale. With the chemicalization of agriculture and the growth in the use of medicines, vaccines and other drugs, a negative attitude towards products in which undesirable components were found began to grow in society. This finally took shape in the 1990s, when the demand for pure bioproducts became massive. Accordingly, the production of organic, as it began to be called, products began to receive state support and regulation in the countries of Western Europe, North America and Japan.

At the same time, national and international organizations of consumers of such products, as well as scientific centers engaged in the study of various problems associated with organic agricultural technologies, began to be created. Gradually, work was being established to determine the requirements for the quality of bioproducts, their certification, methods of their production, etc. Thus, in 1999, the list of permitted and prohibited substances and agents developed by the Codex Alimentarius Commission (CAC) was agreed upon and adopted. The activities of the international non-governmental organization International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movement (IFOAM) are also widely known.

Organic agricultural production has higher labor costs than modern one. Yields and productivity are lower, which leads to significantly higher prices for organic products. Therefore, the demand for such products is expanding mainly in the richest countries. According to 2000 data, 11 thousand farms with a total area of 3 million hectares were engaged in organic agro-production in Europe, i.e. 1.8% agricultural area. Sales volume may in the near future amount to 5 to 10% of the European market. The growth rates of production and sales are very high: from 5-10% in Germany to 30-^0% in Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland.

The most strongly developed production and consumption of organic products in Europe is in Switzerland, Italy, Germany, England, Austria, France, the Scandinavian countries and the Czech Republic. The volume of retail trade in bioproducts in 2000 in Europe amounted to 20 billion dollars, but its share in total food sales is still small and in most countries ranges from 1 to 4%. The highest share of such sales is in Switzerland (4%) and Denmark (4.5%). Italy, Spain and Greece are mainly focused on the development of bioproduct exports. In the USA, Canada and Mexico, the production of organic products in 2000 was estimated at 10-12 billion dollars. It is developing very well in Australia, where the area under them has reached 1.7 million hectares, and in Asia, with the exception of Japan, it is still poorly developed.

The governments of a number of countries provide support to farmers switching to organic production, up to direct subsidies. Part of the funds for these purposes comes from EU funds. The amount of subsidies depends on the type of activity. For example, in Austria they range from 218 euros per hectare for pastures, 327 euros for arable land to 727 euros for land under vineyards and vegetables. Active state support for biofarmers, who will, of course, produce less products, is largely due to the fact that developed countries have long solved the problem of ensuring their food security.

The production of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) is the second, rapidly developing in recent years, a new direction in modern agriculture. It was the result of the successful development at the end of the last century of "genetic engineering", which allows, by transplanting individual genes (plants, fish, molluscs, animals, and even humans) into the genome of plants or animals, to obtain new organisms with predetermined properties. For the first time, transgenic products were produced in 1983, when pest-resistant tobacco was obtained in the USA. Later, genetically modified tomatoes, soybeans, corn, cucumbers, cotton, rapeseed, potatoes, flax, gourds were obtained. papaya, etc. GMOs first entered the open market in 1994, when GM tomatoes began to be sold in the United States, capable of being stored for a long time under normal conditions.

In the last 10 years, the pace of distribution of transgenic products has been exceptionally high. The area under plantings of modified crops increased 34 times over the seven years of commercial implementation and in 2002 amounted to 58.7 million hectares. The leading countries producing GMOs in 2002 were the USA, Argentina, Canada and China. They accounted for 99% of the world's GMO production. In recent years, they have been produced in increasing volumes in Australia, South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine and in a large number of developing countries.

Basically, GMOs receive such new properties as resistance to herbicides, viruses, insects, as well as improving quality characteristics, preventing spoilage during storage and transportation, creating food products with predetermined properties, etc. They enter the market, including foreign trade, either in their natural form (fruits, vegetables, etc.), or in the form of various feeds and additives to manufactured products. So, they get into dairy and meat products as part of feed or ingredients (soy) in sausages. Genetically modified seeds are entering the world market in increasing quantities, the export of which in 2000 reached 3 billion dollars.

Attitude towards GMOs is ambiguous. In the US, Japan, developing countries, it is mostly positive. However, in Europe, from the very beginning to the present, there have been discussions about the possible undesirable consequences of the use of GMOs, both for people and for the environment. GMO production can somewhat reduce farmers' costs of pesticides, fertilizers, and increase yields through resistance to pests or adverse environmental conditions. But information about economic efficiency is scattered and contradictory. It is believed that the cultivation of GMOs can increase yields or reduce costs by 10-20%. But what the consequences may be, including for subsequent generations, is still unknown.

In recent years, many conferences, symposiums and other forums have taken place, where the problems of transgenesis have been discussed. For example, in 1993 the Convention on Biological Diversity was signed, but a number of important countries did not accede to it. As a follow-up to this Convention, in January 2000, the Cartagena Protocol on Biological Safety was approved by 130 countries, containing the main provisions regarding the possible impact of living modified organisms on the environment, but it has not yet entered into force, since the missing number of countries have ratified it.

In Europe, especially in the EU, there is strong opposition to the import and production of GMOs. In a number of countries, labeling on the content of GMOs in products is mandatory. Since July 2004, such labeling has been mandatory in Russia if the content of GMOs exceeds 0.9%.

Forms of ownership in the agro-industrial complex

Due to the specifics of the agro-industrial complex of the world economy, it includes all known forms of ownership from subsistence and small-scale farming to transnational corporations. In the last few decades, several trends have been clearly defined in the structure of the agro-industrial complex, indicating an increase in the social, economic, and in some respects, political significance of the problem of ensuring food security at the national and global levels. But in the three main divisions of the agro-industrial complex - providing for the needs of agriculture, production itself and in the processing segment - specific features of the corporate structure have historically developed.

The supply of the agricultural producer with everything necessary has long been carried out by large machine-building and chemical companies, which have divided the main sales markets among themselves. Small and medium-sized businesses are represented here mainly by firms that have strong partnerships, in particular on the basis of subcontracts with large concerns. The number of independent firms is relatively small and is mostly represented by small wholesalers and other intermediaries.

The processes of concentration and centralization of production and capital were concentrated directly in the sphere of agricultural production. Tough competition between producers of agricultural products has led to several directions in the forms of concentration of production. Where the size of the farms was quite large - in North America, Australia, a number of European countries - the processes of consolidation of large farms with great opportunities in the field of financing, and the bankruptcy of small farms on a massive scale, prevailed. As a result, in the US and UK, about 10% of large farms account for half of the marketable output, while half of the small farms will provide only 10% of the products entering the market.

In those countries where relatively small farms predominate, the cooperative movement has developed in various forms - production, joint purchase and operation of agricultural machinery, the creation of processing enterprises, the purchase of seeds and chemicals, the marketing of products, etc. Typical examples here can be France and a number of Mediterranean countries.

In the field of processing agricultural raw materials, a more variegated picture is observed. Enterprises of various sizes are widely represented here - from small family-owned enterprises producing, for example, cheese, wine, to TNCs and agro-industrial associations that have various forms of cooperation in joint activities.

In developing countries today one can meet all forms of agricultural activity due to the diversity of their economies - from patriarchal-communal agriculture to modern forms of a capitalist nature, plantation farms, public sector enterprises, depending on the degree of economic development of the country. The processes of concentration of agriculture in the world economy were largely due to the "green revolution", which made increased demands on the capital intensity of agricultural production.

Transnational corporations (TNCs) began to penetrate into agribusiness relatively long ago. Initially, communication was carried out through trading and intermediary firms and trading departments of concerns. But gradually, TNCs began to show an increasing interest in establishing strong ties, up to mergers with direct agricultural producers. These processes especially accelerated at the end of the 20th century. At the same time, chemical corporations, interested in establishing science-based rational norms and methods for using their products, began to increasingly establish strong ties with farmers, including by securing strong markets for their products.

The greatest interest in penetrating into agricultural production arose in food industry corporations, which were interested in the constancy of the quality and delivery time of raw materials. Initially, a contracting system was widely used, in which the farmer, even before receiving the harvest, entered into a contract for the supply of all the products that he would receive, with a guarantee of a certain price level. Later, ties began to become stronger and turn into vertically integrated systems, often with direct support and assistance from the state, up to subsidizing agricultural production in areas with unfavorable social or natural conditions. In addition, the state usually finances the creation of infrastructure: roads, power supply, etc.

Vertically integrated corporations are increasingly involving in their system all links in the technological chain of production, processing, storage, transportation and marketing of products. They also extend their activities to the territories of developing countries, especially in cases of organizing the production of organic and GM products.

As for Russia, the structure of its agro-industrial complex differs significantly from similar indicators in industrialized countries, which is a consequence of the long neglect of the problems of civilian industries in the Soviet era and the ill-conceived reforms, the collapse of many collective farms and the orientation towards the accelerated development of farms in the absence of proper financial support. and material and technical resources in the 90s.

The main link in the agro-industrial complex of Russia is directly agricultural production, which accounts for 48% of the volume of agro-industrial complex production, 68% of fixed production assets and about the same number of people employed in the entire agro-industrial complex. In developed countries, the proportions are directly opposite: the share of agriculture is only 2% of GDP, while the share of the agro-industrial complex is determined at 20-25%, i.e. about 10% of the GDP of the agro-industrial complex remains on the agribusiness itself. Weak development of the resource base and processing industries led to low productivity of Russian agriculture and very large losses - up to 30% of grain and 40-45% of vegetables and potatoes. In addition, the situation in the 1990s led to a sharp reduction in the sown area and gross harvest of many crops and livestock products (almost 2 times for meat, 35% for dairy products, and 2 times for grain in 1999). times, etc.). A small increase in production in the last 2-3 years has not been able to compensate for this decline in any significant way.

In 2002, Russia produced about 87 million tons of cereals (in 1998 - 48 million tons), 38 million tons of potatoes (in 1998 - 31 million tons), 13 million tons of vegetables, 16 million tons of sugar beets, 0 .4 million tons of soybeans, 4.7 million tons of meat, including poultry, in slaughter weight, and 33 million tons of dairy products. Food imports in 2002 amounted to $11 billion, or about 74% of total imports. The average grain yield was 20 centners per hectare, corn for grain - 28.5 centners per hectare, milk yield per cow - 2.8 thousand liters per year.

The development of agriculture today occupies one of the leading positions in the economy. Even during the crisis of 2015, agriculture continued to successfully grow and develop. This is evidenced by the growing figures - 2.9% compared to 2014. Nevertheless, this article will focus not only on the prospects for the development of agriculture, but also on the problems associated with this sector of the economy.

The current state and prospects for the development of agriculture in Russia

Despite the fact that the development of agriculture in the 1990s. cannot boast of great achievements, in the 2000s. the situation has changed radically since the successful policy in this area was resumed. This is due to state support and the introduction of a system of agricultural insurance and lending, which led to an improvement in the prospects for the development of agriculture.

2015 not only brought agriculture back to its feet, but also became an indicator of successful state policy, the results of which exceeded expectations: the agricultural productivity index in all categories amounted to 103%. In total, 104.8 million tons of grain were harvested, which is 5% higher than the expected outcome of the State Program for the Development of Agriculture. Poultry and cattle breeding reached 13.5 million tons, which is 4.2% more than in 2014. At the same time, egg production improved by 1.6%.

In 2014, agricultural products were imported in the amount of 39.9 billion dollars, in 2015 - by 26.5 billion. At the end of the year, imports of fresh and frozen meat decreased by 30%, fish - by 44%, and cheese and cottage cheese - by 36.5%. Basically, agricultural products were imported from non-CIS countries and the CIS.

Also in 2015, indicators of agricultural exports increased due to the improvement in the prospects for the development of agriculture in Russia. Thus, the export of pork and poultry increased by 20%. Export indicators of sunflower oil and wheat have improved. Again, cooperation went on, for the most part, with far-abroad countries and the CIS.

Today, the prospects for the development of agriculture in Russia continue to grow. In this regard, exports are supported by the institutions EXIAR, ROSEXIMBANK, Russian Export Center, etc. At the end of 2016, the most popular exported agricultural products were:

pork and poultry meat;
grain (wheat and barley);
fresh and frozen fish, seafood;
vegetable oil of different categories.

The main trend in the development of agriculture in Russia is the modernization of agricultural equipment. Due to the devaluation of the ruble and higher prices for imported equipment, by the end of 2017, a slight decrease in the pace of modernization is expected. State support in the form of subsidies for the production of agricultural products is an equally important prospect for the development of agriculture in Russia. At the same time, greenhouse vegetable growing, pig breeding, development of the parent stock, seed production, etc. will be involved.

State payments also attract very large investors to the agricultural market, who can also help develop agriculture. But even in the process of subsidizing, a lot of new problems have arisen, one of which is the uneven distribution of funds. For example, a sufficient number of subsidies are allocated for the development of the livestock sector, but payments for fodder production are insignificant, which causes an imbalance. Agricultural producers also complain about the lack of funds for the modernization and reconstruction of storage facilities and greenhouses.

The issuance of loans by the state for the development of agriculture is also growing. Thus, in 2015, the state allocated 263 billion rubles for the development of agricultural production. By May 2016, this amount of loans had doubled compared to May 2015.

However, official statistics do not give a complete picture of the prospects for the development of agriculture in Russia. In fact, there are a lot of unresolved issues. Lending services concern only large agro-industrial complexes, while small agricultural lands suffer from a lack of financial resources due to a highly developed system of bureaucratization and other problems. In order to receive state support, small agricultural enterprises need to collect a lot of certificates, conduct a huge number of examinations, and face hidden conditions that are not mentioned in official documents.

Despite the mass of unresolved problems related to the prospects for the development of agriculture, this branch of the state economy continues to develop successfully. Production figures are on the rise. However, in 2017, there is a high probability of a strong difference between supply and demand. In almost every market area in 2017, there is a drop in demand due to the unstable financial situation in the country. This fact may adversely affect the prospects for the development of agriculture and not only.

Problems and prospects of agriculture in the world

Before proceeding to the consideration of the problems and prospects of agriculture in the world, we will analyze its general characteristics at this stage of market relations between countries.

Scientific advances (breeding, breeding of new hybrid varieties of cereals) in the field of agricultural development provide an improvement in agricultural productivity in many countries. This fact was facilitated by the so-called "green revolution": the massive use of fertilizers, an increase in the scale of irrigation work, increased mechanization, etc. However, this affected only a small part of the countries that participated in the "green revolution".

The main reason for the difficulties that have arisen in the field of agricultural development lies in the backwardness of their agrarian relations. For example, in Latin America, the so-called latifundia, which are huge agricultural estates, are widely developed. And in Asia and Africa, in addition to large agricultural areas of local and foreign capital, feudal and semi-feudal possessions are still popular. The development of agriculture in these countries is hampered by the vestiges of the past associated with communal land ownership.

The motley and backward nature of agrarian relations is combined with survivals in the sphere of social organization, as well as the presence of active tribal and intertribal relations, the huge popularity of animism and faith of a different nature. When considering the prospects for the development of agriculture, it is important to pay attention to the socio-psychological aspects of the people, which include the consumer mentality. Among other things, the history of local peoples who had colonies in the past also has a huge impact.

All things considered, the agriculture of many developing countries cannot meet their food needs. In this regard, today there are a huge number of people living in these territories and suffering from hunger.

Even though hunger is gradually eradicated, the number of people in need of food is still huge and reaches the 1 billion mark. Every year in developing countries, about 20 million people die from lack of food. And this is another problem of agricultural development.

The prospects for the development of agriculture in a number of developing countries are also unsatisfactory because many traditional dishes have a low calorie content and an acute shortage of proteins and fats. This fact negatively affects the physical endurance of people living in the countries of South and East Asia.

The difficult situation with the development of agriculture and difficulties in providing food determine the problem of food security for many developing countries. We are talking about getting enough food, which is important for ensuring the normal functioning of a person. UN FAO specialists have set a food security threshold, which is 17% of the world's consumption of stocks of the last harvest, which is 2 months of food supply.

At the same time, UN experts found that in most of the developing countries there are a huge number of people suffering from a lack of vital resources, which also became a consequence of the problems of agricultural development. Food insecurity was observed in 24 countries at once, with 22 states located in Africa. In connection with the emerging critical living conditions, a number of measures were taken to eliminate food problems. We are talking about food aid: donation and provision of resources on preferential terms of credit.

Food donations are made, for the most part, in relation to the states of Africa, Asia and Latin America. The first place in the supply is occupied by the United States. In recent years, the role of the EU states that donate food to the countries of Asia and Africa has strengthened.

Prospects for the development of agriculture at the international level

Above, we talked about the fact that much more food is being produced today compared to previous years. However, the number of hungry people still leaves much to be desired. The population is busy with the problem of developing agriculture for the benefit of providing food to all those in need. So, for example, if we pay attention to the volume of food in the United States, we can conclude that by 2030 there will be enough food supplies for only 2.5 billion people, although the population of the planet at that time will be approximately 8.9 billion. food at the beginning of the 21st century, it turns out that by 2030 we will fall to the level of India, which is 450 g of grain per person daily. In turn, this problem of agricultural development will cause numerous wars.

Under no circumstances should the process of agricultural development be left to chance through production, consumption and redistribution. It is important to develop a plan for the prospects for the development of agriculture at the international level. In this case, you can rely on 4 directions.

1. Expansion of the land fund

Today, approximately 0.34 hectares of land per 1 person is allocated for agricultural land. In theory, the area can expand significantly to 4.69 hectares per person. Given this fact, you involuntarily think about the problems of agricultural development in the world, because the planet's land reserve allows you to expand the plots. However, it is worth considering the fact that not every soil is suitable for the development of agriculture. In addition, to expand the farm holdings, you will need a huge amount of money.

2. Improving the efficiency of agricultural production

Ultimately, it is this option that gains the most weight: improving the financial stability of the economy by increasing the efficiency of agricultural production. Experts in the field of agricultural development considered that with the use of the latest technologies in the agricultural sector at the present stage, at least 12 billion people could be easily provided with food. In addition, technological progress does not stand still and continues to develop even now. Therefore, the prospects for the development of agriculture would constantly grow for the better, and not only due to biotechnology, but also thanks to the successes of geneticists.

3. Social empowerment

However, the real way to improve the prospects for the development of agriculture follows from the consideration of the social opportunities of citizens. This is another direction of the strategic plan for the development of agriculture. The goal at this stage is the implementation of global agricultural reforms in developing countries, based on the characteristics of each country. The result should be the overcoming of the backwardness of the existing agrarian structures. During reforms, it is important to pay special attention to such problems of agricultural development in developing countries as troubleshooting due to the widespread participation of primitive communal relations in many African states, latifundism in Latin America, and the spread of fragmented small-peasant holdings in Asia.

During agricultural reforms, it is best to rely on the already existing experience of developed countries. For example, to increase the role of the government in the development of agriculture through the issuance of subsidies for the replacement of old equipment with new ones, as well as in the field of financial support for small and medium-sized agricultural businesses. It is important to give a special place to the solution of issues related to voluntary cooperation, an abundance of forms and financial incentives for players.

The next task of carrying out social reform with the growth of financial efficiency is to reduce the gap at the consumer level between different groups of states.

Undoubtedly, the improvement of government activity also applies to the reproduction zone, whose rise can be more controlled with the use of effective means.

4. International cooperation

In the end, the fourth stage of the strategic plan to improve the prospects for agricultural development may well be international cooperation, as well as assistance from developed countries to developing countries. The mission of such a project is, firstly, to overcome food shortages, and secondly, to identify the internal potential of developing countries. To reveal the entire hidden reserve, it is necessary to solve problems in all directions: the economy, education, health care, etc.

Prospects for the development of agriculture in the world in the long term

The OECD and FAO are engaged in assessing the prospects for the development of agriculture in the world. Their forecasts are calculated for 10 years ahead. Thus, one can learn about the development of agriculture in the world in the long term, but only taking into account the modern agricultural industry.

According to the analyzed data, it was possible to establish several ways for the development of agriculture in the world economy at once. 4 hypotheses became prerequisites.

The sown area under the main agricultural crops (wheat, corn, rice) will not decrease, but will even increase. Food crisis 2007-2009 made it possible to draw this conclusion. If a number of measures are not taken, then we are threatened with a repeated crisis phenomenon of the past years.
In all countries, more and more resources will be spent on the introduction of the achievements of scientific and technological progress in agriculture. This fact will positively affect the use of the benefits of nature. We are talking primarily about water and land resources.
Developing countries in many regions will increase their protein intake at the expense of meat and dairy products. Hence the popularization of growing plants for the purpose of their further use for animal feed.
In most countries, the trend will continue to use agricultural resources primarily for food purposes. States with special natural and political conditions that make it possible to competently use the benefits of the earth to create biofuels will remain on the sidelines. We are talking about the United States, Brazil, as well as some states of Southeast Asia.

According to forecasts for 2020, wheat production will improve significantly - up to 806 million tons, which will be an increase of 18% by 2008, by 2050 the wheat harvest will reach 950 million tons (an increase of 40% compared to 2008) . However, do not forget that the population of the planet is constantly growing and by this time will increase by 30-35%. Hence the improvement in the per capita supply of wheat.

Since wheat is actively used in animal husbandry, in developing countries, an increase in imports of these grains from 24-26% to 30% is possible. Moreover, faster growth rates are expected in less developed countries. This prospect of agricultural development in less developed countries guarantees a reduction in the share of imports from 60% to 50%. But even this indicator cannot be considered successful. In any case, the help of developed countries will be needed so that less developed countries can rise to a higher level in agricultural production.

There are also reports on forecasts of prospects for the development of agriculture in the meat and dairy industries. It turned out that the pace of milk production is developing much faster than the population of the planet is increasing. This may lead to the fact that by 2050 the volume of milk produced will be 1222 million tons, which is 80% more than in 2008.

It is developing countries that play a huge role in this process, since, based on the forecasts received, milk production in these countries will increase by 2.25 times. But even these data cannot hide the fact that the difference in the volume of milk produced in developing and developed countries will be huge. There is a possibility of a decrease in the number of cows in a number of developing countries with their increased productivity. Such a step will help to get rid of two problems of agricultural development at once: to increase the production of plant products and to increase the amount of milk protein in the food menu of the poor part of the population.

However, the problem of the development of agriculture in the meat industry still remains unresolved, because the nutrition of the world's population largely depends on it.

According to the predicted data, improvements are expected in the meat industry by 2050: the production and consumption of beef will increase by 60%, pork - by 77%, poultry meat - by 2.15 times. At the same time, the difference between the growth rates of the meat industry and the demographic situation on the planet will again remain. If developing countries begin to promote their own meat product in the domestic market, then they will be able to increase efficiency in this area of agricultural development. In less developed countries, it should be expected that most of the beef and pork will be obtained by the population through domestic production, but 40% of poultry meat will be satisfied by imports.

Thus, based on the above data, we can conclude that by improving the efficiency of agricultural production with the replacement of old equipment with innovative technologies that can significantly save resources, it is quite possible to improve the prospects for the development of agriculture in the world with a program for 40 years. It remains to solve one more problem of the development of agriculture in the world, connected with hunger.

When forecasting food consumption, the calculation is carried out per capita of the planet and is constantly growing. But over time, growth will decrease significantly. Between 1970 and 2000 there was an increase in food consumption per capita per day of 16%. Estimated data for the period from 2001 to 2030. food costs will increase to 2950 kcal. However, this is only a 9% increase over 30 years.

By 2050, consumption is expected to increase to 3130 kcal per capita, and the increase will be 3% over 20 years. These data take into account the fact that food consumption in developing countries will grow much faster than in developed countries. In this regard, there is a high probability of equalizing the indicators of food consumption in developed and developing countries, which also improves the prospects for the development of agriculture at the global level.

Today, only half of the world's population can afford good nutrition. Literally 30 years ago, the situation was different: only 4% were included in the circle of “fully secured”. By 2050, about 90% of the world's population will freely receive 2,700 kilocalories per capita per day.

All these achievements make up the prospects for the development of agriculture in the world in the long term and depend on a number of innovative changes in the agricultural sector of the economy.

Prospects for the development of agriculture in Russia

1. Import substitution in agriculture

Import substitution today helps to solve a lot of problems in the development of agriculture in Russia. It's no secret that in 2014 Russia came under the "distribution" of sanctions by European countries, the United States, Canada, Australia and Japan. As a result, the Government of the Russian Federation has taken a number of measures, banning the import of a certain list of food products, for the most part we are talking about agricultural products.

Thanks to import substitution in modern stores in the Russian Federation, 80% of food is domestic and only 20% is foreign. Work is underway to develop domestic agriculture. By the end of 2017, a significant increase in grain crops is expected (over 100 million tons). The buckwheat harvest will also exceed expectations. However, special attention should be paid to the meat, dairy and vegetable industries. Prospects for the development of agriculture in these sectors provide forecasts for achieving the expected increase in 2-3 years, and only in the dairy sector - in 7-10 years. Already in 3-5 years, a complete transition to domestic trade in vegetables and fruits is expected.

2. Increasing the role of the state in the development of agriculture in Russia

Over the past decade, the prospects for agriculture in Russia have improved significantly, thanks to the growing role of the government in this sector of the economy. The agrarian reform of the State Program fixes the popularization of the state's actions to develop agriculture in the country:

Providing financial support for the agricultural industry with the participation of the regions.
Distribution and redistribution of income received.
Issuance of loans for agricultural needs within the framework of state support.
Agricultural insurance.

Producers of the agricultural industry, thus, can receive more than thirty types of state support. The main emphasis is on subsidizing part of the interest on lending for the long term, as well as providing per hectare assistance.

Among other things, the Government of the Russian Federation has developed a number of innovations for the development of agriculture for novice farmers: a grant for the creation of farmland, which includes 1.5 million rubles and 300 thousand rubles for household equipment, as well as the issuance of subsidies for investment loans and part of the down payment leasing of agricultural machinery.

Many banks, such as Rosselkhozbank, are also actively involved in supporting the development of agriculture in the country by developing new lines of financial products. If you are the owner of a small or medium business, you can apply for an annual loan at a reduced rate - from 15.95%. At the same time, the loan portfolio of Rosselkhozbank in the period from 2014 to 2015 jumped by 13.2% and is now more than 1.5 million rubles.

The prospects for the development of agriculture in the Russian Federation depend mainly on loans. At the present stage, the problem of lack of investment in the long term remains unresolved.

3. Attracting investments

As we mentioned above, the problem of attracting investment in the development of agriculture is the main one at the present stage of the work of the agro-industrial complex. Since the majority of agricultural enterprises have a low level of income, there are very, very few people who want to invest in the development of agriculture in the Russian Federation. However, attracting investments can be positively affected by the fact of subsidizing export enterprises and industries such as pig breeding, greenhouse vegetable growing, and seed production.

2017, according to experts, will be favorable for investing in dairy products (in particular cheese), pork, poultry, and fish. However, do not forget about the risks of financial investments.

The Government of the Russian Federation manages to attract investors to the development of agriculture through a number of active measures. For example, 20% of the amount spent on capital construction is returned to the investor. Thus, investors in the vegetable growing industry will be able to return their 20% this year. In 2017, it is planned to allocate a sum of money in the amount of 16 billion rubles for the implementation of this idea.

The average payback period for investments in the development of agriculture in Russia is 5 years.

4. Development of own scientific base and technological effectiveness of the industry

Perhaps one of the fundamental factors for improving the prospects for the development of agriculture in the country is the provision of the agro-industrial complex with highly qualified specialists. In this regard, the state is trying to actively support agricultural universities. To date, 54 agricultural universities are engaged in the education of specialists in the field of the agricultural industry on the territory of the Russian Federation. Every year they produce 25 thousand finished frames.

At the present stage of development of agriculture in the country, the identification of the necessary innovations in the agricultural sector is analyzed: experiments in the field of breeding and genetic engineering. Also, absolutely new species of flora and fauna are being created, which have better viability and productive qualities.

Do not forget about the development of feed production and veterinary industries.

5. Development of farming

According to statistics, there are 355,000 agricultural producers operating in the Russian Federation, most of which are individual entrepreneurs and small organizations. The Association of Peasant (Farmer) Enterprises and Agricultural Cooperatives of Russia found that 38% of the entire rural population is very interested in the development of farming.

The question arises: is it possible for farmers to appear in our country? Of course available. And there is strong evidence for this. So, for example, the Oryol region is at the present stage of development of agriculture the most popular in this area: 90% of the land is allocated for the agro-industrial complex. At the same time, more than 300 thousand people live in villages, which is 40% of the total population of the Oryol region. Private farms are the main target of the prospects for the development of agriculture in the country.

Practitioner tells

Tatyana Antipenko, editor-in-chief of the portal Agro.ru, Moscow

On July 1, 2017, the law prohibiting the cultivation and breeding of genetically modified plants and animals in our country comes into force. Exception: cases when it is done for scientific purposes.

As early as January 1, 2016, a new GOST came into force - “Products of organic production. Rules of production, storage, transportation. In addition, a new unified food labeling standard has emerged. This will change the perception of the population about the quality of domestic products for the better.

There is already a craving for Russian products; this can be considered one of the manifestations of the growth of patriotic sentiments. The desire to eat healthy food is gaining popularity. The growing demand is supported by the opening online stores of farm products. However, in such a short period of time, consumers are unlikely to change their minds about local producers.

Distrust of inspection systems is firmly planted in the minds of Russians. In addition, we have not formed a clear understanding of the difference between organic products, the quality of which is confirmed by a certificate, and farm products. Agricultural producers have to carry out serious propaganda work to convince buyers that Russian products are not inferior in quality to imported ones.